Why I'm (probably) Giving Up on OOTP

[md40022]

Originally Posted by pastorjoeboggs

Since 1995, teams that go into the Division Series with a record 5 games better than their opponent are 36-30. While it *is* fairly close, the evidence suggests that the team with the higher record wins about 55% of the time, which is not statistically insignificant.

Strangely enough, when you increase it to a 10 game record gap, the winning percentage drops to 53% (16-14).

Still, the evidence seems to suggest that when a team is significantly better than their opponent going into a series, there is a reasonable expectation that they will win more often than not. That has not been my experience in this game.

My point is that I now have two years of evidence in PT that upsets are far more frequent than in real life.

You're kind of answering all your own points here.

First off, you mention you have two years of results. Two years means two playoff series. That's a ridiculously small sample size - not enough to gauge anything on.

As far as the stats you posted, 55% and 53% win probabilities are hardly percentages that say the favored team should overwhelmingly win the playoff series. 55% and 53% win rates mean 45% and 47% upset rates, which seems like a pretty darn high upset probability to me. And you're using a sample size of just 2 playoff series, so 55/45 and 53/47 are essentially a coin flip.

And on top of everything I just said, you yourself are acknowledging the real life division series favorite vs. underdog record as being "fairly close"...... and then when the win gap gets even wider the favorite vs. underdog record gets even closer which goes to show you just how random baseball is with these small sample sizes

[Scipio Africanus]

I don't have the statistics handy but I've read that a 3-, 5-, or even 7-game series between two good baseball teams is essentially a coin toss as to who will win. To get to a 90% probability of the actual better team winning, the series has to be (if I remember correctly) a 25+ game series.

[Pelican]

I suspect that you would find a greater correlation, if you looked not at the entire season, but the record for the last month (excluding games after clinching playoff position). It's a long season. Teams with impressive records can head into the playoffs with injuries, or in a slump. And teams that barely score a Wild Card berth can be on a roll. I would expect that a team's performance in recent weeks going into the playoffs would be a better predictor of playoff performance. And good teams (see Phillies, Philadelphia) know how to hit another gear in the post-season, even against teams (see Braves, Atlanta) with much better regular season records.

[BaseballReplayJournal]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

That's because you maintain the belief that 10 games between two teams is a substantial difference. an 85 win team and a 95 win team are so much closer together talent-wise than you realize. That comes down to a bad week and a half in June during a 6 month season.

Extremely well said.

[dannibalcorpse]

Originally Posted by pastorjoeboggs

I understand that upsets happen. I get it. They happen all the time.

However, for the last two years, the number of times I have been "upset" by teams with a worse record far outnumbers the victories.

This week, I came into the playoffs with the top record in my league, the top run differential, the top scoring defense, and riding an 8-2 hot streak to finish the season. In my first series, I face a team fully 10 games worse, with less than 1/2 the run differential, a middling defensive metric, and a 3-7 record in their last 10 games. And, to boot, my team chemistry is 45% to their 12%.

So of course I not only lose but lose by blowing a 2-0 lead. Apparently the team chemistry boost is utterly meaningless.

This on the heels of darn near the same thing happening in the previous PT season, when I blew a 4 run lead in the bottom of the ninth of the clinching game.

It is discouraging - and plainly unenjoyable - to put the time and effort into strategy and lineups to have a successful season only to get repeatedly screwed in the postseason. It's reached the point where I get to Sundays and think, "Well, here comes another first series exit." And what's the point of playing at that point?

I don't know what, if anything, I expect the devs to do, but it's ruining my experience of the game.

I get the frustration, I've definitely seen my share of 100+ win PT teams go down meekly in their first playoff series despite every metric screaming that it shouldn't have been a fight.

I think the best advice is froma few other folks in this thread - take a break from that team for a minute. Play some solo OOTP, maybe work on a second PT team (every license gets three!) with some type of theme, but give yourself a mental reset. Set the team up now for the rest of the week and ignore it til Sunday night, and I bet you'll feel a little more refreshed.

[TheOtherCraig]

So just to clarify, what exactly do you think is going on here if not randomness and probability working against you? Why would that cause you to quit the game? Unless you have the same level of control over your emotions as my 3 year old, you should realise as a baseball fan that this stuff happens all the time, every season.

Hence I ask the question, what do you think is going on? Do you think the game is rigged? Or do you just not like losing and wanted to complain about it?

