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Old 06-01-2021, 02:58 PM   #21
professor ape
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hertston View Post
It happens, as it does in real life. 162 games is plenty for the superiority of a team to manifest itself in results. Over five games, obviously less so, and with a bit of luck any team reaching the playoffs can beat any other.
You nailed it here. If you match up a 113 win team (about a .700 winning percentage) against a .500 team, all other things being equal the .500 team still has a 1 in 6 chance of winning a five game series and a 1 in 8 chance in a seven game series. Playoffs may be fun but they are a tournament and are a horrible way of determining the “best” team.
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Old 06-01-2021, 05:11 PM   #22
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Welcome to my world. So far in '22, I've got 4 seasons with 100+ wins and 4 other seasons with 115+ wins and have not made it past the 2nd round in the playoffs yet. But I win more than my share of Open tourneys so I figure it's just a matter of time.

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Old 06-01-2021, 05:15 PM   #23
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you guys are making me feel bad for my extraordinary luck this year! 4 titles in 5 playoff appearances so far.

though I did just win 1 title all of last year, so maybe it's just my luck evening out.
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Old 06-01-2021, 05:32 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by professor ape View Post
You nailed it here. If you match up a 113 win team (about a .700 winning percentage) against a .500 team, all other things being equal the .500 team still has a 1 in 6 chance of winning a five game series and a 1 in 8 chance in a seven game series. Playoffs may be fun but they are a tournament and are a horrible way of determining the “best” team.
I had a .700 team lose the LCS to a sub .500 team (80-82) 4 out of 5 times.

First trial: Lost in 5
Second trial: Lost in 5
Third trial: Lost in 5
Fourth trial: Won in 7
Fifth trial: Lost in 7

Total W-L: 10W-19L

Maybe there's a hidden buff/debuff that hits teams randomly. Maybe it's something else. I really don't believe it was just simple odds and that I happened to witness a "1 in a million chance" the one time I put that to the test.
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Old 06-01-2021, 05:46 PM   #25
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This was in solo franchise ootp 21, but I once had a team with a really crazy amount of wins (like 130 or close) get knocked out in the wild card round against a sub .500 team. I had a backup save so I ran that series again a few times. My team would always lose. I checked everything, morale, chemistry, etc, nothing stood out. I could only scratch my head and move on to the next season.
I had this happen too in single player. Dominant team and getting smoked in the division series by AI chumps. Kept cheating by alt-F4 after losing to retry the whole series but same thing happened several tries in a row, my team was totally dominated again and again. Figured it was pre-ordained by the OOTP electrons (and one would assume deterministic programming as opposed to random, albeit a small sample) and took the loss. I just roll with it now, frankly upsets are typical baseball.

EDIT: Washington Nationals fan here...

Last edited by Southern_Aristocrat; 06-01-2021 at 05:47 PM. Reason: Cuz I felt like it
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Old 06-03-2021, 03:06 AM   #26
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Baseball playoffs are a crapshoot in real life.

They always have been. They aren't the NBA where players have much more of an influence over the course of any game. The goal should be to make the playoffs, anything past that will always have a combination of good luck with it.
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Old 06-03-2021, 02:49 PM   #27
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Baseball playoffs are a crapshoot in real life.

They always have been. They aren't the NBA where players have much more of an influence over the course of any game. The goal should be to make the playoffs, anything past that will always have a combination of good luck with it.
Along with the influence of individual players in an NBA game, an important factor is that the higher scoring environment compared to baseball reduces the randomness of the result of each game. In an average NBA game, each team averages a little over 100 possessions. That is effectively 100 mini-innings where the team has the opportunity to score. Given that level of repetition, the better team will win a much higher percentage of NBA games than you see in baseball with a lower sample in any given game. Yes, this is another one of my oversimplifications but the principle is sound.
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Old 06-03-2021, 02:52 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by chazzycat View Post
you guys are making me feel bad for my extraordinary luck this year! 4 titles in 5 playoff appearances so far.

though I did just win 1 title all of last year, so maybe it's just my luck evening out.

that's a nice run!
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Old 06-04-2021, 02:13 AM   #29
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There are tons of factors to this as well. Is the team with the worse record really paying attention and adjusting team strategy, starting lineups, etc in the playoffs to target the opposing team? Did the worse team have bad #4 and 5 starters that don't factor in nearly as much in the playoffs? Did the team with the worse record just finish up negro league collections and add Gibson, Robinson, Charleston and Paige right at the end of the season or just get on a hot streak and pull some historical perfects that are difference makers?

Stuff like that can make a huge difference in a 7 game series vs the grind of a 162 game season just like in real life.

