Orcin's Brave New World

[Orcin]

Free Agency Begins

Top 10 Free Agents (age shown as of April 2021):
• SP Jake Odorizzi (31/R, 2020 @ TBA: 18-14, 3.68, 245 IP, 253 K)
• 2B Jurickson Profar (28/S, 2020 @ TEX: .302/.372/.455)
• SP Max Hicks (30/R, 2020 @ MIA: 8-9, 3.82, 233 IP, 212 K)
• SP Taylor Guerrieri (28/R, 2020 @ MIL/BOS: 15-12, 3.78, 221 IP, 189 K)
• 3B David Wright (38/R, 2020 @ NYN: .282/.378/.454)
• C Alex Avila (34/L, 2020 @ TEX: .264/.362/.485)
• SS Corey Seager (27/L, 2020 @ LAN: .311/.350/.477)
• SP Mike Leake (34/R, 2020 @ CHN: 14-10, 3.22, 240 IP, 141 K)
• 2B Matt Cerda (31/L, 2020 @ KC: .293/.401/.399)
• 2B Jonathan Schoop (29/R, 2020 @ KC/TOR: .288/.342/.472)


Will Cardinals Make a Big Splash in Free Agency?

The best way to build confidence among the fans in my new town would be to land the top player in free agency. This idea aligns perfectly with my top priority action item:
• Pursue an ace pitcher in free agency

I removed the question mark from this action item, because I have decided to do it. I will need to trade CF Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to afford the top pitcher, and I believe that is the best approach. I have been convinced since day one that the Cardinals have too much of the salary budget devoted to position players.

Fortunately, I can pursue the two actions in parallel because I have the available budget until I commit to a contract extension for RF Oscar Taveras. I also have the flexibility to trade Bradley now, after the acquisition of CF Vance Knox.

The next question is… which pitcher? I don’t like Guerrieri’s injury history or Leake’s age, so it comes down to Jake Odorozzi or Max Hicks. Odorizzi is a year older and about 10% more expensive. It also appears to me that Odorizzi is about 10% better.

Key career stats:
Height: Odorizzi 6’2”, Hicks 5’ 11”
ERA/ ERA+: Odorizzi 3.48/125; Hicks 3.60/117
WHIP/BABIP: Odorizzi 1.17/.292; Hicks 1.26/.308
K/9: Odorizzi 9.2, Hicks 8.5
BB/9: Odorizzi 2.8, Hicks 2.9
K/BB: Odorizzi 3.3, Hicks 2.9
HR/9: Odorizzi 0.8, Hicks 0.8
FIP: Odorizzi 3.30, Hicks 3.49
Quality Starts: Odorizzi 64%, Hicks 62%
All-Star selections: Odorizzi 3, Hicks 0

It should come as no surprise that four teams (KC, NYN, HOU, SF) are rumored to be in on Odorizzi already, while Hicks has four different suitors (LAA, SEA, CHN, CLE). The competition will be fierce for these two pitchers. If a team loses on one, they will likely jump to the other. So I must act swiftly (before the Winter Meetings) and decisively (i.e. make my best offer and don’t nibble).

The average of the top five pitchers in baseball is $20M per year. Odorizzi is currently asking for 7 years, $133M ($19M/year). Hicks wants 7 years, $119M ($17M/years). The range for either of these two given the competition is likely at least six years and over $100M. Either will cost us our #1 pick in the 2021 draft.

[deandean1998]

double posted

[deandean1998]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Free Agency Begins

