Managing games, opponent is clutch

[phenom]

And this is exactly my point. These things just feel wrong and feel like they're happening an irregular number of times, and others seem to feel the same way, but it's ignored because I haven't done a comprehensive study of it. I just want to play the game without feeling like the unluckiest manager on the planet. The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real. The solution to my problem is likely only understanding what level of this I choose to tolerate.

I don't mind people thinking I'm wrong, but casting me aside only because of some arbitrary standard of evaluation that I haven't met is bothersome. I've already considered and investigated everything suggested in this thread and much, much more. I think it falls between the lines of stats on paper.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by phenom

Have you evaluated the timing of the balks? Because they never seem to happen with one out and a runner on first in an 8-2 game, followed by two consecutive outs to end the inning.

They generally seem to be part of a larger blowup in an inning. How am I supposed to quantify that?

And again, if I haven't made it clear, there's no obvious things like pitcher fatigue or anything like that.

To be clear my post you quoted was answering someone that said balks were 10X real numbers but that seemed to be fixed. My data shows it wasn't a problem in autocalced games since v12. It was not linked by me to big innings with users getting different results than cpu teams, nor when balks, IF hits, wp, etc. occurred in games being played.

But since you asked..

Have you? When you're up in a game 12-0 in the fifth inning and your P balks to you remember it the same as balking in the 9th up 3-2?

Sorting team pitching is somewhat limited without the ability to sort by outs/runners on base. I wish those options were there. So, the only thing I can tell you is 40 games into my current season, playing out every inning of every game, I have been called for 1 balk. Cpu teams while playing against me have been called for 2. Ten cpu teams in the league have been called 3 or 4 times. Five cpu teams have zero balks.

Originally Posted by phenom

And this is exactly my point. These things just feel wrong and feel like they're happening an irregular number of times, and others seem to feel the same way, but it's ignored because I haven't done a comprehensive study of it. I just want to play the game without feeling like the unluckiest manager on the planet. The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real. The solution to my problem is likely only understanding what level of this I choose to tolerate.

I don't mind people thinking I'm wrong, but casting me aside only because of some arbitrary standard of evaluation that I haven't met is bothersome. I've already considered and investigated everything suggested in this thread and much, much more. I think it falls between the lines of stats on paper.

I'm not casting you aside, I'm just using real data from many seasons of games I have played out. I stated earlier that I get the same feelings you do, the difference is IMHO the data proves my feelings are just that, feelings. I'm not the unluckiest manager on the planet, though I do have unlucky days. More important, I see the cpu going through the same ups and downs.

I fail to understand how actual data is an arbitrary standard of evaluation?

If there were a mistake in the code then it would apply to all teams in a played out game, human and cpu. To think otherwise would mean they coded the game to come up with these balks, wp, IF hits, errors etc. to only happen against a human user. Not only that they coded them to come up against only humans in critical situations, or to pile up until it is a critical situation. I can't see anyway the code could have a mistake, in this case, that only affected the
human user.

I won a played out game recently where the cpu P fell apart in the same manor we talk about human P's falling apart in these threads. IF hit, followed by an error, then a wp and I've got second and third with nobody out. Drop in a hit "and the race is on", 7 run inning. It is IMHO a scenario the human forgets happened quickly and it just becomes another win. But this is what I'm talking about in the code applying to both human and cpu. IE if there is a problem in the code these things would happen to both teams with the same likely hood, and in my experience (after taking the filter off of my memory) they do.

IMHO if there is any issue at all it would be the way an inning can "snowball"
into a big inning where pitchers fall apart and momentum seems (another word like "feels". I use those words too ) to take over. In my game these innings happen both for and against my team, though when it happesn against me I remember it much longer. This is an area where I have no idea how it compares to real life in regard to the number of "big innings". And with dice rolls under the hood I'm not sure how they code them out if they are coming up by chance? Put a code in to limit the chance? IDK, that's way above my pay grade.

