Modeling Random Debut HOF on RL

[VanillaGorilla]

Re Barry Bonds, no, he has not appeared.

Gus Bell was 7 when Buddy was born. Their careers overlapped by 12 years, most of that time Gus was playing for National League teams while Buddy played for the Giants. They were never teammates, but played on the same field many times. Mike appeared after Buddy retired. He is still active.

Ken Griffey was retired when Jr was born...really retired, age 65. Jr is still active.

Jared Sandberg has appeared, but Uncle Ryne has not.

Tony Gwynn Jr has appeared, but Sr, has not.

I don't keep a list of such things, but I do take notice. Is a fun part of the random debut experience, I agree.

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Mack Jones was not selected by the program's default settings, so he did not get a First Ballot screening when he became eligible. However, he did get screened on his first year of eligibility and he did get in, so he is an Official First Ballot inductee.

Jones debuted in 1937 and called it quits in 1955. In his career he hit 388 HRs to place him 11th all-time.

He accumulated 2319 hits in 2404 games and posted a career slash line of 273/375/478 for a npa OPS+ of 135.

He was an 8 time All Star and won 5 GGs and an MVP in 1940 when he led the league in HRs with 33 and runs scored with 114. He posted a slash line that year of 303/378/544 for a npa OPS+ of 154.

He was a star for the Bees/Braves franchise which went to 6 WS with him, and won 3. He hit 7 HRs in 120 WS ABs and posted a npa OPS+ of 148 in 33 WS games.

He ranks 18th on the career RBI list with 1577. 6 times he drove in in 100 and scored 100 runs in the same season. He also struck out 1191 times, the sixth most for a career.

His Gray Ink and HOFs numbers both exceeded the Hall average.

Black Ink: 33 (0)
Gray Ink: 210 (9)
HOFm: 163 (2)
HOFs: 58 (13)

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Keith Hernandez didn't get traded at the prime of his career for little more than nothing because of detrimental clubhouse activities in this universe. He did not get blackballed by the writers when he became eligible for the Hall of Fame in this universe, either.

If the question is asked : "Who is the best fielding first baseman you ever saw?" I reply in a nanosecond that it is Keith Hernandez. No one else enters the argument. He was that good.

He "only" won 5 GGs here, instead of the 11 IRL, Hernandez gets in with an offensive resume (as opposed to the offensive resume that kept him from RL consideration).

From 1937 through 1954 Hernandez batted .303 while collecting 3073 hits. His career OBP of .395 is 18th best. He slugged .452 for a npa OPS+ of 134.

He hit 233 HRs while that still meant something (44th All-Time, tied with original inductee Duke Snider, who entered as the all-time leader).

He won the Rookie of the Year with a 331/408/481 line.

He won 3 WS with 3 different teams. In his final year, he won one with the Cardinals.

Like Jones, Hernandez gets in with his Gray Ink and HOFs numbers being above the Hall average.

Black: 12 (14)
Gray: 245 (118)
HOFm: 164.5 (86)
HOFs: 55 (32)

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Pedro Martinez gets in on his first ballot with the first ballot standard. His numbers in all four categories exceed the Hall average.

Martinez was the ace of the Athletic team I was managing, before I got fired. I take credit for notching him win #300. I had great fun when he was paired against a young Whitey Ford. Twice the result was 1-0 (one each way). The AI made a trade for Mariano Rivera, and thought it was cool to see both names in the box score. Also, a second basemen/ left fielder named Delino Deshields won a batting title while playing on the same team as Pedro. Nice.

Pedro debuted in 1935 and retired in 1956. He went 346-233 with 19 saves (he led the league in saves his rookie season), and an OOTP ERA of 3.36. He won the 11th most games, all-time. He pitched 44 shutouts, 15th best. Pitching in an low K era, his 3435 strikeouts are the 5th most.

A 3 time Cy Young winner and 12 time All-Star, Martinez won 2 WS in 3 tries, including one in his last season.

He won 30 games in 1942, something no player had done since the turn of the century, and something only achieved once, since.

ADD: With 409, Pedro gave up more home runs than any pitcher in the Hall and is 5th All-Time in HRA.

Black: 92 (58)
Gray: 289 (215)
HOFm: 223.5 (206)
HOFs: 58 (60)

[VanillaGorilla]

Who?!? What you hear is the sound of the floor breaking.

Two hitters and two pitchers get in. None of the hitters on the list met the 1963 standards, so off to the leader boards the Selection Committee goes.

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The only requirement for a player to get entry, along with the requisite period of retirement, is that he has 10 years of service time in the league. Bunk Congalton has 10 yrs, 126 days.

A 3 time All-Star who played from 1929 through 1939, Congalton gets into the Hall of Fame based on his career batting average of .349. That is why he is famous, and that is why he is in the Hall of Fame.

During his career he collected 1024 hits. That's enough to be on the All-Time list, and enough to get consideration, and with 10 yrs service, adequate to get in.

Of the top 10 players in career BA, Congalton was the only player not in the Hall. Only Cobb and Shoeless Joe have better averages. A point of interest is that there is no active player that is within 30 pts of his career batting average. Even money that when 2012 rolls around he will still be third on the list.

He posted a npa OPS+ of 132 with a career line of 349/390/468.

Congalton has the lowest composite score of any Hall member, though his WAR is almost 4 times that of Hans Lorbert. Both Lorbert and Congalton are famous for a particular skill and it is that skill that gets them both in, even if they are are short when measured by the metrics in use for the standard selection process.

Black Ink: 0 (0)
Gray Ink: 22 (15)
HOFm: 26.5 (2)
HOFs: 31 (7)

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Over to the VORP/War list we find Warren Cromartie in the 29 spot on the WAR list, and the highest of anyone eligible or not already enshrined. A better known name is the highest eligible player on the VORP list, but he was what could kindly be called a HUGE defensive liability.

Warren Cromartie, on the other hand, won 7 GGs in his career which ran from 1936 through 1954.

