2006 Oakland A's Thread - Page 28

Skipaway · 04-21-2006, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

It's not second guessing when you're screaming at the television (or computer monitor) as the stupidity is taking place.

And the so-called stupidity is usually something both statistically not that important, and involving a lot of factors we don't know. I really don't believe the decisions to be that important or stupid considering what we know about Billy Beane.

mikev · 04-21-2006, 10:52 PM

Gaudin called up, Kielty sent down

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NAS...=.jsp&c_id=oak

JDOldSchool · 04-21-2006, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

And the so-called stupidity is usually something both statistically not that important, and involving a lot of factors we don't know. I really don't believe the decisions to be that important or stupid considering what we know about Billy Beane.

If Mark Ellis and Nick Swisher batted 1st and 7th respectively over a 162 game season, that's 100+ PAs in favor of Ellis. If they both continue at the pace they're at (which won't happen, regression to the mean, etc. but I'm speaking hypothetically), that amounts to a lot of runs. When it's not just two players, but 5 or 6 who are out of place in a big way, it could result in 5 or 6 wins. Factor in asinine bullpen usage and Ken Macha could be the difference between a 95-win and and 85-win team.

Edit: But tonight I don't mind Ellis in the lineup. I have Lackey in an eTopps game and I need him to rack up the strike outs. He already has 1. Thank you, Macha! (Lackey can get knocked around, but all his outs should be Ks)

Green & Gold Heart · 04-21-2006, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

Edit: But tonight I don't mind Ellis in the lineup. I have Lackey in an eTopps game and I need him to rack up the strike outs. He already has 1. Thank you, Macha! (Lackey can get knocked around, but all his outs should be Ks)

Two Ks in the first inning...

Green & Gold Heart · 04-21-2006, 11:21 PM

dola,

I HATE the Angels announcers.

mikev · 04-21-2006, 11:21 PM

I have no problem saying that Macha will cost the A's 10 wins this season. Directly cost them 10 wins. Indirectly, possibly 20, but I bet that stupid moves he makes cost Oakland 10.

I could probably already point out 3.

JDOldSchool · 04-21-2006, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

I HATE the Angels announcers.

Yeah, they're definitely on my list of worst announcers.

JDOldSchool · 04-21-2006, 11:30 PM

dola,

A follow-up on the lineup stuff. The numbers seem a little too much for me, but I think I did the math right.

Assume Ellis gets 650 PA batting leadoff all year. If he continues the current rate of production, he'll finish with 62.5 RC. If Swisher gets 100 fewer PA, at his current rate of production, he'll finish with 117.9 RC. That 100 PA difference would be 11.8 RC. I think 11.8 runs over the course of 100 PA is rather significant.

Skipaway · 04-21-2006, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

If Mark Ellis and Nick Swisher batted 1st and 7th respectively over a 162 game season, that's 100+ PAs in favor of Ellis. If they both continue at the pace they're at (which won't happen, regression to the mean, etc. but I'm speaking hypothetically), that amounts to a lot of runs. When it's not just two players, but 5 or 6 who are out of place in a big way, it could result in 5 or 6 wins. Factor in asinine bullpen usage and Ken Macha could be the difference between a 95-win and and 85-win team.

No study would support what you said, considering the gap between players aren't really not that big. We are not talking about peak level Barry Bonds here.

JDOldSchool · 04-21-2006, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

No study would support what you said, considering the gap between players aren't really not that big. We are not talking about peak level Barry Bonds here.

The only reason that scenario won't happen is because no team in their right mind would give 650 PA, at the leadoff spot, to a guy hitting well under .200. Swisher being on pace for 100+ RC isn't really unbelievable (maybe for Swisher, but the league leaders are usually around the 150 mark).

Swisher's OPS is double that of Ellis right now. The gap is that big.

Ellis now 0-2!

Skipaway · 04-21-2006, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

dola,

A follow-up on the lineup stuff. The numbers seem a little too much for me, but I think I did the math right.

Assume Ellis gets 650 PA batting leadoff all year. If he continues the current rate of production, he'll finish with 62.5 RC. If Swisher gets 100 fewer PA, at his current rate of production, he'll finish with 117.9 RC. That 100 PA difference would be 11.8 RC. I think 11.8 runs over the course of 100 PA is rather significant.

And you already know the gap we are seeing now is unrealistic, and the right way to apply the differences between the two player is not using the stats of this season, but at least a weighted average with career numbers plus maybe age adjustments.

And if you do that calculation, there is no 11.8 run differences. If the trend continues, with Ellis keeps hitting this badly, you know well enough that weighted average would be dragged down and the team management would not let him get 100 more PA than Swisher.

Skipaway · 04-21-2006, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

Swisher's OPS is double that of Ellis right now. The gap is that big.

The trap of what have you done for me lately. I thought you are a stathead!

JDOldSchool · 04-21-2006, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

The trap of what have you done for me lately. I thought you are a stathead!