Why do you think it's been ignored? They look at and tweak the engine every year and you don't think they take these posts into account? Matt has stated many times the sim engine is the same for played out or simulated games, for both human or AI teams. It is more likely they have looked and found nothing. You yourself said "The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real." As I said I could see the possibility of the "snowball" inning being something that isn't quite right, but if that were the case I would not agree that it only happens to the human user.


With regard to feelings I'd almost be embarrassed to have you sitting next to me when I'm playing out a game. I'm up 3-2 in the 9th and my closer of course hits the first batter. Next ball, wherever it's hit I'm saying out loud "this is going to be an error", only the vast majority of the time it's not. BUT if it is I knew it was going to happen and the game is over, highlighted by me saying out loud "that's it game over". Only to be followed by a K, a DP, and a win that the "how I won" will soon be forgotten. If I do lose that game I will remember it for a long time.

IRL I've seen my Cubs now walk the bases loaded 4 times without getting an out (or maybe one out?) late in close games and go on to lose. One of the better teams in the league, in less than 30 games? How? I've seen the ball drop in "no man's land" at least twice taking a win to a loss. I'd like to watch them and not think the only reason these things happened was because I was watching the game. I have Marquee and see most of their games. The few games I haven't been able to watch? They've won them all. On the other side I've seen every loss. If this were OOTP and played out vs. simulated I'd have to think it was in the code. But it's real life and it does happen.

I'm sure I've done nothing to convice you, and that's ok. We can agree to disagree. I do hope you find a way to tolerate the game.

[phenom]

I never said it was coded in. I actually said it's likely not and therefore not easy to find. For that matter, I'm not sure how an AI vs. AI game will play out the same as a Human vs. AI game, because a human manager isn't inherently going to make the same pitch-by-pitch decisions that the AI will. So no, I don't think the things that happen in a Human vs AI game will produce the same results that an AI vs AI game would.

As far as my comment about an arbitrary standard of evaluation, if I come in here and present what I feel is a problem but it's only 40 games in, you know as well as I do that I'm gonna be shown the door. You've been here as long as I have and you know you can't tell me otherwise. What if I told you it was 40 games in but in countless saves that didn't survive my frustration with the issue? Oftentimes the most vocal in these forums are people who love nothing more than to be the smartest person in the room.

But fine. I've also said in this thread that I may be complaining about nothing. To me there's something there. I think I've also made it pretty clear that it's probably my problem to deal with, and I will do so as I see fit.

Nothing to see here, I suppose.

[David Watts]

Sweed, do you play manage only?

[CubsFan1967]

Originally Posted by Sweed

To be clear my post you quoted was answering someone that said balks were 10X real numbers but that seemed to be fixed. My data shows it wasn't a problem in autocalced games since v12. It was not linked by me to big innings with users getting different results than cpu teams, nor when balks, IF hits, wp, etc. occurred in games being played.

But since you asked..

Have you? When you're up in a game 12-0 in the fifth inning and your P balks to you remember it the same as balking in the 9th up 3-2?

Sorting team pitching is somewhat limited without the ability to sort by outs/runners on base. I wish those options were there. So, the only thing I can tell you is 40 games into my current season, playing out every inning of every game, I have been called for 1 balk. Cpu teams while playing against me have been called for 2. Ten cpu teams in the league have been called 3 or 4 times. Five cpu teams have zero balks.




I'm not casting you aside, I'm just using real data from many seasons of games I have played out. I stated earlier that I get the same feelings you do, the difference is IMHO the data proves my feelings are just that, feelings. I'm not the unluckiest manager on the planet, though I do have unlucky days. More important, I see the cpu going through the same ups and downs.

I fail to understand how actual data is an arbitrary standard of evaluation?

If there were a mistake in the code then it would apply to all teams in a played out game, human and cpu. To think otherwise would mean they coded the game to come up with these balks, wp, IF hits, errors etc. to only happen against a human user. Not only that they coded them to come up against only humans in critical situations, or to pile up until it is a critical situation. I can't see anyway the code could have a mistake, in this case, that only affected the
human user.