In those 19 seasons, he collected 2679 hits and batted .290. Drafted 16th overall, he won the ROY by hitting 333/376/459.

Cromartie was twice an All-Star.

The Saberheads were aghast that the Blue Dogs went along with the Congalton selection based on such a silly metric as batting average. The Traditional guys were very pleased and did not raise a fuss over the Saberheads choice of Cromartie. They'll fight the pencil pushing numskulls over their silly opposition to a guy based on a silly notion that defense is more important than hitting in a later year.

Cromartie played in 5 WS with the Boston Braves, and won twice.

Black: 6 (0)
Gray: 90 (22)
HOFm: 65 (3)
HOFs: 32 (11)

[VanillaGorilla]

They had the best of teams. They had the worst of teams. This pitching class is, indeed, a Tale of Two Cities.

Ed Dugan had everything go his way in this universe. Having only looged one season IRL, in 1884, the player development engine and the random factor dice cast favor upon him. Not only that, he spent his entire career with a GREAT team.

Drafted number two overall in 1930, Dugan won 345 games in a 22 season career before retiring in 1952. He did so well that he gets into the Hall on the First ballot standard.

How good were his teams? In 22 years, they never finished last. They won 7 pennants and 4 World Series. He had a HOF supporting cast that included John McGraw, Jimmy Wynn, Mack Jones, and fellow classmate Warren Cromartie.

Dugan was named to 5 All-Star teams and won 3 Cy Young Awards while going 345-273 with an OOTP ERA of 3.27 (npa ERA+ of 123).

No brainer. Congrats.

Black Ink : 72
Gray Ink : 354
HOFm : 208
HOFs: 56


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And it was the worst of times......

But Josh Beckett was a true warrior. He was stuck with a TERRIBLE Giants team for his entire career from 1895 through 1912.

Like Dugan, he was drafted second overall.

Unlike Dugan, he never got to the post-season.

Those Giant teams averaged 70 wins a season during Dugan's stay, for a 45% win rate.

Beckett won 49% of his decisions. He went 245-251 with an OOTP ERA of 2.71. Playing for a .500 team, it can be reasonably expected that about 25 losses would be wins, instead.

Becket won 20 games 6 times. 3 of those times for a team below .500.

Beckett is the latest RL active player to be enshrined. He gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Becket won a GG, a CYA, and went to one AS game.

Black: 28
Gray: 194
HOFm: 99
HOFs: 35

[VanillaGorilla]

The two sounds you hear are:

- the floor breaking

- a teenage Bill James screaming about the induction of Max Carey

6 players, 2 hitters and 4 pitchers, enter the HOF this year.

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Max Carey enters the Hall with the 3rd most stolen bases with 1022, 17 short of the All-Time record of Hans Lorbert. There are 4 players with 1000 SBs, and now they are all in the Hall (Lorbert, Bert Campaneris, and Tris Speaker are the others). His 105 SBs in 1914 is the 7th best single season mark. He stole 99 base in two other seasons. He led the league in SB 6 times.

Though Carey gets in because of his SBs, he has a decent resume, over all.

The 4th player taken in the 1904 draft, Carey collected 1936 hits before retiring in 1922. He has a career OPS+ of 118 from a slash line of 268/326/350.

He won 3 GGs in CF.

Technically a floor breaker because he would not enter on the Veteran Standard due to his HOFm/s score, he has Black and Gray ink scores above the RL HOF average.

Black Ink: 27 (32)
Gray Ink: 168 (148)
HOFm: 32 (76)
HOFs: 23 (30)

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To keep some sense of order in the divided selection committee, the Blue Dogs again supported the Saberheads in keeping out the statuesque error machine beloved by the traditionalists and again quickly entered a catcher in the nigh.......The real HOF loves catchers, and so far, this one does, also.

John Romano is the highest rated player on the WAR list eligible for induction. It is for this reason that he gets into the HOF.

Romano collected 1951 hits in his career that began in 1892 and ended in 1915. He hit 108 HRs during these years, which was a lot.

He was the catcher on the 1896 WS winner. He appeared in 3 All-Star games and won a GG.

Black: 8 (0)
Gray: 83 (9)
HOFm: 99 (12)
HOFs: 29 (11)

[VanillaGorilla]

I, er...the selection committee, have/has no problem finding qualified pitchers on the spreadsheet. As the standards lower more pitchers are becoming worthy of Hall consideration, especially those retired for 20 years.

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Bob Gibson was drafted 7th over all in 1902. Until his retirement in 1919 he appeared in 599 games, all starts, and posted a record of 311-254 with an OOTP ERA of 2.65. He struck out 2524 batters in 5056 innings. His 48 career shutouts is 6th most, all-time.

His best season was in 1913 when the RL HOFer went 27-11 with an OOTP ERA of 181 and struck out 174.

Gibson, though eligible for Veteran Standard consideration, gets in by virtue of his HOFs number being above the Hall average.

He appeared in 3 WS, won 1, and pitched a no hitter.

Black Ink: 17 (20)
Gray Ink: 203 (207)
HOFm: 152.5 (222)
HOFs: 52 (54)

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Lefty Gomez was the first player taken in the 1917 draft. He pitched in 23 seasons before retiring in 1940 and won 254 games, but he also lost 301. What makes him worthy?

In 1922 he was sidelined with a partially torn labrum, the death knell of OOTP pitchers, but he came back from it to win a WS and his second CYA in 1923.

His best season he did not win the CYA, but it was the 5th best VORP season by a pitcher in the history of the league. Playing for the worst offensive team in the league, he posted a npa ERA+ of 190 while going 17-19 with a 1.91 OOTP ERA, in 1924.

Another RL HOFer, he enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black: 42 (46)
Gray: 146 (182)
HOFm: 107.5 (128)
HOFs: 29 (34)

[VanillaGorilla]

Mike Sirotka's RL career was ended by injury. He suffered no such ill fate, here.

