3-Year Recalcs for Rookie Seasons, Final Seasons, Missing Seasons, Single-Season Players?

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by thehef

Interesting. Although I can't speak to the ERA+ stats you'd expect, I suspect that the way you describe it is accurate. (If I'm understanding the "weaken" numbers for AB & IP would be set to 0, correct?)

This is definitely something to test to be sure...

(And I'll just note that I've been spending waaaay too much time testing stuff lately. I really don't need you coming up with interesting things like this...)

Also: is there a way to go into league settings on an historical league already in progress and look up what the adjust/weaken settings are? I have a game in progress for myself and I'm looking for that and not really finding it easily ...

[thehef]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

I put it in terms of ERA+ and OPS+ because those are already rate stats, and the whole 3-yr recalc double season and all that strikes me as more or less a way to convert counting stats across three years to rate stats so they can be applied to player projections in the game. If that's the case, then might as well talk in terms of rate stats that are already there.

Ya, for sure. I was just meaning that I was taking your word for those ratings, because for me, I don't really pay much attention to ratings except as comparison from one player to the next. Like if I'm trying to decide who would be the best guy to pinch hit: Who of my bench guys has the best ratings vs LHP? But the number itself is pretty meaningless to me... But I get what you are saying

Originally Posted by chucksabr

Anyhoo—if the game does what Markus says and a league operator decides to change the "weaken" default from 50 to zero, then what would be the alternative except for the game to simply adjust everyone to league average, including Ricky Pickett, Jim Paciorek, and the rest of them? The only alternative would be that the game ignores Markus's directive to do so on its own and decides to make cup of coffee guys replacement players anyway. I wouldn't think the game is artificially intelligent enough to make that decision on its own.

Unless there's a completely other thing neither of us are considering?

Ya, I agree. As soon as I have time (unless you beat me to it), I'm going to find a handful of guys in a particular season who have very low AB's / IP's, and then run two tests to compare side-by-side ratings: 1) normal weaken settings, vs 2) weaken settings at zero... and then see if there's a difference...

[thehef]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

Also: is there a way to go into league settings on an historical league already in progress and look up what the adjust/weaken settings are? I have a game in progress for myself and I'm looking for that and not really finding it easily ...

I am almost positive that there is no way to find that. And that it therefore kinda goes along with "once you start your game and make your adjust & weaken settings, you cannot change them."

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by thehef

I am almost positive that there is no way to find that. And that it therefore kinda goes along with "once you start your game and make your adjust & weaken settings, you cannot change them."

That's what I figured, thanks.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Garlon

If you use 200 AB for your adjust setting and use 1yr it looks for a total of 200 or more AB, if you use 3yr it looks for 600 AB over those seasons, if you use 5yr it will look for a total of 1000 AB over those seasons. If you are using 3yr double weight then it will be 800 AB, and if you are using 5yr double weight then it will be 1200 AB.

If you use 3yr recalc with 200 AB, for rookies and players in their final year it will only look for 400 AB because the player did not play before or after the given season.

If there are gaps in the middle of the career for a player it does not account for that. A good example of this is Hank Greenberg who missed 1942, 1943, and 1944 during WW II. If you are using 3yr recalc with 200 AB he is fine in 1941 because he has a total of 640 AB between 1940 and 1942. When the game moves to 1942 it sees he has only 67 AB between 1941 and 1943 and his ratings tank. In 1943 he has 0 AB between 1942 and 1944, so the game just holds over his previously tanked ratings from 1943. When you get to 1944, he only has 270 AB between 1943 and 1945 so he gets a new set of tanked ratings. When you get to 1945, he is fine because he has 793 AB between 1944 and 1946.

An option that I have always thought would be beneficial could be to have the game use "most recent 550 AB", so if in the focus season a player has 550 AB then the game uses that season, if the player is below 550 AB it will try 3yr recalc, and if 3yr recalc is still below 550 AB it will try 5yr recalc, and so forth until it has at least 550 AB. This could be the same for pitchers. If we added this to the game, it should only be an option because this will add a significant amount of talent to the league every season and reduce big seasons. There could be options for 1yr recalc, 3yr recalc, 5yr recalc, and "variable multiyear recalc" which is this model.

With variable multiyear recalc Greenberg and anyone else gets a good import every season. There are definitely problems with this though. There are players who broke into the majors but did not really play much for 5 or more seasons, and then when they did play they had a big season. Under this process this player could get an extra 5 seasons or more of great seasons. So perhaps we will need to just have variable multiyear recalc limited to using 1yr, 3yr, or 5yr but not further out than that to find 550 AB. There is no perfect solution to the import settings, but with 150 AB and 5yr recalc the only significant player I have seen with some issues is Hank Greenberg.

For historical games I use 5yr recalc and use either 150 or 200 AB for the adjust setting.

bump because I'm too dumb to quote this in another thread.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by thehef

First: I don't know for sure. Based upon some very limited testing & other research, I think OOTP just uses available stats and doesn't double up any years unless you select double-weight. But your adjust/weaken settings can very much come in to play.

