Who would you want starting in Right Field? - Page 3

Jason Moyer · 08-19-2003, 09:37 AM

I should note that I'm not trying to argue Ichiro is overrated (altho he is slightly), but more that Abreu is underrated. Ichiro deserves to make the All-Star team and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting every year... I just think the same holds true for Abreu, who is for all intents and purposes his equal (he has an edge of 2 win shares over Ichiro this year, for instance, which is really too small to have any meaning when doing a player-to-player comparison). My argument is more "Abreu is underrated" and not "Ichiro is overrated". They're both B+ ballplayers if I were to assign a rating system.

Actually, since this is an OOTP5 forum, I'd dole out the stars like this (based on 2003 performance):

5 stars: Bonds, Pujols
4.5 stars: Sheffield, Helton, Delgado, B Boone, Giambi
4 stars: Garciaparra, Lopez, Lowell, M Giles, Abreu, A Jones, Loaiza, A Rodriguez, Beltran, M Ramirez, I Rodriguez

Jason

Skipaway · 08-19-2003, 10:06 AM

Too bad the Braves ran away with the division title too early and too far away. If Phillies are in Central or West, they'd be much near the top, and the press would actually spend some more time talking about them. With all the pre-season hype, Phillies are somewhat considered disappointing. As the team not going exactly smoothly, sure people won't notice Abreu much. He's not all that special in the traditional triple crown stats anyway. Brian Giles at least got those going for him. Without further check, some probably consider Abreu similar to Dmitri Young: .300BA 20HR 80RBI, which is of course ridiculous.

And I do have a problem with your star ratings. The OOTP rating system does take position into consideration, which would not fit your rating on Garciaparra, ARod, and IRod.

Maze&Blue · 08-19-2003, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
I should note that I'm not trying to argue Ichiro is overrated (altho he is slightly), but more that Abreu is underrated. Ichiro deserves to make the All-Star team and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting every year... I just think the same holds true for Abreu, who is for all intents and purposes his equal

Good glad to hear that.

The only reason, like I said, I pick Ichiro is because theres so few actual leadoff man.

And of course all Ichiro's intangibles

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Abreu is underrated.

If you want to talk underrated, you have to talk about Garrett Anderson.

Jason Moyer · 08-19-2003, 12:25 PM

He's not as clutch as Abreu and Ichiro are.

(That and a career high of 34 walks and a career OBP/SLG of .328/.481).

Jason

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
He's not as clutch as Abreu and Ichiro are.

(That and a career high of 34 walks and a career OBP/SLG of .328/.481).

Jason

Please don't shake my faith in the sports media.

draven085 · 08-19-2003, 12:28 PM

Has anyone noticed what an impact Matsui is having?

Jason Moyer · 08-19-2003, 12:31 PM

He's having a damn fine year for a rookie, even if he is the same age as Abreu and Ichiro.

Unfortunately, 29 is past the normal peak age, so hopefully it's not all downhill from here.

Edit: Top 10 rookies through 8/10:

Hideki Matsui 14.47
Brandon Webb 13.62
Angel Berroa 12.49
Ty Wigginton 12.10
Dontrelle Willis 11.28
Rocco Baldelli 11.21
Scott Podsednik 10.29
Marlon Byrd 10.11
Jason Phillips 9.89
Mark Teixeira 9.28

Jason

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 12:49 PM

That Dontrelle Willis has got a funky windup.

draven085 · 08-19-2003, 12:53 PM

Ichrio 2-1 now. Unreal.

spleen1015 · 08-19-2003, 01:03 PM

Joe Orsulak

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by draven085
Ichrio 2-1 now. Unreal.

But this poll is flawed without Doug Glanville listed.

ctorg · 08-19-2003, 01:12 PM

Give me Mookie Wilson any day.

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ctorg
Give me Mookie Wilson any day.

Mookie was just a shadow of Omar Moreno.

Mariner and Giants Fan · 08-19-2003, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by draven085
I think this thread just goes to show that many(most?) baseball fans have no idea how to rate players. ESPN tells them how good Ichiro is so they believe it. I've slowly been introducing my father to sabremetrics and its painstaking sometimes. He is one of the biggest baseball fans I've ever known but sometimes he clings to the old school ways of evaluating players. I got him the New Historical Abstract for Christmas last year and he says he's been enjoying it, so that's a good start. The real mystery for me is how people can reject statistical analysis so completely. I would guess that its mostly ignorance and lack of familiarity with the work. Once you sink your teeth into the analysis I think its difficult to argue with most of its conclusions.

I disagree! I think this thread show's how stats do not tell a complete story about any player! This is a common mistake by many computer literate fan these days. Baseball is far more than about statistics. Yes stats are important but they are only part of the story. The intangibles makeup a great deal of a players success. Does a team with the most hits win every game? With the most strikeouts? Homers?

My Dad (bless his soul) used to say that "statistics are for losers". What he meant by that was that the only people interested in the statistics at the end of the day were not the ones who won the day!

I enjoy stats, I am an accountant because of my love for numbers! Yet I still understand that companies are far more than just the sum of their numbers!

People cannot not be quantified by numbers, whether it be their salary or net worth. Neither can baseball players be defined by just the statistics they produce!