Sirotka was a late 2nd rd pick who wound up winning 259 games against 239 losses. His 20 saves are the most of any Hall member, besting Brett Saberhagen's 18 and Pedro Martinez' 19.

He won 20 games 5 times and 2 Cy Young Awards.

Playing from 1924 to 1941, he made 3 WS appearances and won twice, though his WS record was 1-5.

Sirotka enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black: 36
Gray: 190
HOFm: 100
HOFs: 28


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Juan Marichal is the third RL HOFer to enter in this class. Retiring in 1908 after debuting in 1884, Marichal is the player with the longest wait time between retirement and induction. At 101 years of age, he gave his acceptance speech.

Marichal posted 295 wins vs 227 losses and an OOTP ERA of 2.74.

In 1885 he won 39 games, a record that still stands.

A 5 time All Star, he won a CYA and 2 GGs.

He enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black: 30 (37)
Gray: 199 (197)
HOFm: 167 (159)
HOFs: 49 (57)

[VanillaGorilla]

Who? And no, this is not a floor breaker.

This is the 30th class of my experiment with RL modeling of the HOF. An updated chart that plots composite scores vs time of entry is below.

I am so far pleased with the results, here. I have some head scratching entries and head scratching omissions. The dominant players get in on the first ballot, and overlooked players have gotten in, eventually.

Top players according to BBREF Elo rater (a cool little time waster that can suck up an hour before you know it if you aren't watching out) that will not get in the HOF:

Top Hitter: Ted Williams. Misscouted and not given opportunity to play.

Top Pitcher: Roger Clemens. Ditto.

Top Active Hitter: Alex Rodriguez. First rd draft pick in 1885. Played entire career with Pittsburgh and hit .261 with 132 HRs. Not a Honus Wagner.

Top Active Pitcher: Tim Hudson. First overall pick in 1887, Stuff scouting dropped in 1891 and he had trouble getting starts. Accumulated only 6 years MLB experience.

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Charlie Geggus, like previous inductee Ed Dugan, played one season of Major League ball in 1884. Still, Dugan was drafted 2nd over all, in 1930, and Geggus taken first in 1907.

Like 40% of the first overall picks in this league, Geggus started his career by winning the Rookie of the Year. He went 19-15 with a league beast OOTP ERA of 1.57, but didn't win the CYA. In his career he went 339-287 with 2835 Ks (10th All-Time) and had a npa ERA+ of 123 from an OOTP ERA of 2.56. He didn't win the best pitcher award in any season. Lots of great names appeared early, and lots of unexpected names developed into great pitchers. The competition was tough for pitching honors from the time he joined the league till his retirement in 1927.

He played his entire career with the White Sox and won 1 WS in 4 tries. He was teammates with HOF Steve Yerkes. There will be others from these teams that will eventually get in.

Except for Black Ink, all of Geggus' numbers exceed the Hall averages.

ADD: In 1908 Geggus limited opposing hitters to a .228 slg%, a record that still stands.

Black Ink: 24
Gray Ink: 300
HOFm: 185
HOFs: 69

[VanillaGorilla]

I guess this isn't really the 30th Class, but the 30th year of the Hall. Details....

There have been 84 entrants. The chart is illustrative of the downward dynamic of Hall Standards over time. There are plenty of reasons for this trend in Real Life. As more teams enter and various metric points become relatively scarce in comparison to earlier years, this doesn't mean that the modern players are not as good as their predecessors, it just means that their scores are lower.

To argue that the recent classes are as strong as the inaugural class would be silly. However, as the mass inductions are pretty much done, the strength of the players inducted will increase as less 'filler' gets in. However, the figures on the overall metrics will continue to decline.

When looking at the plots, keep in mind that those plots to the right are the most recent ones and that they are on the chart, at all, is because of the "gravity" of the previous plots.The further up the chart a plot is, it will attract a higher entry plot. The lower the plot, the more its "gravity" will pull lower plots to the chart. The more lower plots, the stronger this pull for lower scores. They do not repel higher plots, per se, they just create an affinity for lower scoring plots which may cause a delay in some higher plots getting plotted.

At the same time, it makes it easier for "lower-high" plots to get plotted (players getting in without the Veteran Standard before they have been retired for 20 years). This sounds a whole lot more complicated when reading this clumsy presentation than it is.

Will just close this by saying I am happy with how the model has worked out, thus far.

[VanillaGorilla]

The best player in RL who is never in the discussion of who the best player ever was is Frank Robinson. He is now in the discussion, along with Cobb and Shoeless Joe, as the best player ever in this league.

The second player taken in the 1937 draft, Robinson played through the 1957 season.

He was the first player to hit 50 HRs in a season, and the first player to hit 700 for a career.

He retired as the All-Time HR leader, with 710. He enters the Hall 3rd on that list. Both other players are still active.

He is the first in the Hall with a 50 HR season. 8 others, all still active have reached that plateau.

Robinson retired with a career line of 311/394/553. His career slg% is currently 5th, all-time.

He retires as the career leader in RBI with 2358, and WAR at 133.9.

He played in 3174 games (3rd all-time), scored 229 runs (3rd), collected 3745 hits (6th), 6662 TB (4th), 1584 walks (7th).

He won 10 MVPs, 3 GGs, played in 17 ASGs, and was ROY.

He got 200 hits in a season 6 times, 40 HRs 7 times, and drove in and scored 100 runs in the same season 11 times. 6 times his season OPS was over 1.000.

He enters the Hall with highest Gray Ink total and HOFm number of any inductee. His career npa OPS+ of 164 equals Shoeless Joe's.

His Tigers teams won the pennant 4 straight seasons and won the WS 3 times, those years.

His composite score of 15.7 puts him with Cobb and Jackson....everyone else enters the discussion after them.