Top 10 Free Agents (age shown as of April 2021):
• SP Jake Odorizzi (31/R, 2020 @ TBA: 18-14, 3.68, 245 IP, 253 K)
• 2B Jurickson Profar (28/S, 2020 @ TEX: .302/.372/.455)
• SP Max Hicks (30/R, 2020 @ MIA: 8-9, 3.82, 233 IP, 212 K)
• SP Taylor Guerrieri (28/R, 2020 @ MIL/BOS: 15-12, 3.78, 221 IP, 189 K)
• 3B David Wright (38/R, 2020 @ NYN: .282/.378/.454)
• C Alex Avila (34/L, 2020 @ TEX: .264/.362/.485)
• SS Corey Seager (27/L, 2020 @ LAN: .311/.350/.477)
• SP Mike Leake (34/R, 2020 @ CHN: 14-10, 3.22, 240 IP, 141 K)
• 2B Matt Cerda (31/L, 2020 @ KC: .293/.401/.399)
• 2B Jonathan Schoop (29/R, 2020 @ KC/TOR: .288/.342/.472)


Will Cardinals Make a Big Splash in Free Agency?

The best way to build confidence among the fans in my new town would be to land the top player in free agency. This idea aligns perfectly with my top priority action item:
• Pursue an ace pitcher in free agency

I removed the question mark from this action item, because I have decided to do it. I will need to trade CF Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to afford the top pitcher, and I believe that is the best approach. I have been convinced since day one that the Cardinals have too much of the salary budget devoted to position players.

Fortunately, I can pursue the two actions in parallel because I have the available budget until I commit to a contract extension for RF Oscar Taveras. I also have the flexibility to trade Bradley now, after the acquisition of CF Vance Knox.

The next question is… which pitcher? I don’t like Guerrieri’s injury history or Leake’s age, so it comes down to Jake Odorozzi or Max Hicks. Odorizzi is a year older and about 10% more expensive. It also appears to me that Odorizzi is about 10% better.

Key career stats:
Height: Odorizzi 6’2”, Hicks 5’ 11”
ERA/ ERA+: Odorizzi 3.48/125; Hicks 3.60/117
WHIP/BABIP: Odorizzi 1.17/.292; Hicks 1.26/.308
K/9: Odorizzi 9.2, Hicks 8.5
BB/9: Odorizzi 2.8, Hicks 2.9
K/BB: Odorizzi 3.3, Hicks 2.9
HR/9: Odorizzi 0.8, Hicks 0.8
FIP: Odorizzi 3.30, Hicks 3.49
Quality Starts: Odorizzi 64%, Hicks 62%
All-Star selections: Odorizzi 3, Hicks 0

It should come as no surprise that four teams (KC, NYN, HOU, SF) are rumored to be in on Odorizzi already, while Hicks has four different suitors (LAA, SEA, CHN, CLE). The competition will be fierce for these two pitchers. If a team loses on one, they will likely jump to the other. So I must act swiftly (before the Winter Meetings) and decisively (i.e. make my best offer and don’t nibble).

The average of the top five pitchers in baseball is $20M per year. Odorizzi is currently asking for 7 years, $133M ($19M/year). Hicks wants 7 years, $119M ($17M/years). The range for either of these two given the competition is likely at least six years and over $100M. Either will cost us our #1 pick in the 2021 draft.

Can you look someone up for me? Justin Masterson? For some odd reason He always seems to be terrible in the game after year 1

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by deandean1998

Can you look someone up for me? Justin Masterson? For some odd reason He always seems to be terrible in the game after year 1

He was 59-70 with a 4.35 ERA. He didn't play last season and will probably retire.

[Orcin]

Trading Jackie Bradley Jr.

I could just shop him and see what the offers are, but I don’t really want to upset him (yet). Instead, I made a list of likely suitors and contacted them.

Red Sox: Mozeliak is their new scout. He signed Bradley in the first place and they have the #25-rated CF, so they were my first stop. Boston has some interest and the budget room to acquire him, but they don’t have much to trade that interests me.

Royals have no CF, but no budget room.
Braves have no CF, but no budget room.
Tigers have #28 CF, but no budget room.
Mets have #27 CF, but no budget room.
Nationals have #26 CF, but no budget room.
Yankees have #24 CF: They can afford him and are very interested.
Reds have #23 CF, but no budget room.
Rays have #22 CF, but no budget room.
Astros have #21 CF, but no budget room.
Brewers have #20 CF, but no budget room.

