Anyway to have 100 sb' in a season? - Page 2

Erich Ingram · 04-22-2003, 04:17 PM

Go in and up the teams stealing percentage as high as it will go on the team strategies and then do the same for the player and that will give you the best chance

JAttractive · 04-22-2003, 04:19 PM

It also nullifies the double play but that being said I still don't think it is very valuable unless you can successfully steal at a very high rate. If a guy can't steal with 75%+ efficiency the red light is on for him and I usually demand at least 80%. Being thrown out is just such a huge blow in my mind. If your team can hit any amount of homers or extra base hits I simply wouldn't rely on it much at all. Keep in mind that being thrown out also reduces the number of pitches a pitcher must throw (one less batter or more to face) which means he can go that much deeper in the game. Personally I always try to get opposing pitchers out of the game as quick as I can because eventually ONE of their relievers is going to have a bad game and mess things up. Getting caught is just such a blow in the opposite direction of that though I don't even consider stealing much of an option.

Go check my LBA team in my sig if you want to see how little I think of them. My team was one measly run from having the highest offense and yet my ENTIRE team I believe stole 7 bases with about 4 caught stealing (hard to tell exactly now since I let a number of guys go and signed a few more who had stolen some bases on other teams). Being essentially the top offense in the league helps to confirm in my mind that is not a required strategy and should be limited only to the elite basestealers.

Gastric ReFlux · 04-22-2003, 04:20 PM

I believe its effect is rather small on most major-league pitchers. I also feel reasonably confident in the methods used by those who have studied the issue and their conclusions that a stolen base is worth about 1/3 of a run.

satchel · 04-22-2003, 04:28 PM

In the ‘Delmar Miller’ case I think that 116 stolen bases will result in more than 8 extra runs, even subtracting the penalty of getting caught 45 times.

Total Nirvana · 04-22-2003, 04:57 PM

It can work out if you can produce runs in a hurry in your roster. For example, In a solo league, I have Damien Miller (SS, A speed, A stealing and A in bunting for hits) who stole 97 Bases, then I have Adam Owens (CF, A speed, C stealing, B Bunting for hits, and a good contact and power hitter) steal 57 bases, with 112 runs.

It's great to have two speedsters go 1-2 in the line-up, in case one doesn't get on, you have the 2nd guy to try to get on base.

Back to the original topic, you have got to have a team that produces runs, and can bring up 4-5 hitters in the first couple of innings.

Peterk · 04-24-2003, 01:17 AM

I've got a 2B who made 124 in one of his first seasons (I play ever single game in 162 game seasons). No-one's even come close since then.

Has anyone noticed that AI team's seem to run more often on you when you play the game out as opposed to simming. I've never followed up on it , but it seems that computer teams steal attempts vs me is always much higher than steal attempts versus the rest of the league.

statfreak · 04-24-2003, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rolen17
Go in and up the teams stealing percentage as high as it will go on the team strategies and then do the same for the player and that will give you the best chance

This only works for a human controlled team, as the AI will change the settings in OOTP5. One of the few things I prefer in OOTP4 was the ability to be able to set preferences for each team in the league.

Maybe OOTP6 will either add SB to the league totals to or make it an option in the ERA settings.

dbacks · 04-24-2003, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sttfrk
This only works for a human controlled team, as the AI will change the settings in OOTP5. One of the few things I prefer in OOTP4 was the ability to be able to set preferences for each team in the league.

You couldn't even do that much when you were in challenge mode.

dbacks · 04-24-2003, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sttfrk
Maybe OOTP6 will either add SB to the league totals to or make it an option in the ERA settings.

Now THAT is something I have wanted for quite some time now. I'm all for that suggestion.

Springtime_for_Hunter · 04-24-2003, 04:47 AM

In OOTP, I find that stealing often increases pitch counts, since there's no "take" option for the batter, and attempting a steal is the only way to competely prevent him from swinging.

Whether stolen bases are a good strategy or not depends a lot on your team. If you get a lot of ground outs, stealing becomes a much better idea. I had a guy in a 2/3-season slump one year, whose only real production was groundouts to second base. He still managed to drive in 135 runs, because he batted behind my two speedsters and almost always had a man on third.