Black Ink: 167 (35)
Gray Ink: 447 (320)
HOFm: 481 (222)
HOFs: 78 (66)

[VanillaGorilla]

There are some easy first ballot inductees that are active. However, with the 5 year wait, it will be a while before they become eligible. On the pitching side, there are still lots of candidates ready to take a spot in the Hall. On the hitting side, not so much. The hitters will continue to pull down the standards over the next several classes. This will entry available for even more pitchers.

I mentioned this a while back, and it is more true now: If you are a pitcher and you don't get in on the First Ballot Standard, it will be a crap shoot if you get in at all.

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Daisy Davis, like Frank Robinson in the last class, gets in on the First Ballot Standard, but is not an official First Ballot inductee because no pitcher's entered in his first year of eligibility (no hitter's entered in Frank's).

A pitcher with 300 wins and 3000 strikeouts should be a first ballot inductee, and Davis is both.

Another RL player from 1884 with a short career, he was treated well by the development engine (does the AI have a thing for 1884 pitchers?) and is a no brainer to enter.

Taken 5th in the 1939 draft, Davis pitched in the Bigs from 1940 to 1960. He amassed 345 wins (tied with fellow 1884er Ed Dugan for 12th all-time) vs 294 defeats. He struck out 3204 batters placing him 7th on the all-time list sandwiched between Pedro and The Unit...nice company for that. His OOTP ERA of 3.45 is good for a npa ERA+ of 122.

In 1945 he led the league in ERA with a 2.31 mark, one of 7 times he led the league in that category. He Won the CYA that year with a 23-10 record.

He was 15-6 with a 1.91 ERA when he suffered the dreaded partially torn labrum. He recovered to post a 141-114 after the injury.

He appeared in 7 WS and won 3 titles. In 13 WS starts he went 9-4. In 1954 he took the hill 3 times in the Series and won all 3 games while posting a 1.54 ERA over a Detroit Tiger team that featured Ed Lopat and Curt Schilling.

Black Ink: 56
Gray Ink: 296
HOFm: 196
HOFs: 47


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No, the post heading is not a typo. Span, not Spahn, gets in this year. Denard Span is the newest active RL player to find his way into the HOF.

A late 2nd rd pick in 1907, Span logged over 22 years of ML service time before retiring in 1928.

In 2242 games he collected 2120 hits and posted a slash line of 282/350/400 for a npa OPS+ of 120.

He appeared in 3 straight WS with the Giants, winning consecutive crowns in 1920 and 1921. Fellow HOFers Gabby Hartnett and Buddy Bell were also on those teams. Span also won a WS for the Phillies in 1909 with HOFers Bert Campaneris, Nap Lajoie, Pablo Sandoval, and Hippo Vaughn.

Span enters for being 4th place on the all-time triple list. When HRs were rare, triples were of great importance, and no player with more 3 baggers is not in the Hall (Joe Jackson, Clemente, Cobb) and now 8 of the top 10 place holders in that category are in.

And, yes, Span is a floor breaker...more will be coming.

Black: 5
Gray: 27
HOFm: 36.5
HOFs: 32

[VanillaGorilla]

In the last two years there have been no inductions by the program based on the default settings for either pitchers or hitters. This means that when the pitchers come up next year there will be little competition from newer retirees for those who have been waiting (though I do have 2 First Ballot screenings from players who retired with Daisy Davis).

This also means that the hitters will be coming from the leader boards, as all three did for this class. With the standards coming down, only Devore is officially a floor breaker, even though his composite score is between that of Gonzalez and Bagwell. Had they been retired for 20 years, Gonzalez and Bagwell would have gotten in on the Veteran Standard, but not Devore (had he been on the spreadsheet, still), because of his insufficient HOFm/s number.

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Adrian Gonzalez ranked the highest of any eligible player on the VORP list, so he gets the call from the Hall. He certainly had a fine career.

He is the latest RL active player to be enshrined. An 11 time All Star and 3 time GG winner, Gonzalez hit 344 HRs(26th) from 1944 through 1959. In 1954 he won a batting title by hitting 317/395/507 that was good for a npa OPS+ of 146.

His career was one of consistency. He hit between 20 and 32 HRs each of his first 13 years in the league. His career slash line of 296/375/492 makes for a npa OPS+ of 141 which is better than that of most Hall members.

Gonzalez won 1 WS in 2 tries and had 2135 hits for his career.

Black Ink: 8
Gray Ink: 151
HOFm: 75.5
HOFs: 37

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Josh Devore had a long wait between his retirement and induction. It wasn't the longest wait by a player, but 51 years is quite a while.

Devore was drafted 1st overall in 1897 and like so many 1st picks, won the ROY the next year when he hit .303 and stole 93 bases. In the following season, 1899, he won the league MVP knocking 217 hits and posting a line of 372/425/485 for a npa OPS+ of 163. He stole 83 bases that season.

For his career, Devore stole 948 bases, 6th all-time. It is for that leader board slot that he gets into the Hall.

BTW, he also had 2398 hits and a career slash of 294/360/368 for a npa OPS+ of 123.

He was a 3 time All Star before the ASG went on hiatus 4 years into his career.

Black: 26
Gray: 115
HOFm: 62
HOFs: 31

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Jeff Bagwell becomes the first RL retired lock for the RL HOF as a hitter to get in to this one.

Bagwell was selected 3rd overall in 1943. By the time his career was over in 1960 he had collected 2225 hits and belted 377 HRs, the 20th most in league history.

He appeared in 6 All Star games. And won the MVP in 1945 posting a slash line of 363/455/579. Both OBP and slg were league bests. The npa OPS+ for that year is 187.

His career line and npa OPS+ are: 274/378/465 and 134.

He was on 2 pennant winning teams, but came up short on getting a title.

Black: 13 (24)
Gray: 166 (157)
HOFm: 69.5 (150)
HOFs: 38 (59)

[VanillaGorilla]

Clark Griffith retired in 1923, at the age of 32, with a record of 177-147. He won 170 of those games in the nine seasons from 1912-1920.

The ninth pick in 1910, Griffith was ROY in 1912, posting an 18-8 record and an OOTP ERA of 2.33 which was good for a npa ERA+ of 138. In 27 starts he pitched 24 CGs, including 3 shut outs.

