 |
 Home | Webstore
|
|
Latest News:
OOTP 27 Buy Now
- FHM 12 Available
- OOTP Go! 27 Available
Out of the Park Baseball 27 Buy Now! |
|
|
||||
| ||||
|
|||||||
| Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions General chat about the game... |
 |
|
|
Thread Tools |
04-25-2004, 02:39 PM
|
#21 |
|
Major Leagues
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 416
|
I have an LEGENDARY scout and my coaches are either Outstanding or Legendary. My pitcher went from mostly 30's and 40's ability to high 80s and 90s in that one year.
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 02:49 PM
|
#22 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Great, then there is definitely still an upside for Carlos.
Curious, are you seeing a lot of development stalling? In my limited playing time, I find that my league doesn't have a lot of 27-year-old pitchers who can hold their own (low 4.00 to high 3.00 ERA). Or is it just my relative small sample size (just a few years played)?
__________________
Rating Translator v0.93b (for OOTP 6/6.5) - released/updated on 03/13/05. - The function of this utility is to translate both the player's ability and talent ratings into stats (expected performance). Note: Rating Translator is now also hosted at jazzrack's CLB - OOTP Download. Click here for the discussion on "How computer GM may be made smarter by having built-in rating translation ability" |
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 03:54 PM
|
#23 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
The tale of a second pitcher...
I was digging my league (same one) and trying find out how widspread is this development stall syndrome. To my surprise, I find a " the swan" type pitcher. Player history: Rick Gadberry RHP/MR was drafted in 6th round out total of 7 rounds as a HS middle reliever prospect. Initially, he looks just like a part-time reliver in the future with above-average suff and *light* fastball. In his second year, Rick lost some feel to his stuff - his sole major upside. At the time, all hopes seems to be lost to Rick. In third year, Rick found back some feel on his stuff and also change his pitching tactics from throwing 4-seam fastballs to throwing cut-fastball exculsively (improved movement). After that, the potential of Rick just keep increasing in all aspect. Right now, judging from the potential rating of Rick, if he fully fullfill his potential, he will be one of the premier closer (assuming computer switch him) with Great stuff and extreme movement. note: Rick got traded in 6/22/2005 (from computer team to computer), so I include the scout/coach rating for both teams. The rating in 2006 is *TRUE* current rating (player editor ON). Code:
Rick Gadberry RHP (MR)
Birthday: 2/2/1981
Year Stuff Movement Control Velocity Record stars Coach Scout
2000 32/60 2/28 8/41 87-90 A 5-2-0 2.70 63.1IP 40K 23BB 1.0 Excellent Excellent
2001 14/24 6/32 8/45 87-90 A 2-0-0 3.97 22.2IP 23K 12BB 1.0 Outstanding Outstanding
2001 AA 0-0-0 5.15 50.2IP 41K 18BB Good
2002 14/42 8/51 10/59 87-90 A 9-5-4 3.21 84.0IP 59K 30BB 2.0 LEGENDARY LEGENDARY
2003 19/60 10/71 16/59 87-90 A 2-3-2 2.24 64.1IP 50K 35BB 3.0 Outstanding Good
2003 Major 0-0-0 15.0 3.0IP 2K 5BB
2004 19/79 10/87 16/76 87-90 A 2-3-1 3.55 50.2IP 30K 26BB 5.0 Excellent Outstanding
2004 Major 1-0-0 0.00 2.1IP 2K 0BB
2005 19/79 10/87 16/70 87-90 A 3-5-3 4.11 50.1IP 45K 24BB 5.0 Outstanding Outstanding
Average Good
2006 19/99 16/115 20/76 87-90
Year Spring Training Player Development
2000 good pitching sessions! (5/3) duration drops to 25 ...
improved his control!
2001 increased his throwing velocity! (5/10) lost some of his feel for his stuff...
2002 good pitching sessions! (4/5) improved his pure stuff!
improved his control! (4/5) movement has improved!
2003 increased his throwing velocity! (6/14) improved his pure stuff!
improved his control! (6/14) movement has improved!
2004 good pitching sessions! (8/9) improved his pure stuff!
lost some throwing velocity. (8/9) movement has improved!
(8/9) command improved!
2005 good pitching sessions! (4/12) duration raises to 19 ...
Injury History
none
By the way, I don't own Rick. How long do you think the computer GM will keep faith in Rick?  Thoughts on Rick and player development?
__________________
Rating Translator v0.93b (for OOTP 6/6.5) - released/updated on 03/13/05. - The function of this utility is to translate both the player's ability and talent ratings into stats (expected performance). Note: Rating Translator is now also hosted at jazzrack's CLB - OOTP Download. Click here for the discussion on "How computer GM may be made smarter by having built-in rating translation ability" |
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 04:33 PM
|
#24 |
|
All Star Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 1,534
Infractions: 1/0 (0)
|
Henry - If development is much more tied to the quality of coaches in v6, why doesn't the cpu try very hard to get outstanding or legendary coaches? is the development of cpu players tied to coaches as well or not? it's frustrating seeing teams build up huge cashpiles and then never win bids on top coaches. you can almost always bid $1,000,000 and get a great coach
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 04:42 PM
|
#25 |
|
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 3,417
|
i think it best to play with coaches/scouts off....
the game will be too easy if you have it enabled because you can get great coach/scouts easily... |
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 05:43 PM
|
#26 | |
|
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Area 51
Posts: 4,792
|
Quote:
__________________
"Ah man we're just hungry man" - Dovonte Edwards Bismarck Boy Scouts of the OTBL - league yes-man Ross Gload at baseball-reference.com Book Quotes and Book Lists |
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2004, 05:58 PM
|
#27 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
I am still neutral on which is the best way to play - scout/coach ON or scout/coach OFF. However, I like to have scout/coach ON not because it might make the game easier but rather scout/coach adds more "life" to the league.
Also, I am not too sure if minor managers has a large imapct on player development in OOTP6. Since my only previous experience on OOTP is with STB2003, I will just share the difference that I observed between STB2003 and OOTP6. It seems that player development on ability rating is really not that dependent to coach ability as is the case in STB2003. This is hinted in the stalled ability rating development of Carlos and Rick. From my experience with STB2003, player development stalling does NOT happens a lot. Well, I don't really know about OOTP5, so if someonce can share some insights, that will be great. I am not too sure about potential rating, I think it's probably heavily influenced by lucky/variance (for sure) and somewhat by minor managers. With LEGENDARY minor managers, I still experience potential rating drop with my top prospects. (nicknamed one!) I know my observation based my experience is informal and small-sample-sized, but this *trend* really sticks out to me.
