2019 Cardinals

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by Orcin

2018. Pham has his three arbitration years remaining, current 2019 estimate is $6M. Pham is rated as the #6 CFer and Bradley is rated #7. OSA rates both at 3 stars, but my scout gives Bradley an extra half-star. Bradley is 28 and Pham is 30.

So you are giving up a higher rated player plus a relief pitcher for 3 years of arbitration salary of probably $6, $12, and $18 million totaling $36 million (using 20%/40%/60% model for predicting arbitration) to take on 5 years of control and $61 million correct?

So the question is, why would Boston give up 2 years of control of Bradley when Bradley is a younger player by 2 years? Especially if you believe players over 30 start to lose 0.5 to 1.0 WAR per year this deal is slanted in your favor and makes me question Boston unless they think their window is shorter and Pham plus the reliever adds more short term value.

[MizzouRah]

Trading system looks like it's fixed. Both trades seem within the normal range of trades that could happen in real life, at least in my opinion.

[Orcin]

Good analysis. The reasons that Boston would do it are 1) their scout sees Pham as the better player and/or 2) they need the reliever (it’s Gregerson or Leone).

I am pretty sure that I won’t do it anyway because I am leading the division and I don’t want to upset the chemistry. I might revisit it in the off-season if they are still interested.

I was really curious about Bradley because I don’t know much about him. I didn’t know his defense was that strong. I wonder if he is overrated in OOTP.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Trading system looks like it's fixed. Both trades seem within the normal range of trades that could happen in real life, at least in my opinion.

Yep, I think so too. I am shopping for bench help and vets on expiring contracts are obtainable for realistic prospect deals, but it takes a decent prospect or two instead of quantity - no more piling junk on until they give in.

I like it.

[pgjocki]

Per statcast:

Bradley Jr has 6th highest Range Factor this season at 2.34 and Pham is ranked 20th with 2.13.

Bradley Jr. is 10th in Put Outs while Pham is 34th

Bradley Jr. has 8 assists, tied for 13th while Pham has 2, and is tied for 97th

I found a category where Pham is rated higher: Errors with 5 while Bradley Jr. has 4 (ok only by one but still)

Per Fangraphs Bradley Jr has a UZR of 8.9, ranked 1st and Pham is at -1.1 and ranked 13th.

Now, that is their 2018 stats and I can't look into your game to see how they are progressing but from my 30 minutes of research because I'm bored in a hotel room I would wager that Bradley Jr is a better defender than Pham.

[Orcin]

The ratings and performance in the game are in line with your research. Bradley is pretty good while Pham is barely average. If anything, Bradley is probably underrated defensively in the game. I think it is pretty clear that Bradley is the better all-round player.

[Orcin]

My latest attempt to turn the Cardinals into a champion has reached the trade deadline. Simming the 2018 season up to the all-star break leaves us 15 games over .500 and in first place by 4 games over the Cubs. So these Cardinals are better than the real team at the point where Matheny was fired, and more in line with where they seem to be today. In my league, Chicago lost Jon Lester for the season early and their offense has been sluggish, but they remain 7 games over .500 and are gaining ground lately. Thus, I approached the trade deadline like a team that needs to add key pieces for a pennant drive.

I started managing the games after the all-star break, in order to get a good feel for the team. I have seen enough to be comfortable with most areas except the bench and the bullpen. Greg Holland was terrible in the closer role so I released him and swallowed his $14M salary. No one else has come forward to claim the ninth inning although the bullpen has been decent overall. Reserves Harrison Bader and Yairo Munoz are still developing in my scenario, and need to be playing every day in AAA.

So, I concluded that my biggest needs were veteran role players for the bench and bullpen upgrades to include an experienced closer. My solutions were:

1. Traded INF Greg Garcia to KC for CL Kelvin Herrera. Rebuilding KC wanted to get rid of Herrera's $8M salary, just as they did in real life. Garcia is starting at SS and batting second for KC, so they obviously like the deal so far. Herrera will not be extended but I might consider him in the offseason market.

2. Traded RHP Sam Tuivailala to CIN for LHP Wandy Peralta. I swapped a pitcher with no options for a lefty with three options that I could stash at AAA in case of injury to Cecil or Lyons. I have plenty of bullpen depth from the right side, but Sherriff was the only lefty in reserve.

3. Traded CF Oscar Mercado and minor league RP Preston Guilmet to OAK for INF Jed Lowrie. OAK wanted to dump Lowrie's $6M salary because they are mired in last place at 34-68. Lowrie is a switch-hitter and can play all infield positions, so he makes a great bench piece for the stretch drive. He is 34 and will be a free agent, so this is a short-term relationship.

