Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

June 16, 2003

Subject: First-Year Player Draft

The Orlando Sharks had the first overall pick in yesterday’s draft, and selected SP Keith “Silencer” Wilson, an 18-year-old high school right-hander that Candelaria says “has dominant hurler written all over him”.

Louisville selections:

Round 1 (#29 overall): RF José Cruz (age 21, bats L), San Diego State, 5-star potential, contact hitter with outstanding power and a great eye, good defensive skills with a strong arm, good speed, hit .300 with .820 OPS against good competition, normal slot demand, excellent intangibles. Our system is weak in the outfield and I just could not resist the name. There were no “can’t miss” starting pitchers left on the board.

Round 2 (#106 overall): MR Francisco Rodriguez (age 22, throws L), Pepperdine, 5-star potential, good stats (7-2, 1.98, 1.10 WHIP, 9K/9ip) against great competition, sinkerball pitcher with 73% GB ratio and great pick-off move, great intangibles, hard to sign, yes I was seduced by the name again but Candelaria also recommended him

Round 3 (#137 overall): SP Jorge Merced (age 18, throws R), Culver City, CA, 5-star potential, completely dominated average competition, throws 89-90 mph fastball, screwball, undeveloped changeup, good intangibles, shouldn’t be too hard to sign

Round 4 (#167 overall): CL Mike Guthrie (age 22, throws R), Northwestern, 5-star potential, elite bullpen prospect, fastball/splitter, exceptional stuff with great movement and control, 2.61 ERA and 1.20 WHIP vs. great competition as a starter in college, work ethic is a concern, should be able to sign him, good current ratings and will begin in AA

Round 5 (#197 overall): SP Cristobal Arredondo (age 20, throws R), Washington University, 5-star potential, odd combination of cutter/curveball, needs to develop third pitch but could default to a great reliever, 3.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP as a starter against great competition, great intangibles, could start at Class-A, rated extremely hard to sign but I have money to throw at him


The priority was pitching after taking the best player available in round one. I don’t usually go for bullpen pitchers with high draft picks but I need some young depth to take over for expensive older relievers and the college kids will develop fast.

[Orcin]

June 17, 2003 (BNN)

Subject: Bob Todd Records Save #500

Bob Todd has set a new standard for his specialty. The New York Monarchs closer became the first in history to record 500 saves in a 3-2 victory over the Philadelphia Firebirds at Ballpark of Philadelphia. The all-time saves leader told reporters after the game, "I get the ball and I try to win the game. When I get a save, my team wins and really that's all that matters. I'm happy to reach the milestone but it's just that. The more important part is that I've helped my club win." While picking up the save, Todd allowed no hits and no runs in 1 innings of work.

Despite the dejection of their team having lost the game, even a number of Firebirds fans were seen honoring Todd as they joined in the standing ovation as he recorded the final out on his historic save. "That was pretty special," he said. "Something I won't soon forget."

During his career Todd has appeared in 909 games. He has a 67-49 won-lost mark, 1.67 ERA and 1262 strikeouts in 1002 innings.

[Orcin]

June 23, 2003

Subject: Week 11 Notes

Record: 38-32, .543, - GB
Position: 1st place (tied with St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 345 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 274 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .695 – 9th in Federal
Power Ranking: 98.7 (10th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100

• Last week (3-3): 1-2 at San Francisco, 2-1 vs. Sacramento
• Dennis Morgan was 2-5 with a grand slam and 6 RBIs in a 9-6 comeback win over San Francisco. We trailed 6-0 in the game after seven innings.
• We return for a twelve-game home stand, starting with the struggling Sacramento Outlaws (26-41) on Thursday. We need to win at least 8 games during this stretch.
• Juan Aponte was injured in a collision at a base. He has a strained oblique and will miss three weeks.
• Tom John was added to the 40-man roster and called up to replace Aponte. He will make his major league debut this weekend at second base.
• Ron Sims made his case to stay in the rotation by beating Sacramento 2-0 in only 2 hours and 15 minutes. He pitched 8 innings for the first time this year on only 91 pitches, allowing 4 hits and 1 walk.
• Chip Davidson gave up a three-run homer in the first inning and that was all in 7 innings. He got the loss (4-1) because we did not score in 8 innings off Sacramento rookie Victor Gutierrez.
• This week: 3 vs. Dallas, 3 vs. Indianapolis


The following players from our farm system were selected for the All-Star team in their leagues.
• Lexington (AAA): SP Johnny Savard (5-3, 3.27), 2B Tom John (.306/.412/.461), CF Dave Nelson (.287/.403/.482)
• Dayton (AA): SP Eric Davis (7-4, 3.10)
• Evansville (A): none
• Chip Davidson would have been selected (AAA) if I had not called him up already.