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Does a team with the most hits win every game? With the most strikeouts? Homers?

Err, most runs?

Gastric ReFlux · 08-19-2003, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gastric ReFlux
Err, most runs?

Okay, how do we produce the most runs?

Start from there. That's the basic root of most sabremetric analysis.

draven085 · 08-19-2003, 01:45 PM

I am starting to think M & G fan is an alias.

ctorg · 08-19-2003, 01:47 PM

I'm going to avoid using the word "intangibles" because of its negative connotation. But...

Statistics don't ever actually prove anything. Interpretation of statistics can show support for one thing or another, but it is in the nature of statistics (and all numbers, for that matter) to simplify what is essentially a very complex series of events.

Just because Bill James (or anyone else) interprets numbers in a particular way doesn't mean that it is statistical proof. Stats can be manipulated to mean almost anything. Trust me, I work for a research group. Just keep that in mind when looking at stats.

That said, I do agree with most of what I've heard of Bill James' interpretations of the data.

Mariner and Giants Fan · 08-19-2003, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by draven085
I am starting to think M & G fan is an alias.

What does that (alias) mean? I don't think I'm one, unless it's a good thing, which I'm pretty sure it's not

View Poll Results: Who would you want starting in Right Field
Ichiro Suzuki	36	59.02%
Bobby Abreu	25	40.98%
Voters: 61. You may not vote on this poll

08-19-2003, 09:37 AM	#41
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	I should note that I'm not trying to argue Ichiro is overrated (altho he is slightly), but more that Abreu is underrated. Ichiro deserves to make the All-Star team and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting every year... I just think the same holds true for Abreu, who is for all intents and purposes his equal (he has an edge of 2 win shares over Ichiro this year, for instance, which is really too small to have any meaning when doing a player-to-player comparison). My argument is more "Abreu is underrated" and not "Ichiro is overrated". They're both B+ ballplayers if I were to assign a rating system. Actually, since this is an OOTP5 forum, I'd dole out the stars like this (based on 2003 performance): 5 stars: Bonds, Pujols 4.5 stars: Sheffield, Helton, Delgado, B Boone, Giambi 4 stars: Garciaparra, Lopez, Lowell, M Giles, Abreu, A Jones, Loaiza, A Rodriguez, Beltran, M Ramirez, I Rodriguez Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 08-19-2003 at 09:42 AM.

08-19-2003, 10:06 AM	#42
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	Too bad the Braves ran away with the division title too early and too far away. If Phillies are in Central or West, they'd be much near the top, and the press would actually spend some more time talking about them. With all the pre-season hype, Phillies are somewhat considered disappointing. As the team not going exactly smoothly, sure people won't notice Abreu much. He's not all that special in the traditional triple crown stats anyway. Brian Giles at least got those going for him. Without further check, some probably consider Abreu similar to Dmitri Young: .300BA 20HR 80RBI, which is of course ridiculous. And I do have a problem with your star ratings. The OOTP rating system does take position into consideration, which would not fit your rating on Garciaparra, ARod, and IRod. __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

08-19-2003, 12:25 PM	#45
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	He's not as clutch as Abreu and Ichiro are. (That and a career high of 34 walks and a career OBP/SLG of .328/.481). Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 08-19-2003 at 12:36 PM.

08-19-2003, 12:31 PM	#48
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	He's having a damn fine year for a rookie, even if he is the same age as Abreu and Ichiro. Unfortunately, 29 is past the normal peak age, so hopefully it's not all downhill from here. Edit: Top 10 rookies through 8/10: Hideki Matsui 14.47 Brandon Webb 13.62 Angel Berroa 12.49 Ty Wigginton 12.10 Dontrelle Willis 11.28 Rocco Baldelli 11.21 Scott Podsednik 10.29 Marlon Byrd 10.11 Jason Phillips 9.89 Mark Teixeira 9.28 Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 08-19-2003 at 12:36 PM.

08-19-2003, 12:28 PM	#47
draven085 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,074	Has anyone noticed what an impact Matsui is having?

08-19-2003, 12:49 PM	#49
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	That Dontrelle Willis has got a funky windup.

08-19-2003, 12:53 PM	#50
draven085 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,074	Ichrio 2-1 now. Unreal.

08-19-2003, 01:03 PM	#51
spleen1015 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,010	Joe Orsulak

08-19-2003, 01:12 PM	#53
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	Give me Mookie Wilson any day. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

08-19-2003, 01:45 PM	#58
draven085 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,074	I am starting to think M & G fan is an alias.

08-19-2003, 01:47 PM	#59
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	I'm going to avoid using the word "intangibles" because of its negative connotation. But... Statistics don't ever actually prove anything. Interpretation of statistics can show support for one thing or another, but it is in the nature of statistics (and all numbers, for that matter) to simplify what is essentially a very complex series of events. Just because Bill James (or anyone else) interprets numbers in a particular way doesn't mean that it is statistical proof. Stats can be manipulated to mean almost anything. Trust me, I work for a research group. Just keep that in mind when looking at stats. That said, I do agree with most of what I've heard of Bill James' interpretations of the data. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils