Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty, Year 2: One Flew Over the Pale Hose

[cknox0723]

For a guy enthused by minor league signings, the Rule 5 Draft is like Manna From Heaven. Last year, we nabbed reliever P.J. Bevis from the Ottomans (I suppose that means he was stashed away in Transylvania?), and the 25 year old produced this line last year:

G	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
63	69.2	75	11	26	57	5.94

But remove the rather, um, poor 11-run outing in a 25-1 loss to Texas on May 10th (reaching into the way-back machine, here's the happy recap! lots o' fun, losing by 24!), and you get this:

G	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
62	69	68	10	24	56	4.57

Not too shabby. A little more confidence for the ones and zeroes tagged with 'Bevis', and maybe some of those numbers will move even closer to ones and zeroes. Obviously the now-26 year old righty will have an integral role in our 'pen this year.

No P.J. Bevis to be found in the Rule 5 in this go-round, though. Appropriate it is that the most appealing option is someone who even the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays, winners of just 54 games last season, won't protect, but they do suck for a reason. Middle infielder Aneudi Cuevas definitely has some polish (No, he is not Polish, his name is not Cuevaszwski) and some upside.

OK, that's a lie. He's a 25 year old with five at-bats above A-ball. But, hell, they were a good five at-bats! A single, a double, and he scored a run, so he must be fleet afoot and handy with a stick! And...and...he put up a .279/.338/.461 line in Bakersfield, Tampa's competition for Winston-Salem!

OK, that's meaningless, too. He sucks, truly he does. But our scout-trout loves his glove and what the hell, his name's Aneudi Cuevas. A name like that just screams out, "Draft me!" And so I do.

We've still got a spot to burn in the 'pen, so I grab the best arm I can find in the second round and cash out with Cuevas and 22 year old semi-prospect Marcos Carvajal, formerly of the Dodgers. Carvy carved up the opposition in 44 innings split between A and AA, striking out 51 and walking just 8 and posting an impressive 1.43 ERA. When key free agent signing Ryan Franklin comes off the DL, we'll be in a bit of a squeeze for space, with Jon Rauch or Jorge DePaula likely the odd man out, and since both have brilliant nicknames ("The Hypothetical Power Forward", "DSM-IV Jorge"), we can't have that, no matter how they pitch. So either Carvajal makes a hell of a leap or gets a hell of a nickname, or back in the Dodger system will he be.

But for now, I'd much rather reflect on the fact that we have nine new faces in the organization making the paltry total of about $3 million. What a testament to my brilliance that is. Think about it! Nine players, three million bucks!

An awkward pause...

OK, yeah, I admit, I'd also much rather have a good player or two for that $3 million. But how many good players have names like Aneudi Cuevas or hilarious backstories involving Qantas Airlines?

[Vris]

The Rule V draft is gold for a team like yours Craig. You're not going anywhere anyway, so why not stick some unproven talent in there and see if they can contribute? Hell, your entire offseason was like a Rule V draft.

And if they can contribute like Pajamas did last year, then you might have a scrappy, young team that could do some damage in like 3-5 years. (Of course, we probably won't see that as it takes you a year and a half to finish the season.....).

*Cheese!

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by Vris

Hell, your entire offseason was like a Rule V draft.

One of those lines I wish I had thought of first. Nice job.

Originally Posted by Vris

And if they can contribute like Pajamas did last year, then you might (emphasis mine) have a scrappy, young team that could do some damage in like 3-5 years. (Of course, we probably won't see that as it takes you a year and a half to finish the season.....).

Of course it takes me a year and a half to finish the season when the entire offseason's like the Rule V. You think I actually planned playing out every game? Of course not. It's all a cover for my lack of managerial skills.

Thanks for popping in.

[cknox0723]

Iiiiiitttt's...preview time!

2006 AL EAST STANDINGS
New York Yankees........109-53 (.673), lost to ANA in ALDS
Boston Red Sox..........90-72 (.556), 19 GB, 1 GB of wildcard
Baltimore Orioles.......72-90 (.444), 37 GB
Toronto Blue Jays.......69-93 (.426), 40 GB
Tampa Bay Devil Rays....54-108 (.333), 55 GB

Well, this is not exactly unfamiliar territory. The AL East, the classic representation of haves and have-nots. The personification of three Davids and, shall we say, an Achilles, versus Goliath. Look at the numbers in the games back column for those last three teams. 37...40...55. Only in baseball can such vivid imagery be conjured from a single number. 40 games. 55 games between two teams! I see a bunch of midgets wearing ill-fitting green and yellow uniforms, looking like, in the words of Jim Bouton, "a bunch of clowns", and out of the other dugout, a bunch of robotic baseball machines. And Bronson "I Have No Plate Patience and a Reverse Platoon Split, Even Odds I Suck This Year" Sardinha. Well, there's a reason the Empire lost in the first round last year, and it sure as hell wasn't The Gload.

Things may change a bit this year, but you can keep the images of Devil Rays singing songs from "The Wizard of Oz" and Yankees mashing 500-foot bombs and short-circuiting around second base in your mind. A bunch of static characters, we have here, and you'll have the privilege of a first-hand look as to why.

[cknox0723]

Tampa's kept a pitching staff that led them to that lofty 54-win mark mostly unchanged, with Tim Wakefield taking up fishing for devil rays while Josh Towers jumps into the rotation. The former Expo is a control artist who allowed more home runs (34) than walks (30) in 224 frames last year. Predictably, that works out to about an average pitcher, and he'll get millions and millions for the courtesy. Joy.

The lineup's been dealt a similar upgrade, as Michael Barrett will don the tools of ignorance in lieu of Koyie Hill, who will enjoy the fine eats of Durham, North Carolina this year. At least Barrett's not making millions and millions, but as you'd expect, since he's cheap, he sucks. Besides, even if Mike's stroke and arm are as dead-on as a Barrett, it ain't saving this bunch. This is a team crying out for a star -- the number three hitter is Josh Phelps! the ace is John VanBenschoten, with twenty career wins! -- but the farm's lacking.

