Most Un-Beatable baseball record - Page 2

fantom1979 · 07-02-2004, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rogmax11

You guys are probably right about Cy Young and his W/L totals, but every time I see a chart listing career strikeout leaders, and see Nolan Ryan with 5714 ( or whatever ), while number two is at 4362 ( or whatever ), I shake my head at the sheer implausibility of that achievement. If I got results like that from OOTP I would be screaming in disgust at the unrealistic stat production.

I shake my head at the k leaderboard as well, but look at wins:

1. Cy Young 511
2. Walter Johnson 417
3. Pete Johnson/Mathewson 373

94 wins (20 a year for 5 years) between 1st and 2nd. 138 wins between 1st and 3rd (9 more wins then Pat Hentgen for his career.)

TexasLonghorns · 07-02-2004, 03:25 PM

I also think Hugh Duffy's .440 batting avg in 1894 will never be broken.

fantom1979 · 07-02-2004, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexasLonghorns

I also think Hugh Duffy's .440 batting avg in 1894 will never be broken.

If Pudge keeps having months like he had in June, he would make a run

Duffy went 237 for 539, very impressive

Rizon · 07-02-2004, 04:40 PM

Roger Maris's 61 HRs in a season.

Go Tribe · 07-02-2004, 04:45 PM

Yankees with TWO players with parasites

White Sox Matt · 07-02-2004, 05:19 PM

I will say both Young's win record (511) and Walter Johnsons Shutout Record of 110.

Kaline · 07-02-2004, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rizon

Roger Maris's 61 HRs in a season.

Or Lou Gehrigs.

streetballer67 · 07-02-2004, 06:18 PM

I think with steriod testing Bonds' HR season total is pretty safe.

Rizon · 07-02-2004, 06:24 PM

It will be interesting which changes MLB goes through over the next 50/75/100 years. I'll bet back in the 1800s, they couldnt imagine a pitcher not throwing 500 innings a year and 474,000 CGs.

Maybe records like doubles might go the way of triples if there is a new wave of smaller parks. Who knows. Pretty interesting to think about, nonetheless.

Tib · 07-02-2004, 06:29 PM

Cy Young's 511 wins will never be equaled. But saying that is like shooting fish in a barrel. One of the "attainable" records I don't think will be broken is Ricky Henderson's stolen base record. The game has changed, the long ball is here to stay, and the importance of the stolen base has been minimized by it.

streetballer67 · 07-02-2004, 07:21 PM

If you think about it...there are hundreds of records in the MLB that seem like they will never be broken.

Long_Long_Name · 07-02-2004, 07:56 PM

I think all records can be broken. If they've been done a first time, there's no reason they never will be again. Of course, in today's game, alot of records seem unattainable, but if the game changed significantly, perhaps some records would change.

Anyway, Gossage never pitched more than 141.7 innings in a season with less than 29 starts. The record, I believe, is Dr. Michael Grant Marshall's 208.3 IP in 1974. Marshall published an article a while ago about how the "traditional" pitching motion hurt pitchers' arms when it's not really necessary. I can't find that article, however.

Kaline · 07-03-2004, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

I think all records can be broken. If they've been done a first time, there's no reason they never will be again. Of course, in today's game, alot of records seem unattainable, but if the game changed significantly, perhaps some records would change.

Anyway, Gossage never pitched more than 141.7 innings in a season with less than 29 starts. The record, I believe, is Dr. Michael Grant Marshall's 208.3 IP in 1974. Marshall published an article a while ago about how the "traditional" pitching motion hurt pitchers' arms when it's not really necessary. I can't find that article, however.

Yup, I got the names/numbers mixed up (it was on some show a few weeks ago, remembered them talking about Gossage then Marshalls 208.3 and just combined them).

RayofHope · 07-03-2004, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by matskralc

Will White's 680 innings (or 2906 batters faced) in 1879.

That's just bollocks.

Did you intentionally go looking for the most irrlevant record ever?

(No offense intended to the dead man or any of his living relatives, if they are even aware of this record).

I thinmk, WITHOUT a doubt, the single HARDEST record to beat is going to be Joe D's hit streak.

Every time a player gets to 20 or 30 games on a hit streak these days it's an accomplishment, and the media starts talking about Dimaggio's streak . . . it's a complete and utter joke.

I don't know that record will ever be broken.

Period.

If anyone can present a viable argument as to why it will be broken, I'd love to hear it . . . because the stamina, skill and concentration needed to hit in one third of your teams games in a row is simply superhuman.

Today's players just aren't up for that sort of challenge.

matskralc · 07-03-2004, 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RayofHope

Today's players just aren't up for that sort of challenge.

I don't think anybody's up for throwing 700 innings, either.

swampdragon · 07-03-2004, 02:58 AM

If you bet a record will never fall because no one will be that good again, you'll be wrong. Eventually, someone will break Dimaggio's record and someone will break Ripken's record. The unassailable records are the ones that can't be broken because the game has changed. The perfect example of that is Young's 511 wins. (although matskralc is right as well, and that was an 84 game season).