In 1914 he was he led the league in Wins and ERA by going 28-10 with an OOTP ERA of 1.73 and led the league in shutouts, with 6, en route to winning the Cy Young Award.

For his career, his 2.56 ERA was a npa ERA+ of 120. He threw 248 CGs in 333 starts, and had 29 shutouts.

He made 3 starts in the 1914 WS, going 1-1, as his Brooklyn Robins captured the championship.

He won 1 GG.

He gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Black Ink: 21 (11)
Gray Ink: 154 (132)
HOFm: 90.5(90)
HOFs: 29 (39)

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Camilo Pascual was a mid third rd pick in 1902. Like Griffith, 2 years later Pascual was a ROY recipient. In 1904 he went 17-16 with an OOTP ERA of 2.48 on a 7th place Washington team.

Like Griffith, he also appeared in WS and went 1-1 on the mound, but his team lost to a legendary Boston team, in 1911, that was on its way to 3 straight WS titles. (That Boston team featured HOFers Charles Buffington, Walter Johnson, Rod Carew, and Roberto Clemente when they were all between the ages of 24 and 28...tough draw, that.)

For his career Pascual went 216-177 with a 2.54 OOTP ERA. He won 190 games over a 10 season span. Twice he struck out 200 batters in a season, in an era when that was meaningful, and finished with 1905 Ks for his career.

In 414 starts, he pitched 286 CGs and 32 shut outs

Pascual enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black: 8 (21)
Gray: 152 (123)
HOFm: 88 (66)
HOFs: 32 (22)

[VanillaGorilla]

Vada Pinson was not selected by the software to be inducted, so he did not get a special Firt Ballot Screening. However, on his first year of eligibility he was screened and enters by virtue of his Gray Ink and HOFs numbers both above the Hall average. He is an Official First Ballot Inductee.

2794 hits, 326 Hrs, and a .292 batting average doesn't get you in with the default settings, but these are the numbers Pinson put up to get in.

Like Griffith, he was drafted 9th over all. Like Griffith and Pascual, he won the Rookie of the Year. Unlike his classmates, he did it the year following his selection.

As an 18 year old in 1944, Pinson took the league by storm. He cracked 199 hits, 54 doubles (5th most ever in a season), 22 HRs, 106 RBI, scored 105 runs, and stole 22 bases while posting a slash line of 312/352/534 for a npa OPS+ of 146.

In 1951 he won the league MVP cracking 204 hits, 32 HRs, 112 RBI, scoring 111 and posting 321/372/578 for a npa OPS+ of 160.

In 1957 he led his Washington Senators to a WS title, and posted an OPS of 1.000 for the series. He returned his team to the Fall Classic the following season, but lost in 7 games to the Cubs. Some might argue that if you a lose a WS to the Cubs you should be ineligible for the HOF, but I did not stipulate that as a condition before starting this Hall. I am not going to change the rules in the middle. This is Vada Pinson, not Milkey Cabrerra, after all.....

A 7 time All Star and 6 time GG winner, Pinson hit for the cycle in 1955.

He has a career npa OPS+ of 132.

Black Ink: 27 (18)
Gray Ink: 226 (135)
HOFm: 144 (95)
HOFs: 51 (36)

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No other batter in the spreadsheet had the numbers to enter the Hall, so the Hall Committee went to pluck one from the leader boards. The selection of Willie McGee was one of the most congenial that the Committee has had.

Willie McGee is 7th on the All-Time triples list with 244. Selected 4th overall, he debuted in 1917 and retired in 1933. From 1918 through 1923, he led the league in three baggers each season. The meaningfulness of this accomplishment is appreciated in historical context. Triples are not given much weight in the metrics used for standard entry. However, when you lead the league in triples with 30, and there is one player with 10 HRs that same year, hitting 3 times as many triples but only getting 1/4 of the Black Ink that the HR leader received is a glaring inequity.

McGee collected 2360 hits and scored 1069 runs while posting a npa OPS+ of 120 with a career line of 316/344/443.

He won 1 GG.

Had he still been on the spreadsheet, McGee would have entered on the Veteran Standard, therefore, he is not a floor breaker.

Black: 16 (12)
Gray: 137 (56)
HOFm: 92.5 (84)
HOFs: 43 (23)

[VanillaGorilla]

3 hitters are inducted this year. 2 come from the leader boards.

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Ted Simmons is one of those RL players that has a good measure of HOF support from various corners of fandom. He is on the bubble for RL induction. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other and see arguments for and against both having merit.

Here, it is another story. Ted Simmons enters the Hall of Fame as a First Ballotter on the First Ballot Standard...though just barely.

Prior to 1970, Simmons would not have gotten in on the First Ballot Standard, though he would have gotten in on any ballot via the standard method. I only mention this to note the the sliding of the scale (I will post a Hall Chart at 35 and discuss this a bit more afterwards).

Ted Simmons was the 6th player drafted in 1940. He opened his career by winning the league ROY in 1941 when he scored and drove in 100+ runs while posting a npa OPS+ 143 with a line of 309/381/486. He hit 16 HRs that saeason. By the end of his career, in 1964, he would have collected 442 round trippers (10th all-time, at his induction).

He won the WS his rookie season with the Boston Braves when teamed with fellow HOFer Mike Sirotka, Curt Schilling, and team leader in OBP (.449) Eddie Gaedel!

Simmons has dislodged Joe Torre, who held a virtual monopoly on the page, from a number of slots on the Catcher leader board. Simmons now is the All time leader amongst catchers in G, AB, H, R, TB, 2B, HR, RBI, GS, PO, TC, DP, and Innings. Torre still leads in WAR, a category where Simmons places third. Who is second? The much maligned HOF selection Bill DeLancey. Delancey looking much more solid of a pick in retrospect.

In 1944 Simmons won a batting title with a .351 averge. He also grabbed a HR title in 1953 with 40, and hit .309 that season.