Last year's #6 overall pick, center fielder Jose Badillo from Toledo, put up a .283/.402/.500 AVG/OBP/SLG line in single-A Bakersfield, but the scouts aren't crowing quite so loudly this year. To top it off, Badillo's already 23 years young. He exudes vibes of our own first round pick, but of two years ago -- Mike Houchins. Same position, same toolsy goodness, same decent first-year numbers. But Houchins hit .205 in AA last year and dropped down to A-ball only to hit .221, and he'll be 25 this year. How's that future star thing work again? Fly through AA and AAA even though the guy couldn't hit in single-A last year? What are the odds of that? One in a thousand? In ten thousand? A million? What sort of precedent is there for a jump like that without the aid of performance enhancers? None! He sucks! Great pick, guys! Way to set back our future another three years!

Err, anyway, I see a lot of Houchins in Badillo. I can almost see his name being mentioned while reading the scouting report -- "Reminds of Michael Houchins." But as Bill James said of long-forgotten Fred Benavides in The Bill James 1991 Baseball Book:

Chief Bender, a Cincinnati exec, said that "[Benavides] reminds you of a young Kurt Stillwell," but

a. he's only two years younger than the real Kurt Stillwell, and

b. who the hell is Kurt Stillwell? If you really like him, shouldn't he remind you of a young Ozzie Smith or a young Alan Trammell or somebody?

Like Mr. James said of Benavides, I don't think Badillo will ever be a player. I hope he proves me wrong. This club could certainly use the help. But who the hell is Michael Houchins, really?

The main problem for the Evil Fishies is that they're trying to win by cobbling together a bunch of average players. Just by the laws of nature, some of those guys will struggle, like Edgar "The Worst Gonzalez Ever" did last year in losing 19 games, and suddenly you see the club in last. They'll be better this year, but even if they win 20 more, they'd still be under .500. And that's a longshot. How many teams actually win 20 more? How many teams have every player exceed expectations -- and still have no hope of even finishing second?

As bleak and dismal a picture as that is (Francis Danby?), it's reassuring, as this is definitely a bunch more hapless than the Pale Hose. I mean, at least we've got The Art of Suck. Tampa just has suck; no class, no culture, and certainly no Francis Danby, just vast cesspools of suck. But, hey, at least the weather's nice.

[cknox0723]

creed might sob at the state of affairs up north. The Blue Jays have the stars that the bottom-feeding Rays are lacking, with Roy Halladay giving Mark Buehrle a run for his money and Carlos Delgado striking terror into the Department of Homeland Security and opposing pitchers alike. But there ain't much help. However, there is some hope, I suppose, as many of the bit players on the club struggled last year.

P.S. Pls scroll over & read "notes" u wil go thx!

PLAYER		AGE	'05 OPS		'06 OPS		CHANGE		NOTES
C G. Quiroz	25	.779		.616		-.163		catching full-time sucks.  just ask Guillermo!
1B C. Delgado	34	1020		.962		-.058		pray for aging first sackers making $12.95 mill.
2B O. Hudson	29	.868		.793		-.075		age 27 peak season!
3B E. Hinske	29	.771		.739		-.032		hinksi is a bust there ear, even if his had was fine, he sucks
SS D. Berg	36	ewww		yuck		wow		ouch
Left Fielders	26	.760		.800		+.040		L. Nix and A. Rios; both should play
CF V. Wells	28	.921		.766		-.155		not so studly when he hits .260, like so many before him (Soriano?)
RF M. Restovich	28	Pass		.706		who cares?	.296 OBP...it's cringe-tastic!

There's no Proven Closer (TM, with a nod to Mr. Hulten), with the likely candidates being unappealing sorts named Knott (not good) and Geary (switch gears). The back of the rotation's nasty, too, and not along the lines of a Rick Ankiel fastball. Mike Bacsik? Chris Reitsma? These guys grow on trees.

Scott Thorman, a 25 year old with prodigious power, provides a nice trade chit since he resides in terror of The Terrorist, and that sucking wound at short (see pretty chart above) could be filled by 26 year old Russ Adams, who has a 1.000 career batting average despite never reaching AAA, or 24 year old Aaron Hill, who's, uh, in AAA. Barely. He struck out 164 times and received 21 free passes in AA last year.

And that might best personify the Jays. Hope rests on a shortstop with an "abundance of talent" and 8 whiffs for every walk, or maybe hope resting on last year's first rounder Tom Fresquez, an 18 year old third sacker whose line at single-A Dunedin was lousy enough to not merit a mention. The Evil Fishies may be a worse organization than us; it's a close call. But the Blue Jays give us both a run for our money. All $53,666,953 of it. And that's even less with the exchange rate.

[cknox0723]

The Baltimore club plays base ball in a way that would make the purists smile. Simply put, they are flush with many talented pitchers, among them one of my personal favorites of all-time, Mariano Rivera. None of the others are going to make the Hall of Fame, but Erik Bedard looks like a top-of-the-rotation man and there are some nice names in the bunch. Jason "Orange Bere". Rick "Left Bauer". A reliever who would be a non-descript young'un if not for his wonderful name, Jacobo Sequea. The staff finished ninth in the bigs last year with a 3.60 ERA and everyone's returning, so they've got something here.

But they finished under .500 and will likely do so again because they can't hit. Miguel Tejada is the same player you'd expect, but otherwise they have a bunch of one-dimensional players. Walter Young, a first sacker, does merit a mention only because he's a freakin' behemoth at 295 pounds, and last year's first round pick, backstop Joe Carr, is already slated to break camp with the big boys after just one year in pro ball. Unfortunately, it's after a .241/.321/.348 line at AA Bowie, and out of necessity as the backup to Geronimo Gil. Such is life in middle-market Baltimore, who bled cash last year and showed it after this offseason netted them just a pair of minor-leaguers in Blake Hawksworth and our former man, "Gangly Tim" Tisch. That adds up to a very high probability of another sub-.500 season. $10 million contracts, nevermore.