__________________
Rating Translator v0.93b (for OOTP 6/6.5) - released/updated on 03/13/05. - The function of this utility is to translate both the player's ability and talent ratings into stats (expected performance). Note: Rating Translator is now also hosted at jazzrack's CLB - OOTP Download. Click here for the discussion on "How computer GM may be made smarter by having built-in rating translation ability" |
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 06:12 PM
|
#28 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Warning: lengthy post
It seems that this thread is not getting too many responses. That's fine. I start think more on player development stalling and decided to dig a bit deeper and do a small-scale study. I set up a new 2-league/12-team fictional league for this study. All modifiers are default value, scout/coach ON, and the draft is set to 7-round length. The league starts in 1981. (don't know why I pick the year) I decided to track the first draft class (1982, 84 players in total) and see how they progress over the course of 12 year. The reason that I pick 12-year analysis is that the youngset draftee (18yr) will be 30-year old by then, so that pretty much all player development should be in place. The tracking is done on player's *true* ratings using year-to-year CSV export. Both ability and talent ratings are track and analyzed. If there is any suggestion improving the study, please share it. I said I was going to track all 1982 draft class. However, I found it already took too much time after just the tracking of first round players. So, I just posting the first-round draftee for 1982 draft class. I hope I will have to time to finish analysis on the whole draft class. So, here is the data: Note: Diff P% is the potential difference percentage of the particular year against the initial potential (This is to show how the potential is rated in this year against the rating in 1982) Diff A% is the ability difference percentage against the PREVIOUS year. (This is to show the year-to-year growth/decline of the player's ability) % A/P is how much potential of the particular year has the player fullfilled as in ability. (total ability/total potential *100%) % A/Pi is how much *initial potential* (at drafting, 1982) has the player fullfiled as in ability. (totoal ability/total initial potential * 100%) Code:
1982 First Round Draft Class - Position Player Anthony Swart, SS Birthday: 6/23/1960 round: 1 pick: 1 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 380 363 363 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 369 369 369 Diff P% -4 -4 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -3 -3 -3 Total Ability 193 259 297 336 345 350 351 349 343 343 364 369 366 Diff A% 18 10 11 3 1 0 0 -2 0 6 1 -1 % A/P 50.8 71.3 81.7 97.3 99.9 101.4 101.6 101.3 99.5 99.4 98.7 99.9 99.1 % A/Pi 50.8 68.1 78.1 88.3 90.7 92.1 92.2 91.9 90.3 90.3 95.8 97.1 96.3 Injury History: Injured on 4/9/1982 with a Sore Shoulder, out for 3 days... Injured on 9/28/1983 with a Pulled Rotator Cuff Muscle, out for 3-4 weeks... Injured on 8/4/1992 with a Bruised Jaw, out for one week... Miguel Camacho, 2B Birthday: 4/21/1960 round: 1 pick: 5 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 243 226 226 226 266 266 213 213 207 196 190 190 190 Diff P% -7 -7 -7 9 9 -12 -12 -15 -19 -22 -22 -22 Total Ability 77 83 119 122 124 133 128 140 134 139 147 146 142 Diff A% 3 16 1 1 3 -3 6 -3 2 5 -1 -2 % A/P 31.6 36.9 52.8 54.2 46.8 50.2 60.0 65.6 64.9 70.8 77.6 77.1 74.9 % A/Pi 31.6 34.3 49.1 50.4 51.2 54.9 52.6 57.5 55.3 57.1 60.7 60.2 58.6 Injury History: Injured on 8/31/1984 with a Sprained Ankle, out for one week... Injured on 4/25/1985 with a Tight Shoulder, out for 6 days... Injured on 7/17/1986 with a Stiff Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 8/6/1991 with a Tight Shoulder, out for 3 days... Injured on 4/25/1994 with a Sore Shoulder, out for 4 days... Bill Wegner, 1B Birthday: 10/18/1963 round: 1 pick: 6 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Total Potential 241 241 255 255 246 212 234 234 231 231 231 231 231 Diff P% 0 6 6 2 -12 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 Total Ability 120 159 183 192 194 202 220 221 218 214 211 211 212 Diff A% 16 10 3 1 4 8 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 % A/P 49.6 65.9 71.8 75.1 78.9 95.4 94.0 94.3 94.2 92.4 91.3 91.4 91.9 % A/Pi 49.6 65.9 76.0 79.5 80.6 83.9 91.2 91.5 90.2 88.6 87.5 87.6 88.0 Injury History: NONE Lino Sanchez, C Birthday: 1/6/1960 round: 1 pick: 7 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 234 218 218 218 218 218 218 247 247 247 247 247 247 Diff P% -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 6 6 6 6 6 6 Total Ability 73 115 128 157 169 185 201 216 224 226 229 227 227 Diff A% 19 6 13 5 7 7 6 3 1 1 -1 0 % A/P 31.0 52.6 58.7 72.0 77.3 84.8 92.0 87.4 90.8 91.6 92.6 91.9 91.9 % A/Pi 31.0 49.0 54.7 67.1 72.1 79.0 85.7 92.3 95.8 96.7 97.7 97.0 97.0 Injury History: Injured on 5/11/1982 with a Bruised Heel, out for one week... Injured on 4/7/1983 with a Bruised Hand, out for 2 days... Injured on 8/18/1985 with a Bruised Ribs, out for one week... Injured on 4/1/1986 with a Bruised Finger, out for 2 days... Injured on 4/7/1986 with a Bruised Wrist, out for one week... Injured on 6/27/1987 with a Fractured Cheekbone, out for 6 weeks... Injured on 7/26/1988 with a Sprained Ankle, out for 3 days... Injured on 7/7/1991 with a Strained Achilles Tendon, out for 1-2 weeks... Injured on 9/8/1991 with a Strained Achilles Tendon, out for one week... Injured on 5/28/1994 with a Bruised Finger, out for 5 days... Marion Kerfoot, 1B Birthday: 2/16/1960 round: 1 pick: 9 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 253 218 200 200 200 200 181 181 181 181 191 191 191 Diff P% -14 -21 -21 -21 -21 -28 -28 -28 -28 -25 -25 -25 Total Ability 92 106 119 122 129 135 141 145 154 159 166 169 164 Diff A% 7 6 2 4 3 3 2 5 3 4 2 -3 % A/P 36.2 48.7 59.3 60.8 64.3 67.6 78.0 79.8 84.8 87.6 86.6 88.6 85.6 % A/Pi 36.2 42.0 46.8 48.0 50.8 53.4 55.8 57.1 60.7 62.6 65.4 66.9 64.6 Injury History: Injured on 6/20/1984 with a Pulled Hamstring Muscle, out for one week... Injured on 8/15/1985 with a Strained Abdominal Muscle, out for one week... Injured on 7/30/1986 with a Strained Thigh Muscle, out for 1-2 weeks... Injured on 4/12/1990 with a Pulled Hip Muscle, out for 6 days... Injured on 7/27/1990 with a Inflamed Hip Muscle, out for one week... Injured on 4/24/1991 with a Bruised Foot, out for 6 days... Injured on 6/9/1991 with a Inflamed Groin Muscle, out for 1-2 weeks... Ernest Dexter, LF Birthday: 3/29/1959 round: 1 pick: 11 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Total Potential 224 208 208 208 235 235 235 235 235 235 221 221 263 Diff P% -7 -7 -7 5 5 5 5 5 5 -1 -1 17 Total Ability 90 141 172 180 181 211 209 211 220 230 223 210 230 Diff A% 25 15 4 0 13 -1 1 4 4 -3 -6 8 % A/P 40.2 67.8 82.7 86.6 76.9 89.6 88.9 89.7 93.5 97.8 100.8 94.9 87.4 % A/Pi 40.2 63.0 76.8 80.4 80.7 94.0 93.2 94.1 98.1 102.6 99.5 93.7 102.6 Injury History: Injured on 6/8/1989 with a Pulled Back Muscle, out for one week... Injured on 7/25/1993 with a Pulled Abdominal Muscle, out for one week... Mario Vizcaino, 3B Birthday: 4/9/1963 round: 1 pick: 12 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Total Potential 237 221 237 220 221 221 221 221 221 221 248 248 212 Diff P% -7 0 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 5 5 -11 Total Ability 69 113 120 124 138 146 167 183 184 186 192 206 195 Diff A% 20 3 2 6 4 10 7 1 1 2 6 -5 % A/P 29.1 51.2 50.8 56.5 62.6 66.2 75.7 82.7 83.4 84.3 77.5 83.1 92.2 % A/Pi 29.1 47.7 50.8 52.5 58.4 61.8 70.6 77.1 77.8 78.6 81.1 87.0 82.4 Injury History: Injured on 8/7/1982 with a Tight Elbow, out for 1-2 weeks... Injured on 7/16/1987 with a Torn Calf Muscle, out for 6 weeks... Injured on 7/27/1989 with a Pulled Thigh Muscle, out for one week... 1982 First Round Draft Class - Pitcher Adrew Johnson, RHP Birthday: 3/14/1960 round: 1 pick: 2 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 242 225 187 171 208 201 201 201 201 187 187 187 180 Diff P% -7 -23 -29 -14 -17 -17 -17 -17 -23 -23 -23 -26 Total Ability 120 120 135 138 148 165 173 175 182 184 191 194 189 Diff A% 0 8 2 5 8 4 1 3 1 4 2 -3 % A/P 49.4 53.2 72.1 80.6 71.2 82.0 86.2 87.2 90.7 98.6 102.3 103.9 104.8 % A/Pi 49.4 49.4 55.7 57.0 61.2 68.1 71.6 72.4 75.3 76.2 79.0 80.3 77.9 Injury History: Injured on 7/24/1983 with a Inflamed Elbow Ligament, out for one week... Injured on 9/15/1989 with a Strained Bicep Tendon, out for 3-4 weeks... Gordon Martinez, LHP Birthday: 6/28/1959 round: 1 pick: 3 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Total Potential 178 178 162 162 162 145 145 145 145 170 170 156 156 Diff P% 0 -9 -9 -9 -19 -19 -19 -19 -4 -4 -12 -12 Total Ability 117 129 135 143 147 153 156 154 143 147 147 146 150 Diff A% 7 4 5 3 4 2 -1 -8 3 0 -1 2 % A/P 65.7 72.5 83.5 88.1 90.7 105.5 107.3 106.1 98.6 86.6 86.6 93.8 95.9 % A/Pi 65.7 72.5 76.0 80.2 82.5 86.0 87.4 86.5 80.3 82.8 82.8 82.2 84.0 Injury History: Injured on 8/20/1982 with a Stiff Shoulder, out for 4 days... Injured on 5/29/1983 with a Ruptured Tricep Tendon, out for 4-5 weeks... Injured on 6/2/1984 with a Tight Shoulder, out for 4 days... Injured on 8/17/1984 with a Tender Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 5/17/1985 with a Concussion, out for 1-2 weeks... Injured on 4/27/1986 with a Pulled Tricep Muscle, out for 8-9 weeks... Injured on 5/15/1991 with a Ruptured Elbow Ligament, out for 4 weeks... Gordon Donal Tartt, RHP Birthday: 5/28/1959 round: 1 pick: 4 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Total Potential 174 174 157 137 137 172 149 114 114 114 114 114 101 Diff P% 0 -10 -21 -21 -1 -14 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -42 Total Ability 61 82 97 106 112 124 134 102 102 102 107 99 96 Diff A% 12 10 6 4 7 7 -28 0 0 4 -7 -3 % A/P 34.8 47.1 62.0 77.1 81.5 71.9 89.9 89.7 89.7 89.7 93.5 86.8 95.0 % A/Pi 34.8 47.1 55.9 60.7 64.1 71.0 77.0 58.8 58.8 58.8 61.3 56.8 55.1 Injury History: Injured on 5/2/1984 with a Tight Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 9/7/1986 with a Ruptured Tricep Tendon, out for 5-6 weeks... Injured on 6/29/1990 with a Ruptured Bicep Tendon, out for 8 weeks... Daron Durr, LHP Birthday: 11/13/1960 round: 1 pick: 8 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Total Potential 167 148 148 148 148 148 148 136 136 136 136 136 136 Diff P% -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 Total Ability 68 68 70 75 91 103 110 116 124 127 127 127 127 Diff A% 0 2 3 11 8 5 4 6 2 0 0 0 % A/P 40.5 45.7 47.5 50.6 61.4 69.3 74.5 85.3 91.5 93.5 93.5 93.5 93.5 % A/Pi 40.5 40.5 42.1 44.9 54.4 61.4 66.0 69.5 74.5 76.1 76.1 76.1 76.1 Injury History: Injured on 8/3/1984 with a Pulled Elbow Ligament, out for one week... Injured on 8/15/1984 with a Stiff Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 4/6/1985 with a Stiff Shoulder, out for 6 days... Injured on 4/25/1988 with a Bruised Hand, out for 2 days... Injured on 7/31/1988 with a Bone Chips Shoulder, out for full season... Injured on 5/28/1992 with a Stiff Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 6/19/1993 with a Tight Elbow, out for one week... Injured on 4/6/1994 with a Tender Shoulder, out for one week... Injured on 8/8/1994 with a Ruptured Elbow Ligament, out for 8-9 weeks... Cristian Fernanades, RHP Birthday: 8/27/1959 round: 1 pick: 10 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Potential 226 207 208 208 192 192 192 192 192 192 158 158 126 Diff P% -8 -8 -8 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -30 -30 -44 Total Ability 133 154 163 187 196 187 190 192 191 182 172 153 126 Diff A% 10 4 12 5 -5 2 1 -1 -5 -6 -12 -22 % A/P 59.0 74.6 78.4 90.0 102.1 97.6 99.2 100.2 99.7 94.8 109.1 97.1 100.2 % A/Pi 59.0 68.3 72.2 82.8 86.8 82.9 84.2 85.1 84.7 80.5 76.3 67.9 55.8 Injury History: Injured on 6/28/1990 with a Tight Shoulder, out for 5 days... Notes: Cristian Fernanades stops to show up in Almanacs from 1991 (cease to exist in Complete player list) In the present year, 1995, He still exists in "Find player by name", but no where in the leauge/retired player. BUG, pherhaps? 