Time Warp Baseball - Page 242

BPS · 10-15-2005, 01:46 AM

Who knows how the OOTP development gods think...

But if I had to guess it would be that part of the process is:
(1) the gods randomly select something like 1 out of 30 players per period to be visited. More players in the league --> more visits from the gods. The rest of the players in the league are permitted to live their lives in peace and quiet (for the time being).
(2) For those players who get visits from the gods, a random improvement/hit is given to them. The gods determine the size of the effect on each of these players by picking a random number from some symmetrical distribution with a mean of zero.
(3) Therefore, no matter how many players exist on a team or are in a league, the expected average development change will always be zero. This is the easiest way for a programer to model visits by development gods and, in addition, it means that the average talent rating of the league is (simplifying here) is unaffected by the number of players in the league.

Lots of mathematical/statistical nuances are ignored above, but the above would be my guess about one part of what goes on in the heads of the development gods.

(May the gods be praised and may my players be deemed worthy to get nice visits from the gods.)

BPS · 10-15-2005, 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdw

We could stop adding 18-24 year old players into the draft for the next 5 years, and instead pop in 35-39 year olds who are fully developed. You honestly think that the massive declining hits those players take will have zero effect on the development of the rest of the players in the league?

I am unworthy to speak more about the development gods...May they be praised...

I don't know about the above, John. I don't see why the program would take the lack of development by new players as an issue that must be adjusted for when it came to other players.

Suppose no new players are let into the league. Would you suggest that this means that development declines by existing players would be slowed down or eliminated and some might play in the league forever? Maybe I'm not understanding what you're arguing.

Whether the ratings/talents did--or did not change--the statistical output of the league would remain the same. (That is, if 1200 HRs are to be hit in the season that many would be hit, approximately, regardless of the average rating of the players). Because of that, I'm not sure that the program cares about balancing ratings across the league in some way as you suggest.

fhomess · 10-15-2005, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdw

Now they're all in a tank together, and all the food and water filter go into that one tank. If a fish dies, he gets left in there. And when we come back in a week, we're going to be reaching into the tank blindfolded to pick dinner.

John, I think your fish example is fine except for this bit about pulling a fish out blindly. If fish=minor leaguers, are you suggesting we blindly choose which minor leaguers to serve up at the major league level? No of course not, but that's what blindly picking a fish out of your fish bowl amounts to. In reality, we carefully evaluate which fish to serve up. Only the best and brightest, which look the tastiest are going to be served. The fact that we've got more that look like crap does not mean we're more likely to pick one that looks like crap. More nasty tasting fish simply means that there's a greater chance that one of the nasty fish ends up, after food and time, as a tasty fish.

It's clear that you believe the development of one player affects the development of another, and that's the fundamental difference in what people are arguing here. Most of us believe something more similar to Eric's suggestion, that OOTP randomly picks players to adjust, and then based on a variety of factors specific to that player (but with no affect based on league, team, or other players) has a certain chance of going up and a certain chance of going down. As long as the actual number of bumps and hits per player doesn't change, it doesn't really matter if the % of overal bumps and hits that go to each player changes.

ifspuds · 10-15-2005, 02:23 PM

The only way to know for sure is to test it. Which I'm working on right now. I'll report my findings.

Vris · 10-15-2005, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifspuds

The only way to know for sure is to test it. Which I'm working on right now. I'll report my findings.

That's going to be pretty hard to test. In fact, I don't know how you could. Are you going to be using all players with the same exact talents/ratings?

Plus, John is convinced that the TWB file is different than all other OOTP leagues and is treated differently by the Dev Gods.

ifspuds · 10-15-2005, 02:43 PM

I'm still deciding on how I'll do it. So it may take a while. But I will report some findings!

Vris · 10-15-2005, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifspuds

I'm still deciding on how I'll do it. So it may take a while. But I will report some findings!

Ooooooooooo kay!

fhomess · 10-15-2005, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifspuds

The only way to know for sure is to test it. Which I'm working on right now. I'll report my findings.

But you'll bring facts into the discussion.

Cubsgnrlmngr · 10-16-2005, 10:15 AM

My guy's in the majors this season! w00t!

http://southernbaseball.com/twb/p17.html

canadiancreed · 10-16-2005, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cubsgnrlmngr

My guy's in the majors this season! w00t!

http://southernbaseball.com/twb/p17.html

actually it'll be his third year in the majors, but either way, welcome to the addiction

jeheinz72 · 10-17-2005, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdw

Watch choads get hits while guys like Bowen take a hit. I'm sure that Eric was annoyed that his choad bump while his all pro pitcher took another one in the shorts.