[cknox0723]

Boston's solution to missing the playoffs by a game was to throw millions and millions at relief pitchers Alfonseca and (Grant) Roberts, both fine pitchers, but I doubt that their 120-160 innings, no matter how high-leverage, will be the be-all and end-all determination as to reaching their Mount Blanc. Rather, in my estimation, the key will be whether Anastacio is actually "The Lesser Martinez" or a fine complement to Pedro, B.K. Kim, and A.J. Burnett, and whether Mike Mussina's 5.23 ERA for the Empire last year was a product of DIPS and Clutch Jetes' "defense" or the beginning of the end. I'll bet on the former.

Manny Ramirez could have put more clams in the chowder last year had he posted an OPS just 100 points lower than his career average rather than 250+, but even at age 34, our scout/trout likes his chances of a rebound. Dumping Robbie Alomar and Scott Spiezio, who combined to hit an empty .210 last year, will only help, but it may be balanced out by a not-so-graceful fall from the surprisingly productive backstop duo of Vance Wilson and Michel Hernandez. OOTP only knowing ratings aside, you want to bet on those two combining for a .300 average and 20 long balls again? I wouldn't.

This club is a souped-up version of the Baltimore franchise, and it really shows that one man, whether that man is Nomar or Miggy Tejada, can't carry a franchise unless he's in a Bondsian stratosphere. Slightly above-average players like Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar make a world of difference when trying to compete. Combine that with a fine pitching staff, and you've got the recipe for an unorthdox competitor in this world of Moneyball. Maybe it's the clam chowder.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

There's no Proven Closer (TM, with a nod to Mr. Hulten), with the likely candidates being unappealing sorts named Knott (not good) and Geary (switch gears). The back of the rotation's nasty, too, and not along the lines of a Rick Ankiel fastball. Mike Bacsik? Chris Reitsma? These guys grow on trees.

Boy, I'm slow.

Here's a hat tip right back atcha, Mr. Knox.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

Boy, I'm slow.

Here's a hat tip right back atcha, Mr. Knox.

Ah, glad you caught it. Thank you, sir, and you've got my honor -- I'll work in your favorite stat at some point, too.

[cknox0723]

The Empire's playing a different ballgame than the Pale Hose. It's not about the money. It's about the attitude. I count 4 MVP's among the club's players, two of which have been handed out in this alternate universe to newly-signed Brian Giles, the biggest offseason acquisition you'll ever find. Jason Schmidt and Javy Vazquez have pulled down two of the last three Cy Young awards. Some might say it's the money that allows the Empire to bring all of these guys in.

Nope. That's just an excuse. It's the win-win-win line of thinking that's even apparent in a computer simulation. The Pale Hose are messing around with Julio Lugo and Juan Uribe and applauding bringing in Eric Munson and Adam Kennedy. That's not good enough for the Yankees. They have and had competent guys waiting in the wings. Eddy Candelario, who's sitting in AAA Columbus, posted a 3.98 ERA in 117 innings last year. You think I wouldn't have preferred that over The Art of Suck? Bryan Myrow's got a .700 career OPS over three partial seasons, and in this universe, that's above replacement-level even for a corner infielder. Whither Joe Crede?

But by bringing in Scot Shields, a 30-save man, even though David Weathers chased Bobby Thigpen's only mark on the game last year, the Yankees are creating their own depth. Gary "Kitten Killer" Sheffield showed signs of impassiveness at the age of 37, hitting .236 with just 11 long balls, so in comes two-time MVP Giles when Little Giles, a .300 hitter and Gold Glover in his own right, already resided in the Bronx. This is an Empire right here, but it's not really an evil one. It's bordering on brilliance. It's a factory of baseball talent, a machine for 100-win seasons, efficiency that would make Ford's heart throb, and I'm not talking about The Chairman of the Board.

Does the money help? Sure. But the attitude permeating from this organization is that average and marginal isn't good enough, and sure enough, the only weak link in this lineup is catcher Toby Hall, but most every team is lacking a quality catcher. Hell, 23 year old supposed pheenom Bronson Sardinha hit a fluky .280 last year, after which I dubbed him "IHNPPaaRP, EOISNY", short for "I Have No Plate Patience and a Reverse Platoon Split, Even Odds I Suck Next Year." Well, now it is next year, and he won't get a chance to live up to that nickname because he's staring up at Godzilla, B. Giles, and another .300 hitter in Randy Winn.

The Gload is in AAA. Doesn't that tell you all you'd ever need to know about this club? They've also got last year's Rookie of the Year, right-handed moundsman Tyler Clippard, who I mention now only because I see the Hall of Fame in his future, and I'd be a fool to ignore him. The playoffs are an afterthought for the Yankees. Sure, maybe they'll lose in the first round like that did last year, but what does that really mean? I can't see them missing the playoffs next year, or the year after, or the year after, and that's without making a single change from the present. They're that good. Billy Beane would dream to have done so much.

[cknox0723]

So what does all of this mean for the American League's Eastern division in 2007? Outwardly, not a whole lot, as I can't say that the division will change shape at all this year. The Yankees are the runaway favorites to win it all, let alone the division, and Boston is in the somewhat comfortable #2 position, facing a season-long dogfight with the other top runners-up for the wild card. Spitballing it, those would be Los Angeles of Anaheim, Los Angeles of Minneapolis, and Los Angeles of Seattle, but I guess we'll see for sure soon enough. Boston may or may not improve, but getting non-contributors R. Alomar and S. Spiezio out of the lineup makes it hard to put money on a decline, and 92 wins is a nice base to start out from anyway. Baltimore's solid pitching slots them in around .500, which will be plenty good for third, and much as I'd like to pick Tampa to go from 54 wins to fourth place, my heart's not really in it. Toronto's got Halladay and Delgado, and how many John VanBenschotens does it take to make up that difference? More than 25, fo' sho'. So, much as I hate to fall back on last year's standings, I can't see the AL East any other way in this universe.