1982 Draft Class Group Progression Summary Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Max % A/P 78.9 95.4 94.0 97.3 102.1 101.4 105.5 107.3 106.1 99.4 109.1 103.9 104.8 Avg % A/P 48.8 57.0 66.8 76.2 80.0 81.9 87.1 89.0 90.4 91.8 93.5 93.3 92.4 Min % A/P 31.0 34.8 47.1 54.2 46.8 50.2 60.0 65.6 64.9 70.8 77.6 77.1 74.9 Age 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Max % A/Pi 80.6 83.9 91.2 91.5 90.7 92.1 94.0 93.2 95.8 98.1 102.6 99.5 97.0 Avg % A/Pi 48.0 53.0 61.4 68.2 71.9 74.2 77.4 79.8 79.4 78.1 79.5 78.9 75.9 Min % A/Pi 31.0 34.3 44.9 48.0 50.8 53.4 52.6 57.1 55.3 57.1 58.8 60.2 55.8 Observation: Look at the group progression summary, the group of draftee seems to live up to their full potential at the time when they enter their prime (80% at age 26). As for the inital potential, they semi-fullfill it at age 27 (74.2% at age 27), that's not bad considering some draftee comes out as bust. One thing to note is that this group of draftee is mainly colleage players (only 2 HS out of total 12 players). Ok, the post is too long and I need to think more on this result. Will probably post more thoughts/observation later. Thanks for reading and please share observations. |
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 06:17 PM
|
#29 | |
|
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2,961
|
Quote:
|
|
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 06:33 PM
|
#30 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Forgot about something.
CSV export only has player's ability split (vsR and vsL). I calculated the ability using 0.7*vsR + 0.3*vsL where the 0.7,0.3 number is obtained from backward calcualting the ability score in player's record. More thoughts: This gourp of dratee does not have any particular severe player development stailling (ability rating) which I am more interested in reproducing. So, none of them are like Carlos or Rick discussed in the begining of this thread. I will see if any player stalling happens in the later round of draft. Guide on number table: For anyone who is not interested in individual player development or details, please skip to the end where the group is evalued as a whole. I pick age 22 to 34 because only this age range consists large sample (not just 1,2,3 players). |
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 07:19 PM
|
#31 |
|
Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 20
|
My comment on this topic is that I have watched several players bloom very late, and rarely, if ever, seen a drafted player be ready for the bigs at 22-23. It just seems like the players are blooming much too late. Something to look at for a patch maybe, but it could just be my view of it.
|
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 07:53 PM
|
#32 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Got one reply on the study. Good.
 Player are blooming late? Well, Carlos and Rick blooms late (well, they haven't bloomed at all) - they have slow/stalled growing in rating. However, I don't really see it happening in this group of dratee. One thing to remember, this study is done using the newly created leauge. So, this is not the same league as the one that Carlos and Rick are in. Well, the study does beg for question as how much protential fullfilled can you define as successfully blooming? 90%, 80% or 70%? I classify, 75% of of A/P as successfully made it (realize most of the potential), 85/90% as fully realize potential. If that guideline is acceptable, then you can look at the group %A/P, where they show, 80% A/P at age of 26 (successly survive growing) and fully realize potential (90%) at age of 30. To me, this is not too bad. I am not make any conlusion as the study so far is still too small-sized, but as a *trend* it's showing that players matures when they entering their prime. As for % A/Pi, I think of it as point of reference. As in how successfully are the initial evaluations (kinda, in a way). So, does the player projects as All-star player or bench player or career minor leaguer at the time of draft? As a group, it's showing over 70% A/Pi entering age of 26. This is pretty good, as some players turns into bust (Miguel Camacho 2B, barely fullfill 60% of initial potential rating). So, as a group, they pretty much successfully survive growing process. Another thing to think about is how much do you expect them to grow ( in potential)? 10%,20%, or even 30%? I am not forming any opinion (observation result) yet becsuse this is just a sub-group (1st rounder) of a draft class. I had coaches/scouts turned ON because I want to see how much influence do the coach quality have on ability growth or rating growth. I haven't start to analyze them yet and I think I can only start to have observations after looking at a larger-sized sample (whole 1982 draft class or more, pherhaps). Thanks for all replies, please keep sharing observations.
__________________
Rating Translator v0.93b (for OOTP 6/6.5) - released/updated on 03/13/05. - The function of this utility is to translate both the player's ability and talent ratings into stats (expected performance). Note: Rating Translator is now also hosted at jazzrack's CLB - OOTP Download. Click here for the discussion on "How computer GM may be made smarter by having built-in rating translation ability" |
|
|
|
|
04-27-2004, 07:55 PM
|
#33 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
The drop in player potential over the year is to be expected as most of the players don't make the bigs as All-star or even starters.
So, I say 70% of initial potential fullfillment as a group is pretty good.