His 3513 hits are 10th most (Torre is 11th). His TB, 2B, and RBI marks of 602, 5601, and 1889 are all 7th best, all-time.

His career line of 296/353/472 makes for a npa OPS+ of 132.

A 9 time All Star, Simmons won 3 GGs and played in 3100 games, 6th All-Time.

Black Ink: 22 (0)
Gray Ink: 284 (94)
HOFm: 277.5 (124)
HOFs: 73 (44)

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Steve Braun was the third player taken in the 1945 draft. From 1946 to 1963, Braun collected 2443 hits and hit a slash line of 280/383/405 with a npa of OPS+ of 122.

Braun enters the HOF with the highest OBP and most walks in a career for a player at third base. His 1495 walks places him 12th on the over all career list.

In 3 WS he hit .397, winning a title in 1951 with fellow HOFers Jim Gentile and Pedro Martinez.

Braun 4 GGs at third base and was an All Star 8 times.

Braun joins the Hall in 33rd slot on the career VORP list, the highest of any eligible player. This is how he joins the Hall.

Black: 17 (0)
Gray: 76 (2)
HOFm: 72.5 (2)
HOFs: 44 (14)

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Burt Shotton has an interesting history as a RL manager, but he gets in to the HOF for his skill that was under appreciated in his playing days, but loved by the Saberheads...he got on base.

For his career, here, he managed to reach base at a .411 clip, 7th best All-Time.

From 1942 through 1956, Shotton hit for an average of .296 and stole 302 bases, but he is selected by the committee for his OBP acumen.

Winning 6 GGs and making 3 AS teams, Shotton played in 4 WS, and won twice with fellow HOFers John McGraw, Mack Jones, and Warren Cromartie....and message board legend "Wee" Ziggy Hasbrook.

In 1685 games, Shotton collected 1729 hits.

Black: 17 (5)
Gray: 91 (39)
HOFm: 51 (3)
HOFs: 31 (16)

[VanillaGorilla]

We see the new floor being established along the x axis 3 point. More plots will be placed near here as the composite average continues its trend to the RL value of 4.

The current composite ave for the Hall residents is a mean of 5.4 with a Standard Deviation of 2.9.

Rounding the composites to the nearest whole number, the modal and median composite is now a 4.

I don't know if the mean will get down to a 4, but I am quite certain that when 2012 rolls around, the mean will be closer to 4 than to 5.4.

A few thoughts on some low outliers:

Bill Delancey maintaing a WAR at C better than Ted Simmons is a shock to me. DeLancey has a composite score of 1.9 and Simmons' is 7.0, but DeLancey gets the WAR edge. Would have lost that bet.

Willie McGee illustrates the undervalued player, per the composite score. We will see more of them as the points get more scarce in later years. The value of triples is undervalued by these metrics in low HR eras. This under score is not the result of scarcity, but McGee will make for a good comparison to inductions in the 90s and later.

[VanillaGorilla]

The difference in the available candidates in the pitcher's pool and hitter's pool is marked.

For the next class, 183 pitchers will be eligible for standard and Veteran screenings. On the hitter's side for the next class there will be 21. The leaderboards (ie Slection Comittee) is used once all on the given list have been screened and spots are still available based on the RL induction break down. That is why the Selection Committee has been busy with hitters and not pitchers.

6 players, 5 hitters and 1 pitcher get in this year.


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Jim Fregosi was the third player taken in the 1942 draft. As a 19 yearold second year player he collected 208 of his career 3121 hits, winning an MVP by scoring and driving in 101, each. His .348 average won him a batting title, that year, and his OBP/slg was 429/561 for a npa OPS+ of 170.

He hit 349 HRs (26th) in a career that ended in 1965. He scored 1565 (21st), drove in 1633 (13th, tied with Tris Speaker), and walked 1429 (18th) times. He posted a career line of 285/364/450 for a npa OPS+ of 125.

A 10 time All-Star, he won 7 GGs at shortstop. He appeared in 2 WS as a teammate of fellow HOFer Jeff Bagwell, losing both times.

Fregosi is an Official First Ballot Inductee, but did not get in on the first ballot screening. However, all of his metrics, except for Black Ink, exceeded the Hall average.

Black Ink: 23 (1)
Gray Ink: 224 (51)
HOFm: 212 (21)
HOFs: 64 (21)

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Duke Sims is the second first balloter of this class. He did not get a first ballot screening, but enters with his HOFm/s numbers over the current Hall average.

Sims was a 10 time All-Star and 3 time MVP. The 9th pick in 1943, Sims collected 2466 hits from 1944 to 1963. He stuck around for a couple of minor league campaigns before retiring in 1965, becoming Hall eligible this year.

His 425 ML HRs are 14th best, all-time. He led the league in HRs in 1948, 1949, and 1950, hitting a career high 42 in each of the last two of those seasons.

He appeared in 4 WS and won a title in 1946 with fellow HOF team mates John McGraw, Mack Jones, Warren Cromartie, and Class of 1970 inductee Burt Shotton. An npa OPS+ of 129 resulted from a career line of 269/372/449.

Sims won 1 GG at C. His 1535 career RBI rank him 20th, all-time.

Black: 19 (0)
Gray: 112 (8)
HOFm: 196.5 (0)
HOFs: 60 (0)

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Gil McDougald was the highest ranking eligible player on the WAR list after Fregosi and Sims got their notices of induction.

McDougald was the 5th player selected in the 1940 draft. He played in the Majors until 1959. A defensive specialist, he won 8 GGs at SS, and also appeared in 4 All-Star games while collecting 1889 hits in a career while posting a 270/350/397 npa OPS+ 107 for a career line.

Mc Dougald is a floor breaker.

Black: 7 (1)
Gray: 56 (21)
HOFm: 55.5 (54)
HOFs: 29 (21)

[VanillaGorilla]

Lance Blankenship was born on December 6, 1898, 5 months after his father lost his life at the Battle of San Juan Hill when he stepped in front of an enemy bayonet to protect Teddy Roosevelt's horse.