[The Funk]

Great stuff! Are you going to be previewing all the divisions? If yes, is it so you can start the season roughly at the same time as the actual majors, just to add a new feature to the dynasty or a bit of both? (Or something else). Whichever way, it works!

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Hell, 23 year old supposed pheenom Bronson Sardinha hit a fluky .280 last year, after which I dubbed him "IHNPPaaRP, EOISNY", short for "I Have No Plate Patience and a Reverse Platoon Split, Even Odds I Suck Next Year."

^^^brilliant. There are far too few acronym nicknames in the world today. Good to see you're fighting the good fight.

Also, I think you should have a 'written by a Yankee fan' disclaimer on your NY preview.

[Vris]

Originally Posted by The Funk

Also, I think you should have a 'written by a Yankee fan' disclaimer on your NY preview.

^^^
Beat me to it.


Actually, The Funk, I think he previewed the entire AL in last year's installment.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by The Funk

Great stuff! Are you going to be previewing all the divisions? If yes, is it so you can start the season roughly at the same time as the actual majors, just to add a new feature to the dynasty or a bit of both? (Or something else). Whichever way, it works!

Yes, sir, that be the plan, and starting the season the same time as the big boys sounds like a most excellent idea. If I don't burn out, I will give that a shot. Glad you like, I had been thinking for a while that this was one of those things I was doing purely for my own enjoyment. Yes, it means much longer until we see Shea "Trade me faggot!" Hillenbrand, but I think it's worth it. If this one's going to be an in-depth dynasty, it may as well truly be in-depth.

Originally Posted by The Funk

^^^brilliant. There are far too few acronym nicknames in the world today. Good to see you're fighting the good fight.

Going over all the teams has allowed me to add in quite a few nicknames. It's been a nice bonus.

Originally Posted by The Funk

Also, I think you should have a 'written by a Yankee fan' disclaimer on your NY preview.

Oddly, I have become less and less of a Yankee fan over the years, and more and more of a baseball fan. It's particularly evident on these boards as people have said they thought I was a White Sox fan (obvious) or a Mets or Reds fan. Ick. But my colors do show through once in a while. Nonetheless, I will never be a big "baseball needs a salary cap" guy.

Originally Posted by Vris

^^^
Beat me to it.

Braves fans.

Originally Posted by Vris

Actually, The Funk, I think he previewed the entire AL in last year's installment.

Listen to the old-timer. He's been around the block a few times.

[cknox0723]

2006 FINAL STANDINGS, NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
New York Mets..........93-69 (.574 win %), lost to COL in NLDS
Atlanta Braves.........85-77 (.525), 8 GB
Philadelphia Phillies..85-77 (.525), 8 GB
Florida Marlins........83-79 (.512), 10 GB
Montreal Expos.........80-82 (.494), 13 GB

Well, this should be more interesting than its baby brother's version, at least. The Pythagorean records show more of a spread than the actual standings, as the bottom two teams were projected to win 75 and 77 games, respectively, when looking at their runs scored and allowed, but both Atlanta and Philly significantly under-performed when using this method.

The Mets' free-spending in the offseason (hmmm, sounds familiar) may make expectorating based on last year's standings irrelevant, but I suppose it's at least worth a look-see. And with that...

[cknox0723]

It may be a hollow thanks compared to what could be, but Montrealers can rejoice that baseball will continue for their beloved Expos in this universe. Unofrtunately, it'll be full of the same woes that have plagued the Expositions in recent years, with an apparent lack of talent confining them to the lower echelon of the division. A stark reminder of that is the franchise's record four selections in the annual Rule 5 Draft, and most startling is that a raw youngster like 22 year old Jeffrey Allison has the inside track to the fifth starter's spot. But beyond a decent front three composed of former Tejanos Ryan Drese and Ricardo Rodriguez and a pickup at the trade deadline last year, Frankie Butto, the alternatives just aren't very appealing. Darrell Rasner and his 1-8 career record in 15 starts? Scott Elarton, of the 5.14 career ERA? In the words of Bill James, "Pass."

You wouldn't expect the bullpen to be a small-market club's calling card, but thanks to...wait for it...former Rule 5 pick Brady Raggio and flamethrowers Kyle Farnsworth, Luis Ayala, and Jeremy Fikac, that's just what Montreal has. The screwballer Raggio, plucked from the Arizona system two years ago, has more than tripled his career innings total with an out-of-the-ordinary resurgence in his mid-30's, but he's proved up to the challenge with ERA's of 3.15 and 2.81 since coming north. He saved 14 ballgames last year and will have a chance to double that this year. For the sake of Raul Gonzalez, I hope he gets that Proven Closer (TM) tag.

I'm surprised once again, this time just seeing a passable lineup from the bunch up north, but I guess they fell just one game short of .500 last year for a good reason. All of the "familiar" Montreal names are still around, with Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera forming a talented pivot duo, and Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge ("Sledgehammer") more than capably filling two of the outfield spots. First sacker Vic Diaz socked 52 doubles last year to go along with a .300 average, and if his hacking ways are less agreeable this year, stathead favorite Hee Seop Choi is still around. Third base, left field, and catcher, even with Jorge Posada having signed a cushy free-agent deal, are holes, but you can't win 'em all with a $45 million payroll, as the Hose well know.

Upon first taking a glance at this ballclub, with a low payroll and a whole bunch of Rule 5 picks, I would've tabbed them for 60 or 65 wins without a second thought. But that, as they say, is what makes all this work worth it. Well, I don't know who says that; I guess I do. Anyway, yes, the back of their rotation and bottom of their lineup suck, but Montreal has more than a few real ballplayers. And I certainly can't discount a bunch of angry Canadians. They'll be hard-pressed to sneak above .500 in what will certainly be a crowded National League East field, but they've got a fan from some hundreds of miles away; that is, until they play the Pale Hose.

