The Hidden Rating Question (again) - Page 3

RonCo · 04-18-2006, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgecharger1968

I remember somebody once saying that they found players with more inconsistency win more weekly/monthly awards when they examined records from their sololeagues. I certainly feel like there is a fairly strong effect from this label from my own experience, too. What I'd really like to know about is injury rating. Does it correlate to anything? At all?

I just did a quick data pull consitency and Batter of the Week awards. It's a count of all awards won by all active players throughout their careers, categorized by their consistency ratings - cross-indexed by the consistency ratings of the entire population. The league has been running for 22 seasons, so it has a number of award opportunites (N = 442). What I see shows little-to-no relation between consistency and such awards. I chi-square would give us a better number, but just an eyeball tells me any relationship is slight at best, and if anything, players of high consistency win the most awards.

Code:

Consistency 
		Good	Average	Incon
		----	----	----
Population	1554	524	485
		60.6%	20.4%	18.9%
POW		288	70	84
		65.2%	15.8%	19.0%

RonCo · 04-18-2006, 10:03 PM

Some injury data from v5 that I pulled together tonight. I'm assuming the injury code didn't change between versions, but treat it for what it's worth:

Code:

Career Ending Injuries:

7 Years of Injury Data (v5)
26 Total Career Ending Injuries (4.3/year)

Positions:
----------
4 OF
2 Catchers
1 SS
19 Pitchers

Injury Ratings:
---------------
Prone : 3
Normal: 23
Durable: 0

Organization Level:
-------------------
Major = 13
AAA = 5
AA = 3
A = 5

Ages:
-----
18: 1
20: 1
21: 1
25: 1
26: 4
27: 3
28: 2
29: 5
30: 2
31: 1
32: 2
33: 1
34: 1
36: 1

Teams:
-------
1 team had 4 players receive CEIs
6 teams had 2 each
10 teams had one each
19 teams had no CEIs

RonCo · 04-18-2006, 10:03 PM

Code:

Season Ending Injuries:

7 Years of Injury Data (v5)
196 Season Ending Injuries (28/year)

Positions:
P: 108
C: 16
1B: 7
2B: 20
3B: 5
SS: 7
LF: 12
CF: 14
RF: 7

Injury Ratings:
--------------
Prone : 39
Normal: 156
Durable: 1

Organization Level:
-------------------
Major = 59
AAA = 38
AA = 26
A = 40

Ages: *
SEI     	Age
----------	---
4		18
5		19
6		20
12		21
10		22
8		23
10		24
16		25
14		26
14		27
9		28
18		29
19		30
16		31
11		32
10		33
7		34
3		35
1		36
2		37
* Occurances rise until a peak of age 30, then fall off quickly.


Time of Year: *
Week	SEI
----	---------
1	5
2	4
3	10
4	9
5	12
6	6
7	6
8	7
9	8
10	0
11	4
12	6
13	4
14	5
15	0
16	9
17	3
18	5
19	7
20	6
21	7
22	5
23	8
24	5
25	1
26	4
27	0
28	5
29	1

* Linear trend line says season-ending injuries occur twice as often toward the beginning of a season as at the end of one.


Teams:
SE I	# Teams
----	-----------
0	1
1	3	
2	2
3	4
4	4
5	3
6	4
7	7
8	4
9	2
10	0
11	2

RonCo · 04-18-2006, 10:06 PM

Not sure what to make of all the data yet, but the bottom line is that durable players don't appear to be nearly as subject to career or season-ending injuries. There's not enough here to say if prone players are more susceptible than normal players.

RonCo · 04-18-2006, 10:11 PM

Deleted due to redundancy.

mrbill · 04-19-2006, 12:18 AM

RonCo, it would be good to see the ratio of Prone to Normal to Durable players in the league, to see if those % match up or are different to who actually suffered those injuries.

Is that available?

RonCo · 04-19-2006, 06:16 AM

It's available, and I'll plan on getting it. But it's not quickly available.

Malleus Dei · 04-19-2006, 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Hmm....looked on my hard drive and can't find my study. I'll see if I can recreate it tomorrow. I ran it through some statistitcal software I don't have access to right now.

And then the dog ate it?

RonCo · 04-19-2006, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

It's available, and I'll plan on getting it. But it's not quickly available.

Actually, I'm just an idiot. Prone/Normal/Durable is easily available. I'll post it when I get back home.

RonCo · 04-19-2006, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

And then the dog ate it?

Don't have a dog. But my cat goes through a lot of litter...maybe it got shredded.

Malleus Dei · 04-19-2006, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Don't have a dog. But my cat goes through a lot of litter...maybe it got shredded.

Or your wife could have got to them...

"Oh, those papers? They were all in disarray and were covered in scribbled notes, and you had spilled tea on them, so I threw them out."

mbd · 04-20-2006, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcgsports

They must exist based on all the seasons that
I have run
The .690 and .960 OPS are perfect example

Anyone know why mcgsports got banned or if he has a new alias? We were PMing about a study I was doing on hidden ratings and I need his data. I'll post my data (which indicates to p=.05 that there are hidden ratings) but he said he had been simming for weeks and had much more data than I did.

mbd · 04-20-2006, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Actually, I'm just an idiot. Prone/Normal/Durable is easily available. I'll post it when I get back home.