__________________
Rating Translator v0.93b (for OOTP 6/6.5) - released/updated on 03/13/05. - The function of this utility is to translate both the player's ability and talent ratings into stats (expected performance). Note: Rating Translator is now also hosted at jazzrack's CLB - OOTP Download. Click here for the discussion on "How computer GM may be made smarter by having built-in rating translation ability" |
|
|
|
|
04-28-2004, 11:40 PM
|
#34 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Disclaimer: Preliminary study result using 1982 draft class only
Ok, I am just done with whole 1982 draft class analysis and there is still not too much going on in terms of discussion in this thread. Oh well.....  Below is the whole 1982 draft class analysis table. I will focus on group analysis this time since I have a larger-sized sample to play with. The table is brokendown into %Ability/Potential versus Age for various group in this draft class. I provide the detailed breakdown for %A/P because I think this is more relavant in terms of trying to make an observation on player *ability* progression since I dedicate this thread to be *fullfilling a player's potential*. One draft class is still not a very big sample size and I was hoping that I can perform analysis for at least 10-15 draft classes in total. It seems I was too optimistic on how fast I can do Excel/data I/O and manipulation. So, I decide to share the preliminary result on the anlysis by using one draft class only . I still don't want to form any conclusion yet so I will just provide a few obervations. Notes: % A/P is the total ability rating to total potential ratio at the given year - % A/P measures how much of current potential has the player fullfilled. This is most important since both potential and ability can fluctuate from year to year. % A/Pi is hte total ability rating to *initial* potential ratio (at the time of draft) - % A/Pi provides a nice refrence as to how much of initial promise has the player fullfilled. (i.e. the player is project to hit 0.300 at the draft and what AVG does the player actually hit at the given time) I provide the Max, Min, Average, and Standard Deviation for each group. The number in bracket behind each group name is the group size. (eg. 43/84 means there are 43 players in this group out of a total of 84 players in the draft class) Age is taken as the standard 7/1 in the year as separation line. Ability score is calculated from 0.7*vsR + 0.3*vsL. This means that if there is a heavy favored split toward vsR for a player, he is bound to have higher ability score. So, slightly over 100 A/P ratio can be considered as potential fully fullfilled. Code:
1982 Draft Class Total (total of 84 draftees; 7 round draft, 12 picks per round) Age/ % A/P 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 49.63 65.93 71.84 90.48 96.02 113.67 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 105.38 Avg 32.59 34.85 40.69 47.80 57.52 63.82 71.48 78.20 82.30 86.39 89.91 91.31 92.74 94.24 96.19 97.05 95.94 96.70 Min 27.30 26.75 23.26 25.89 26.06 27.79 33.47 36.57 43.55 50.15 59.95 62.56 62.56 62.56 77.58 77.05 74.95 87.38 Stdev 9.55 10.62 13.03 15.69 17.64 19.26 18.41 16.36 14.81 13.20 11.95 11.51 10.82 9.82 8.13 7.37 7.70 5.25 Age/ % A/Pi 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 49.63 65.93 76.02 90.48 92.56 103.52 111.30 124.13 128.99 136.16 143.19 137.68 137.50 154.78 150.65 155.22 163.04 149.43 Avg 32.59 33.93 39.96 45.79 54.37 59.46 65.31 72.80 77.17 80.49 83.35 85.94 87.64 90.05 92.16 96.20 96.88 98.65 Min 27.30 26.75 25.73 26.49 26.06 28.18 28.35 32.23 33.20 33.20 30.76 29.77 29.77 30.00 31.44 60.25 55.84 55.11 Stdev 9.55 10.33 12.39 15.22 17.37 17.56 16.54 16.78 18.22 18.19 19.02 20.09 20.73 21.87 22.57 22.04 26.03 24.79 Pitchers (43/84) Total Age/ % A/P 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 49.63 65.93 71.84 90.48 96.02 113.67 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 105.38 Avg 38.99 40.29 39.87 51.01 63.22 65.02 72.03 77.09 81.71 85.96 89.00 91.02 92.06 93.57 96.90 97.59 96.90 99.29 Min 28.35 27.01 24.27 26.48 26.06 27.79 38.51 38.37 43.55 50.15 59.95 62.56 62.56 62.56 77.58 77.05 74.95 93.77 Stdev 15.05 12.95 15.65 21.40 19.97 20.77 21.01 18.65 17.24 15.29 13.61 12.56 11.96 10.99 9.37 9.07 9.12 5.04 High School (13/43) Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 49.63 65.93 71.84 75.10 78.94 95.38 94.29 103.28 103.28 103.28 103.28 119.32 116.58 115.68 104.10 Avg 33.40 38.32 38.71 43.07 50.50 59.11 65.09 69.99 74.08 80.60 83.52 86.54 85.09 88.47 98.56 Min 27.30 27.01 23.26 25.89 26.92 30.80 33.47 36.57 43.55 60.56 62.56 62.56 62.56 62.56 88.30 Stdev 10.83 12.24 15.03 16.73 16.37 21.93 20.48 22.11 21.10 16.54 14.67 17.27 15.31 16.55 8.90 College (30/43) Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 90.48 96.02 113.67 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 105.38 Avg 77.88 68.64 67.33 74.50 79.23 83.76 87.43 90.62 91.95 93.84 94.98 96.73 97.59 96.90 99.29 Min 69.60 26.06 27.79 40.58 43.16 46.77 50.15 59.95 65.63 64.93 70.77 77.58 77.05 74.95 93.77 Stdev 11.09 19.66 20.98 21.81 17.58 15.55 14.62 12.73 10.38 9.99 8.79 9.55 9.07 9.12 5.04 Position players (41/84) Total Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 29.34 53.48 60.66 65.16 83.76 112.33 111.50 116.50 105.18 113.72 118.83 118.83 118.83 117.15 109.11 107.18 100.16 99.64 Avg 29.34 31.37 42.52 46.60 52.83 62.72 71.29 80.11 83.91 87.51 91.48 92.40 94.24 94.88 95.40 96.42 94.24 94.11 Min 29.34 26.75 27.11 28.72 26.06 28.18 36.71 46.19 53.16 55.95 60.98 66.67 71.30 75.20 80.00 86.65 85.60 87.38 Stdev 7.85 11.11 11.34 13.07 16.91 14.47 12.52 10.87 10.55 9.88 9.84 9.00 8.64 6.58 4.82 3.95 4.47 High School (14/41) Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 29.34 53.48 60.66 65.16 83.76 112.33 111.50 116.50 105.18 113.72 118.83 118.83 118.83 117.15 100.00 Avg 29.34 31.37 42.52 53.07 58.41 65.91 71.75 78.82 81.73 85.06 90.05 91.62 92.58 93.88 90.99 Min 29.34 26.75 27.11 28.72 40.29 43.17 43.17 46.19 53.16 55.95 60.98 66.67 71.30 75.20 80.00 Stdev 7.85 11.11 9.75 11.53 16.66 17.29 15.57 12.49 13.51 13.63 13.09 12.43 11.00 9.02 College (27/41) Age 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 43.86 74.80 83.67 92.71 97.38 102.14 105.03 105.52 108.28 107.71 112.99 109.11 107.18 100.16 99.64 Avg 37.55 49.53 61.19 71.07 80.74 84.96 88.69 92.16 92.77 95.04 95.35 96.11 96.42 94.24 94.11 Min 30.16 26.06 28.18 36.71 53.76 61.41 67.60 78.01 79.47 79.47 75.69 86.65 86.65 85.60 87.38 Stdev 5.94 13.04 17.13 13.27 11.05 10.09 8.84 7.69 8.11 6.94 7.52 6.05 4.82 3.95 4.47 The whole group's abilities progress nicely with age with over 85% A/P ratio when entering prime year (age 27). The %A/P ratio enters a stable 90s when players enter their 30s. This is good because this means that there is relatively no more large amount of potential fluctuations when player enter their 30s. Some may think that the %A/P only stablize only after age of 30 means player matures late. I think this is ok because this can be seen as some late boomers enter their prime in the their late 20s (29,30). Dividing into sub-group, postition players matures just a little bit faster than pitchers in this group. It's interesting to see that college pitchers mature much faster than HS ptichers where as college postition players matures pretty much on the same pace as HS postion players. It remains to be seen if the same holds with large sample size study. I know the analysis is rather short. Since I don't want to form conclusion yet with this small-zied sample, I kinda want to let the number speak for itself for now. Thanks for reading. Please share observation if there is any. Oh, if there is any suggestion on how to improve the quality and speed of analyzing method/study, please don't hesitate to share them as well. |
|
|
|
|
04-29-2004, 12:04 AM
|
#35 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
For reference purpose and anyone who is interested in this, I include the round-by-round analysis table (for % A/P and % A/Pi) for this draft class. Since the draft class in not big to begin with, it's really not a good idea to even start a preliminary analysis on round-by-round data now. Again, reference purpose only.