So if you have three-year recalc enabled and 200 is your threshold for the adjust setting, then you need 600 AB's over those three years (1987, 1988, 1989). If your rookie has 15 AB's in 1987 and 425 AB's in 1988, then he has 440 AB's. To get to 600, then 160 adjusted AB's will be added to his stats and then his ratings will be calculated based upon those 600 AB's. (In this example, if you use double-weight, then you are using those 15 AB's in '87 and 850 AB's in '88, and therefore no adjusted AB's.)

If, OTOH, your rookie had 15 AB's in 1987 and 575 AB's in 1988, then only 10 adjusted AB's will be applied, and he's basically going to be rated to perform like he did in 1988. (For double-weight, you'd have 15 AB's for '87 and 1150 AB's for '88, and no adjusted AB's...)

For a final-year player, his AB's for 1987 and 1988 will be used. If that total falls under 600 AB's, then adjusted AB's will apply. So for a guy who played fulltime in '87 & '88, he's surely going to be well over 600 AB's so his ratings will be based on his final two years... (and double-weight would do exactly what you would think: give double weight to his '88 stats compared to his '87 stats).

For your other examples, let's say a guy - for whatever reason - has only 275 total AB's for years 1987 thru 1989. Doesn't matter what year(s) those 275 AB's occurred, OOTP is going to add 325 adjusted AB's to his stats in order to come up with ratings. (For double-weight, he'd have 550 AB's and therefore only 50 adjusted AB's would be added.)

This is how I think it works. I am not 100% certain on every detail, but I think it's at least pretty close

After 23 years how do we still not know??? there should be zero ambiguity at this point.

If you are using recalc it factor in the season you just played (or is should)
It should not use the actual stats for previous year

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Garlon

If you use 200 AB for your adjust setting and use 1yr it looks for a total of 200 or more AB, if you use 3yr it looks for 600 AB over those seasons, if you use 5yr it will look for a total of 1000 AB over those seasons. If you are using 3yr double weight then it will be 800 AB, and if you are using 5yr double weight then it will be 1200 AB.

If you use 3yr recalc with 200 AB, for rookies and players in their final year it will only look for 400 AB because the player did not play before or after the given season.

If there are gaps in the middle of the career for a player it does not account for that. A good example of this is Hank Greenberg who missed 1942, 1943, and 1944 during WW II. If you are using 3yr recalc with 200 AB he is fine in 1941 because he has a total of 640 AB between 1940 and 1942. When the game moves to 1942 it sees he has only 67 AB between 1941 and 1943 and his ratings tank. In 1943 he has 0 AB between 1942 and 1944, so the game just holds over his previously tanked ratings from 1943. When you get to 1944, he only has 270 AB between 1943 and 1945 so he gets a new set of tanked ratings. When you get to 1945, he is fine because he has 793 AB between 1944 and 1946.

An option that I have always thought would be beneficial could be to have the game use "most recent 550 AB", so if in the focus season a player has 550 AB then the game uses that season, if the player is below 550 AB it will try 3yr recalc, and if 3yr recalc is still below 550 AB it will try 5yr recalc, and so forth until it has at least 550 AB. This could be the same for pitchers. If we added this to the game, it should only be an option because this will add a significant amount of talent to the league every season and reduce big seasons. There could be options for 1yr recalc, 3yr recalc, 5yr recalc, and "variable multiyear recalc" which is this model.

With variable multiyear recalc Greenberg and anyone else gets a good import every season. There are definitely problems with this though. There are players who broke into the majors but did not really play much for 5 or more seasons, and then when they did play they had a big season. Under this process this player could get an extra 5 seasons or more of great seasons. So perhaps we will need to just have variable multiyear recalc limited to using 1yr, 3yr, or 5yr but not further out than that to find 550 AB. There is no perfect solution to the import settings, but with 150 AB and 5yr recalc the only significant player I have seen with some issues is Hank Greenberg.

For historical games I use 5yr recalc and use either 150 or 200 AB for the adjust setting.

so are you saying as you play year by year the recalc ALWAYS uses real life totals NOT what you have played?
If that is the case can we please readjust stats based on what actually occurred during your sim.
Sorry, just frustrated that after 23 year there is not definitive guide and more options.
Heck i still can't start 1969 expansion with draft based on actual 68 stats. I have to sim 1968 to get to 1969 expansion draft

[thehef]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

so are you saying as you play year by year the recalc ALWAYS uses real life totals NOT what you have played?
If that is the case can we please readjust stats based on what actually occurred during your sim.
Sorry, just frustrated that after 23 year there is not definitive guide and more options.
Heck i still can't start 1969 expansion with draft based on actual 68 stats. I have to sim 1968 to get to 1969 expansion draft

Recalc does not use the stats of the game you just played. It used real stats.

What you want - using OOTP stats - comes within the realm, perhaps not directly, of using OOTP's development.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

so are you saying as you play year by year the recalc ALWAYS uses real life totals NOT what you have played?
If that is the case can we please readjust stats based on what actually occurred during your sim.

Guys who historically started slow and got better later would not get better later using the game stats. Guys like Bill Robinson and Jim Hickman.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Sorry, just frustrated that after 23 year there is not definitive guide

Yes. It was quite interesting when it was confirmed recently that the stats show in the editor claiming to be what the player would be expected to produce in a neutral modern environment as described in the editor are actually what he would be expected to produce in the selected year.