4. Traded 1B Luke Voit and 2B prospect Zach Kirtley to TEX for CF Aaron Hicks. Texas claimed Hicks off waivers from the Yankees in April. The Rangers have fallen out of the race and recently changed their focus to rebuilding, so Hicks and his $3M salary are expendable. He plays all three outfield positions well and is a switch-hitter like Lowrie, making him an ideal fourth outfielder. Hicks has one year of arbitration eligibilty left, but I could decline to offer.

I chose not to trade Tommy Pham now because he has too much value to be dumped for prospects. He could be an offseason trade chip or I might just keep him through his arbitration years. Pham could replace Hicks as the fourth outfielder next season if Bader develops or I acquire a better center fielder.

Ozuna and Wacha have performed too well to accept a bargain extension now. My current strategy for them is to go to arbitration for 2019, see how they perform next year, and then give them a QO. I could still sign them as free agents and I might get a bargain if they have a draft pick attached.

Some other random notes:
- I experimented with an outfield alignment of Pham-Fowler-Ozuna left to right, but Ozuna-Pham-Fowler is clearly better defensively.
- O'Neill started hot in AAA, was brought up for a look, and promptly took the DH role away from Jose Martinez. No urge to acquire Calhoun in this version.
- Hicks was ineffective in the bullpen and was sent to AAA where he is performing well as a starter. His future might be as a rotation piece or trade chip.
- Bader looks to have more upside in this version and I plan to give him a long look before committing big money to a different center fielder.
- I plan to extend Wainwright to meet my owner goal. I hope that he will eventually accept a one-year extension or maybe one plus a vesting option.
- Fowler is one of my best players and I have no desire to trade him. He might be in right field for the rest of his contract.
- My glaring hole for next season is the left side of the infield, especially third base. Sound familiar?

Current status:

[MizzouRah]

I'm off to a 26-7 start to the 2025 season and really love this team.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I'm off to a 26-7 start to the 2025 season and really love this team.

Good luck! We need more details.

[MizzouRah]

I'll try to get a snapshot of this current Cardinals team tonight.

[MizzouRah]

2025 Cardinals

[MizzouRah]

Our starting Catcher Kyle McCann is out with a fractured rib. That's our team, a young, good defensive team with a lot of upside. Harper is off to a horrible start, so once he gets going we should be even better.

Wish I had a two monitor setup so I do a small write up of each player, but that would take a bit of time going back and forth from OOTP to the forum.

I always sign a bunch of older and some young prospects to minor league deals, so I have some decent, cheap depth.

I didn't have a lot of extra money with the big contracts of Harper, Lindor and Nola, so I had to get creative and trade away good players for younger, high potential players with a focus on above average defense and speed on the bases. I worked hard on getting the bullpen in shape and LHP Scott Alexander was a Cub last season and killed me so I was glad to be able to sign him in FA. I figured last season would be a growth season for many players and hoped it would payoff in 2025. Heck my starting CF is a rule 5 draftee as well as my starting catcher from last season.

The big signing was SP Tadataka Matsunaga, an international FA from Japan. He could be a #1 on most teams, but Nola is a stud so he fits nicely as a #2 in St. Louis. This is my 8th year as the Cardinals GM and although I've had a couple of really good seasons in 2021-2022 (102 wins and a WS appearance) we haven't been very good the past two seasons and I really feel like this might be the most complete team I've had. Too early to tell, but I love the start!

[Orcin]

I don’t recognize too many names there. The league certainly turns over fast. Nice job of managing around your contract issues from a few years ago.

[Orcin]

This is what disaster looks like... Wacha and Mikolas were injured within the past ten days.




Gomber and Chris Ellis are in the rotation at the moment, so this is what a desperation move looks like...




Please note that this was a waiver trade to plug a hole in the rotation and, as you can see on the list above, the acquired starter (Miley) got hurt between the time the trade was made and the waivers cleared! I let it go through anyway because it was only a five day injury, but I have to wonder if the injuries are behind us or if this is a bad omen. Miley was on the trade block and only makes the minimum, so not much risk there. I guess he is my Tyson Ross move.

[rink23]

Well, got back from my baseball trip through Detroit and Toronto on Monday and resumed season Tuesday and guess what, all my OOTP slowdown/crash issues were gone.

Thanks to the developers for their hard work in ironing out those major kinks.
Anyway, my defending World Series champion Redbirds continue to cruise. It kind of reminds me the real 2004 and 2005 teams, you just knew they were going to find a way to win.

They went into the All-Star break 62-33, up by 12.5 over the Pirates in the division and 6.5 on Arizona in the NL.

The Yankees top the AL at 60-36.
Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado are both legitimate MVP candidates and Marcell Ozuna isn't far behind.
Luke Weaver and Carlos Martinez are probably both in the Cy Young conversation and Oscar De La Cruz may end up being the top rookie pitcher.
Only real kinks may be that the six through eight spots in the batting order have not really clicked and the defense has gone from the best in the NL to the bottom third.
Got some bad news coming out of the All-Star break though, Harper came back with a case of the gout. He'll miss six games and has been placed on the disabled list.