I applogize for the format. No time to fix them yet. Code:
Age/ % A/P 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 1st round Max 49.63 65.93 71.84 75.10 78.94 95.38 93.97 97.28 102.14 101.39 105.52 107.31 106.14 99.42 109.11 103.90 104.78 95.90 Avg 49.63 47.50 61.51 55.46 48.80 56.96 66.78 76.20 79.96 81.92 87.07 89.00 90.37 91.83 93.45 93.29 92.44 92.74 Min 49.63 29.07 51.18 40.48 31.03 34.83 47.13 54.16 46.77 50.15 59.95 65.63 64.93 70.77 77.58 77.05 74.95 87.38 Stdev 26.07 14.61 17.77 15.25 17.75 13.90 14.27 15.85 13.87 12.81 11.25 10.28 7.93 9.00 7.89 9.01 4.67 2nd round Max 30.30 53.61 61.61 71.32 82.86 92.71 95.38 95.00 98.85 104.22 105.71 107.71 108.00 105.57 107.18 94.87 93.32 Avg 29.17 44.57 45.69 51.38 62.52 71.72 80.16 84.01 88.66 92.04 93.57 95.35 96.19 95.51 97.26 93.08 93.32 Min 27.78 31.03 30.97 37.55 28.18 49.09 68.70 71.21 75.41 80.65 83.69 80.79 86.94 86.80 91.72 90.09 93.32 Stdev 1.28 9.89 11.11 11.31 15.63 13.01 9.17 8.96 8.29 8.23 7.86 8.35 7.50 5.65 5.39 2.61 3rd round Max 29.34 53.48 61.56 65.16 83.76 112.33 111.50 116.50 105.18 113.72 118.83 118.83 118.83 117.15 103.08 103.41 105.53 105.38 Avg 29.34 40.16 47.04 51.88 60.19 70.17 76.65 84.07 87.25 92.24 96.00 95.11 96.27 96.36 95.63 98.13 98.40 105.38 Min 29.34 28.32 30.64 30.39 39.22 42.16 60.00 67.80 73.25 75.91 79.58 79.82 79.28 81.69 80.00 94.34 94.26 105.38 Stdev 13.64 14.55 11.66 14.49 18.58 14.39 12.39 8.87 9.24 10.33 10.38 9.32 8.78 6.84 3.26 6.20 4th round Max 26.75 48.44 59.58 73.86 86.29 109.44 105.97 101.13 105.03 105.52 108.89 116.58 115.68 108.80 108.18 101.89 99.64 Avg 26.75 34.60 39.36 54.25 64.40 72.22 80.14 82.90 85.97 90.50 94.04 95.41 97.91 97.95 98.78 95.04 96.71 Min 26.75 27.11 28.72 37.23 36.00 42.48 55.21 65.23 72.54 81.78 85.43 85.43 86.09 82.41 89.89 90.81 93.77 Stdev 9.65 13.77 13.91 17.52 18.26 12.62 10.59 10.69 7.27 8.30 8.90 7.88 8.60 6.23 4.88 4.15 5th round Max 28.33 44.25 49.57 65.97 75.30 91.88 94.29 106.90 105.27 103.45 98.91 102.10 104.35 112.99 103.19 103.19 103.22 103.19 Avg 27.82 32.91 35.11 40.45 58.30 64.16 67.40 71.64 78.63 83.46 86.12 87.86 89.81 95.22 97.07 97.37 98.65 103.19 Min 27.30 27.30 23.26 25.89 26.92 30.80 33.47 36.57 44.43 55.95 60.98 64.42 68.89 75.20 92.93 90.44 93.42 103.19 Stdev 0.73 6.72 11.30 14.91 18.04 19.05 18.87 19.84 18.85 15.60 12.52 12.95 11.79 10.48 3.39 3.97 4.37 6th round Max 28.35 38.63 45.40 73.56 96.02 113.67 111.83 105.41 102.25 102.25 102.56 119.32 107.21 100.10 102.15 104.93 99.26 99.15 Avg 28.35 36.93 42.02 58.15 66.32 63.99 69.63 77.25 83.74 88.26 90.22 90.26 90.95 90.88 93.08 95.12 96.29 96.73 Min 28.35 35.22 38.63 38.63 38.63 38.63 38.63 43.92 56.67 70.00 69.67 74.29 74.29 85.19 85.70 87.93 92.71 94.31 Stdev 2.41 4.79 16.37 17.01 19.87 17.92 15.58 11.79 9.45 8.90 11.94 8.38 4.91 6.58 6.27 2.92 3.42 7th round Max 31.14 32.65 90.48 92.56 103.52 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 124.47 Avg 29.54 29.26 47.98 61.48 64.44 75.98 78.06 79.52 84.21 87.41 89.35 90.98 90.42 101.95 102.49 100.26 Min 27.01 25.73 26.49 26.06 27.79 36.71 38.37 43.55 50.33 62.05 62.56 62.56 62.56 86.98 87.78 90.11 Stdev 2.22 3.40 26.74 26.60 26.81 29.40 26.63 24.48 21.34 19.75 16.67 17.02 16.51 13.30 13.87 14.43 Age/ % A/Pi 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 1st round Max 49.63 65.93 76.02 79.46 80.58 83.90 91.24 91.54 90.71 92.05 93.97 93.21 95.81 98.13 102.59 99.46 96.97 102.59 Avg 49.63 47.50 61.87 56.91 47.95 53.02 61.42 68.24 71.89 74.19 77.40 79.77 79.39 78.10 79.52 78.89 75.88 80.58 Min 49.63 29.07 47.72 40.48 31.03 34.32 44.85 48.02 50.79 53.44 52.55 57.11 55.31 57.08 58.79 60.25 55.84 55.11 Stdev 26.07 20.01 20.20 15.68 15.72 14.55 15.06 14.47 12.64 13.51 12.55 14.14 14.09 15.44 15.01 17.36 23.93 2nd round Max 30.30 49.87 61.61 67.25 74.65 83.56 86.24 100.76 103.29 104.68 107.05 115.55 115.09 111.32 111.77 113.41 108.59 Avg 29.17 43.45 44.54 50.08 59.16 66.18 73.82 78.37 82.79 85.96 87.41 90.30 91.67 89.87 94.67 96.87 108.59 Min 27.78 31.03 30.97 37.55 28.18 49.09 63.36 63.67 69.08 72.67 71.83 75.33 74.63 74.50 81.33 81.33 108.59 Stdev 1.28 8.71 10.31 10.32 13.14 10.45 8.94 11.26 11.44 11.99 11.98 13.11 14.10 14.80 13.53 16.06 3rd round