How to fix trading? - Page 3

pgjocki · 09-04-2024, 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutS|der

I wouldn't trade 10 unknowns for a known.

This 100%

jcard · 09-05-2024, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutS|der

From 2009 to 2018, a span of ten drafts, 47 percent of the position players selected by all MLB teams in the June draft ended up with a negative Wins Above Replacement (at best) in the majors. One in five position players picked in the first round (2009-18) have played fewer than 50 games in the big leagues.

Selecting pitchers has been almost as much of a crapshoot: in the ten June MLB Drafts from 2009 to 2018, 39 percent of pitching prospects either did not pitch in the big leagues or have produced negative WAR in the majors. A stunning 26 percent of pitchers picked in the first round have never pitched in the majors.

I wouldn't trade 10 unknowns for a known.

1. Absent more detail about the players from the OP, any conclusions based on a distinction between “top” and “random”, or between “known” and “unknown” quantities is speculative, presumptive, and mischaracterizing.

2. It would be interesting to see a compilation of international signee data based on (perhaps) financial commitment by the contracting team.

3. This discussion is a perfect example of the problems created by trying to use a single value to capture and express both a prospect’s upside and the volatility in his forecast.

4. In the past I have felt that the correlation between prospect ratings in the upper-minors and success (and the immediacy thereof) in the majors; In other words, top prospects close to the majors seem to attain instant success with inflated regularity and seamlessness.

Front Office Widget · 09-05-2024, 12:55 PM

It strikes me as a form of immaturity to believe that someone else (an AI manager) should accept a trade just because you think they should do it.

If you want the player so bad so as to give up 10 players for that player, then what makes you think the AI GM doesn't want the player even more?

Seems like it's time to accept that they don't want to trade you that Catcher and move on with your life.

The trade AI seems much improved on 25. It is much harder to fleece the AI, which is how it should be.

No GM just gets to have whatever player they want.

09-05-2024, 12:55 PM	#43
Front Office Widget Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2024 Posts: 11	It strikes me as a form of immaturity to believe that someone else (an AI manager) should accept a trade just because you think they should do it. If you want the player so bad so as to give up 10 players for that player, then what makes you think the AI GM doesn't want the player even more? Seems like it's time to accept that they don't want to trade you that Catcher and move on with your life. The trade AI seems much improved on 25. It is much harder to fleece the AI, which is how it should be. No GM just gets to have whatever player they want.