I won a played out game recently where the cpu P fell apart in the same manor we talk about human P's falling apart in these threads. IF hit, followed by an error, then a wp and I've got second and third with nobody out. Drop in a hit "and the race is on", 7 run inning. It is IMHO a scenario the human forgets happened quickly and it just becomes another win. But this is what I'm talking about in the code applying to both human and cpu. IE if there is a problem in the code these things would happen to both teams with the same likely hood, and in my experience (after taking the filter off of my memory) they do.

IMHO if there is any issue at all it would be the way an inning can "snowball"
into a big inning where pitchers fall apart and momentum seems (another word like "feels". I use those words too ) to take over. In my game these innings happen both for and against my team, though when it happesn against me I remember it much longer. This is an area where I have no idea how it compares to real life in regard to the number of "big innings". And with dice rolls under the hood I'm not sure how they code them out if they are coming up by chance? Put a code in to limit the chance? IDK, that's way above my pay grade.

Why do you think it's been ignored? They look at and tweak the engine every year and you don't think they take these posts into account? Matt has stated many times the sim engine is the same for played out or simulated games, for both human or AI teams. It is more likely they have looked and found nothing. You yourself said "The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real." As I said I could see the possibility of the "snowball" inning being something that isn't quite right, but if that were the case I would not agree that it only happens to the human user.


With regard to feelings I'd almost be embarrassed to have you sitting next to me when I'm playing out a game. I'm up 3-2 in the 9th and my closer of course hits the first batter. Next ball, wherever it's hit I'm saying out loud "this is going to be an error", only the vast majority of the time it's not. BUT if it is I knew it was going to happen and the game is over, highlighted by me saying out loud "that's it game over". Only to be followed by a K, a DP, and a win that the "how I won" will soon be forgotten. If I do lose that game I will remember it for a long time.

IRL I've seen my Cubs now walk the bases loaded 4 times without getting an out (or maybe one out?) late in close games and go on to lose. One of the better teams in the league, in less than 30 games? How? I've seen the ball drop in "no man's land" at least twice taking a win to a loss. I'd like to watch them and not think the only reason these things happened was because I was watching the game. I have Marquee and see most of their games. The few games I haven't been able to watch? They've won them all. On the other side I've seen every loss. If this were OOTP and played out vs. simulated I'd have to think it was in the code. But it's real life and it does happen.

I'm sure I've done nothing to convice you, and that's ok. We can agree to disagree. I do hope you find a way to tolerate the game.

The season I was referencing my Cubs 162 game manual managing playthrough averaged .8 balks per game. At that time, based on very minimal research it seemed to me that the correct number should have been .08 for both teams combined per game historically.

[highandoutside]

I don’t claim any expertise, but I have stayed at a Holiday Inn.

I watch a lot of real baseball and I’ve played every game of my fictional team’s 18 years history (stats only, no ratings except endurance and fielding…try it-it’s awesome!). Yes really frustrating things happen in OOTP, but honestly it is not much different than reality. Watch a full season of favorite team and I promise you’ll experience it.

[phenom]

I've been watching 100+ games each season of my favorite team for 40 years.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by phenom

I never said it was coded in. I actually said it's likely not and therefore not easy to find. For that matter, I'm not sure how an AI vs. AI game will play out the same as a Human vs. AI game, because a human manager isn't inherently going to make the same pitch-by-pitch decisions that the AI will. So no, I don't think the things that happen in a Human vs AI game will produce the same results that an AI vs AI game would.

As far as my comment about an arbitrary standard of evaluation, if I come in here and present what I feel is a problem but it's only 40 games in, you know as well as I do that I'm gonna be shown the door. You've been here as long as I have and you know you can't tell me otherwise. What if I told you it was 40 games in but in countless saves that didn't survive my frustration with the issue? Oftentimes the most vocal in these forums are people who love nothing more than to be the smartest person in the room.

