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Old 05-14-2025, 08:38 PM   #21
Sinnerman
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Originally Posted by Big Poppy View Post
No, just looking something akin to price action within standard deviation. outliers get faded, like all outliers.
What happens when Babe Ruth bats against little league pitchers in every at bat all season long.
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Old 05-14-2025, 11:29 PM   #22
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What happens when Babe Ruth bats against little league pitchers in every at bat all season long.
In a summer feel-good movie, the kids win by exploiting a flaw in Ruth's mechanics discovered by the nerdy kid who's also the backup catcher. Maybe the Babe winks at us as the movie ends to let us know he's part of the plot, maybe not. In real life, Ruth hits .950 and averages two walks and three home runs per game.

This isn't really a valid criticism of PT, though, unless Sporer massively screws up the balance between pitchers, hitters, and fielders. Even then, there will still be bad, good, and better pitchers in a comparative model. It's not like the Ruth card is facing little league kids. He's facing former (and occasionally current or future) major league pitchers. At the top end, we can argue whether Tom Glavine was as good as Walter Johnson, but no one will argue that Glavine wasn't much better than teenage amateurs.
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Old 05-15-2025, 09:54 AM   #23
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In league, if a league of Babe Ruths batted against a league of 40 overall pitchers, the stats of the babes would be the same if they batted against a league of cy youngs.

In tournament, the average batting line would be like .400/.650/1.000
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Old 05-15-2025, 10:34 AM   #24
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Just Need ...

... a Pitcher and Catcher.
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Old 05-15-2025, 10:45 AM   #25
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In league, if a league of Babe Ruths batted against a league of 40 overall pitchers, the stats of the babes would be the same if they batted against a league of cy youngs.

In tournament, the average batting line would be like .400/.650/1.000
Yes, the league pitchers would be normalized to produce the expected overall outcomes, regardless of how good or bad they are. What Sinnerman is saying is that they shouldn't be normalized in this manner. Worse pitchers overall should produce worse overall results.

My take is that trying to balance everything without some sort of normalization structure would be a nightmare, and that it would end up producing wildly fluctuating results from week to week, depending on which particular hitters and pitchers are available and which are used. Moreover, we aren't talking about little league hitters or pitchers. We're talking about quality players of varying degrees, and normalization to the mean of league average is a reasonable way to handle it.

My only quibble with OOTP's normalization is that it seems to overcompensate for good or bad starts by pushing in the opposite direction, in effect not just regressing to the mean but also adjusting the mean in an attempt to match the expected outcome. If a .250 hitter only hits .200 in the first half, we should expect that player to hit .250 in the second half and finish at .225. Instead, what I frequently see happening is the player exceeding his mean by hitting .300 in the second half to produce an end result of .250. This is, of course, subject to noise and variation in a simulation with so many variables; but it happens often enough to be noticeable, and it happens often enough that it's unlikely to be random variation, especially since the "league average" player tends to marginally improve throughout the week as newer, better players are added to rosters.
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Old 05-16-2025, 11:29 AM   #26
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Yes, those of us with decades of watching mean reversion and regression see it. its the algos. Algos are like uncanny valley. when they are brain dead, they look brain dead. Not just here. Most "AI" right now.
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Old 05-16-2025, 05:58 PM   #27
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Yes, the league pitchers would be normalized to produce the expected overall outcomes, regardless of how good or bad they are. What Sinnerman is saying is that they shouldn't be normalized in this manner. Worse pitchers overall should produce worse overall results.

My take is that trying to balance everything without some sort of normalization structure would be a nightmare, and that it would end up producing wildly fluctuating results from week to week, depending on which particular hitters and pitchers are available and which are used. Moreover, we aren't talking about little league hitters or pitchers. We're talking about quality players of varying degrees, and normalization to the mean of league average is a reasonable way to handle it.

My only quibble with OOTP's normalization is that it seems to overcompensate for good or bad starts by pushing in the opposite direction, in effect not just regressing to the mean but also adjusting the mean in an attempt to match the expected outcome. If a .250 hitter only hits .200 in the first half, we should expect that player to hit .250 in the second half and finish at .225. Instead, what I frequently see happening is the player exceeding his mean by hitting .300 in the second half to produce an end result of .250. This is, of course, subject to noise and variation in a simulation with so many variables; but it happens often enough to be noticeable, and it happens often enough that it's unlikely to be random variation, especially since the "league average" player tends to marginally improve throughout the week as newer, better players are added to rosters.
The adjustments in the simulation were pretty obvious in the 60's week. In my low silver league there was some platooning with batters that had insane splits. Way too many runs were being scored in the first several months. The simulation squeezed it back to what it wanted in the latter months to where the platoons were pointless from my subjective, and biased view as one of those using a platoon strategy. Makes sense, the sim had to nerf the splits or else offense would be way too high. This would have been reversed if the early months had dominant pitchers instead of specialized batters.

Not sure if this anecdote is useful, but I am sure the sim will adjust results by squeezing or expanding the difference between batter and pitcher as the season progresses. It be nice to find out if adjustments are relative to player ability or it's just a blanket adjustment to everyone. But then they add variance to player ability each season...
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Old 05-17-2025, 10:58 AM   #28
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I prefer the conspiracy theory, in which there is a nerd in a dark room watching your season. As soon as your team comes to life, he takes a giant wrecking ball to ERAs, WHIPs and OBPs.
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Old 05-19-2025, 03:59 PM   #29
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Are we still in 60s weeks? I cannot remember how to see what era we're in while in game. Can someone remind me?
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Old 05-19-2025, 04:01 PM   #30
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Are we still in 60s weeks? I cannot remember how to see what era we're in while in game. Can someone remind me?
We're back in Modern Era as of last week.
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Old 05-19-2025, 04:08 PM   #31
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We're back in Modern Era as of last week.
Thx.
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