[lotsofluck]

It took me a few hours but I finally read all 23 pages.

Congratulations on creating such a great dynasty and i can only hope that when I try to make one it is as interesting as yours.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by lotsofluck

It took me a few hours but I finally read all 23 pages.

Congratulations on creating such a great dynasty and i can only hope that when I try to make one it is as interesting as yours.

Thanks! I admire your perseverance.

[Orcin]

June 27, 2003

Ron Sims pitched a great ballgame against Indianapolis but, trailing 2-1, he was lifted in the home half of the seventh for a pinch-hitter. Mario Chavez pitched the eighth inning and allowed a third Indianapolis run to make the comeback attempt tougher. I was already steaming when Bryan McConnell took the mound for the top of the ninth. Frustration from missed opportunities at the plate, sloppy fielding behind our pitchers, and another poor outing by the bullpen was about to boil over.

McConnell quickly surrendered a two straight singles, and an error on the second hit allowed both runners to advance into scoring position. This was followed by a hit batsman to load the bases, and a wild pitch that scored another insurance run. The wild pitch didn’t really matter because McConnell promptly served up a three-run homer. The score was now 7-1 and this game was history.

I called down to the dugout and told Byrne, “Don’t you dare pick up that bullpen phone.” He didn’t. He (we) left McConnell out there for batting practice while he allowed a total of nine runs on nine hits, two walks, and a hit batsman. McConnell’s ERA ballooned to 7.84, but I wasn’t about to waste another arm just to protect his stats. Byrne didn’t need any convincing because he had a game tomorrow.

It was a statement. I was sending the bullpen a message. Just to make sure that they got the message, Bryan McConnell was demoted to AAA after the game. MacIntosh was recalled to replace McConnell on the roster. He couldn’t be any worse (famous last words) plus I want to showcase him in case there is a potential trade partner out there.

[Orcin]

June 30, 2003

Subject: Week 12 Notes

Record: 42-34, .553, - GB
Position: 1st place (3 game lead)
Runs Scored: 379 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 304 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .690 – 11th in Federal
Power Ranking: 102.5 (9th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100


• Last week (4-2): 3-0 vs. Dallas, 1-2 vs. Indianapolis
• SS Pierre-Louis Simon felt some pain while throwing to first and was diagnosed with a “tired arm”. He was sidelined last week on the advice of the team doctor.
• Duncan Bland was 3-4 with an RBI, leading the team to a 3-2 win in the finale against Dallas. Bland is now hitting .313 with 10 HR and 29 RBI in 38 games.
• Indianapolis scored 11 runs in the ninth inning to beat us 14-1 on Friday. You know all about this game from the previous post.
• Todd Fletcher salvaged a game from Indianapolis with a complete game, allowing one run on six hits, no walks, and striking out seven in the 6-1 win. Fletcher is 9-3 with a 2.74 ERA.
• St. Louis lost three straight to Seattle while we were sweeping Dallas. They have lost 8 of 10 and are 9-17 in June.
• We signed the last of our draft picks and all have reported to their assigned minor league teams.
• Jorge Figueroa (12-3, 1.93) was placed on the disabled list with a sore elbow. He is expected to be out four weeks and will probably miss the all-star game for the first time in his 13-year career.
• This week: 3 vs. Chicago, 4 at Sacramento

[Orcin]

July 1, 2003 (BNN)

Subject: Federal League Selects Rookie Star of the Month

Duncan Bland's eyes seem to light up whenever he sees the baseball. The young Louisville catcher has been hitting everything in sight for the better part of a month.

In June he was voted the Rookie of the Month Award. During the month he hit .338 with 3 doubles, no triples and 8 home runs. Bland also scored 14 times and drove in 21 runs.