Long_Long_Name · 07-03-2004, 03:52 AM

Perhaps the game will change again and allow pitchers to accumualte more wins- we'll see. NickG and I are currently trying to find the odds of someone hitting in 56 consecutive games (we already found out that the average hitter will get this kind of streak once every 5555 years, we're currently trying to find out the odds for an actual good hitter).

Long_Long_Name · 07-03-2004, 04:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RayofHope

If anyone can present a viable argument as to why it will be broken, I'd love to hear it . . . because the stamina, skill and concentration needed to hit in one third of your teams games in a row is simply superhuman.

Today's players just aren't up for that sort of challenge.

Major League Baseball has existed for somewhere in-between 100 and 130 years. During that time span, only one man got 56 consecutive games with a hit or more, and that's Joe Dimaggio. Now, there isn't a drastic difference between Dimaggio's time and current baseball as far as the "hit" statistic goes. The average hitter hits for an average of, say, .260 (.257 in 1942 AL, .262 in 2003 NL). Assuming that he gets 4 AB per game, he gets about 70% of chances to get a hit in a game. Raised to the 56th power, that's about 2 in a billion. Basically, you take any 56-game span in anybody's career and you have 2 in a billion chances that he will have hit in 56 straight games. However, if a player gets one hundred 56 games streaks per year (a little more today, a little less using former scheduling), we find out that in a 20-team league, over a 100 year span, produces around 1 800 000 streaks of the kind, and only one has reached 56 games, which is 555 times as high as the statistical data shows us,. which makes Dimaggio's streak absolutely phenomenal, statistically speaking. However, this takes into account that ALL players hit for .260, which is, of course, a reason why the gap between Dimaggio and the probability is so high. There's also the fact that I estimated many things, which can flaw my data.

I've been on this for a few hours now, and I'm tired. Tomorrow I'll come with a more in-depth analysis of the possibility of a .350 hitter of getting such a streak.

randomlefty10 · 07-03-2004, 05:00 AM

I would first classify records into two heaps

First are the unattainable (at THIS time) because of the shift in eras. This lot includes the records of Walter Johnson, Ed Walsh, etc.

Second are the records that could concieveably be challenged because the changes in the game don't prohibit a run at the particular record.

Discussing only the second category, I would have to say the Ripken's is definitely reachable. That was actually little to do with ability and everything to do with whatever you want to call it. (Also, on a side rant, I think this is one of the most overblown records ever. So what. the MLB season is long, there's nothing wrong with taking some time off here and there to refresh yourself. I bet Ripkin hurt his career stats by keeping that streak alive.)

Dimaggio's Streak is reachable but it takes a special kind of player. The best example I can come up with in today's game is Ichiro Suzuki. Rarely walks, rarely strikes out, can beat out infield hits, bats leadoff and is a high average hitter who can't really be pitched around cuz he'll swing at anything.

Second on the unbreakable records of Fernando Tatis and Johnny Vander Meer.

I could see Ryan's K record falling fairly easily with the increase in power hitters, strikeouts are on the rise across the board.

I would throw Ty Cobb's lifetime batting average into that category. Scouting is just too good now a days to allow anyone to bat 36whatever for their career.

Wilson's RBI record could be broken

Roses's hits could be broken.

The only factor is which players will still be playing decently when their 45 or so, cuz that's how Rose and Ryan got their records. What if ARod continues playing until he's 45, how many records would he break?

fantom1979 · 07-03-2004, 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randomlefty10

I could see Ryan's K record falling fairly easily with the increase in power hitters, strikeouts are on the rise across the board.

In todays game, it is very unlikely that Ryan's record will fall. To reach 5700 strikeouts you would have to pitch at least 5000 innings. At 5000 innings you would have to have a pitcher that averages 11.4 k/9, and only one pitcher in major league history has done that. Just to get to 5000 innings, you would have to pitch 200 innings for 25 years. Possible, maybe. But not likely. Lets take a couple modern day examples:

All stats are for entering the season:
Clemens, 40, 4278 IP, 4099 K (189 per season last 5 years) he would need to play until he is 48.
Johnson, 39, 3122 IP, 3871 K (308 average last 5 years) he would need to play until he is 45.
Pedro, 31, 2079 IP, 2426 K (241 average last 5) he would need to play until he is 45.
Wood, 26, 902 IP, 1065 K (213 average last 5) he would need to play until he is 48.
Prior. 22. 328 IP, 392 K (245 in his first full season) he would need to play until he is 43

Obviously Prior has the best shot, maybe Johnson if he can hang on for 6 more years, but Prior would have to stay healthy for the next 21 years. It is possible, but very unlikely.

