The Groundhog Experiment

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Have any differences in the results of the different settings become evident?

That, Bradley my dear friend, is precisely what the GE is designed to find out.

A bit too early to tell as yet, but I'm sure some patterns will emerge along the way. I'll be doing a fair bit of analysis of various players starting from 1920.

One thing you'll be interested to hear is that, in the muckabout version that inspired this deeper and more organised dive, while Mr Maris didn't hit 61 in '61, he did hit 62 in '62. That was with Dev on but can't recall the TCR setting. Let's see if that can be replicated here.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: St. Louis Browns (92-60)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (93-61)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-3 after trailing 3-1 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Jack Pfiester

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [3]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown
• AL ROY: Amby McConnell
• NL ROY: John Wilson

Leaders




New career records (note these will only appear at the time the player assumes top spot in the category)

• Cy Young 2598 K

New season records

• Honus Wagner 36 CS
• Bill Grahame 0.80 WHIP

Milestones

• 200 wins: Vic Willis
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney
• 2500 K: Cy Young
• 1500 runs: George Davis
• 1000 runs: Nap Lajoie

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• No-hitter: Sam Leever

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Chicago White Sox (91-61)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (98-56)
• WORLD SERIES: White Sox 4-3 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Ed Walsh

Awards

• AL MVP: Bobby Wallace
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [3]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson [2]
• AL ROY: Amby McConnell
• NL ROY: Al Shaw

Leaders




New career records

• Cy Young 2609 K

New season records

• Honus Wagner 12.17 WAR

Milestones

• 200 wins: Vic Willis, Jack Chesbro, Christy Mathewson
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney, Jimmy Collins
• 2500 K: Cy Young
• 1500 runs: George Davis
• 1000 runs: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• No-hitters: Vive Lindaman threw two
• Perfect game: Ed Walsh

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: St. Louis Browns (88-64)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (105-49)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-1
• WS MVP: Mordecai Brown

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie [3]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [3]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [3]
• NL CYA: Vic Willis
• AL ROY: Neal Ball
• NL ROY: John Wilson

Leaders




New season records

• Billy Sullivan 130 batter strikeouts
• Ed Walsh 1.607 FIP

Milestones

• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Vic Willis, Jack Chesbro
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney, Jimmy Collins
• 2500 K: Cy Young
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell
• 1500 runs: George Davis
• 1000 RBI: Jimmy Collins

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• No-hitters: Doc White
• 30 wins: Harry Howell (first time in modern era)

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

That, Bradley my dear friend, is precisely what the GE is designed to find out.

You hadn't posted anything about that so I wasn't sure. Seemed to be going like your other saves.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

One thing you'll be interested to hear is that, in the muckabout version that inspired this deeper and more organised dive, while Mr Maris didn't hit 61 in '61, he did hit 62 in '62. That was with Dev on but can't recall the TCR setting. Let's see if that can be replicated here.

You're using neutralized stats not real <cough cough> stats, right?

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

You're using neutralized stats not real <cough cough> stats, right?

Never even gone into that part of it. Using real stats.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers (96-57)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (104-50)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-1 (3rd title)
• WS MVP: Roger Bresnahan

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie
• NL MVP: Roger Bresnahan
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [2]
• NL CYA: Ed Reulbach
• AL ROY: Amby McConnell
• NL ROY: John Wilson

Leaders




New season records

• Honus Wagner 13.05 WAR
• Ed Walsh 16.02 pWAR

Milestones

• 200 wins: Vic Willis, Jack Chesbro
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney, Jimmy Collins
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell
• 1000 RBI: Jimmy Collins

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• No-hitters: Billy Campbell

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (93-60)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (103-51)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-2 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Art Devlin

Awards

• AL MVP: Matty McIntyre
• NL MVP: Art Devlin
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [2]
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson
• AL ROY: Gavvy Cravath
• NL ROY: John Wilson

Leaders




New career records

• Cy Young 2595 K

New season records

• Matty McIntyre 10.24 WAR
• Al Bridwell 13 SF

Milestones

• 200 wins: Jesse Tannehill, Vic Willis, Jack Chesbro
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney
• 2500 K: Cy Young
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell
• 1000 RBI: Honus Wagner, Jimmy Collins
• 1500 runs: George Davis
• 1000 runs: Honus Wagner

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• 6-hit games: Red Murray, Sam Crawford
• Hit for the Cycle: Mike Donlin
• No-hitters: Addie Joss, Cy Morgan
• 30-win season: Ed Walsh (first in the modern era)

[luckymann]