This year Bland is hitting .309 with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs to his credit. He has gotten on base at a .381 clip and scored 24 runs.

**********

We recovered from our disastrous 12-15 May to post a 17-11 record in June.

Bland is our Player of the Month for June. Our Pitcher of the Month is closer Lucas Sanders. Yes, I give the bullpen grief in every post, but let’s take time to recognize good performance too. Sanders appeared in 11 games in June. He saved 7 and the other four were not save opportunities. He allowed no runs and only three hits in ten innings of work. He did walk five but still turned in a 0.83 WHIP so I can’t complain about those walks either.

The trade for Sanders looks good right now. Flores is 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA in 7 starts for Houston. Jose Manuel is starting at 2B for the Stars and hitting .211. I shudder to think where our bullpen would be without Sanders.

[Orcin]

July 1, 2003 (BNN)

Subject: Legends’ Garza Wins AAA Best Hurler Honor

Any time a rookie makes a splash on the scene, it's got to be great for his career potential. Just ask Edgardo Garza, 23, who put together a stellar month out of the pen. The Lexington Legends closer kept the opposition off balance all month as he held them to a .220 average and walked away with the AAA Western League Pitcher of the Month award for June. Garza posted a 2-0 mark and a 0.66 ERA in 12 relief appearances. In 13.2 innings, he had 8 saves, 16 strikeouts, and 2 walks.

This season Garza has 10 saves. In 15 relief appearances he has tossed 17.2 innings, struck out 19 and issued 3 walks with a 3-0 record. The Lexington closer has recorded a 0.51 ERA and allowed the opposition to hit .203 when he is in the game.


**********


So, let’s review… the major league bullpen is struggling (to put it mildly). This kid is ripping up AAA. We demoted McConnell and brought up… MacIntosh? Really? MacIntosh?

Ok, you have to understand something here. Garza has a grand total of 18 innings above AA. Yes, he is killing it. But I don’t want to ruin him by sticking him in the fire of a pennant race before he is ready. Let’s see another month of this at least. He is clearly in my plans for next season. Maybe later this season, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

[Orcin]

July 7, 2003

Subject: Week 13 Notes

Record: 47-36, .566, - GB
Position: 1st place (5.5 game lead)
Runs Scored: 428 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 340 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .686 – 12th in Federal
Power Ranking: 107.9 (4th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100

• Last week (5-2): 1-2 vs. Chicago, 4-0 at Sacramento
• The St. Louis Hawks were 33-22 on June 6. Since then, they are 8-19.
• We fell short (7-5) of the goal of eight wins on the long home stand. Going 2-4 against the likes of Indy and Chicago (two of the three worst teams in the league) is not acceptable.
• Dennis Morgan was 3-4/HR and Chris Brown was 2-4/HR/5 RBI in Monday’s 9-2 win over Chicago. Westaway went 8 innings to even his record at 6-6 (2.87 ERA).
• Morgan capped off a great week with another 3-4 game on Sunday, including home run #32. Westaway picked up win #7.
• Infielder Howard Archuleta was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. He is expected to miss five weeks.
• Rookie SS Hayden Key was called up to replace Archuleta until Aponte returns from the D/L. The infield depth is seriously thin now due to injuries.
• Washington SP Steve Nelson (10-6, 2.94) threw a no-hitter against Boston.
• Top prospect Pedro Dominguez went 5-6 in a game at Dayton (AA).
• This week: 3 vs. Phoenix, 4 vs. Salt Lake City, leading up to the All-Star break


Former players update: Salt Lake City CF Harry Hall has raised his average to .287 with 12 HR and 44 RBI. Rodney Wright is hitting .296 with 43 RBI while playing 3B. The Salt Lake City Bees are in first place, due in no small part to these two ex-Colonels. Payne is not playing at the level these guys are but at least he is doing what I wanted, getting on base via walks and adding some speed to the lineup. Still, you would have to say the Bees won this trade at the moment, ignoring the money of course. It’s hard to ignore the money from my point of view, since that’s the reason I made the trade in the first place.