View Poll Results: Which baseball record is most likely never to be beaten?
Cal Ripkens consecutive games played	15	41.67%
Career triples	4	11.11%
Other: Post your other options	17	47.22%
Voters: 36. You may not vote on this poll

07-02-2004, 04:40 PM	#24
Rizon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: SF Area, California Total Posts: 531,691 Posts: 2,369	Roger Maris's 61 HRs in a season. __________________ JML MILKSHAKES

07-02-2004, 06:24 PM	#29
Rizon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: SF Area, California Total Posts: 531,691 Posts: 2,369	It will be interesting which changes MLB goes through over the next 50/75/100 years. I'll bet back in the 1800s, they couldnt imagine a pitcher not throwing 500 innings a year and 474,000 CGs. Maybe records like doubles might go the way of triples if there is a new wave of smaller parks. Who knows. Pretty interesting to think about, nonetheless. __________________ JML MILKSHAKES

07-02-2004, 07:56 PM	#32
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	I think all records can be broken. If they've been done a first time, there's no reason they never will be again. Of course, in today's game, alot of records seem unattainable, but if the game changed significantly, perhaps some records would change. Anyway, Gossage never pitched more than 141.7 innings in a season with less than 29 starts. The record, I believe, is Dr. Michael Grant Marshall's 208.3 IP in 1974. Marshall published an article a while ago about how the "traditional" pitching motion hurt pitchers' arms when it's not really necessary. I can't find that article, however. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

07-03-2004, 03:52 AM	#37
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	Perhaps the game will change again and allow pitchers to accumualte more wins- we'll see. NickG and I are currently trying to find the odds of someone hitting in 56 consecutive games (we already found out that the average hitter will get this kind of streak once every 5555 years, we're currently trying to find out the odds for an actual good hitter). __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

07-02-2004, 03:25 PM	#22
TexasLonghorns Major Leagues Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 302	I also think Hugh Duffy's .440 batting avg in 1894 will never be broken.

07-02-2004, 04:45 PM	#25
Go Tribe All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 1,534 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	Yankees with TWO players with parasites

07-02-2004, 05:19 PM	#26
White Sox Matt Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2002 Location: Edgerton, WI Posts: 154	I will say both Young's win record (511) and Walter Johnsons Shutout Record of 110.

07-02-2004, 06:18 PM	#28
streetballer67 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Upstate NY Posts: 2,004	I think with steriod testing Bonds' HR season total is pretty safe.

07-02-2004, 06:29 PM	#30
Tib All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Paso Robles, CA Posts: 995	Cy Young's 511 wins will never be equaled. But saying that is like shooting fish in a barrel. One of the "attainable" records I don't think will be broken is Ricky Henderson's stolen base record. The game has changed, the long ball is here to stay, and the importance of the stolen base has been minimized by it.

07-02-2004, 07:21 PM	#31
streetballer67 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Upstate NY Posts: 2,004	If you think about it...there are hundreds of records in the MLB that seem like they will never be broken.

07-03-2004, 02:58 AM	#36
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	If you bet a record will never fall because no one will be that good again, you'll be wrong. Eventually, someone will break Dimaggio's record and someone will break Ripken's record. The unassailable records are the ones that can't be broken because the game has changed. The perfect example of that is Young's 511 wins. (although matskralc is right as well, and that was an 84 game season).

07-03-2004, 05:00 AM	#39
randomlefty10 All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 1,438	I would first classify records into two heaps First are the unattainable (at THIS time) because of the shift in eras. This lot includes the records of Walter Johnson, Ed Walsh, etc. Second are the records that could concieveably be challenged because the changes in the game don't prohibit a run at the particular record. Discussing only the second category, I would have to say the Ripken's is definitely reachable. That was actually little to do with ability and everything to do with whatever you want to call it. (Also, on a side rant, I think this is one of the most overblown records ever. So what. the MLB season is long, there's nothing wrong with taking some time off here and there to refresh yourself. I bet Ripkin hurt his career stats by keeping that streak alive.) Dimaggio's Streak is reachable but it takes a special kind of player. The best example I can come up with in today's game is Ichiro Suzuki. Rarely walks, rarely strikes out, can beat out infield hits, bats leadoff and is a high average hitter who can't really be pitched around cuz he'll swing at anything. Second on the unbreakable records of Fernando Tatis and Johnny Vander Meer. I could see Ryan's K record falling fairly easily with the increase in power hitters, strikeouts are on the rise across the board. I would throw Ty Cobb's lifetime batting average into that category. Scouting is just too good now a days to allow anyone to bat 36whatever for their career. Wilson's RBI record could be broken Roses's hits could be broken. The only factor is which players will still be playing decently when their 45 or so, cuz that's how Rose and Ryan got their records. What if ARod continues playing until he's 45, how many records would he break? __________________ Find your passion, embrace it, and leave the world a better place than you found it.