White Sox/Angels ALCS Thread - Page 31

darkhorse · 10-19-2005, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remangiii

I'm referring to the turnaround at the end of the 2002 season, when he suddenly started taking walks at the minor league level).

If only this were true. Roberts wasn't averse to the free pass at any minor league level.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-roberts.shtml

mlyons · 10-19-2005, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remangiii

It means that I don't think Roberts is much better than he was in 2004*, regardless of where he ranks on the VORP charts for 2005.

* In 2004, he was one of the better players at an extremely weak position and has no special talents other than the good fortune of being shifted from SS to 2B, because of his weak arm and his inability to be more desirable than other options. I will credit him for turning his career around after it looked like he'd be nothing more than a bum bench player (I'm referring to the turnaround at the end of the 2002 season, when he suddenly started taking walks at the minor league level).

So you weren't joking? No offense, but that's kind of insane. A .314/.387/.515 season is a great season no matter what position you're playing, and better by an extraordinarily large margin than his .278/.344/.402 2004 season. He's gone from being a pretty good player to being one of the top 10 hitters in the AL. If you don't think it's sustainable, that's understandable, especially on a team Brady Anderson once hit 50 homers for, but give him credit for the phenomenal season he had this year, would you?

Joshv02 · 10-19-2005, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

So you weren't joking? No offense, but that's kind of insane. A .314/.387/.515 season is a great season no matter what position you're playing, and better by an extraordinarily large margin than his .278/.344/.402 2004 season. He's gone from being a pretty good player to being one of the top 10 hitters in the AL. If you don't think it's sustainable, that's understandable, especially on a team Brady Anderson once hit 50 homers for, but give him credit for the phenomenal season he had this year, would you?

I think most people believe he had two seasons: pre and post AS break.

Code:

.345	.416	.591
.274	.351	.419

Of course, the AS break isn't some magical end point in the data, but it puts in easy contrast the full season Roberts really had.

mlyons · 10-19-2005, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

I think most people believe he had two seasons: pre and post AS break.

Code:

.345	.416	.591
.274	.351	.419

Of course, the AS break isn't some magical end point in the data, but it puts in easy contrast the full season Roberts really had.

So, Rem was hibernating during the first half of the season, then, right? Because that's the only reason I can think of that he would think the first half of the season didn't actually happen.

Joshv02 · 10-19-2005, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

So, Rem was hibernating during the first half of the season, then, right? Because that's the only reason I can think of that he would think the first half of the season didn't actually happen.

Hmm, I recall him mentioning over and over and over and over and over how the O's were in first place, so I guess he was awake.

rem · 10-19-2005, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

So, Rem was hibernating during the first half of the season, then, right? Because that's the only reason I can think of that he would think the first half of the season didn't actually happen.

I'd actually rather the second half of the season didn't happen, since the Orioles were kind of kicking ass and taking names then while we lost about 2/3rds of our games in the second half.

Honestly, the entire first half of the season seems like some sort of alternate reality which never really happened. I haven't liked Baseball or sports that long, and between the Orioles and the Redskins I've never really rooted for a winning team (save for the '99 skins and my bandwagon UMD Terp fan status) so the whole winning thing is foreign; the whole first half just seems like some sort of mirage – Bedard, Roberts, and even Tejada, were a lot better than they'd ever been or probably will ever be again.

Roberts had a great season, sure. He was hitting everything out for a few months, but then he really sucked in July and August before bouncing back in September.

I just can't get excited about it, because I didn't think it was “real” then or now. Fluke seasons are littered throughout the history of the game. Roberts reminds me more of Davey Johnson's 1973 season than anything else – granted Johnson was a lot better that year and had/will have a better career on the whole.

rem · 10-19-2005, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Hmm, I recall him mentioning over and over and over and over and over how the O's were in first place, so I guess he was awake.

mlyons · 10-19-2005, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remangiii

I just can't get excited about it, because I didn't think it was “real” then or now. Fluke seasons are littered throughout the history of the game. Roberts reminds me more of Davey Johnson's 1973 season than anything else – granted Johnson was a lot better that year and had/will have a better career on the whole.

Fluke season or not, it was still a hell of a lot better than Scott Podsednik has ever even dreamed of being. Even his mediocre (according to you) 2004 season was better than Podsednik this year.

rem · 10-19-2005, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Fluke season or not, it was still a hell of a lot better than Scott Podsednik has ever even dreamed of being. Even his mediocre (according to you) 2004 season was better than Podsednik this year.