[Mecza]

I like the style you are using for this dynasty report. I notice your league is more hitter friendly too, especially considering you are using the DH.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Mecza

I like the style you are using for this dynasty report. I notice your league is more hitter friendly too, especially considering you are NOT using the DH.

I corrected this for you, but I think that's what you meant.

My 30 teams scored 20,958 runs last season. I set my league modifiers to mimic the 2011 season each year. The total runs scored in 2011 was 20,808. That's pretty close, but I am not sure what to make of the DH usage in one of the real leagues vs. neither for me. I do seem to have more outliers on the top end of the HR/RBI/AVG stats, so maybe that's how my league compensates for the rule difference.

[Orcin]

July 7, 2003

Subject: Trade Deadline Approaching

The time is now to make a move for a starting pitcher… or not.

Phoenix is in town and I met with GM Mike Roy to discuss their top starter, Daniel Espinosa (7-6, 3.56). The 25-year-old right-hander is signed for 2003-05 at $11.5 million per year, so a trade for him would be complicated because of salary constraints for both clubs. However, there are not a lot of starters in the top 25 that are paid less than $15 million (Westaway money), and obtaining any of them would be challenging.

It became obvious after an hour of exchanging ideas that we could not reach a deal that would satisfy both parties. However, the conversation was extremely useful, because the process provided an excellent understanding of which players on my roster had value to other teams and what it might take to complete a deal for a front-line starter.

I will begin by saying there are no players on my roster that Phoenix would accept in a straight trade for Espinosa, but Phoenix will take Dennis Morgan and a minor prospect for Espinosa. The first group of players listed below could be traded for a top starting pitcher like Espinosa if combined with some additional consideration:

LF Dennis Morgan, SP Robert Westaway, SS Pierre-Louis Simon, C Duncan Bland, CF Pedro Dominguez, SP Chip Davidson

This next group of players is each worth roughly 50% of a player in the first group:

1B Chris Brown, 3B Lucio Martinez, 2B Russell Bennett, SP Todd Fletcher, SP Ricardo Martinez

The only player that could be traded alone for any top pitcher is young, club-controlled, MVP-candidate Dennis Morgan. He is not for sale. Obviously, it doesn’t make much sense to just swap one of my existing starters for a different starter. It would take at least two or three of the listed players excluding Morgan to convince another team to part with a top starter signed to an affordable (below $15M) contract. I don’t intend to gut my starting lineup by trading two or three players in order to strengthen the rotation.

So, I am left with one option to significantly upgrade the rotation… trade the BNN #3 prospect Pedro Dominguez plus multiple other prospects. The alternative is to trade a group of lesser prospects and/or players in return for a starter that is no better than Ron Sims or Ray Alexander. I don’t like the value exchange on either of those options, so I have discarded the idea of trading for a starting pitcher. I want to see Dominguez in a Colonels uniform someday. I think he has a chance to be a great one.

I don’t have any other deals on the burner right now, but I am sitting by the phone in case a GM calls me begging to acquire Mike MacIntosh.

[Orcin]

CBA STANDINGS
Monday, July 7, 2003

I waited until the end of a week to compile this data, so it’s not exactly half of the season but very close.



San Diego remains a regular-season powerhouse. Salt Lake City improved their offense via the trade with us
and it is working well for them so far, but their bullpen is worse than ours. None of the second-place teams
are far behind and the wild card could be a real dogfight. We need to win our division.



Philadelphia made a big jump from last season to lead the Central Division. The other two divisions are
controlled by familiar teams, but all of these races are competitive. This wild card race could also be a scramble.

[Orcin]

LEAGUE LEADERS
Monday, July 7, 2003



Dennis Morgan is on a pace for 60 HRs and 140 RBIs. Incredibly, he doesn’t lead the majors in either category.
Brock Richardson of Dallas is another strong Federal League MVP candidate.
Jon Schultz of Charlotte is running away with the Triple Crown in the Patriot League.
The CBA has never had a batting Triple Crown.

[Orcin]

LOUISVILLE COLONELS
Monday, July 7, 2003



I have finally settled on a batting order that I like. It is producing runs at a good pace. We lead the majors in home runs thanks to Dennis Morgan, but the rest of the lineup is not bad in the power department. You don’t see the speed numbers here, but they are shown in the stats screen below. We steal enough bases to manufacture a run here and there, and the percentage is high among those that are allowed to run often.