His mother departed society and took her newborn to live with an early commune of tree dwellers who took shelter in the branches of old growth Oregon redwoods 100 feet above the ground. In this environment food and other items were thrown from tree to tree as commune members relayed what was needed to where it was needed. There was no room for error in this, each throw and each catch had to count or else the item would be lost.

A scout for the New York Yankees, battling opium and absinthe addictions, journeyed to the commune in 1920 in search of a cleansed life. There he found the young Blankenship and marveled at his throwing and catching skills. He was certain these talents could be translated into that of a major league baseball player.

He convinced the young Blankenship to accompany him back to New York and show his skills to the Yankees. On the train trip back, bandits hijacked the train and were looking for more than gold and booty. When one sought to take a young girl back to the coal car, Blankenship leaped into action, subduing the predator and slaying his evil counterparts with the weapon he deftly wrested from him.

On his arrival in New York, news started to spread about this hero, but before anything went to press, Blankenship passed by a factory fire, and saw the overwhelmed firefighters losing the battle against the blaze which threatened the worker's quarters/orphanage adjacent to it. Having fought fires from early childhood, he again sprang into action and expertly executed the only plan of action that contained the fire and saved the orphanage.

He tried out for the Yankees that afternoon and blew away the scouts. The Yankees convinced the newspapers not to run any stories about Blankenship until they were able to pick him in the upcoming draft.

The Yankees were able to wait until the second rd before taking their secret gem. In the city, Blankenship enjoyed the education and cultural offerings. In two years he had graduated from NYU and in each of next 8 off seasons, received a PhD in an area of study. Albert Schweitzer was in awe of him.

Overcoming small pox, polio, and multiple sclerosis, Blankenship played from 1922 to 1939.

The Hall of Fame isn't SIMPLY a Hall of Stats. When the stats are lacking, but a player gets in, there is a back story that raises the player above that of his stats. It is a story of this magnitude that is needed to explain Blankenship's induction....simply being a 'good guy' doesn't cut it.

His life in the trees made him a quick study on the major league infield. He won one GG at 2B and 3 at 3B. Hitting was another matter. Blankenship did manage to collect 2009 hits over his 18 year career, but he hit a line of 245/369/330 doing it. His average of .245 is tied with Gene Tenace's for lowest in the HOF. His career npa OPS+ is 92.

He won two WS in 2 tries, and hit .319 in those games....something about performing when it counts was in his blood.

The selection committee took into account his amazing life story (and the BTW fact that he enters the Hall 9th All-Time on the BB list, 1614) and bestowed upon him an entry to the HOF.

Rabbit Maranville thinks this is a crappy selection.

Black Ink: 0 (RL Maranville: 2)
Gray Ink: 41 (RL Maranville:50)
HOFm: 15 (RL Maranville:59)
HOFs: 21 (RL Maranville:30)

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Roger Repoz was a late first rd draft pick in 1941. He has been in the discussion of the committee members since he became eligible in 1964. He retired with more HRs, 375 (21st at time of induction) than any other eligible player, but was never the committee's selection, until now. Repoz had the highest career WAR score of any eligible player, once Gil McDougald was tabbed, and he enters on this basis.

Repoz played his entire career with the St Louis Cardinals. He won 3 GGs in RF and was named to 10 AS teams. His Cardinals won consecutive WS in 1954 and 1955. HOFers Daisy Davis and Keith Hernandez were teammates those years. There will be more inductees from these Cardinal teams.

Repoz drove in 1273 runs and collected 2033 hits as he posted a 272/384/479 line that provides a very Hall worthy npa OPS+ of 138 for his career.

Black: 20 (0)
Gray: 121 (1)
HOFm: 83 (0)
HOFs: 42 (5)

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Bobby Mathews gets in on the first ballot standard, but is not an official first balloter as no pitchers entered when he became eligible for the class of 1970.

Mathews is a no brainer. 318-257, 3.10 (npa ERA+ 129) and 3661 Ks (5th all-time).

Mathews won 5 Cy Young Awards. Only James Burke and Charlie Ferguson won more (6 each) amongst HOFers.

The first overall pick in 1939 was named to 11 AS teams.

He played in five WS.

He won five WS titles.

His record in WS games is 5-0.

The stuff of legend.

According to the standards in place for this HOF, Bobby Mathews is a gross oversight for the RL HOF.

Black: 124 (30)
Gray: 315 (286)
HOFm: 181.5 (162)
HOFs: 54 (46)

[dynaboyj]

Lance Blankenship's story was strange. It doesn't seem like it could have been created in-game or something. Is there something I'm missing?

[VanillaGorilla]

In the previous class the point was reached where the RL HOF began inducting players who spent all, or a significant portion, of their careers in the Negro Leagues.

For the purposes of this model, players who were inducted based largely on Negro League play are not used to determine the number of entrants in a given year. There was never a color barrier in my randomly generated universe, so there is no need to alter the HOF process based on an inequity that never existed in it.

The RL inductions of Roy Campanella and Jackie Robinson created entries for this HOF because their selection can be based wholly on their MLB careers (though this does not diminish the importance that they did start their careers in a separate and unequal league structure, and this history is important to their complete biographies).

The RL inductions of Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson do not create entries in this HOF. Their plaques are 100% deserving in Coopestown. However, to assign entries for player that were inducted for reasons other than MLB performance when the point of this exercise is to compare the entries statistically from a league that never discriminated against anyone based on skin color to parallel RL entrants who were inducted because their skin color prevented them from playing in the Major Leagues would skew the final statistical output that will be compared following the 2012 inductions.

-----

Re Lance Blankenship: I am not inserting my subjectivity into the selections. The process is in place and I just let it roll. Whoever gets in gets in. I will make arguments for players that seem less worthy than others, and I can honestly say that while there are some players not in the HOF that are better than than some that are, I could always make a case for myself that justified an entry. That ended with Blankenship.