But fine. I've also said in this thread that I may be complaining about nothing. To me there's something there. I think I've also made it pretty clear that it's probably my problem to deal with, and I will do so as I see fit.

Nothing to see here, I suppose.

And 40 games is all I have in v26 to use. However I posted several seasons of data in my previous posts. So not really emphasizing my v26 forty game sample as the be all end all. It is, in it's small sample size, showing a similar track to what I posted from those complete seasons. Nothing more. Feel free to throw out the 40 game v26 sample as meaningless. I have no problem with that at all, but that leaves my other full season examples that do exactly what I said they do.. show an auto-calced game will not produce 10x the amount of balks, wp, then one sees in real life. Again as I previously noted this whole balk conversation had nothing to do with when balks, wp, etc. occur in games. It was to answer the quoted post of another user.

I never said it was coded in either. What I said was if there was a mistake (use "issue" if that fits better than "mistake" for you. I don't want to get stuck on semantics) in the code then it would affect both user and cpu. If it only affected one side and not the other I'm not sure how that would be done without having separate codes for AI and human results? Something Matt and Markus have always said is not how the engine is coded.

Yes, there is some difference due to humans being able to have some real time input. I'm failing to see how that would affect the chance of a balk, wp, error, etc. using the under the hood math? As a human user I have a P on the mound, he can pitch, pitch around, intentionally bb, hit batter, etc. Not sure how hitting any of those buttons, other than intentional BB, would affect whether a pitcher balks, wild pitches, hits a batter, or a fielder makes an error? In all cases, other than IBB, the input runs through the code with the possibility of a balk, wp, etc. occurring. That is the code Matt, and Markus in past years, has always said is the same for human, cpu, simulated, or played out games. It does the same for a human batter. Unless a human is spamming one of the choices like always hitting OF in, IF in, or other extremes there isn't going to be an unrealistic result.

I took your initial post as a question looking for feedback. I simply answered in my first post in the thread saying "yes" and added my experiences in how "I" look at the data the game puts out. I didn't post anything else to you until you asked me a direct question.

My next post was a response to Pelican as he mentioned walking the bases full. In that post I gave him the example of the Cubs doing that IRL this year.

My next post was to reply to the issue from CubsFan1967 about balks being 10x real life in past versions. I submitted data of many seasons over many versions showing in my auto calced leagues this wasn't true.

You then asked me directly about balks and "blow ups" and how to "quantify that". I answered your questions. I went into detail on how I think "blow ups", "inning can snowball" (in my terms) may be an issue, with the difference being I see it as happening to both human and cpu teams. I then said it's fine that we can agree to disagree on who it affects. Without your question addressed to me there is no answer where I, according to you, try to become "the smartest person in the room" When you asked the question I assumed you wanted an answer.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by CubsFan1967

The season I was referencing my Cubs 162 game manual managing playthrough averaged .8 balks per game. At that time, based on very minimal research it seemed to me that the correct number should have been .08 for both teams combined per game historically.

I also manually play out ever inning of every game, starting with season 2002 and now in 2047. Imported from v2 all the way to v26.

Then the question is, did you auto calc League Total Modifiers? Preferably on the morning of opening day.

If you did you are seeing something I have never had happen in my game.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Sweed, do you play manage only?

I manually manage every inning of every game, including spring training in one pitch mode. The AI sets the initial defense, which I change a lot. The AI controls baserunning advancement. I control steals.

I am the GM of the team. I have a hired manager but I play in legacy mode so the MLB manager cannot override my lineup/staff decisions for the MLB club. The only thing I hand off to the AI is minor league lineups and pitching staff assignments. I will lock some MiLB prospects into lineups, positions, and pitching staff spots that I want some control on how they develop.

It is a league that started with real players in v4 and imported all the way to v26 where it is fictional by attrition. Modern day teams, divisions, and playoff structures.

[phenom]

Based on those responses, it doesn't appear that you understand anything I am saying.

I'm moving on now.