• 1908 is of course the year of Merkle’s famous boner. Ahhh, the innocence of the early 20th century.
• Wahoo Sam Crawford didn’t win a Triple Crown – he led the AL in RBI in 1910, 1914 and 1915, led with 16 HR in 1901 but, despite 11 top-10 finishes, surprisingly never won a batting title.
• While he finished his career with a fairly tidy 2.81 mark, Charlie Smith never won an ERA title, nor did Jake Weimer.
• “Turkey” Mike Donlin’s best RBI total was 106 in 1908, when he finished runner-up in that category. He never hit for the cycle.
• Harry Lumley never made it into double-figure HR in his career, finishing with 9 in his rookie 1904 season, 1906 and 1907. Let’s see if he can top his 9 here in r5x2.
• No doubt he was fast, with more than 300 swipes in his career, but Red Murray never led the league in SB. Same goes with Wid Conroy and Matty McIntyre.
• Vive Lindaman – who I’ll have to admit I had not heard of until now – never pitched a no-hitter. Nor did Doc White, Billy Campbell or Cy Morgan. Big Ed Walsh pitched one in 1911, but never a perfect game.
• Johnny Bates only hit 25 HR total in his IRL career, while Tim Jordan’s 14 in r1 closely replicates his league-leading 12 IRL.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

You're using neutralized stats not real <cough cough> stats, right?

The plan here is, from 1920 when the game's stats have had time to accumulate, to run a full analysis across all six sims for every player admitted to the HOF in the game, then to do a few randoms / requests when it's done.

Tell me (a little bit) more about Neutralized stats please. Maybe I'll extend the experiment and redo it using them after I've finished this one.

[Brad K]

Neutralized stats are neutralized against something although I haven't seen it stated exactly what. It may have been stated. If so I missed it. Maybe it wasn't in the thread where this is a big issue.

It would be a fair assumption that the stats where neutralized (by Garlon) using teh same data base he used to create park factors. I asked directly for a confirmation but didn't see an answer.

Real stats are neutralized against the game's park factors file. So if neutralized stats are created as described above then player ratings using either would be the same except for real stats reducing the peak home runs for some players.

However the conclusion offered here

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=331958&page=7

is different from the conclusion from the information above. Both pieces of information came from people in the know so it appears a case of the left hand not knowing what the right is doing.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Neutralized stats are neutralized against something although I haven't seen it stated exactly what. It may have been stated. If so I missed it. Maybe it wasn't in the thread where this is a big issue.

It would be a fair assumption that the stats where neutralized (by Garlon) using teh same data base he used to create park factors. I asked directly for a confirmation but didn't see an answer.

Real stats are neutralized against the game's park factors file. So if neutralized stats are created as described above then player ratings using either would be the same except for real stats reducing the peak home runs for some players.

However the conclusion offered here

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=331958&page=7

is different from the conclusion from the information above. Both pieces of information came from people in the know so it appears a case of the left hand not knowing what the right is doing.

Yeah, OK, I remember leaving that discussion because my head was on the verge of exploding, so I won't be touching them here - I'm all about the real!

[Brad K]

However the current manual claims real stats aren't neutralized even giving the example that if a player played in a hitter friendly ballpark in RL his production would be inflated.

http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/...orical_leagues

Garlon said this is incorrect, that real stats are neutralized against the park factors file, which of course means they aren't real anymore.

Right now I'm going with the idea real and neutralized are the same except for the home run peaks being cut off on real stats.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Right now I'm going with the idea real and neutralized are the same except for the home run peaks being cut off on real stats.

From what I saw in the precursor to the GE, this isn't true. HR records were falling all over the place. McGwire hit 72 one year, plenty of 60+ seasons. I'm hoping to see all this again now that I am paying closer attention to it and recording it for posterity.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Yeah, OK, I remember leaving that discussion because my head was on the verge of exploding, so I won't be touching them here - I'm all about the real!

Then let me give you the quick summary.

You don't have a choice that will give you real..

Real is neutralized and modified.

Neutralized is neutralized.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Then let me give you the quick summary.

You don't have a choice that will give you real..

Real is neutralized and modified.

Neutralized is neutralized.

I've never touched them. And I've seen some amazingly accurate replications of IRL stats. Even in my Bucs save with all the introduced factors, Cobb looks likely to hit very close to his IRL mark with hits. So that'll do me for accuracy.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

From what I saw in the precursor to the GE, this isn't true. HR records were falling all over the place. McGwire hit 72 one year, plenty of 60+ seasons. I'm hoping to see all this again now that I am paying closer attention to it and recording it for posterity.

If a player had several years of super high numbers his ratings will be cut only a little bit from their calculated actual value. Randomness can still easily take him a bit above real life.

If a player had only one super high year like Maris and Johnson then his ratings will be cut a lot from his actual calculated value.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I've never touched them. And I've seen some amazingly accurate replications of IRL stats. Even in my Bucs save with all the introduced factors, Cobb looks likely to hit very close to his IRL mark with hits. So that'll do me for accuracy.

They've only admitted to altering HRs.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

If a player had several years of super high numbers his ratings will be cut only a little bit from their calculated actual value. Randomness can still easily take him a bit above real life.

If a player had only one super high year like Maris and Johnson then his ratings will be cut a lot from his actual calculated value.

Again, I'm not seeing this. Maris had 62 in 1962 on dev only, as I said earlier. Sounds to me like they are making it up as they go along...