Max 29.34 50.37 58.16 65.16 79.00 82.25 84.75 87.46 110.32 118.02 120.16 116.74 116.58 116.36 117.97 118.34 112.30 112.14 Avg 29.34 39.01 46.98 50.20 56.78 63.09 69.81 77.73 83.44 87.19 89.49 92.17 93.00 94.98 98.42 100.91 98.30 112.14 Min 29.34 28.32 30.64 30.39 39.22 42.16 60.29 68.74 70.96 73.28 75.81 76.82 75.30 81.94 79.63 79.06 79.31 112.14 Stdev 12.27 12.01 10.19 12.12 11.14 7.04 6.16 11.08 12.01 11.62 11.20 11.40 10.67 13.70 15.43 17.05 4th round Max 26.75 48.44 53.63 73.86 86.29 94.90 100.95 107.08 105.12 117.80 123.75 126.73 134.46 131.31 129.94 124.94 106.38 Avg 26.75 34.60 36.74 52.28 58.78 64.08 72.59 75.44 77.49 81.84 85.09 85.28 85.74 83.08 94.66 99.68 98.37 Min 26.75 27.11 28.72 30.76 32.80 34.55 37.35 37.35 33.56 30.76 29.77 29.77 30.00 31.44 75.32 78.96 90.36 Stdev 9.65 11.45 14.95 16.91 16.50 17.70 18.43 18.17 19.83 21.42 21.87 23.44 23.71 18.32 16.52 11.32 5th round Max 28.33 44.25 44.64 46.46 75.30 83.51 92.52 104.05 117.55 122.09 119.82 122.09 119.02 122.45 119.55 120.11 125.52 78.22 Avg 27.82 32.23 35.97 37.84 55.59 60.67 64.04 72.22 77.50 81.94 84.15 87.42 89.87 96.64 101.03 100.76 100.57 78.22 Min 27.30 27.30 28.62 28.62 29.93 30.39 33.03 33.68 40.92 51.25 52.76 58.49 65.26 74.66 74.66 74.66 74.66 78.22 Stdev 0.73 6.82 7.38 7.77 16.30 17.87 18.73 20.38 23.83 22.83 22.21 21.42 19.17 18.13 18.84 18.30 22.94 6th round Max 28.35 35.22 35.86 73.56 75.40 77.57 81.81 98.26 103.23 108.20 111.74 123.48 137.50 129.00 136.57 146.79 149.21 149.43 Avg 28.35 31.78 32.10 52.91 62.04 62.62 67.98 74.60 80.98 83.60 85.08 87.89 94.18 101.99 103.38 105.46 112.05 124.52 Min 28.35 28.35 28.35 28.35 28.35 28.35 28.35 32.23 41.58 51.37 46.12 44.89 44.89 72.78 73.23 75.13 82.13 99.61 Stdev 4.86 5.31 22.15 17.21 16.40 15.24 17.55 18.39 18.67 21.12 25.52 27.54 22.24 24.39 26.98 26.07 35.23 7th round Max 31.14 32.65 90.48 92.56 103.52 111.30 124.13 128.99 136.16 143.19 137.68 136.96 154.78 150.65 155.22 163.04 Avg 29.54 29.26 45.86 54.61 58.88 63.75 70.25 72.23 76.04 79.39 81.59 81.73 84.39 96.99 104.76 109.12 Min 27.01 25.73 26.49 26.06 28.82 33.20 33.20 33.20 33.20 33.20 33.20 33.20 33.20 48.09 73.56 57.45 Stdev 2.22 3.40 26.85 28.91 28.70 27.76 26.52 26.39 27.24 29.17 31.04 31.47 36.28 36.81 34.93 42.99 |
|
|
|
|
04-29-2004, 03:07 AM
|
#36 |
|
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: watching: DArwin's missing link in action
Posts: 3,112
|
interesting stuff Jayzone- nice work.
__________________
Senior Senor Member of the OOTP Boards Pittsburgh Playmates- OTBL |
|
|
|
|
04-29-2004, 11:36 PM
|
#37 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Thanks.
I am doing this study using drag-copy-paste from the CSV files, so it get kinda tired on the hands after a while. I am thinking about doing this slowly and post the next result after I have five draft classes worth of data. So this will probably take a couple of weeks.One thing that I have been thinking though, potential fullfillment can be *achieved* in two ways: actual ability rising and/or potential droping. Both case will rise the % A/P ratio. % A/Pi gives a better indictor on how potential fullfillment is achieved. Conclusion: Whenever you saw a higher % A/P than % A/Pi, this means that player fullfill the potential, but that "current" potential is lower than the intial draft potential. (player projects to be 30HR hitter but maxed out at being 20HR hitter) Where as % A/Pi is higher than % A/P, player has increased their potential since drafting. I think the above conclusion was kinda implied in numbers, but I didn't explain about it. Hope this can give more meanings to the result that I compile. Question: I am thinking about compiling the "break-out year" stat (i.e. X number of players achieve 90% for %A/P at age of 26, etc.) as well, but I am not too sure what should be qualified as "break-out year". I am thinking about 85%-90% as qualifier. Thought? Thanks. |
|
|
|
|
04-29-2004, 11:39 PM
|
#38 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Oh and nobody was 'complaining' about this little study, so I assume that I am in the relative right direction on studying player ability progression, right?
Henry or Steve, care to give a hint?