This is often the case early in the free agency cycle. Teams have offers out and their budget is tied up. I will keep checking with these teams, but especially the Yankees.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals News – December 2020

Cardinals Acquire Infielder Rios
Another item is checked off the list via this trade with the Brewers.
• Acquire/sign veteran middle infielder for the bench



Rios plays second and short and bats left, making him an ideal substitute for Wong and Crawford. He is solid defensively and makes good contact with a low strikeout total. He has another full year before reaching arbitration eligibility. Tilson was a non-prospect.


St. Louis Fired Up Over Signing of SP Odorizzi
As speculation mounted into the morning, rumors over a final agreement between Jake Odorizzi and St. Louis became a reality, with the star opting for a $114 million deal over 6 years ($19M/year). The Cardinals will forfeit their first-round draft pick in 2021 as a result of the signing. In his career, Odorizzi has racked up 92 wins and 62 losses and posted an ERA of 3.48. Fan interest in St. Louis increased significantly on the news.


Winter Meetings
The quest to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. continues during the meetings. There is interest around the league, but free agent offers constrain budgets and prevent the completion of a deal. The teams with the most interest so far are the Yankees and Blue Jays, but things can change quickly as offers come and go by the hour.


Bradley Jr. Goes to Rays for Bullpen Help
Another item comes off the action item list via this trade with the Rays:
• Add bullpen depth (dedicated relievers as opposed to excess starters)



Solis was with the Rays last season while Chambers came up at the end of the year. Chambers is projected to begin the year at Memphis (AAA). Both pitchers are former first-round draft picks. The biggest benefit of this deal is unloading Bradley’s contract, but I really needed the two arms that I got in return. Now I need to replace Bradley, and I have another few days here at the meetings to get it done.


>>> Updated Action Items
• Sign a contract extension with Oscar Taveras (negotiations in progress)
• Acquire a starting center fielder with strong defensive skills


Cardinals Add Almora to Outfield
Albert Almora is a Gold Glove center fielder (2019) with exceptional speed. The knock on him has been his lack of production at the plate. He can bat ninth for us, so he is a perfect fit. He had been waived from the Cubs secondary roster late last season, so he was fairly easy to obtain for a utility infielder with no options and two minor prospects.



Almora is affordable at $2M per year. He is arbitration-eligible again next season with a $2.3M estimate. This move pushes Knox back to the bench as the fourth outfielder, which is exactly where I want him.


$$$ Keeps Superstar Taveras in St. Louis
St. Louis fans celebrated as word of a signing became reality. Oscar Taveras won't be pulling up stakes anytime soon, as he has signed a 6-year extension at $19.5 million per annum. The total value of the contract is $3M more than the recent Odorizzi deal, making him the Cardinals highest-paid player in terms of AAV.


MLB News – December 2020
• Pittsburgh signed 3B David Wright for 2021 at $15M with a vesting option (135G) of $18M for 2022.
• Texas re-signed C Alex Avila for 3 years at $18M/year. The third year is a team option with a $2M buyout.
• Seattle signed 2B Jonathan Schoop to a 4-year contract worth $49M.
• Texas signed SP Mike Leake for 2 years at $14M per year.
• The Yankees signed 2B Jurickson Profar to a 5-year deal worth $83M.
• San Francisco signed 2B Matt Cerda to a 3-year contract worth $41M.
• Major free agents remaining: SP Max Hicks, SP Taylor Guerrieri, and SS Corey Seager.

Schoop and Cerda are good comps for Kolten Wong, i.e. 3 to 4 years at $12-14M/year.

[illeracula]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Albert Almora is a Gold Glove center fielder (2019) with exceptional speed. The knock on him has been his lack of production at the plate. He can bat ninth for us, so he is a perfect fit.

Bat 9th? The NL adopt the DH rule?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by illeracula

Bat 9th? The NL adopt the DH rule?

Yep.

Originally Posted by Orcin

2014 Season

NEWS: Prior to the season, the National League voted to adopt the designated hitter rule. The increase in interleague play that resulted from the new 6x5 format created a safety concern for pitchers, who were called upon to bat frequently but not regularly. The player’s union was opposed to abolition of the DH, so the only logical solution was for the National League to adopt the rule.