[The Funk]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Oddly, I have become less and less of a Yankee fan over the years, and more and more of a baseball fan. It's particularly evident on these boards as people have said they thought I was a White Sox fan (obvious) or a Mets or Reds fan. Ick. But my colors do show through once in a while. Nonetheless, I will never be a big "baseball needs a salary cap" guy.

I never had you pegged for a White Sox fan. I remember the reason for picking The Pale Hose was because they were a team "Craptastic enough for [you] to want to turn around". I remember that because as soon as I read it I knew I was going to enjoy the dynasty. I seem to remember you posting somewhere that you were an Evil Empire fan hence the comment. And I agree baseball doesn't need a salary cap.

I also want to point out that I hate He of the Stupid Name, Terrmel Sledge. Not a positive thing to say but I might as well get it off my chest.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by The Funk

I seem to remember you posting somewhere that you were an [color=RoyalBlue]Evil Empire[color=Black] fan hence the comment.

Yah, I imagine I have mentioned it at some point in all of this babble. No sweat, it's all good.

Originally Posted by The Funk

I also want to point out that I hate He of the Stupid Name, Terrmel Sledge.

Hahaha! He has no middle name. That tells you a lot right there.

[<o>]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Yah, I imagine I have mentioned it at some point in all of this babble. No sweat, it's all good.

Hahaha! He has no middle name. That tells you a lot right there.

I would expect it to be Sister.

[cknox0723]

Chad Bentz is a name I wanted to squeeze in to the Montreal preview, but couldn't, but rather than let him drop, I'm giving him a whole separate post.

Why a whole separate post for a guy struggling to be the last reliever out of the 'pen for a team that could well finish in last? Well, check out Mr. Bentz's minor league numbers from the last three seasons:

YEAR		ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP
'04 (AA)	2.33	54	17	51	1.24
'05 (AA)	2.02	84.2	24	71	1.00
'06 (AAA)	2.98	51.1	14	42	1.09
'06 (MLB)	0.00	3.1	0	3	0.90

This sucker can pitch. This sucker is also a native of Juneau, Alaska. Think about that for a second. How the hell does a kid from Alaska grow up to be a ballplayer? And this is not a Joe Crede or Juan Uribe, here, this is someone who's going to pitch quality innings in the major leagues if it means I have to pick him up in trade. Does the sun even shine during the daytime in Alaska? I don't think it does.

But Chad Bentz isn't extraordinary because he's Alaskan and has put up good AAA numbers in this universe. Want to know why I'm really writing a whole post about Chad Bentz? Read this: http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/...po_bentz.shtml

Towards the bottom, the local Alaskan rag drops these lines in:

Originally Posted by Charles Bingham of the Juneau Empire

For a relatively unknown rookie trying to make his first major league roster, Bentz has drawn more than the usual amount of media attention. Bentz was born with a deformed right hand, what he calls his "birthmark," and pitches and catches with his left hand, switching his glove between hands like former major leaguer Jim Abbott.

In a 1,000 word article, that's the only mention of the reason why I'm writing this right now. The rest is about the local kid trying to stick in the bigs. How many millions of kids play some form of youth baseball? 5 million? 10 million? And this is one of the guys that made it all the way to the top, beating the 1,000,000 to 1 odds or whatever it is. A guy with only one fully-developed arm. Why the hell doesn't everyone know about this guy like they did with Jim Abbott?

For all I know, Chad Bentz is the kind of guy who would walk up to some chica and after getting rejected, hand her a business card that says, "Chad Bentz, MLB pitcher." And he's not even really an MLB pitcher, so that would make him an even bigger tool than he'd otherwise be. But even if Chad Bentz is really like that, overcoming what he has is astounding. You hear stories all the time about people that rise out of poverty to become a heart surgeon, or someone that jumps into a burning car to rescue another person and gets paralyzed in the process, and what Chad Bentz has done isn't anywhere comparable to that. But this ain't chopped liver, either.

Modern-day leagues aren't about "trading 4 pujlos" because "hes the best in mlb!", and they're not even about winning the damned World Series. The real reason I love 'em is for stories like this that ought to be told before they're forgotten. Never mind Eric "law is strick" Cyr or Hacktastic Julio Lugo, go try and find Chad Bentz in your fictional league. If he's there, I'll be glad to delete all players and have a redraft. Heck, it's not as if the Pale Hose couldn't use a fresh start. But you and I both know it isn't going to happen.

I know that this stuff just shows how I'm just a big softie at heart. But what baseball fan isn't?

[Vris]

Heartwarming story Craig.

[ifspuds]

I think you could find a Chad Bentz in a fictional league if you only thought of the story on your own. But I understand where you're coming from: truth is stranger than fiction, and you couldn't make this stuff up. I'll stop with the cliches there, and finish by saying that this is a cool story and thanks for giving it a post, Craig.

[cknox0723]

Thanks, gents, I'm glad that my playing messenger was worth it. Interestingly, we will go from that "heartwarming" post to, um, something completely different. I like this next post, though. But before we get to that...

Originally Posted by

I would expect it to be Sister.

...just wanted to quote this A-1 Aces line. And the day that Terrmel "Sister Sledge" gets traded to Pittsburgh, never expect to hear the end of it.

[MattStewNYY]

Speaking of Sledge, I have been inspired by your style Mr. Knox, and am utilizing it to do an MVP 2005 dynasty over at MVPMania.com.

Nationals Owner Mode Dynasty

Going to give them a little CKnox flavor with my own little twist. See how they like that curveball.

[cknox0723]

Jason Jennings, ace
in Coors, now here. Expansion
dilutes the talent pool.