John

This is EXACTLY what you are not understanding. These 2 events are COMPLETELY unrelated. Ironic and unfortunate, yes, but related, not a chance.

jeheinz72 · 10-17-2005, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdw

> Each individual players bumps/hits has
> NOTHING to do with another players
> bumps/hits or how many other players
> there are.

I some how doubt this. We could stop adding 18-24 year old players into the draft for the next 5 years, and instead pop in 35-39 year olds who are fully developed. You honestly think that the massive declining hits those players take will have zero effect on the development of the rest of the players in the league?

John

Yes actually, I honestly do.

metsgeek · 10-17-2005, 01:11 PM

We need 1961 to start soon. This thread has been majorly hijacked.

jeheinz72 · 10-17-2005, 01:23 PM

Haha, yeah, you can tell this delay has us a touch grumpy.

canadiancreed · 10-17-2005, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Haha, yeah, you can tell this delay has us a touch grumpy.

speak for yourself I'm feeling great :d (unless someone brings up my windows box dying)

jeheinz72 · 10-17-2005, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

speak for yourself I'm feeling great :d (unless someone brings up my windows box dying)

So about that Windows box....

canadiancreed · 10-17-2005, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

So about that Windows box....

bite me :P

damn thing I swear as soon as I dedicate a weekend to doing data entry from hell.....BOOM!

jdw · 10-20-2005, 05:09 PM

Is the front of the site down for everyone else?

John

canadiancreed · 10-20-2005, 05:11 PM

it's sort of up the front end is up but the update is screwy. that and the forums are wonky.

jeheinz72 · 10-20-2005, 05:28 PM

Yea, not acting normal at all. I blame it on Chris...because I can.

10-15-2005, 02:23 PM	#4824
ifspuds Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Spokane WA Posts: 2,117	The only way to know for sure is to test it. Which I'm working on right now. I'll report my findings. __________________ Jeff Watson Former dynasty writer and online league player, now mostly retired

10-15-2005, 02:43 PM	#4826
ifspuds Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Spokane WA Posts: 2,117	I'm still deciding on how I'll do it. So it may take a while. But I will report some findings! __________________ Jeff Watson Former dynasty writer and online league player, now mostly retired

10-16-2005, 10:15 AM	#4829
Cubsgnrlmngr Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 249	My guy's in the majors this season! w00t! http://southernbaseball.com/twb/p17.html __________________ Chicago Cubs NGBL If you don't know who Kirby Puckett was or of his face escapes you're memory at the moment. Check this short video out about one of the most clutch baseball players in the history of the MLB. R.I.P. Kirby Puckett

10-17-2005, 01:11 PM	#4833
metsgeek Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Norwood, MA Posts: 5,450	We need 1961 to start soon. This thread has been majorly hijacked. __________________ Commissioner - PBRL - Just finished 2009 109 seasons and still running strong!!!

10-17-2005, 01:23 PM	#4834
jeheinz72 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Fresno, CA Posts: 2,163	Haha, yeah, you can tell this delay has us a touch grumpy. __________________ Join The Dugout!

10-15-2005, 01:46 AM	#4821
BPS All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 717	Who knows how the OOTP development gods think... But if I had to guess it would be that part of the process is: (1) the gods randomly select something like 1 out of 30 players per period to be visited. More players in the league --> more visits from the gods. The rest of the players in the league are permitted to live their lives in peace and quiet (for the time being). (2) For those players who get visits from the gods, a random improvement/hit is given to them. The gods determine the size of the effect on each of these players by picking a random number from some symmetrical distribution with a mean of zero. (3) Therefore, no matter how many players exist on a team or are in a league, the expected average development change will always be zero. This is the easiest way for a programer to model visits by development gods and, in addition, it means that the average talent rating of the league is (simplifying here) is unaffected by the number of players in the league. Lots of mathematical/statistical nuances are ignored above, but the above would be my guess about one part of what goes on in the heads of the development gods. (May the gods be praised and may my players be deemed worthy to get nice visits from the gods.)

10-20-2005, 05:09 PM	#4838
jdw All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 1,161	Is the front of the site down for everyone else? John

10-20-2005, 05:11 PM	#4839
canadiancreed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 11,660	it's sort of up the front end is up but the update is screwy. that and the forums are wonky. __________________ PT21 PT22

10-20-2005, 05:28 PM	#4840
jeheinz72 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Fresno, CA Posts: 2,163	Yea, not acting normal at all. I blame it on Chris...because I can. __________________ Join The Dugout!