The back story was not generated by the game. Just me having a little fun with the question that goes to the 'good guys' getting in with lesser stats. How good of a guy will get how much of a nudge?

Blankenship needed more than merely being a good guy to explain his induction (stepping away from the fact that it's just how the selection process works as I have conceived it). He needed to be an all-time GREAT guy. As far as the process of the model goes: He slipped in when the stars aligned.

I cannot make any reasonable argument for his induction based on his career. That the Hall process is at times unreasonable and his selection is through a process that hopes to simulate the RL attributes of selection, in a round-about way, oddly succeeds in approximating this dynamic.

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Gordy Coleman's entry is another neat "what-might-have-been" entry here. Instead of being felled by injuries in his prime, he gets in to this HOF in his first year of eligibility.

Coleman was a second rd draft pick in 1947. As in real life, he was traded at the age of 25 to the team he would stick with. Acquired by the Red Sox following the 1949 season, Coleman played in Boston through 1964. An 8 time All-Star, he led them to the WS in 1955 when he hit .309 with 25 HRs, only to lose to the St Louis Cardinals (who repeated as WS champs that year), the team that traded him.

From 1948 until his retirement in 1966, Coleman hit 464 HRs (11th) and drove in 1383 runs in 2228 games. He hit 40+ HRs in 1950 and 1951, leading the league each of those season. Those years he was also the league leader in RBI.

His career slash line of 296/353/516 gives him a npa OPS+ of 143. He collected 2305 hits for his career.

Not a computer selection, Coleman's Gray Ink number surpassed the Hall average.

Black Ink: 30
Gray Ink: 197
HOFm: 127.5
HOFs: 41

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Ellis Burks was the 4th player drafted in 1942. Though he continued to play in the minor leagues through 1966, he last big league action was in 1964.

Like Coleman, Burks was not a computer selection for the Hall, but he gets in on his first year of eligibility. Burks hit 475 career HRs, the 9th most all-time. Coleman and Burks were 1-2 on the HR list of eligible players who were not already inducted into the Hall.

2858 hits and 1754 RBI (10th) came from a career line of 373/340/373 (npa OPS+ 127).

Burks won 2 WS, in 1947 and 1949 on a White Sox team that featured fellow HOFers Paul Molitor and Jim Gentile.

Also like Coleman, he was an 8 time All-Star. Burks also picked up 5 GG trophies in his career.

Burks exceeded the Hall average in both Gray Ink and HOFs numbers.

Black: 11 (6)
Gray: 215 (45)
HOFm: 107.5 (52)
HOFs: 55 (42)

[VanillaGorilla]

All five members of this class score below the current Hall composite average, but the average composite score of the 5 entrants is 4.05. The RL HOF average is a 4.

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Ricky Nolasco retired in 1918 and is inducted as 95 year-old. Oddly, he becomes the latest active player inducted.

Side note: I told some friends about this HOF experiment. I said based on it I was predicting the Giants to win the WS because they had the only HOFer in the series, Pablo Sandoval....go figure....

Nolasco was the 13th player taken in the 1898 draft. In his 20 year career he logged a record of 331 wins (17th) and 263 losses while posting an OOTP ERA of 2.52 (npa ERA+ 110). He also racked up 2313 Ks and pitched 45 shutouts (13th).

Nolasco never won a CYA or appeared in an ASG (largely because there wasn't one for 90% of his career) but he did win 3 WS in 3 tries. After winning a title in 1906 (inspite of going 0-2 in that series) with fellow HOFer Hanley Ramirez, Nolasco was traded mid season from the St Louis Browns to the Detroit Tigers and took them to the WS. He pitched 21 innings in 2 starts, getting the win both games. In 1910 he again notched 2 WS wins. He retired with a WS ERA+ of 230. His role on these Tiger teams is highlighted by the fact that no teammates from these squads is in the HOF, and there are no real candidates from them, either.

He overcame a torn rotator cuff early in his career which makes any accomplishment at the big league level amazing.

He also pitched a no-hitter.

Nolasco gets in on the basis of his HOFm and HOFs numbers being above the Hall average.

Black Ink: 23
Gray Ink: 220
HOFm: 178
HOFs: 61

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Sam Gray was the 6th player drafted in 1907, at the age of 26. He did not sign with his drafting team and waited a year to be drafted number 2....by the same Washington Senators team that he rebuffed the previous year.

Debuting as a 27 yo rookie, Gray won the ROY going 22-14, 2.22. The next season, 1910, he won the CYA with a 25-9, 1.88 record.

In 12 seasons he won 209 games while dropping 176. His final year he added 2 wins to this total, but also suffered 10 losses as his 38 yo arm was getting sore. It turned out his labrum was torn, and he retired from the game.

Gray pitched a no hitter and retired with a career npa OPS+ of 108. He gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Black: 12 (6)
Gray: 137 (82)
HOFm: 79 (14)
HOFs: 32 (4)

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At 108 years of age, Kevin Appier accepted his spot in the HOF. Old ball players never die, they just fade off the spreadsheet.

Ape retired in 1906, making his 66 year wait the longest of for anyone to get in the Hall.

He becomes the fifth sub .500 pitcher inducted, but he won 318 games in a career that started in 1884. He lost 326. He pitched 31 shutouts and struck out 2135. He walked 1951. This ratio was a bone of contention for the committee, but it was determined that if Sam Gray could get in with 100 fewer wins and if a 300 game winner had waited longer than Nolasco, then this was the time to grant Appier entry.

His career OOTP ERA of 2.82 gave him a npa ERA+ of 107.

A ROY winner, GG recipient, and 4 time AS, Appier won the CYA in 1886 when he won a career high 27 games while posting a 1.66 OOTP ERA.

Ape's HOFm number exceeds the Hall average.

Black: 25 (4)
Gray: 206 (104)
HOFm: 180.5 (32)
HOFs: 43 (24)