Guess who won seventeen
last year? Paul Wilson. Next year,
he'll get $10 mill.

Dontrelle Willis, from
West coast. Fun to watch, big leg
kick. Still DIPS victim.

Josh Karp pitches for
Marlins. How quaint. Too bad it's
as well as a trout.

A bullpen full o'
journeymen. That lacks foresight,
as the Hose well know.

Good relief ace, though. Tim
Spooneybarger. Long ass name.
I'll call him "Spoon Ass"!

Florida, where old
outfielders go to die. Free
Miguel Cabrera!

On second thought, he
starts in left anyway. That'll teach
them to avoid Juan Gone.

Double play duo -- Seifrig
and...Roy? Nope, Will F. Harris.
The 'F' means "f***tard".

No Delgado here.
1B -- OBP Jesus.
More like Alou, though.

Catchers may bloom late,
but Josh Willingham just sucks.
Still no Piazza.

Mike Lowell's solid.
Consistent as you can get.
But this team needs Bonds.

SS J. Wilson.
Not Jack, but Josh. Hacking mass.
Julio Wilson?

SS prospect Powell --
fifth pick, near ready. Will hit,
but "fields" like Jeter.

Just saw Sean Burroughs,
wasting away in three-A.
Play nine third basemen?

Florida was 4th.
Lost Castillo, signed no one.
This year, World Series!

Hope springs eternal.
But in geriatric land,
none. Coincidence?

[Vris]

Awesome post Craig.

[Jestor]

Got to love the haiku

[cknox0723]

Thanks for the comments, guys. Been a rough day, so excuse the brevity -- oh, and Matt, once I get a moment I plan to sign up for those forums and check your dynasty out. I expect big things.

[cknox0723]

Much to my chagrin, this Philly club sizzles like the steaks the city's famous for. They have no catcher -- someone with two first names, Josh Paul, is their only option there -- but they'll get above-average production from most every other position. These are flawed players, sure -- Chase Utley barely got on base at a 30% clip last year, their three-headed third base monster of Jimenez, Nakamaru, and Nevin is...well, you come up with your own witty line about a decapitated cerberus. Oh, and Bob Abreu hit just .248 last year. But Pat Burrell. Jim Thome, and Abreu will combine for over 100 big hlies, and Marlon Byrd's not too shabby, either -- .310/.360/.455 for the average, OBP, and SLG if you run a quick and dirty Marcel projection on his last three seasons' worth of numbers. The Phightin' Phils were 8th in the league in run scoring last year, and nothing seems so out of sort that they wouldn't do that again.

The pitching will make or break this bunch, but they've got a strong backbone in Vicente Padilla, a certifiable ace who may not allow 46 less hits than innings again, but should still be good for 35 solid starts and perhaps 17 wins. Frankie Cordero's a quality closer, with an ERA in the mid-twos a near-lock, and his setup men, who weren't bad last year, should be...well, richer, if nothing else. Damaso Marte, our old friend, nicknamed "Shoeless", and knuckleballer Trever Miller are the hired guns to do the seventh and eighth inning dirty work this year.

But all is not peachy in Philadelphia. The lineup's great, the bullpen's strong, they've got an ace, but they're going to need 800 innings from their other four starters to apparently grow from some magic beans. The four mulattos behind Padilla are as bad a group as I've seen so far, on par with Chris Reitsma and Edgar Gonzalez and Darrell Rasnar.

Jason Johnson's the best of the bunch, a decent back end guy. His upside is what he did last year -- 10-8, 4.03 ERA, 175 innings. If he pitches in a bit of a poor luck, leaves a changeup or three up in the zone -- watch out, because he'll go from 'average' to 'duck and cover'. Such is the life of a nibbler who fans 4.5 per nine.

Jon Lieber's 36 and pitched pound for pound as well as Johnson did last year. You want to bet on him improving? Sure, anything's possible -- but as your number two starter?

Better than 26 year old Brett Myers as the three, though. His ERA last year? 5.12. For comparison, Dr. Loaiza's was 5.32, and he lost 16. 5.12 is pretty damned terrible in this league. "Ah, but he's young," you're thinking. "Potential." If it's there, he's kept it well hidden, as his career ERA in nearly 800 major-league innings is 4.58.

And Mike Hampton and Darren Dreifort will engage in an all out scrum for the fifth starter's slot. Dreifort might keep the ERA under five; Hampton shows no reason that you would think that.

Imagine if the injury bug bites. Cole Hamels, a 23 year old southpaw, won 10 in AAA last year, but a year after going 5-12. No one else looks ready. This rotation is worse than the one in Chicago. It's a shame. This ballclub is like that first used car you drive -- may not look perfect, but it looks like it'll work well enough. And it's wheels, baby! It's a car, damn it, who cares what it looks like? You can go wherever the open road will take you!

And then you realize the transmission's shot, and you end up on the side of the road in the rain. Randy Wolf, now in Los Angeles, was this team's transmission. 200 innings of league-average ball, maybe slightly above -- this club should have busted open the piggy bank for Josh Towers. Wolf would have been worth five wins to this team. It's five wins they'll sorely, sorely miss, because they'll end up on the outside looking in because of it.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Double play duo -- Seifrig
and...Roy? Nope, Will F. Harris.
The 'F' means "f***tard".

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

I quote the tongue-sticking-out smiley not because I have anything great to say beyond "f***tard", but for the simple reason that I am bumping this solely because there are 20 people in the forums right now. Comic relief, what can I say?

P.S. Willie Harris was actually formerly with the Pale Hose. Two years ago he was in our AAA system and one of the many malcontents that I cut. Two years later he's starting in the bigs. Who'd a'thunk it?

[The Funk]

God damn it! I was thinking of using haikus somewhere along the line, you beat me to the punch by a long margin. Still, I'll probably wait a few months until I hope everyone's forgotten and do it anyway And for the record, I call dibs on sonnets!