The starting rotation is good enough to win the division, but Candelaria continues to advise me that Sims is a weak link. He has good outings and bad ones, and there is no question that we are a stronger team with him in the bullpen and one of those lefties out of it. Alexander has looked really good in four starts at AAA (4-0, 1.98), so I am about ready to pull him back up here and send Patterson to Lexington.

I like the looks of Trejo, even though he is a rookie and has had a few bad outings. He can also go multiple innings and has been unhittable at times. MacIntosh is on a very short leash, because Garza continues to dominate AAA hitters (0.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Yeah, I know. What am I waiting for? Next year’s bullpen could be here today.




I just can’t help myself. I have to arrange my own page views. It’s a compulsion. I finally came up with a way to present the stats that I like. This is the custom format that I use for my own roster screens. It is busy, but I am sure that you use most of the same stats.

[5cards]

Oh great Orcin, I would like to pick your brain if you don't object...

Obviously you've done a great job with your dynasty so far (oddly, your rankings look a lot like my Cards at the end of the season I just finished... lol). I was wondering if you had considered shifting Russel Bennett and Pierre-Louis Simon around in terms of the batting order. While Simon appears to be doing relatively well as a leadoff man, he does have a much higher strikeout-to-walk rate than Bennett does. Thus, while Simon is hitting 40 points better than Bennett, the difference in their OBP is only five points.

I would tend to agree with your scout that Sims is a potential weak link. He seems to like giving up the long ball. However, I am rather concerned with your bullpen overall. I only see one reliever with a WHIP below 1.00. Additionally, there are a few very painful ERAs in the bullpen as well. I know that MacIntosh is living on borrowed time and Trejo is a rookie, but I would strongly consider moving Trejo back to the minors for some further conditioning and work and looking to see if you have talent available to fill those gaps. I'm also very concerned about Chris Patterson's numbers. He seems to be elevating the ball which is causing a lower G/F ratio and his 6:1 H/HR ratio is second-highest on the team (tied with your closer but behind MacIntosh).

Again, these are my thoughts from here at the "peanut gallery" where I sit with no OOTP to play until I get home tonight at 8:30 PM.

[Orcin]

Good comments, thanks for the input!

Bennett does leadoff when Simon takes a day off. He is ok there and has the speed. The problem is that Simon expects a spot at the top of the order. Bennett just expects "starting lineup". I expect Simon to take off in the second half.

You aren't the only one concerned with the bullpen! I think you have identified the same weaknesses that I have, and you have some good suggestions there. I have some ideas and changes are coming to be sure.

[Mecza]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I corrected this for you, but I think that's what you meant.

My 30 teams scored 20,958 runs last season. I set my league modifiers to mimic the 2011 season each year. The total runs scored in 2011 was 20,808. That's pretty close, but I am not sure what to make of the DH usage in one of the real leagues vs. neither for me. I do seem to have more outliers on the top end of the HR/RBI/AVG stats, so maybe that's how my league compensates for the rule difference.

Yup, that's what I mean. I only say this because in post 325, your starter ERA was at 3.83 (which would place you in the top third of the Federal League) while my league set-up (20 teams, no divisions or sub-leagues, 152 game balanced schedule, modern-day set-up) would place a 3.83 as very slightly below average and you have monstrous RBI totals at the tippy top. Just interesting to note.

Keep it up though! I expect hundreds of pages in this thread when all is said and done.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal thinks Mr. the Cards is too scientific for the common man. Who calculates OBP in his free time? The boys in Sal's shop cannot think this is normal. All this chatter about strikeout to walk ratio makes Sal's head hurt. One of Sal's wives talked all the time about the ratio between time for her and time for Sal. This was never 50/50, and it gave Sal the headache. And drained Sal's bank account at a rate better than 50/50 too.

Sal wonders if Duncan Bland can hit in the #2 spot. Sal thinks that might be the one move to make with the lineup. And then Sal will just remind you, Mr. Orcin, that the Louie-ville boys are in the first place. Do not worry so much. Come see Sal. He will put the hot towel on your face and give you the relaxing shave. The boys are doing fine.