[pjh5165]

Are you actually playing with League Evo on or did you just decide to give a DH league a shot and edit it in manually?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by pjh5165

Are you actually playing with League Evo on or did you just decide to give a DH league a shot and edit it in manually?

League evolution is completely off. I made the decision myself. I don't want the hassle of going back and forth, i.e. DH for one series and not the next. It's just not fun for me to play that way.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals News – January 2021

January is traditionally a slow month. I am looking at a couple of cheaper free agents for my bullpen, and watching the waiver wire closely for players that could make our team. I have also begun to look at younger minor league free agents.


Cardinals Sign Montgomery for Bullpen
St. Louis added well-traveled closer Mark Montgomery to their bullpen for next season. Montgomery agreed to a one-year contract for $3 million. He has appeared in 477 games over his career, with 72 saves and a 3.27 ERA. He has 724 Ks in 526 innings pitched (12.4 K/9) and a 3.3 K/BB ratio. The Cardinals intend to use Montgomery as the setup man for closer Rex Brothers.


MLB News – January 2021
• Former Red Sox 1B Prince Fielder signed with Colorado. The 36-year-old Fielder will receive $33M over 3 years from the Rockies.
• Tampa Bay replaced free agent Jake Odorizzi with SP Max Hicks, formerly with Miami. Hicks will get $83M over 5 years. (I think this is a bargain contract.)
• Miami replaced free agent Max Hicks with SP Taylor Guerrieri at 6 years, $96M.
• Arizona signed free agent SS Corey Seager to a 6-year contract worth $105M.

[gehrig38]

The Bradley trade was a good one, offloading that contract too.
I really like the way you are posting the screens of the trades, enjoy following that way.
Sun Devils are in a bit of a hiatus My model room is complete and I am back to building again
But I am moving into the 2039 off season this week and since it's the 2040 season the third HOF inductions, which I hear is going to be a very large class.
Good luck, go BUCS!!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by gehrig38

I really like the way you are posting the screens of the trades, enjoy following that way.

You should like it. I stole the idea from you.

[gehrig38]

That's like Yoda snatching the pebble from Luke's hand....

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals 2021 Pre-Season

The Cardinals had the #1 off-season with a net gain of 7.9 WAR value. All of the action items from last November have been checked off. Spring training will settle a few things including the composition of the pitching staff. The bench jobs will likely come down to the last minute after a long look at the waiver wire on cut-down day.


Spring Training Summary
• Trey Michalczewski strained his hamstring on March 9 and will miss 6 weeks. He was placed on the 15-day D/L.
• Oscar Taveras strained his back on March 17 and was listed as day-to-day (-25%) for 7-10 days. He sat out most of the rest of spring training as a precaution.
• J.P. Crawford pulled a groin muscle on March 20 and will be sidelined 5-6 weeks. He was placed on the 15-day D/L. Hector Rios will be the opening day shortstop.


Opening Day Active Roster Decisions
The pitching staff decisions were complicated by players with no minor league options.

Starters (11 on 40-man roster, 7 on active roster)
Locks: Odorizzi, Perdomo, Pineda, Hald, Rosenthal, Wacha, Lamb
Option to AAA: Flores
Waive & DFA: Jenkins, Salazar, Sheffield
Rosenthal made the rotation with a great spring. Jenkins and Salazar will be shopped.

Bullpen (8 on 40-man roster, 5 on active roster)
Locks: Brothers (closer), Montgomery (setup), Solis, Reyes, Miller
Option to AAA: Chambers, Lawrence
Waive & DFA: Moreno

Catcher: (3 on 40-man roster, 2 on active roster)
Locks: Alfaro, Bean
Option to AAA: Ice

Infield: (8 on 40-man roster, 5 on active roster)
Locks: Snyder, Wong, Jones, Rios, Griffin
Waive & DFA: M. Adams
15-day D/L: Michalczewski, Crawford
I must acquire more infield depth, either via trade or waiver claim (or both).