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Imagine if the injury bug bites. Cole Hamels, a 23 year old southpaw, won 10 in AAA last year, but a year after going 5-12. No one else looks ready. This rotation is worse than the one in Chicago. It's a shame. This ballclub is like that first used car you drive -- may not look perfect, but it looks like it'll work well enough. And it's wheels, baby! It's a car, damn it, who cares what it looks like? You can go wherever the open road will take you!

And then you realize the transmission's shot, and you end up on the side of the road in the rain. Randy Wolf, now in Los Angeles, was this team's transmission. 200 innings of league-average ball, maybe slightly above -- this club should have busted open the piggy bank for Josh Towers. Wolf would have been worth five wins to this team. It's five wins they'll sorely, sorely miss, because they'll end up on the outside looking in because of it.

I love this, great analogy and I love the ending sentence. I don't know if it was intentional or not, but the "outside looking in" comment fits in beautifully with the "on the side of the road in the rain" part. Or maybe that's just me having to do too many mind-numbingly boring analytical essays. Great stuff, as always!

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by The Funk

God damn it! I was thinking of using haikus somewhere along the line, you beat me to the punch by a long margin. Still, I'll probably wait a few months until I hope everyone's forgotten and do it anyway And for the record, I call dibs on sonnets!

Oh, sonnets are tough, though. I gave up shortly after my attempts to rhyme Willingham and "flatulence" proved to be in vain. I'll be all the more impressed if you pull it off.

Originally Posted by The Funk

I love this, great analogy and I love the ending sentence. I don't know if it was intentional or not, but the "outside looking in" comment fits in beautifully with the "on the side of the road in the rain" part. Or maybe that's just me having to do too many mind-numbingly boring analytical essays. Great stuff, as always!

I would love to say that I consciously thought up that line...but I'll set aside my modesty for once and say that my sub-conscious probably had a good handle on it all along. Thanks for your comments, they've provided me with plenty to chew on. Now get back to "For Want of a Decent Title", ya slacker!

[cknox0723]

A team that won 85 last year despite their run totals projecting a better mark. A crackling good lineup with the only notable hole wearing a mask and various ignorant tools made of plastic. No jokes about me being worn by John Estrada, please. A shaky rotation. Haven't we heard this song and dance before?

Well, yeah, so I'll limit this little ditty on the Woo-Woo Braves to a short medley. Just like Philadelphia, this club can pound that little white pill the same as the boys from Ball Four pounded the ol' Budweiser. Ryan Klesko, coming on for many millions, will only help the cause, at least this year. Raffy Furcal is the catalyst, and his DP partner, 27 year old Jake Gautreau, hit .330 last year and won Rookie of the Year honors. Even if the two don't combine for 350 hits again, an outfield of Chipper Jones, Carlos Beltran, and J.D. Drew is as formidable as you'd expect from hearing those names. Aramis Ramirez finishes a frightening front seven off, and only the aforementioned catcher Estrada won't do serious damage with the bat. He won't need to. The only worry is the outfield depth, but most every team is a little lacking somewhere.

The real worry for this club is pitching. Philadelphia has a deep, solid bullpen, but a rotation that leaves a little wanting. Atlanta's entire pitching staff leaves a little wanting, and instead of Leo Mazzone, this club has Ben Stroup, whose surname sounds like some disease you'd acquire in the jungles of South America.

Stroup the Medicine Man and his magic potions have worked on the nomadic Dan Miceli, who's thrown 180 innings over the past two years with a fine ERA around three, but the veteran is 36 years old this season -- and slated to be the team's closer. That should be a big tell as to the rest of the 'pen's quality, and even though the numbers aren't terrible, per se, there are pitchers with noticeable flaws everywhere you look. Kevin Gryboski and Andy "holyroller" Brown constantly fight the strike zone, rather than embrance it. Buddy Hernandez, a stathead favorite, can't strike anybody out. And setup man Will Cunnane is...well, he's Will Cunnane. His career ERA's 4.65 for a reason. One run game, one man out in the eighth and Carlos Zambrano's out of gas. Are these the kind of guys you really want to turn to?

But while Philly has a chasmic edge in the bullpen, Atlanta's rotation isn't quite a nuclear waste dump. It's not straight out of the mid-90's, either, but how can you expect that? The Good Zambrano, acquired two offseasons ago for Andruw Jones, resembles Victor somewhat in that he fights his control -- but not constantly, and this Zambrano can certainly dial it up on the radar gun. Best of all, he's 25 and signed for a mere $5 million a year for the next four seasons. Brett Evert will be around 'til then, too, though the major league sophomore is actually a year Zambrano's senior. He won 16 last year with an ERA just shy of league average, and the Braves will need a repeat performance to seriously contend. To do that, Evert will probably have to cut out the long ball from his diet, as he gorged on 33 of those last year.

Beyond that, things are rather icky, but that's still better than the Phils. Lance Cormier, another youngster, went 5-12 in his rookie campaign, but, hell, Glavine probably did, too. Cormier's 26, though. He probably ain't even Pete Smith. Josh Fogg went a sparkling 14-5 last year with a nice 3.41 ERA, but my scout thinks he should be trampled by wild boars. Why he hates a guy with 49 career wins and an OK 4.26 ERA is beyond my scope of vision, but it'll be something to keep an eye on. The fifth starter appears to be Steve "The Trash" Trachsel, but he's garbage. There are some sort-of recognizable, sort-of possibly passable guys in AAA, though, and last year's first rounder, 18 year old Dan Stanley, might just pull a Zack Greinke on the league if he finds out he's actually left-handed and has been conned all this time. Or maybe not.

As down on Philly as I irrationally am, that same part of me likes this team. Maybe it's the Mazzone effect, or maybe it's that I wrote so much, I don't know. But so much for a short medley. So, Mr. Fish, what do you think of this bunch?

[Vris]

Shhh....Don't tell anyone my real name!