Podsednik had a .290 EQA a couple years ago; Roberts was at .306 this year. Roberts' mark is a lot better, but I think its something that Podsednik could dream of.

He is pretty much the sux now, however. It's amazing how much media attention he gets, a lot like Darin Erstad. So yeah, Roberts is substantially better than him overall.

Luis_Rivera · 10-19-2005, 09:19 PM

I think that the thing that gives Brian Roberts hope that you don't see when you look at Davey Johnson's flukey 1973 is the fact that Roberts is just 25, while Johson was 30.

That being said, the two biggest indicators of a fluky season are where most of the value comes from a higher BABIP and a spike in total bases. These are the two least sustainable abilities from fluke/spike seasons for whatever reason.

Brian's value came from just that... his K and BB rates remained pretty much static (these are the most sustainable improvements, FYI) but his BABIP was a very high .343 (although, he should have an above average BABIP because he hits a lot of line drives FWIW), and the rest of the increase in value came from a career high 7 triples and 18 HR. He's not likely to reach these totals next year. Again, you can't rule out any possibility... especially when we're talking about a 25 year old, but it's not likely.

He's a very good second sacker... and should be for years to come barring the injury effecting him long term. I'd expect him to regress pretty heavily next year, but he'll still be above average.

rem · 10-19-2005, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I think that the thing that gives Brian Roberts hope that you don't see when you look at Davey Johnson's flukey 1973 is the fact that Roberts is just 25, while Johson was 30.

According to BBRef, and everything I've known about him, Roberts turned 28 a few days ago. Otherwise, I'd be more excited about his season.

Thanks for the analysis, all the same.

Luis_Rivera · 10-19-2005, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remangiii

According to BBRef, and everything I've known about him, Roberts turned 28 a few days ago. Otherwise, I'd be more excited about his season.

Thanks for the analysis, all the same.

Ha... no ****? I didn't double check myself... I could have sworn I saw him at age 25 earlier this year when I looked up his #'s. That'll teach me to be so goddamn sure of myself, eh?

Anyway... so, uh, yea... I agree with you rem... I'd say almost definitely a bigtime fluke year based on what I wrote above.

rem · 10-19-2005, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Ha... no ****? I didn't double check myself... I could have sworn I saw him at age 25 earlier this year when I looked up his #'s. That'll teach me to be so goddamn sure of myself, eh?

Anyway... so, uh, yea... I agree with you rem... I'd say almost definitely a bigtime fluke year based on what I wrote above.

No worries, it can happen to anyone.

eriqjaffe · 10-20-2005, 09:26 AM

Regardless of your feelings about Podsednik as a leadoff hitter or a left fielder (not his natural position, BTW, he played CF for the Brewers. I don't know about his minor-league years, but this is the first time he's had any significant amount of time in left, so he was essentially learning a new position during the year)...

White Sox + Scott Podsednik >>>>>> White Sox - Scott Podsednik

One thing to bear in mind is that he is, by far, the best leadoff hitter on the White Sox. He's not a power hitter, and he doesn't have to be. His job is to hit singles and steal bases, and he does his job. Yes, his SB% was significantly lower (51.7%) over the second half, but he spent the entire second half battling a groin injury - before then, he had swiped 83% of the bases he had tried (44 out of 53).

And I'm quite happy with his post-season line so far - .286/.459/.959. Not too shabby when it counts, eh?

JDOldSchool · 10-20-2005, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

Regardless of your feelings about Podsednik as a leadoff hitter or a left fielder (not his natural position, BTW, he played CF for the Brewers. I don't know about his minor-league years, but this is the first time he's had any significant amount of time in left, so he was essentially learning a new position during the year)...

But he was one of the worst defensive CFs in baseball. He moved to an easier position. I don't see how this is a bad thing.

Quote:

White Sox + Scott Podsednik >>>>>> White Sox - Scott Podsednik

Let's examine this statement. I agree with you completely, but that's just because Podsednik's backup batted like he was ******ed this year. Timo Perez has the 2nd worst VORP of all Major League OFs this year. The only guy worse was Corey Patterson. Timo Perez is not a major leaguer. Scott Podsednik is a solid backup. Congratulations, Scott Podsednik. You're the tallest midget.