Outfield/DH: (9 on 40-man roster, 6 on active roster)
Locks: Sano, Deol, Almora, Taveras, Knox, You
Option to AAA: Sharp, J. Adams
Waive & DFA: Woods (will shop him first)

Snyder or You (not you – the reader, but rather Min-Zhong You – the outfielder) will need to go when T-Mick returns. I hate to think that it might be You. I would miss the announcer saying, “You is out!”


Salazar Traded to Kansas City for SS Navarro
Infield depth is a priority need. Salazar was going to be waived tomorrow. I suspect Cris Navarro would have been also, since he is out of options. Navarro is a 26-year-old slick fielding utility infielder with some pop from the right side. He is also an excellent fielder at both shortstop and second base. Navarro will stay on the roster and Griffin will be optioned to AAA.


Cardinals Waive Five Players on Opening Day
The following players were waived in order to get the active roster down to 25 men: SP Tyrell Jenkins, SP Jordan Sheffield, MR Pascual Moreno, 1B Matt Adams, and RF K.J. Woods. The 40-man roster now stands at 34 players, and the player payroll is $144M (#5 in MLB). This is $4M over my personal target and slightly under the owner’s budget.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

St. Louis Cardinals 2021 Pre-Season
Snyder or You (not you – the reader, but rather Min-Zhong You – the outfielder) will need to go when T-Mick returns. I hate to think that it might be You. I would miss the announcer saying, “You is out!”

But Sal would get the headache from the consistently incorrect grammar. "You is up to bat." No, no, no, Sal would yell at himself. You are up to bat. But, of course, the play-by-play man would be correct. And incorrect at the same time. This confuses Sal. Hence the headache. Sal thinks it is far better if You is dismissed. If You are dismissed. Is. Are. Is. Are.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Sal thinks it is far better if You is dismissed. If You are dismissed. Is. Are. Is. Are.

You don't want me dismissed, do you? Oh, you mean You. Oh, never mind.

[SpaceMonkey13]

Originally Posted by Orcin

St. Louis Cardinals 2021 Pre-Season

The Cardinals had the #1 off-season with a net gain of 7.9 WAR value. All of the action items from last November have been checked off. Spring training will settle a few things including the composition of the pitching staff. The bench jobs will likely come down to the last minute after a long look at the waiver wire on cut-down day.

How much of that WAR gain was attributed to Sal?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey13

How much of that WAR gain was attributed to Sal?

Ummmm.... for contract purposes... his statistical analysis was very important. Yeah, that's the ticket.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
The Giants are predicted to finish last in the N.L. West after sliding to fourth-place at 77-85 in 2020. The pitching staff is led by Julio Tehran (14-11, 3.89), although Kyle Smith (4-7, 4.82) will be pitching the opener. Closer Colby Suggs was third in the N.L. with 40 saves last season. Veteran catcher Buster Posey (.259-31-90) will be joined in the lineup by a new keystone combination, 2B Matt Cerda (.293-9-76) and SS Francisco Lindor (.283-9-53), signed as free agents in the off-season.

The Giants play at AT&T Park, which seats 41,503 and favors pitchers. The Giants are managed by former Cardinals bench coach Mike Aldrete. (His first major-league game as a manager will be against his old team.)


April 5, 2021: G001 (0-1)

Star: SF SP Kyle Smith 8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Odorizzi struggled through six innings, allowing nine hits.


April 6, 2021: G002 (1-1, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL SS Hector Rios 4-4, DBL, 2 RBI, 2 RS
Sano and Almora each had 3 hits for St. Louis.
Perdomo 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K


April 7, 2021: G003 (1-2, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL RF Oscar Taveras 3-4, HR, RBI
Pineda gave up all 5 ER in 3.2 IP. Lamb threw 3.1 innings of scoreless relief.


April 8, 2021: OFF
All five of our players cleared waivers and were assigned to Memphis (AAA).