They look solid. If Josh Fogg ever put that line up in my solo leagues, I'd be dancing in the streets! I think the offense is enough to overcome the shortcomings of the rotation (which isn't that short).

Estrada is a dependale catcher. I guess he doesn't have great ratings (like you would know anyway), but I agree that in all my leagues he doesn't really fair that well either (albeit it's a small sample size...<---fictional guy).

I don't see why they can't win the division. But Philly has a monster team as well. I think the Braves lineup has a little more pop though. If you don't mind, you think you can put up Chipper's stats for the past couple years? He must be aging gracefully by now. In a league for me, he had a great season, so I signed him for way too many years and I ended up trading him. One of the biggest decisions I've ever had to make with OOTP.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by Vris

Shhh....Don't tell anyone my real name!

Name? Why, who the hell are you, Mr. Raccoon?

Originally Posted by Vris

They look solid. If Josh Fogg ever put that line up in my solo leagues, I'd be dancing in the streets! I think the offense is enough to overcome the shortcomings of the rotation (which isn't that short).

You make a good point, though I don't like their last two starters at all. Such is life. I don't really like Chicago's last two starters, either.

Fogg will be an interesting case. I actually agree with my dopey scout here, in that last year was a career best -- but Fogg has a rotation spot this year, guaranteed. If he walks 1.6 per nine again, how much can you say he'll really drop off, and wouldn't most of that be attributable to defense, unless he's just throwing sh*t up there and getting pounded? I don't know. Eventually, we'll find out.

Originally Posted by Vris

Estrada is a dependable catcher. I guess he doesn't have great ratings (like you would know anyway), but I agree that in all my leagues he doesn't really fair that well either (albeit it's a small sample size...<---fictional guy).

You make a good point, tangentially. Catchers are historically late bloomers -- take Paul Lo Duca or Jorge Posada for an example. Estrada is still young enough to improve plenty. If he hits even .260 this year...this offense could score 10 runs a game and not have to worry about the pitching.

Originally Posted by Vris

If you don't mind, you think you can put up Chipper's stats for the past couple years? He must be aging gracefully by now. In a league for me, he had a great season, so I signed him for way too many years and I ended up trading him. One of the biggest decisions I've ever had to make with OOTP.

Ah, now I know I have hit the big time, a stat request, and for someone not from Chicago (or Birmingham or Charlotte)! You'll be...well, not necessarily happy, that's not quite the right word, but content, at least.

YEAR	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI
2004	546	.293	.401	.502	110	85
2005	548	.319	.421	.473	101	81
2006	527	.292	.394	.507	95	95

Larry Wayne remains a fine player at age 34, with the decline phase looming. If he reaches 500 long balls (he's 150 away, give or take), he'd have a shot at the HOF. I'm still kicking around what I think of that.

Originally Posted by Vris

I don't see why they can't win the division. But Philly has a monster team as well. I think the Braves lineup has a little more pop though.

Ah, the perfect chance to segue. I agree, they are better than Philly, if only a bit, but the division might be tough. Why do I say that? Well...

[cknox0723]

Well, maybe this league's Eastern division was not so different from its younger brother's counterpart after all. The Metropolitans are still the back-page New York team, but only barely so. Their financial situation again gives them an advantage over the lesser lights of the division, but not so much so that their pitching should be inordinately better, yet that's just the case. It's a talented and staggeringly deep staff, evidence of such being that Jeremy Affeldt, the Royal who tortured us so last year, is pitching in middle relief despite a 3 year, $30+ million contract. Yet how is he going to crack a rotation composed of two horses in Tim Hudson and Livan Hernandez, fellow big-ticket signing Bronson Arroyo, and two cases of "OOTP's development system sucks" in Aaron Heilman (a legitimate ace!) and Jeremy Griffiths? So Affeldt will work to set up Dan Wheeler alongside Matt Mantei and Felix Rodriguez, and I just see way too many guys with ERA's in the twos and threes to expect this team to not win dozens and dozens of games.

That's without discussing the position players, who aren't the caliber of those in Atlanta or Philly, but they don't have to be. Even if Eli "Hollywood" Marrero doesn't drive in 108 runs again (but he might -- he drove in 105 in '05!), Jim Edmonds, yet another free agent pickup, will pick up the slack with his sparkling on-base skills. I wouldn't want to be on the books for his $10 million contract, but in the Apple, who cares? Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui, who I nicknamed "Rodeo Monkey" in a past pique of wit, will provide a hacktastic, speedy, slick fielding 1-2 punch up the middle, and Jason Phillips and Matt LeCroy will provide a better post-Piazza tandem at catcher and first than will the barber shop quartet of Olivo-Torrealba-Thomas-Hillenbrand in Chicago. And D.Y.'s D.Y.'s under the bright lights in Shea now, and as long-suffering Chicago fans well know, he's a championship-caliber player. Even without a top-notch farm system (though Scott Kazmir's yet to be traded in this universe ), this club has plenty of those championship-caliber players, so it makes sense that they'll be using them to compete for championships, both this year and in the forseeable future.

[TotalEnd98]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Catchers are historically late bloomers -- take Paul Lo Duca or Jorge Posada for an example.

Jorge Posada was not a late bloomer. He was a criminally-mismanaged catcher, who didn't get the playing time he deserved because the Yankees apparently were getting great oral sex from Joe Girardi or someone supporting him and his 650ish '97-'99 OPS.

[seth70liz76]

Originally Posted by TotalEnd98

Jorge Posada was not a late bloomer. He was a criminally-mismanaged catcher, who didn't get the playing time he deserved because the Yankees apparently were getting great oral sex from Joe Girardi or someone supporting him and his 650ish '97-'99 OPS.

Yeah, but Joe Girardi knows how to win, ummm, I mean, is a proven leader. Look at those legendary 1992 Cubs, or 1994 Rockies--where would they have been without Joe?