The problem is Carlos Lee > Scott Podsednik (and Luis Vizcaino).

Oh, and that "Trading Carlos freed up money to sign other guys" thing is only half-true anyway. They still could've signed everybody they did, kept Lee, and their payroll would've been something like $4 million more than it was last year.

And they would've won more games.

Quote:

And I'm quite happy with his post-season line so far - .286/.459/.959. Not too shabby when it counts, eh?

Sample Size.

Sublimity · 10-20-2005, 03:59 PM

Wow, JD, did Pods run up to your house and beat the crap out of your dog one day?

IatricSB · 10-20-2005, 04:12 PM

White Sox World Series Appearances:

w/ Carlos Lee, 0 for 6
w/ Podsednik, 1 for 1

Lee may be the better player, but hard to argue the end results.

Sublimity · 10-20-2005, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IatricSB

White Sox World Series Appearances:

w/ Carlos Lee, 0 for 6
w/ Podsednik, 1 for 1

Lee may be the better player, but hard to argue the end results.

This is the most logical thing I have ever seen in my entire life.

QuestGAV · 10-20-2005, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

He's not a power hitter, and he doesn't have to be. His job is to get on base as often as possible and get to second base if he can, and he's pretty mediocre at his job because he doesn't walk or hit many doubles.

Fixed that for you. A stolen base is just a double for people who can't hit.

Sublimity · 10-20-2005, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

A double is just a hit for people who can't hit home runs.

Wouldn't that follow logically?

How about:

Quote:

A walk is just a single for people who know the strike zone.

Quote:

A strikeout is just an out for pitchers who can't induce double plays.

Quote:

An assist is just an out for people who can't get put outs.

10-20-2005, 09:26 AM	#614
eriqjaffe Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: Under The Christmas Fish Posts: 7,731	Regardless of your feelings about Podsednik as a leadoff hitter or a left fielder (not his natural position, BTW, he played CF for the Brewers. I don't know about his minor-league years, but this is the first time he's had any significant amount of time in left, so he was essentially learning a new position during the year)... White Sox + Scott Podsednik >>>>>> White Sox - Scott Podsednik One thing to bear in mind is that he is, by far, the best leadoff hitter on the White Sox. He's not a power hitter, and he doesn't have to be. His job is to hit singles and steal bases, and he does his job. Yes, his SB% was significantly lower (51.7%) over the second half, but he spent the entire second half battling a groin injury - before then, he had swiped 83% of the bases he had tried (44 out of 53). And I'm quite happy with his post-season line so far - .286/.459/.959. Not too shabby when it counts, eh? __________________

10-20-2005, 03:59 PM	#616
Sublimity Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: This thread. Posts: 3,199	Wow, JD, did Pods run up to your house and beat the crap out of your dog one day? __________________ mrs ria: I hereby dub Sublimity the Glorious Upholder of the 5B3. Current leading vote-getter in the Worst Poster in OT History poll.

10-20-2005, 04:12 PM	#617
IatricSB Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: California Posts: 3,493	White Sox World Series Appearances: w/ Carlos Lee, 0 for 6 w/ Podsednik, 1 for 1 Lee may be the better player, but hard to argue the end results. __________________ Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body; but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming, "Wow! What a Ride!" Chicago(N) - Boys of Summer Oakland - 20th Century League Bakersfield - Wild Things Brooklyn - QBA Dodge City - NBSL California - ABC Dodger's Senioriest fan on the OOTP Boards

10-19-2005, 09:19 PM	#610
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	I think that the thing that gives Brian Roberts hope that you don't see when you look at Davey Johnson's flukey 1973 is the fact that Roberts is just 25, while Johson was 30. That being said, the two biggest indicators of a fluky season are where most of the value comes from a higher BABIP and a spike in total bases. These are the two least sustainable abilities from fluke/spike seasons for whatever reason. Brian's value came from just that... his K and BB rates remained pretty much static (these are the most sustainable improvements, FYI) but his BABIP was a very high .343 (although, he should have an above average BABIP because he hits a lot of line drives FWIW), and the rest of the increase in value came from a career high 7 triples and 18 HR. He's not likely to reach these totals next year. Again, you can't rule out any possibility... especially when we're talking about a 25 year old, but it's not likely. He's a very good second sacker... and should be for years to come barring the injury effecting him long term. I'd expect him to regress pretty heavily next year, but he'll still be above average.