It's not that difficult to get 85% or so with B/C guys if you pick your spots right (20-30 SBs/year), and at that rate it's definitely worth it. The most I've stolen is 89 with an A/B guy, and he was 89/105 (85%) not constantly running. He's 219/256 (86%) in three years with me, which is almost 50 runs added by the traditional counting, but probably a few more since he was batting second ahead of Captain Groundout for the 89 SB year. My leadoff man that year was 88/100, but he lost a step (A/C to B/C) and I've stopped running with him so much. In 3 1/2 seasons with me he's 184/221 (83%).

I've never had an A/A guy who was any good at getting on base, though.

Cuss16 · 04-24-2003, 05:02 AM

i have seen a player over at the BPLA already stolen 69 bat the all-star break.

CBL-Commish · 04-24-2003, 08:14 AM

This 1/3 for a steal, -2/3 for a caught isn't just something made up, it was derived from looking at all the base/out situations for all teams in the majors over a many-year period, then figuring out the difference in runs scored resulting from, say, man on first with none out, and comparing that to a man on second with none out, or none on with one out. I think Pete Palmer was one of the first to do this in The Hidden Game of Baseball back in the '80s, but others have gone about figuring the same thing and got nearly the same results.

This is also where the 66% break-even rate comes from. If you're not stealing at greater than a 66% success rate you are actually costing your team runs. Also, this 66% rate was derived in the 80s when runs scored (and homers and extra base hits) were significantly less than today. The effect of this is that a single base (like from a steal) is worth less now, and an out is even more valuable. In today's game the break-even point is probably more like 70% or so.

Putting all of this together, if you're not stealing frequently at a 80% or 90% success rate you're just not putting that many runs on the board.

cooper_gd · 04-24-2003, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Qrusher14242
I cant seem to get over 70 or so SB in a season, i've simmed hundred's of years and never seen anyone get 80.

I had Irchiro do it in v4 on a human team whre most of the games were simmed... it was custom fictional league with some real players - and he did it in 154 games.

In all I've had maybe 4-5 guys with over 100... all on teams that I have managed but simmed most of the games. All in versions prev to 5 as well... 66 is the most that I have had in v5 with a .400 obp B/B leadoff guy - individual steal setting maxed out.

morningstar8 · 04-24-2003, 10:18 AM

I purposefully drafted guys with good D and speed, and I ran 'em. I had another guy that year with 78 steals and 30 caught. Yeah, I know, statistically they might not have been a huge deal, but it was fun. I did what I could to win with that lineup, and I got the Brewers into the championship series that year, with 100 regular season wins. Besides, the fans liked it :-) FYI, almost all of those steals were steals of second base.

By the 1/3-2/3 measure, Ricky Henderson 1982 (130 stolen, 42 caught) netted his team 15 runs on stolen bases alone.

FYI, here are Delmar Miller's basic stats from that game year:
G 160
AB 629
H 194
2B 29
3B 11
HR 3
RBI 51
R 128
K 117
BB 106
SB 116
CS 45
AVG .308
OBP .408
SLG .404

Qrusher14242 · 04-24-2003, 11:44 AM

What about teams you didnt manage? How many has a guy got on them? After 73 years the most i've seen on this one sim is 72.

JAttractive · 04-24-2003, 11:59 AM

CBL- Commish:
Exactly. In modern baseball I firmly believe the 66% rule is no longer accurate. The more commonplace the homerun is on a team the less valuable stealing a base becomes. That 66% rule was made before the homerun explosion and is why I don't let my players run at all if they are under 75% and only frequently if it is 80% or higher.

The fact that people still cling to the notion that the SB is so valuable is a carry-over from previous eras where the game was different. Most people seem to refuse to accept the notion that is no longer an important tool and in fact many players now do so at the detriment of their team. The one good thing about it however is that overall even a player who is stealing at 66% or so probably isn't costing his team all that many runs so it doesn't have a huge negative effect on the offense either. Still for those looking for maximum results I would use this strategy sparingly and consider that the 66% rule needs to be reevaluated at a higher value.