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by Pelican

I suspect that you would find a greater correlation, if you looked not at the entire season, but the record for the last month (excluding games after clinching playoff position). It's a long season. Teams with impressive records can head into the playoffs with injuries, or in a slump. And teams that barely score a Wild Card berth can be on a roll. I would expect that a team's performance in recent weeks going into the playoffs would be a better predictor of playoff performance. And good teams (see Phillies, Philadelphia) know how to hit another gear in the post-season, even against teams (see Braves, Atlanta) with much better regular season records.

There's a saying, "It's not who you play, but when you play them."

My team (not PT) won 113 games in the last season I just played. We got bounced in the LCS. We had a great season, it would have been nice if we won it all but I'm happy with the season we had.

[stevem810]

I constantly reign in my disappointment when I have the record/stats/players that would indicate my team should win the series, easily. If it were a one time thing, sure no problem, but it can happen multiple times in a row which stings.

Harry Carey once said during a broadcast, words to this effect, 'I've always looked at baseball games as 'just entertainment', nothing more.

Sometimes, if you play enough games, your team is on the other side of the expected win. I currently have a team that qualified for a WC by one game (tie breaker).....with a losing record that has knocked off the number one and number two seeded teams in back to back series.

As a final thought and this surprised me, we were 5-6 and 6-6 against those much stronger teams. So, luck, and the way the teams match-up play into it, too. Luck being the bigger factor.

[HonusWagner]

Originally Posted by BaseballReplayJournal

Extremely well said.

No I disagree. On. The basis the 95w team could also have had a 'bad 10 days', in any month, but did not. That consistency is tougher over a longer timeframe and so reveals the legitimately better club.

[snepp]

For funsies, my playoff history in my current league of 64 seasons. Started as 24 team, expanded early and often to 32.

35 trips to the playoffs.

Record in divisional series: 19-16 .543
Was clearly the "best" team in most of those, but not all. A lot of disappointing ends to seasons to some "inferior" teams.

Record in league championship series: 16-3 .842 !!!
Baseball is a funny game, this is incredible. Tough to complain about my DS record when this has happened.

World series: 9-7 .563
About what you'd expect when two good teams play each other in sets of small samples.


I love baseball, even when it disappoints.

[Rain King]

Mathematically, a 95-win team should beat an 85-win team approximately 56.2% of the time.

That does increase slightly when it is a Series.

Best of 5: 61.6%

Best of 7: 63.4%

In no situation would I consider the 85-win team winning a "major upset".

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Mathematically, a 95-win team should beat an 85-win team approximately 56.2% of the time.

That does increase slightly when it is a Series.

Best of 5: 61.6%

Best of 7: 63.4%

In no situation would I consider the 85-win team winning a "major upset".

I also think it would be more accurate to use their pythag wins instead of their real wins.

[OutS|der]

If this is your attitude after 2 years then maybe you should quit. Playing games isn't for you

[Pelican]

Originally Posted by pastorjoeboggs

That I understand. It wouldn't be nearly as upsetting or discouraging if I were losing in the World Series or even the LCS. I was a Braves fan in the 90s. But the number of times I lose the division series when I am 10 or more games better over the season is where I am losing my interest.

Surely, as a Braves fan, you can appreciate what happened in the playoffs the last two years, when Atlanta had a much better regular season record than Philadelphia, but lost badly in the playoffs each year. Were the Braves the better team, either in 2022 or 2023? In your terms, yes. In baseball’s terms, no. The Phillies were the better team when it counted. It happens.

[Socali]

ok, i happened to be meandering around and found this old thread. I cannot help but ask PastorJoeBoggs to consider making the playoffs with an 85 win team......???

According to your experience as you describe, that should guarantee you success in PT playoffs.

[PSUColonel]

He probably has money invested in it...which is of course causing him to not see things very clearly.

[Scoman]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

He probably has money invested in it...which is of course causing him to not see things very clearly.

I'm still trying to figure out the appeal to PT,not much fun for free,yet people pay hundreds even thousands of $ for a chance to win nothing.

I miss the old OOTP.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Scoman

I miss the old OOTP.

Isn't the regular old OOTP still the old OOTP? I mean, I'd bet all of those PT players are keeping the company afloat for everyone else.

[Scoman]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Isn't the regular old OOTP still the old OOTP? I mean, I'd bet all of those PT players are keeping the company afloat for everyone else.

OOTP had no problem staying afloat pre PT. When i say the old OOTP I mean when 100% of the developments time and effort went to the core game and historical mode.

Im strictly a historical player and there have been certain issues that haven't been looked at or fixed in years or actually since Spritze passed away.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Scoman

there have been certain issues that haven't been looked at or fixed in years or actually since Spritze passed away.

Do you have an example?