Oh, I know the numbers I gave were merely a hypothetical. But look at tonight. Ellis is 0-2. He's done nothing in the leadoff spot. Would someone else have done better? Nobody knows, but other guys give your team a better chance. Even if that chance is just a few fractions of a percentage point, they're still there.

Just because the ultimate difference might be very minor (and it's not that lineups don't matter, they just generally don't matter as much as people think) doesn't mean Macha should throw darts at a board to decide who bats where.

It's nice to see Bobby Crosby finally remove his head from his rectum.

Skipaway · 04-22-2006, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

Oh, I know the numbers I gave were merely a hypothetical. But look at tonight. Ellis is 0-2. He's done nothing in the leadoff spot. Would someone else have done better? Nobody knows, but other guys give your team a better chance. Even if that chance is just a few fractions of a percentage point, they're still there.

Just because the ultimate difference might be very minor (and it's not that lineups don't matter, they just generally don't matter as much as people think) doesn't mean Macha should throw darts at a board to decide who bats where.

It's nice to see Bobby Crosby finally remove his head from his rectum.

No, the idea of statistics is don't trust the small sample sizes. Yes he's done little so far, but if we review statistics, the sample size is not big enough to force any decisions. In cases like this, it would make sense for the coaches to review Ellis' mechanics and see if there are any real problems. If not, then we should trust the coaches' knowledge and what stats told us and stick with the plan.

Number one traditionalist mistake is to be reactionary and give in to second-guessing.

mikev · 04-22-2006, 12:28 AM

DON'T YOU EVER SECOND GUESS KEN MACHA AGAIN.

Wait, no... nevermind. Law of averages, and Ellis is a good hitter.

Maybe he's out of the slump now

Faroo6 · 04-22-2006, 01:01 AM

DJ azz needs to get some AAA work.

mikev · 04-22-2006, 01:05 AM

Yeah, countdown to the Daric Barton callup...

Honestly, I think probably DJ should have gone to AAA and Kielty shoulda stayed up. Just to keep from burning an option on Ronald McDonald.

Green & Gold Heart · 04-22-2006, 01:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Faroo6

DJ azz needs to get some AAA work.

He really does. I know he was a good hitter last year but this is getting to be a really bad slump.

Seven walks this game and only two runs scored. That's really sad!

(Also sad is that we're worse than the Royals with RISP!!!)

mikev · 04-22-2006, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

He really does. I know he was a good hitter last year but this is getting to be a really bad slump.

It's not a slump. He's been figured out in the bigs and he hasn't adjusted. The final 6 weeks or so last season he was bad, and he's been terrible so far this season.

He needs a good hitting coach to help figure out WTF is going on and where the holes in his approach are (having an infield shift on really messes him up). Unfortunately, the A's don't have a very good hitting coach.

Green & Gold Heart · 04-22-2006, 01:20 AM

Chavvy!!!!!!!!!

04-21-2006, 10:52 PM	#542
mikev Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Bay Area, CA Posts: 4,014	Gaudin called up, Kielty sent down http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NAS...=.jsp&c_id=oak __________________ Global Unified Baseball Association - Vice Commish and Oakland Oaks GM

04-21-2006, 11:21 PM	#546
mikev Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Bay Area, CA Posts: 4,014	I have no problem saying that Macha will cost the A's 10 wins this season. Directly cost them 10 wins. Indirectly, possibly 20, but I bet that stupid moves he makes cost Oakland 10. I could probably already point out 3. __________________ Global Unified Baseball Association - Vice Commish and Oakland Oaks GM

04-22-2006, 12:28 AM	#555
mikev Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Bay Area, CA Posts: 4,014	DON'T YOU EVER SECOND GUESS KEN MACHA AGAIN. Wait, no... nevermind. Law of averages, and Ellis is a good hitter. Maybe he's out of the slump now __________________ Global Unified Baseball Association - Vice Commish and Oakland Oaks GM

04-22-2006, 01:05 AM	#557
mikev Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Bay Area, CA Posts: 4,014	Yeah, countdown to the Daric Barton callup... Honestly, I think probably DJ should have gone to AAA and Kielty shoulda stayed up. Just to keep from burning an option on Ronald McDonald. __________________ Global Unified Baseball Association - Vice Commish and Oakland Oaks GM

04-21-2006, 11:21 PM	#545
Green & Gold Heart Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 5,242	dola, I HATE the Angels announcers.

04-21-2006, 11:30 PM	#548
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	dola, A follow-up on the lineup stuff. The numbers seem a little too much for me, but I think I did the math right. Assume Ellis gets 650 PA batting leadoff all year. If he continues the current rate of production, he'll finish with 62.5 RC. If Swisher gets 100 fewer PA, at his current rate of production, he'll finish with 117.9 RC. That 100 PA difference would be 11.8 RC. I think 11.8 runs over the course of 100 PA is rather significant.

04-22-2006, 01:20 AM	#560
Green & Gold Heart Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 5,242	Chavvy!!!!!!!!!