CBL-Commish · 04-24-2003, 12:08 PM

JAttractive - you have it right, but I want to stress that in other eras the steal was a valuable thing. When runs are at a premium, and extra-base hits are rare (say in the 1900s and 1910s) one-run strategies become more important. The correlation between steals and runs scored was much higher in the deadball era. Today there's almost no correlation - bad, low-scoring teams steal with at least as much frequency as high-scoring teams. But that's not always been the case.

JAttractive · 04-24-2003, 02:28 PM

Good points as well. It definitely has it's benefits during different era's. But as you pointed out today there seems to be almost no correlation. As I said in an earlier post my LBA team essentially had the top offense in the whole league (1 run short) but with 7 Sb's for the entire team. This is in a league where homeruns aren't even as common as they are today (no one has reached 50 so far though a number in the 40s) either. One could argue that maybe I would have had even more if I ran and I won't dispute that is a possibility. I would need to run tons of different tests using the two strategies and then compare.

Regardless of how that would work out though I maintain that it is not a critical cog to the offense and if 66% was valid years ago it certainly seems plausible that it should be raised higher and higher as homerun numbers increase (since the stolen base in these instance gives no benefit when one was hit but still come at the same risk/cost if caught). If you can accept the 66% rule as accurate the logic would dictate that it goes up as homerun frequency increases for the reason just given in the brackets. I have no idea what that number would be now but my hunch tells me it is close to 75% or higher meaning only the elite basestealers should consider this as an option.

Mariner and Giants Fan · 04-24-2003, 02:36 PM

I predict that we will never see another 500-500 guy. Bonds may well be the first and the last!

Gastric ReFlux · 04-24-2003, 02:40 PM

I was reading something quite related to Jattractive's point. In it, the writer noted that SBs become less valuable as the number of run per game increase, simply because it means that a runner who gets on base is more likely to score because of what his teammates following him do. So as the runs per game goes up, the value of a successful steal goes down and the penalty of getting caught stealing becomes more severe.

There is one thing which may help to increase the value of the stolen base in OOTP. I'm just speculating here, but because the game engine is one-pitch mode, I don't know if OOTP models how pitch counts affect batting average. Many times when base stealing has been studied, it has been discovered that stolen base attempts have negative effects on the batting average of the hitter at the plate. Probably caused by falling behind in the count.

04-22-2003, 04:17 PM	#21
Erich Ingram Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 2,201	Go in and up the teams stealing percentage as high as it will go on the team strategies and then do the same for the player and that will give you the best chance __________________ Erich Ingram (Rolen17) IOSBL San Diego Aztecs 2010, 2012,2013, 2014 World Series Champions Maelstrom Padres 2026 World Champions eMLB Washington Nationals

04-22-2003, 04:28 PM	#24
satchel Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Ft Smith Ark. USA Posts: 2,681	steals In the ‘Delmar Miller’ case I think that 116 stolen bases will result in more than 8 extra runs, even subtracting the penalty of getting caught 45 times. __________________ JL Commish NPBL Rhode Island Reds ’33 ’34 ’35 TCBA San Francisco Railbornes ’74 ’76 ’77 ’78 FL New Orleans Black Sox ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59

04-22-2003, 04:57 PM	#25
Total Nirvana All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: San Diego, California Posts: 750	It can work out if you can produce runs in a hurry in your roster. For example, In a solo league, I have Damien Miller (SS, A speed, A stealing and A in bunting for hits) who stole 97 Bases, then I have Adam Owens (CF, A speed, C stealing, B Bunting for hits, and a good contact and power hitter) steal 57 bases, with 112 runs. It's great to have two speedsters go 1-2 in the line-up, in case one doesn't get on, you have the 2nd guy to try to get on base. Back to the original topic, you have got to have a team that produces runs, and can bring up 4-5 hitters in the first couple of innings. __________________ Total Hockey Commissioner Your Off-Topic Nightmare. Free Agent OT Player - Plays 1B/3B/OF, hits for power on all fields, great fielder, can hit .330 a season!