Bump.

ELDoro · 04-20-2006, 08:35 AM

i agree with Bobble's post on the first page

bp_ · 04-20-2006, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbd

Anyone know why mcgsports got banned or if he has a new alias? We were PMing about a study I was doing on hidden ratings and I need his data. I'll post my data (which indicates to p=.05 that there are hidden ratings) but he said he had been simming for weeks and had much more data than I did.

You mean he does stuff other than post cryptic messages?

blgoblue2 · 04-20-2006, 11:13 AM

Just find who is behind the alias. Shouldn't be a problem.

RonCo · 04-20-2006, 04:46 PM

Here's the composite data on injury ratings I promised.

Code:

Injuries by Injury Ratings		
---------------	
	CEI	SEI	All Players*
Prone	3	39	342
Normal	23	156	2091
Durable	0	1	106

	26	196	2539

	CEI	SEI	All Players
Prone	11.5%	19.9%	13.5%
Normal	88.5%	79.6%	82.4%
Durable	0.0%	0.5%	4.2%

* Does not include players who retired, so some error is
possible if players who retired had abnormal injury rating
distributions.

RonCo · 04-20-2006, 04:51 PM

Dola...

The above suggests to me that "durable" injury ratings appear to influence the CEI/SEI. Prone players appear to suffer a disproportionally large number of Season-Ending Injuries. The sample size of Career Ending injuries (26 total) may be too small to draw any real conclusions from.

mrbill · 04-20-2006, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Dola...

The above suggests to me that "durable" injury ratings appear to influence the CEI/SEI. Prone players appear to suffer a disproportionally large number of Season-Ending Injuries. The sample size of Career Ending injuries (26 total) may be too small to draw any real conclusions from.

That's pretty good, confirms that Injury rating matters, but interestingly that suggests injury prone players are only twice as likely as normal to have a SEI.

I'm sure its a lot of work, not sure what you're using to get the injury data, but can you total up any injury resulting in being "OUT" for any period of time split up by injury rating?

RonCo · 04-20-2006, 09:03 PM

It's a database of something over 4300 injuries in a 36-team online league that I hack and slice around a bit. Give me a day and I can cut it a few ways and see what comes out.

And yes, it was a lot of work to get. I wrote a custom script to capture a data snapshot off the exporter after every sim, then another to compile it into a format I could use. After every season, I run another process that adds the new season's data to it.

But now that I've got it, it's not too hard to play with.

04-18-2006, 10:11 PM	#45
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Deleted due to redundancy. Last edited by RonCo; 04-18-2006 at 10:12 PM.

04-19-2006, 12:18 AM	#46
mrbill All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: LA, CA Posts: 982	RonCo, it would be good to see the ratio of Prone to Normal to Durable players in the league, to see if those % match up or are different to who actually suffered those injuries. Is that available? __________________ UBL - Best Online League Evar! - Los Angeles Dodgers: 25 seasons, 13 NL West titles, 4 WC, 8 NL Titles, 5-time Champs LBB v5 league (retired) - Detroit Tigers/Commish: 19 seasons, 18 straight AL Central titles, 2006, 2008, 2014, 2015 Champs! NGBL v6 league (dead) - Texas Rangers: 10 seasons, 4 AL South titles, 2 Wild Cards, one WS app

04-20-2006, 08:35 AM	#54
ELDoro All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 535	i agree with Bobble's post on the first page __________________ MLNB Commish: https://statsplus.net/mlnb/

04-18-2006, 10:06 PM	#44
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Not sure what to make of all the data yet, but the bottom line is that durable players don't appear to be nearly as subject to career or season-ending injuries. There's not enough here to say if prone players are more susceptible than normal players.

04-19-2006, 06:16 AM	#47
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	It's available, and I'll plan on getting it. But it's not quickly available.

04-20-2006, 11:13 AM	#56
blgoblue2 Banned Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Walled Lake, Michigan Member #13775 Posts: 886	Just find who is behind the alias. Shouldn't be a problem.

04-20-2006, 04:51 PM	#58
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Dola... The above suggests to me that "durable" injury ratings appear to influence the CEI/SEI. Prone players appear to suffer a disproportionally large number of Season-Ending Injuries. The sample size of Career Ending injuries (26 total) may be too small to draw any real conclusions from.

04-20-2006, 09:03 PM	#60
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	It's a database of something over 4300 injuries in a 36-team online league that I hack and slice around a bit. Give me a day and I can cut it a few ways and see what comes out. And yes, it was a lot of work to get. I wrote a custom script to capture a data snapshot off the exporter after every sim, then another to compile it into a format I could use. After every season, I run another process that adds the new season's data to it. But now that I've got it, it's not too hard to play with.