|
|
|
|
|
05-02-2004, 05:39 PM
|
#39 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Note: more detailed explainations about this study are in my previous posts
I have an update for my little 'player ability progression study'. This update is about the break-out age that I talked about last time and this is for the 1982 draft class (I am still working on second draft class (1983) in analysis.). First, disclaimer: small sample and intermediate study result. Since it's a small sample, I won't write much in terms of analysis. I thought about how to define "break-out age" or more precisely "potential fullfillment age". I set a few criterion for both % A/P and % A/Pi ratio. I try to map the distribution of break-out age for the specific criterion. (i.e. Player X achieve 90% A/P ratio at the age of Y, etc.) So, in the end, there will be an age ditribution table of players for specific critierion. I did this is both number of players and percentile. I also calculate the max/min/average/standard deviation for all the distribution curves. So, we will have players avhieve %A/P=80% at the average age of Y. One thing to note though, NOT every player will statisfy the criteria. So, all this max/min/avg/stdev numbers are for players who made the criterion. This is actually quite important, as this not-covering-every-sample-avilable tend to screw the result on average. This means that you can not just assume a player will avhieve certain A/P ratio criterion in a average of age X. This X is only meaningful if the player can actually make the criterion. So, for this reason, it's important to pay attentaion to "Never" column in the table. The "Never" column is for players that have never reach the specific critreion. Another thing to note is that lower-roud/pick players tend to have higher intital %A/P ratio since their intial potential is low to begin with. In this draft class, for example, there are quite a few low-pick players who has high A/P ratio (oever 80%) but they are just projected to career minor leaguers (due to low potential). This intial higher %A/P also screw the distribution a little bit. Because of this and I wasn't too sure where to set the separation-line, I set the potential fullfillment criteria not just with one number but with a few (80%, 85%, 90%). So, I hope this broadening on the selection range will give you a better overall picture. Besides %A/P ratio, I also did the %A/Pi ratio. Why? It's because that %A/P ratio does not tell the whole story. A player can have high % A/P but low % A/Pi due to potential drop. So, even if the player statisfy the specific %A/P criterion, I still don't think I should call this as a "break-out" year. It's just the player has reached the growth ceiling at that year. On the other hand, % A/Pi ratio gives a better picture on if the player truly has a break-out year or if the player has really fullfill the initial project at draft. The criterion range is even larger than %A/P (80%,85%,90%,110%,125%). The reason for this is that I want to see what age does the player exceed initial draft projection if at all. So, these are for "surprise players". The age for these over 100% criterion will be older because players need time for both potential growth and actual ability growth. So, without further confusing the readers with my explainations. The analysis on potential fullfillment age for 1982 draft class is shown below. Code:
"Break-out Age" or "Potential fullfillment Age"
% A/P ratio:
criterion vs age distribution (number of players; out of total of 84)
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Never
80% 1 4 8 14 28 12 7 9 2 1 8
85% 1 2 5 11 13 9 14 10 5 2 1 11
90% 1 2 4 2 9 8 15 7 10 7 5 14
criterion vs age distribution (percentile)
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Never
80% 1.19 4.76 9.52 16.67 33.33 14.29 8.33 10.71 2.38 1.19 9.52
85% 1.19 2.38 5.95 13.10 15.48 10.71 16.67 11.90 5.95 2.38 1.19 13.10
90% 1.19 2.38 4.76 2.38 10.71 9.52 17.86 8.33 11.90 8.33 5.95 16.67
Group potential fullfillment age stat for % A/P
80% 85% 90%
Max 31 31 31
Avg 25.3 26.0 27.1
Min 21 21 21
Std 1.93 2.09 2.41
% A/Pi ratio:
criterion vs age distribution (number of players; out of total of 84)
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Never
80% 2 3 4 6 15 8 6 8 7 2 1 1 21
85% 1 4 1 2 15 7 4 6 6 4 2 1 31
90% 1 1 1 4 5 10 4 6 4 1 2 2 2 1 40
110% 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 70
125% 1 1 3 1 1 77
criterion vs age distribution (percentile)
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Never
80% 2.38 3.57 4.76 7.14 17.86 9.52 7.14 9.52 8.33 2.38 1.19 1.19 25.00
85% 1.19 4.76 1.19 2.38 17.86 8.33 4.76 7.14 7.14 4.76 2.38 1.19 36.90
90% 1.19 1.19 1.19 4.76 5.95 11.90 4.76 7.14 4.76 1.19 2.38 2.38 2.38 1.19 47.62
110% 1.19 2.38 1.19 3.57 3.57 2.38 1.19 1.19 83.33
125% 1.19 1.19 3.57 1.19 1.19 91.67
Group potential fullfillment age stat for % A/Pi
80% 85% 90% 110% 125%
Max 33 34 34 32 34
Avg 26.0 26.5 27.2 28.4 30.1
Min 21 21 21 24 26
Std 2.48 2.66 2.96 2.13 2.48
Thanks for reading. Observations/Suggestions are welcome. |
|
|
|
|
05-08-2004, 10:46 PM
|
#40 |
|
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 706
|
Update: Let's talk about potential(talent) growth today
Edit: Please disregrad the conlusion that I made here. The analysis is not correct. (though data is still correct) Explanation on second next post. It's been sometime since the last update. The data collections is still going slowly and I thought I would have nothing to update for quite a while (until I have the 5-year data that I set my mind to). I have been giving this problem more thoughts. Finally, it has became increasingly clear that I should pay attention not only to ability growth but also potential/talent grwoth. Using the exsiting data of 1982 draft class, I set to calculate %P/Pi for the particular player age. What is %P/Pi? %P/Pi is the potential at the given age to the initial potential ratio. This is can also be easily calcualted by the existing %A/P and %A/Pi data. %P/Pi = (%A/Pi) / (%A/P) So, %P/Pi should measure how much progress, in terms of potential, the player has made (i.e. much more potential than at drafting, etc.). I set to calculate the group performance and I was expecting to see a gradual aging curve. However, the result is totally not what I was expecting and I think it's not short of remarkable. The entire 1982 draft class, in terms of a whole group, does NOT change in talent/potential rating versus age. What this means is that you can expect to have the entire group to have the same potential even after 10 years of development. I know that potential doesn't change that much over the years and potential is already higher than ability at the time of draft (poetntial is the projection of ability), but still some *spike* in the potential vs age chart is to be expected in conventional wisdom. I am also aware of the fact that this is just one draft class, but even with this relatively small group (84 draftees) the regression to average is still undeniable. In the end, however, this consistency of poential vs age does make great sense in simulation balancing. This means that overall potential level will stick to average (50 at default) at any given time because each draft class, as a whole, will maintain talent/potential level on its own. This also implies that the "league total" in the setup has majority of the influence on what kind of stat (ie. pitcher dominating era, etc.) is being generated. This is very interesting indeed. I greatly applaud Marckus for having such deep game balancing mechanism. Below is the talent/potential ratio versus player age table. Code:
P/Pi 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Max 100.00 100.00 128.43 116.50 116.50 133.13 144.05 154.74 156.93 156.93 156.93 156.93 156.93 158.70 158.70 158.70 158.70 150.71 Avg 100.00 97.73 99.57 96.55 95.10 94.64 93.13 94.91 94.92 94.27 93.34 94.81 94.84 95.74 96.28 99.42 100.86 102.11 Min 100.00 73.38 73.38 68.51 46.56 46.56 46.21 46.21 46.21 34.85 34.85 34.85 34.85 34.85 35.61 65.52 55.75 58.05 Std 0.00 6.42 12.75 9.88 11.48 15.74 18.45 21.54 20.89 21.38 21.36 22.72 22.13 22.63 24.48 22.90 25.52 25.23 Last edited by Jayzone; 05-11-2004 at 12:07 AM. |
|
|
|
|
| Bookmarks |
|
|