04-24-2003, 04:47 AM	#30
Springtime_for_Hunter All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 846	In OOTP, I find that stealing often increases pitch counts, since there's no "take" option for the batter, and attempting a steal is the only way to competely prevent him from swinging. Whether stolen bases are a good strategy or not depends a lot on your team. If you get a lot of ground outs, stealing becomes a much better idea. I had a guy in a 2/3-season slump one year, whose only real production was groundouts to second base. He still managed to drive in 135 runs, because he batted behind my two speedsters and almost always had a man on third. It's not that difficult to get 85% or so with B/C guys if you pick your spots right (20-30 SBs/year), and at that rate it's definitely worth it. The most I've stolen is 89 with an A/B guy, and he was 89/105 (85%) not constantly running. He's 219/256 (86%) in three years with me, which is almost 50 runs added by the traditional counting, but probably a few more since he was batting second ahead of Captain Groundout for the 89 SB year. My leadoff man that year was 88/100, but he lost a step (A/C to B/C) and I've stopped running with him so much. In 3 1/2 seasons with me he's 184/221 (83%). I've never had an A/A guy who was any good at getting on base, though. __________________ "Only the utterly impossible, the inexpressibly fantastic, can ever be plausible again" Red Smith, New York Herald-Tribune, October 4, 1951

04-24-2003, 05:02 AM	#31
Cuss16 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: BC, CANADA Posts: 2,994	i have seen a player over at the BPLA already stolen 69 bat the all-star break. __________________

04-22-2003, 04:19 PM	#22
JAttractive All Star Starter Join Date: May 2002 Location: St. Catharines, Ontario Posts: 1,135	It also nullifies the double play but that being said I still don't think it is very valuable unless you can successfully steal at a very high rate. If a guy can't steal with 75%+ efficiency the red light is on for him and I usually demand at least 80%. Being thrown out is just such a huge blow in my mind. If your team can hit any amount of homers or extra base hits I simply wouldn't rely on it much at all. Keep in mind that being thrown out also reduces the number of pitches a pitcher must throw (one less batter or more to face) which means he can go that much deeper in the game. Personally I always try to get opposing pitchers out of the game as quick as I can because eventually ONE of their relievers is going to have a bad game and mess things up. Getting caught is just such a blow in the opposite direction of that though I don't even consider stealing much of an option. Go check my LBA team in my sig if you want to see how little I think of them. My team was one measly run from having the highest offense and yet my ENTIRE team I believe stole 7 bases with about 4 caught stealing (hard to tell exactly now since I let a number of guys go and signed a few more who had stolen some bases on other teams). Being essentially the top offense in the league helps to confirm in my mind that is not a required strategy and should be limited only to the elite basestealers.

04-22-2003, 04:20 PM	#23
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	I believe its effect is rather small on most major-league pitchers. I also feel reasonably confident in the methods used by those who have studied the issue and their conclusions that a stolen base is worth about 1/3 of a run.

04-24-2003, 01:17 AM	#26
Peterk Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Montreal Posts: 220	I've got a 2B who made 124 in one of his first seasons (I play ever single game in 162 game seasons). No-one's even come close since then. Has anyone noticed that AI team's seem to run more often on you when you play the game out as opposed to simming. I've never followed up on it , but it seems that computer teams steal attempts vs me is always much higher than steal attempts versus the rest of the league.

04-24-2003, 08:14 AM	#32
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	This 1/3 for a steal, -2/3 for a caught isn't just something made up, it was derived from looking at all the base/out situations for all teams in the majors over a many-year period, then figuring out the difference in runs scored resulting from, say, man on first with none out, and comparing that to a man on second with none out, or none on with one out. I think Pete Palmer was one of the first to do this in The Hidden Game of Baseball back in the '80s, but others have gone about figuring the same thing and got nearly the same results. This is also where the 66% break-even rate comes from. If you're not stealing at greater than a 66% success rate you are actually costing your team runs. Also, this 66% rate was derived in the 80s when runs scored (and homers and extra base hits) were significantly less than today. The effect of this is that a single base (like from a steal) is worth less now, and an out is even more valuable. In today's game the break-even point is probably more like 70% or so. Putting all of this together, if you're not stealing frequently at a 80% or 90% success rate you're just not putting that many runs on the board. __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com

