Total amounts of cards that changed tiers in live update

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Sipimi

Regarding Bellinger, maybe he was a 100+++ like Mike Trout, so even with a bad year, he's not going to go under 100.

I would venture to guess this is probably correct.

The aging curve is a huge part of projection systems, including ZiPS. Bellinger put up 7.8 WAR at age 24, which is pretty amazing. I'm guessing that bought him sufficient goodwill to withstand a subpar 2020.

[MaroonAlberich]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I would venture to guess this is probably correct.

The aging curve is a huge part of projection systems, including ZiPS. Bellinger put up 7.8 WAR at age 24, which is pretty amazing. I'm guessing that bought him sufficient goodwill to withstand a subpar 2020.

So if I understand it correctly, live OVRs are kind of like college football rankings. If you're Alabama or Ohio State, you have to lose at home to Southern Montana to fall out of the top 5. Same for live OVRs? If you're projected to be Godlike, it's nearly impossible for the models to "admit their mistakes" and rate you as you deserve to be rated?

[dboeyr12007]

I wish every live fell below perfect. Would make opening a perfect a lot more fun.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by MaroonAlberich

So if I understand it correctly, live OVRs are kind of like college football rankings. If you're Alabama or Ohio State, you have to lose at home to Southern Montana to fall out of the top 5. Same for live OVRs? If you're projected to be Godlike, it's nearly impossible for the models to "admit their mistakes" and rate you as you deserve to be rated?

Hahah, no I think it's much simpler than college football rankings. Some of Bellinger's individual batting ratings should have fallen a bit due to his poor 2020. Just not enough to change the OVR because he was probably a true 105 or something. If he continues hitting poorly next year it will definitely catch up at some point.

[allenciox]

So, end-of-season update has 3 cards going to perfect --- first cards all year moving from diamond to perfect!

Cards rising (parentheses show the corresponding numbers for Sep 21, Sep 7, Aug 24, and Aug 10 update respectively)

90s->100: 3 ( 0, 0, 0, 0)
80s->90s: 2 ( 3, 5, 6, 8)
70s->80s: 8 (13, 11, 21, 19)
60s->70s: 14 (28, 22, 59, 51)
50s->60s: 11 (18, 27, 27, 63)
Total: 38 (62, 65,113,141)

Cards dropping:

100->90s: 1 ( 1, 0, 0, 2)
90s->80s: 2 ( 7, 3, 5, 4)
80s->70s: 8 (10, 14, 13, 28)
70s->60s: 17 (31, 37, 24, 55)
70s->50s 0 ( 1, 0, 0, 0)
60s->50s: 25 (22, 17, 30, 22)
Total: 53 (72, 71, 72,111)

There were 1342 total cards, of which 16 were new.

The largest drop was 16 points, and 7 cards dropped at least 10 points.

The biggest gain was 9 as Michael King went from a 41 to a 50.
A significant number of players have changed two tiers across all updates this season: 9 up two tiers(3 fewer than last update), and three down two tiers (one more than last update):

Up two tiers:
Dimelso Lamet(67->88)
Freddy Peralta(62->87)
James Karinchak(65->86)
Peter Fairbanks(71->87)
Jose Cisnero(59->72)
Mike Mayers(56->71)
Jalen Beeks(59->71)
Greg Holland(59->71)
Jake McGee (59->70)

Down two tiers:
Joe Jimenez(81->63)
Matt Barnes(80->68)
Jairo Diaz (78->57)

The "nosedive" award goes to:
Jairo Diaz (down 21 points total)
Adam Plutko (down 20 points, for honorable mention)

The "Up-Up-Up" award goes to Freddy Peralta --- he was up 25 points, four more than anybody else.


Takeaways:
Since this update was just a week, it is no surprise that the number of players who changed levels was significantly smaller than any of the updates previous. There are two exceptions to this:
1. The three players moving to perfect level
I am very happy to see this, particularly since the batting WAR leader (by a considerable margin) for the year was Freeman, and he was promoted to perfect, and the pitching WAR leader for the year was Bieber, and he was also promoted.

2. The number of players dropping from bronze to iron exceeded all previous updates except one.
This actually supports the idea that a lot of these players had moments in the sun but had to come back down to earth eventually.

[jaronal]

I actually thought thinks would stabilize more in the second two weeks than in the first two weeks, but the reverse seems to have occurred.
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