2007 League Totals over time

[TheeeeeeeeeYankeesWin]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Never let it be said that I demand a sure thing.

Mathematically, I suppose there's really a 2.5% chance that I would lose, since the normal distribution says some results could be negative...but who's splitting hairs?

Woops. Your right, 5% is the number for a 2-tailed distribution. Good bet

[Zeyes]

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

1) Increasing HR's decreases 2B's which in turn decreases AVG and SLG...the modifier for 2B's did not change, why did their output change?

I could be wrong, but I believe the 3 extra-base hit modifiers work in conjunction, on the basis of the Hits modifier. If you leave Hits at 1.000 and increase the HR modifier, you get more homers at the expense of all other hit types keeping the total number of hits (or rather, hits per PA, I presume) roughly constant.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by TheeeeeeeeeYankeesWin

I think you answered his question in that 1st paragraph. However, your comparing 5-yr averages to one-year totals for dispersion is problematic. The 5-yr will most certainly be 'smoothed out'

That's why I mentioned it. I just thought it would be a little less problemmatic than using blocks of historical data that were created in different environments from the modern day environment. Neither comparison is perfect.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

3) RonCo: You noted that it was a design decision to decrease HR's vs today's totals...was it also a design decision to decrease singles and doubles as well?

I commented on a couple things over in your other post:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=145965

Also, as someone else also mentioned, the totals are somewhat intertwined. Raising HRs will eat into hits, thereby reducing to a degree singles, doubles, and hence triples. In addition, triples are essentially generated by doubles. (I think the game generates a double, then check to see if it's a triple absed on some random baseline percentage modified by the speed of the hitter). This means increasing triples will have a tendancy to reduce doubles.

[RonCo]

Trola,

I understand and agree with your request, though. We've had several discussions on this in the beta boards. I'll TT your issue again for Markus's review.

[atlbrave1]

RonCo-

Thanks, I appreciate it.

I do have a few other thoughts on this (mainly whether this is tied to the A.I. and not the league totals), but I've probably whined enough at this point, so I'll let the process take its course.