04-24-2003, 10:18 AM	#34
morningstar8 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Milwaukee, WI Posts: 82	I purposefully drafted guys with good D and speed, and I ran 'em. I had another guy that year with 78 steals and 30 caught. Yeah, I know, statistically they might not have been a huge deal, but it was fun. I did what I could to win with that lineup, and I got the Brewers into the championship series that year, with 100 regular season wins. Besides, the fans liked it :-) FYI, almost all of those steals were steals of second base. By the 1/3-2/3 measure, Ricky Henderson 1982 (130 stolen, 42 caught) netted his team 15 runs on stolen bases alone. FYI, here are Delmar Miller's basic stats from that game year: G 160 AB 629 H 194 2B 29 3B 11 HR 3 RBI 51 R 128 K 117 BB 106 SB 116 CS 45 AVG .308 OBP .408 SLG .404

04-24-2003, 11:44 AM	#35
Qrusher14242 All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: CA Posts: 1,253	What about teams you didnt manage? How many has a guy got on them? After 73 years the most i've seen on this one sim is 72.

04-24-2003, 11:59 AM	#36
JAttractive All Star Starter Join Date: May 2002 Location: St. Catharines, Ontario Posts: 1,135	CBL- Commish: Exactly. In modern baseball I firmly believe the 66% rule is no longer accurate. The more commonplace the homerun is on a team the less valuable stealing a base becomes. That 66% rule was made before the homerun explosion and is why I don't let my players run at all if they are under 75% and only frequently if it is 80% or higher. The fact that people still cling to the notion that the SB is so valuable is a carry-over from previous eras where the game was different. Most people seem to refuse to accept the notion that is no longer an important tool and in fact many players now do so at the detriment of their team. The one good thing about it however is that overall even a player who is stealing at 66% or so probably isn't costing his team all that many runs so it doesn't have a huge negative effect on the offense either. Still for those looking for maximum results I would use this strategy sparingly and consider that the 66% rule needs to be reevaluated at a higher value.

04-24-2003, 12:08 PM	#37
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	JAttractive - you have it right, but I want to stress that in other eras the steal was a valuable thing. When runs are at a premium, and extra-base hits are rare (say in the 1900s and 1910s) one-run strategies become more important. The correlation between steals and runs scored was much higher in the deadball era. Today there's almost no correlation - bad, low-scoring teams steal with at least as much frequency as high-scoring teams. But that's not always been the case. __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com

04-24-2003, 02:28 PM	#38
JAttractive All Star Starter Join Date: May 2002 Location: St. Catharines, Ontario Posts: 1,135	Good points as well. It definitely has it's benefits during different era's. But as you pointed out today there seems to be almost no correlation. As I said in an earlier post my LBA team essentially had the top offense in the whole league (1 run short) but with 7 Sb's for the entire team. This is in a league where homeruns aren't even as common as they are today (no one has reached 50 so far though a number in the 40s) either. One could argue that maybe I would have had even more if I ran and I won't dispute that is a possibility. I would need to run tons of different tests using the two strategies and then compare. Regardless of how that would work out though I maintain that it is not a critical cog to the offense and if 66% was valid years ago it certainly seems plausible that it should be raised higher and higher as homerun numbers increase (since the stolen base in these instance gives no benefit when one was hit but still come at the same risk/cost if caught). If you can accept the 66% rule as accurate the logic would dictate that it goes up as homerun frequency increases for the reason just given in the brackets. I have no idea what that number would be now but my hunch tells me it is close to 75% or higher meaning only the elite basestealers should consider this as an option.

04-24-2003, 02:36 PM	#39
Mariner and Giants Fan All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Port Townsend, WA. Posts: 1,264	I predict that we will never see another 500-500 guy. Bonds may well be the first and the last! __________________ Hebrews 11:1 "Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen"

04-24-2003, 02:40 PM	#40
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	I was reading something quite related to Jattractive's point. In it, the writer noted that SBs become less valuable as the number of run per game increase, simply because it means that a runner who gets on base is more likely to score because of what his teammates following him do. So as the runs per game goes up, the value of a successful steal goes down and the penalty of getting caught stealing becomes more severe. There is one thing which may help to increase the value of the stolen base in OOTP. I'm just speculating here, but because the game engine is one-pitch mode, I don't know if OOTP models how pitch counts affect batting average. Many times when base stealing has been studied, it has been discovered that stolen base attempts have negative effects on the batting average of the hitter at the plate. Probably caused by falling behind in the count.