[Orcin]

I am having a lot of fun with my latest league. I am nearing the end of August and only 1/2 game behind the Cubs. The big star for me is Dexter Fowler (!!) with a .910 OPS. Carpenter is right there too with a .901 OPS. The schedule has helped a little and I have been able to go with a four-man rotation for a couple of weeks.

It will be a very interesting free agency period. Machado and Harper were not extended or traded, and they both have over 1.10 OPS to lead their respective leagues. The bidding should be extreme. I won't be in the mix because I have decided to avoid any free agent that has a draft pick attached this time.

I may go into the offseason with little to do. I want to follow the blueprint that I believe the real Cardinals will follow, which is to focus on run prevention and strength the defense. I expect them to pursue a defense-oriented shortstop and move DeJong to third base. Bader will be the center fielder, and in my case I still have Pham to trade or (more likely) use as the fourth outfielder. The pitching staff is sort of a mess but it will be easier for me to sort it out because I haven't moved starters to the bullpen and put everybody with an arm on the 40-man.

[rink23]

I have not bailed on my 2021 Cardinals season, I am still way ahead in both the NL Central and NL overall standings in late August, but have run into a back/hip issue which makes it tough to sit at a computer desk for an extended period.
I also have another baseball trip coming up -- east coast, six games, six days by bus with Buckley Baseball Tours -- beginning Sunday, so I felt it was imperative that I do everything I could to get myself back into traveling shape and that meant staying out of my computer chair which seemed to be a part of my issues.
I hope to resume things when I get back.
Everyone else, keep on posting.

[Orcin]

Good luck with your health and enjoy your trip!

I am also traveling for a week (Nashville for the weekend then North Carolina to see friends) so I won’t have any update for a while. I will be finishing a tight stretch drive when I return. Great to be in the race, OOTP and real.

[rink23]

Back from my east coast trip with Buckley Baseball Tours -- got rained out at Philly, and rain delays cost us a doubleheader at Citi Field (they played one, but it started too late 9 p.m. for us to stay), but we did get games in Baltimore, Boston (2) and Yankee Stadium -- so it, as always, was a memorable experience.
I've got in just over a week or so of games in for my 2021 Cardinals, having gone 3-5. But sitting at 88-50 on Sept. 9, I still own an 18-game lead in the division over the Cubs and have a magic number of six to clinch.
We lead the NL Standings by seven games for the Mets, but have just a 1.5 game advantage over the Yankees for best overall mark.
The one concern, is that after earning a save in a Sept. 4 victory over the Phillies, closer Michael Feliz was sidelined with an undetermined injury. No talk of the injury during the game, I learned of it in the box score.
Over the next three days, I got no word from the medical team on the status of Feliz.
At the same time, I was in contract negotiations with Feliz, on a three-year deal worth $48 million. The third season is a team option.
I figured, although closers are easy to come by in OOTP, Zach Britton is available EVERY season, a 28-year-old Feliz was worth the risk. Especially since I could cut ties with him after two seasons, if necessary.
Also, despite being the defending World Series champion and owning the best record in 2021, I rank just 10th in payroll so I have money to spent.

Feliz has a 5-2 record and 32 saves (two blown saves) this season to go with a 1.09 WHIP and 1.74 ERA.

Also, it's worth noting I win a lot of games by blowout and have a strong pen so his save opportunities have been slightly limited.

Anyway, after our game on Sept. 7, I get a note that Feliz has accepted the offer.
Great.

After advancing to the next day, I get a note explaining Feliz will be out for five weeks with a strained oblique.

This should put him out until around Oct. 13 -- near the start of the NL Championship Series

I don't know if being alerted of the injury beforehand would have changed my decision on the extension offer -- especially since it has nothing to do with his pitching arm -- but it almost seems like the game was f'ing with me.
Anyway, the best team in the league will go into the postseason minus its closer. That role will go to left-hander Jayden Cullingworth, a 4.5-star reliever the Cardinals won in a bidding war in the preseason.
A fictional player, Cullingworth is from the from Mexico, via the Virgin Islands. He has gone 2-1 this season (one save, three blown) with a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 58 games.

[Orcin]

I am back from my trip also. I finished run #3 with the 2018 Cardinals and won the division by 5 games over the Cubs. The final record was 94-68 and that was pretty remarkable considering the injuries to the starting rotation. At one point in early September, my rotation included CMart, Flaherty, Chris Ellis, Austin Gomber, and Daniel Poncedeleon. Not that far removed from real life, but my Poncedeleon didn't pitch like the real life counterpart.

I stuck very close to the real roster this time, except that I did not trade Pham. Ozuna and Fowler had great years, giving me the terrific outfield that the real Cardinals expected coming out of spring training. Carpenter hit third all year and was a bit short of MVP material but still very good.

I will play the Nationals in the NLDS. Third time is the charm?