Derrek Lee - Triple Crown? - Page 2

jaxmagicman · 06-02-2005, 04:02 PM

Ivan Rodriquez would have had a good chance of winning the batting crown if it had not been for Ichiro's hot streak the whole second half of the season.

sebastian0622 · 06-02-2005, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dagrims

He's already had his two hot streaks for the season - April and May. He's 16 for his last 25 with seven walks, 12 runs and 12 RBI.

If he hits .282 over the rest of the season (the highest full season batting average he's had) and gets a total of 600 AB, he'll wind up with a .312 batting average. That won't win the batting crown. Let's assume a .340 average will be needed to win it, which is not unrealistic considering the last NL batting champion to hit less than .350 was Gwynn in 1992. In a 600 AB season he'd have to hit .322 over the next four months. That's a four month hot streak according to your definition, coming on the heels of a two month performance in which he hit more than 100 points higher than his lifetime average.

I think the chances of him hitting 50 points over his lifetime average over the remainder of the season are very small. His batting average has a 2004 Ivan Rodriguez feel to it, in my opinion. I'd love to see him be in the running for it late in the season, though.

I was thinking of this argument when I was setting the odds--that basically Lee would have to hot streak the whole way out. But he wouldn't. He could hit .280 for a bit, hit .390 for a bit, etc. He'd only have to "hot streak" it the whole way if he hit exactly .320 during that streak.

I get your point, but there is also the issue of: exactly how good of a hitter is Lee? Is his baseline average .280? Or has he become a better hitter? Is he now a legit .300 hitter? Very possibly, I say, based on what we've seen. I mean, the odds of a .300 hitter hitting .380 this deep into a season are a lot better than the odds of a .280 hitter doing it. Of course, we're never able to really pinpoint any hitter's true abilities. I guess that's what makes this fun.

It should also be mentioned that his .280 was at a different park on a different team. That makes it even harder to pinpoint what Lee should be hitting. It'll be interesting to, at the end of the year, look back from this date on and see what he hit.

Dagrims · 06-02-2005, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

I was thinking of this argument when I was setting the odds--that basically Lee would have to hot streak the whole way out. But he wouldn't. He could hit .280 for a bit, hit .390 for a bit, etc. He'd only have to "hot streak" it the whole way if he hit exactly .320 during that streak.

Your definition of hot streak should have been .350+ then. Regarding the rest of your post, you raise some valid questions. He's certainly in a better park for his batting average, and he's at the tail-end of the right age group for a significant improvement in hitting skills.

Another point in his favor: looking at his career splits, his two worst months (outside of October) have been April and May. He's been great in June and very good in July. He's also got a nice career stat line at Wrigley.

swampdragon · 06-03-2005, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dagrims

Your definition of hot streak should have been .350+ then. Regarding the rest of your post, you raise some valid questions. He's certainly in a better park for his batting average, and he's at the tail-end of the right age group for a significant improvement in hitting skills.

Another point in his favor: looking at his career splits, his two worst months (outside of October) have been April and May. He's been great in June and very good in July. He's also got a nice career stat line at Wrigley.

And just to prove Dagrims right agian, he goes 5/5 on June 1.

TonyJ · 06-03-2005, 12:03 AM

There's no question he is having his peak season. It's extremely doubtful that he wins the triple crown but I would give him even odds for the MVP

sebastian0622 · 06-03-2005, 12:03 AM

23-1

Driver 8 · 06-03-2005, 12:25 AM

5-5 last night...3-3 tonight (with a pair of walks).

swampdragon · 06-03-2005, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyJ

There's no question he is having his peak season. It's extremely doubtful that he wins the triple crown but I would give him even odds for the MVP

I think he's unlikely to get any part of the Triple Crown. I picked Pujols for the MVP at the beginning of the year and see no reason to change my mind yet.

TonyJ · 06-03-2005, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

I think he's unlikely to get any part of the Triple Crown. I picked Pujols for the MVP at the beginning of the year and see no reason to change my mind yet.

Yeah, I'd give him even money as well. Lee is well above his established norms, after all.

JDOldSchool · 06-03-2005, 02:52 AM

Lee is now hitting .389.

Which is more likely, Lee hits .400 or Lee hits for the Triple Crown? I doubt either will happen, but I tend to think .400 would be more likely even though he's never been a really high average guy.

edrooney · 06-03-2005, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

I think he's unlikely to get any part of the Triple Crown. I picked Pujols for the MVP at the beginning of the year and see no reason to change my mind yet.

I'd stick with Pujols too.

AnotherAlias · 06-05-2005, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edrooney

I'd stick with Pujols too.

As long as you aren't sticking to pooh-holes, I'm behind you a hundred percent!!!

edrooney · 06-06-2005, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnotherAlias

As long as you aren't sticking to pooh-holes, I'm behind you a hundred percent!!!

Heh heh. My wife still blushes when they say his name (well, she is English).

06-02-2005, 04:02 PM	#21
jaxmagicman Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Retired defloration-maker living in Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 7,801	Ivan Rodriquez would have had a good chance of winning the batting crown if it had not been for Ichiro's hot streak the whole second half of the season. __________________ See ID Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

06-03-2005, 12:03 AM	#25
TonyJ Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Gassin' Kurds Posts: 2,019	There's no question he is having his peak season. It's extremely doubtful that he wins the triple crown but I would give him even odds for the MVP __________________ My Podcasts: Talk Democratic Dysfunction Name Two Bands with Andy and Andy

06-03-2005, 12:03 AM	#26
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	23-1

06-03-2005, 12:25 AM	#27
Driver 8 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: gurnee, il Posts: 397	5-5 last night...3-3 tonight (with a pair of walks).

06-03-2005, 02:52 AM	#30
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	Lee is now hitting .389. Which is more likely, Lee hits .400 or Lee hits for the Triple Crown? I doubt either will happen, but I tend to think .400 would be more likely even though he's never been a really high average guy.