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Old 06-07-2021, 08:58 AM   #30
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Well I'm happy that after 8x 100+ win seasons without a championship, my team came in clutch on the first week where winning it all would get me to perfect team. Maybe dumping a pitcher to add 100 Heilman just for a few rare LHP DH opportunities made the difference. I can't say because I wasn't home and don't know how to see what happened in last season's playoffs! (The split by last year and double-split by playoffs doesn't show any data for any of my players.)
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Old 06-07-2021, 01:31 PM   #31
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Id like to see the playoffs change. Make the WC a 3-game series. The DS 7-game. Or, just get rid of divisions, just have 2 leagues. Top 6 teams makes playoffs in each league. Top 2 teams get BYE into LDS. Then have 4 teams play in 5-game WC to see who goes against 1 and 2 seeds.
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Old 06-07-2021, 10:36 PM   #32
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Id like to see the playoffs change. Make the WC a 3-game series. The DS 7-game. Or, just get rid of divisions, just have 2 leagues. Top 6 teams makes playoffs in each league. Top 2 teams get BYE into LDS. Then have 4 teams play in 5-game WC to see who goes against 1 and 2 seeds.
I like your suggestions but I expect that an issue is that the team wants to maintain a close adherence to real life structure to make the game more familiar to a wider audience. Having more casual players buy the game and participate in Perfect Team benefits us all.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:01 AM   #33
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Playoffs are a joke

Starting last season the playoffs became completely random. Just OOTP way to try and force people to spend more real money. Don't fall for it. There is no statistically accuracy with this game anymore. Just OOTP trying to manipulate everything to get more cash. It is really quite sad.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:58 AM   #34
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Starting last season the playoffs became completely random. Just OOTP way to try and force people to spend more real money. Don't fall for it. There is no statistically accuracy with this game anymore. Just OOTP trying to manipulate everything to get more cash. It is really quite sad.
Not again...

And what exactly does "completely random" mean? Are you saying the game is rolling dice for results without any dependence on players? If you honestly believe that, I'm not even sure what to say to you that doesn't get borderline.

If you actually believe that stuff, find another game to play. Please. I'm really burned out hearing ridiculous conspiracies.
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Old 06-15-2021, 07:23 PM   #35
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If I was wealthy, I'd buy some of you cheese as a companion. If pouring money in was all it took, Steinbrenner would have had about 25 WS wins during his tenure. Out of politeness, I won't bring up the obvious corollary.
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Old 06-19-2021, 04:14 AM   #36
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Not again...

And what exactly does "completely random" mean? Are you saying the game is rolling dice for results without any dependence on players? If you honestly believe that, I'm not even sure what to say to you that doesn't get borderline.

If you actually believe that stuff, find another game to play. Please. I'm really burned out hearing ridiculous conspiracies.

Completely random, as in the likelihood of Mike Trout going 1-12 in a series is just as likely as he is going 10-12 in that same series if they played it again. Baseball and tiny sample sizes will always have wacky results.


Not directing this next part at you, I'm pretty sure you understand that. He just doesn't seem to understand sample sizes and randomness that occurs all the time over baseball. It's just how baseball is set up to work.


You want to know who the actual best baseball team is any given year? It's the one that won the most games over the course of 162 of them.



You want to know who got hot and hit/pitched to the good end of the random results that baseball throws out over the course of a couple series? The team that wins the world series.
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Old 06-19-2021, 05:39 AM   #37
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Just OOTP trying to manipulate everything to get more cash.
Well.. the entire purpose of PT is to 'get more cash', just like every other game monetized in the same fashion in what has now sadly become an industry standard. The ethics of the methodology used have been widely discussed, and I won't repeat here.

However.. surely introducing 'randomness' would have the completely opposite effect to what you suggest? If you wish people to spend, then you want results to be predictable, not random. Spending will only lead to more spending if it produces a tangible advantage shown by results.
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Old 06-21-2021, 10:28 PM   #38
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Well.. the entire purpose of PT is to 'get more cash', just like every other game monetized in the same fashion in what has now sadly become an industry standard. The ethics of the methodology used have been widely discussed, and I won't repeat here.

However.. surely introducing 'randomness' would have the completely opposite effect to what you suggest? If you wish people to spend, then you want results to be predictable, not random. Spending will only lead to more spending if it produces a tangible advantage shown by results.
Yer wrong. The $$$ payout is the whales but since they all have the same team massive randomness is important. My Cy Young has 9.62 ERA in Diamond league after 4 (edit : started) games, small sample size yes. But variability is key to sucking up money, not stability of this player will perform this way all the time.

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Old 06-22-2021, 11:40 AM   #39
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Real life has a huge random element both at the player and the team level. My team had been a middle of the road Diamond crew but got knocked back to Gold for the first time last week. As expected, I shot through the regular season with 110 wins but lost my first round matchup against a 90 win team. It happens. So I’m still in Gold for at least another week but should have at least a two in three chance of getting back up into a Diamond League next week.
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Old 06-22-2021, 12:34 PM   #40
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However.. surely introducing 'randomness' would have the completely opposite effect to what you suggest? If you wish people to spend, then you want results to be predictable, not random. Spending will only lead to more spending if it produces a tangible advantage shown by results.
To me, the game MUST have a strong element of randomness, simply because real baseball has a strong element of randomness. The game is designed to appeal to hardcore baseball fans, who would be very turned-off by unrealistically predictable results.
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