60 regular packs or 4 diamonds?

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by bradycincy

I have ripped upward of 500 packs between 2 teams with only ONE perfect card in that time. 100 Acuna Live card. That has to be terrible luck right?

It ain’t good luck, that’s for sure. 😉

[jd200600]

Originally Posted by bradycincy

I ripped 40 packs, 2 historical, and 3 gold 2 days ago. The result along with being able to quick sell and use the AH after the initial rip session for an additional 20 reg packs is below:

Lucas Giolitodiamond
Gary Sheffielddiamond
Lefty O'Douldiamond
Miguel Cabreradiamond
Ray Primgold
Kirby Yatesgoldx2
Al Leitergold
Sixto Sanchezgold
Bernie Williamsgold
Mark Davisgold
Matt Lindstromgold
Paul Wanergold
Willie Hernandezgold
Don Bufordgold
Frank Howardgold
Bo Jacksongold
Dom DiMaggiogold
Oliver Marcellsilver
Marcus Simiengold
Zach Greinkegold
Aaron Judgediamond
Didi Gregoriousgold


I have ripped upward of 500 packs between 2 teams with only ONE perfect card in that time. 100 Acuna Live card. That has to be terrible luck right?

Your luck has been great compared to mine! See my post above...which is like every other pack opening that I have done the past two versions.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by jd200600

Your luck has been great compared to mine! See my post above...which is like every other pack opening that I have done the past two versions.

I’ve gone through waves over the past couple of months as I open packs won in tournaments. About a month ago there was a stretch where it felt like I was getting a Gold or Diamond card in every other pack including some which sold for a premium which funded my acquisition of a few cards I had targeted. Over the past couple of weeks the well has been dry with just a couple of weaker live Gold cards.

[Ben Music]

Just bought 60 packs.
1 perfect - Jacob deGrom (boo)
2 Diamond (Todd Helton, Alex Bregman)
4 Gold (1 historical)

Due to deGrom and Helton, I probably got enough to recoup the cost.

[2tango2]

Been really hit or miss with the packs...my latest best pulls have been 100 Guidry and 94 or 95 Molitor. Been doing ok with the live Diamonds and Golds. The only tourneys I do are Bronze ones so I pretty much sell those the live Di and golds right away.

Team got a wakeup call in Diamond this season. If you want to compete in Diamond with the big hitters, you better have big hitters

[Ben Music]

Originally Posted by 2tango2

Team got a wakeup call in Diamond this season. If you want to compete in Diamond with the big hitters, you better have big hitters

Same here. It's my first season in Diamond and I'm getting destroyed.

[Ben Music]

Deleted

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Torgonius

Maybe it's just variance, but seeing other people talking about it makes me lean more towards the devs tweaking the algorithm in response to our recent feedback.

It's just variance

[jd200600]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’ve gone through waves over the past couple of months as I open packs won in tournaments. About a month ago there was a stretch where it felt like I was getting a Gold or Diamond card in every other pack including some which sold for a premium which funded my acquisition of a few cards I had targeted. Over the past couple of weeks the well has been dry with just a couple of weaker live Gold cards.

I think this is my big problem. I open hundreds of packs each year, not thousands, so I never feel like I hit a good patch. Of course, I have never hit anything above a 95 in a pack.

[bradycincy]

Originally Posted by jd200600

Your luck has been great compared to mine! See my post above...which is like every other pack opening that I have done the past two versions.

Just went for a total revamp of my main team by selling most of my SE cards (35k) and Gary Sheffield for 88k. Only two I have left are Ichiro (earned 10600 PP so far, 8 time All-Star) and Carlton (earned 8705 PP in 7.5 seasons)

67 regular 2 diamond
Bob Veale Diamond 92 Jimmie Fox 93 historical
Marcus Stroman Gold 80 Ken Boyer 93 historical
Chris Sale Diamond 93
Clem Labine Diamond 96
Snuffy Stirnweiss Gold 87
DJ Lemahieu Gold 86
Jose Berrios Gold 81
Yoan Moncada Gold 84
Omar Narvaez Gold 81
Bob Locker Gold 80
Vlad Guerrero Jr Gold 83
Craig Kimbrel Gold 87
Rod Carew Diamond 91

And with that nearly 600 packs opened now and only 1 LIVE perfect. Crazy

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’ve gone through waves over the past couple of months as I open packs won in tournaments. About a month ago there was a stretch where it felt like I was getting a Gold or Diamond card in every other pack including some which sold for a premium which funded my acquisition of a few cards I had targeted. Over the past couple of weeks the well has been dry with just a couple of weaker live Gold cards.

You can definitely get on some wild runs, where it feels like you'll never pull a good card/never have a bad pack again. I've gone over a hundred packs without pulling a diamond, and I've pulled 3 historical perfects in the space of 50 packs. Randomness is weird.

[tykond]

I just opened 79 packs, here are my dismal results:

Realmuto Diamond
Bryant Diamond
Mike Moore Gold
Adrian Gonzalez Gold
Darren Holmes Gold
Trea Turner Gold
Kevin Gausman Gold
Pete Alonso Gold
Chris Archer Gold

Super disappointing, but the way things have gone the last few weeks with the game, I shouldn't expect much else. Can't do much with the points, don't get much in the packs.

[Lemandria]

I recently acquired that lists for 300-500k.

It is a helluva card, and I'll almost certainly never see it's like again.

OTOH I could rip 500 packs, which would (average) 2.5 perfects and roughly 10 diamonds, 25 golds which would certainly offer a lot more options for team building and/or collection completion.

If I hold the card, ootp may "ruin" its value with unpredictable future content releases.

I'm a realist about binomial probabilities, and I certainly know PRNGs can't be forced to produce "luck". More than possible to end up with a massive pile of useless crap.

But I am tempted, ripping packs can be very, very fun.

Peddling 2500 cards, otoh, would be misery. For me. (Whups, 3000 counting the bronzes.)

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by bradycincy

I have ripped upward of 500 packs between 2 teams with only ONE perfect card in that time. 100 Acuna Live card. That has to be terrible luck right?

While it's definitely bad luck, it's not nearly as bad as you might think... the odds on the perfect cards are incredibly low. With 500 packs, the average is 2.5 so you expect two or three. The other way to look at it is that the average is 200 packs opened for each perfect.

I've had three perfects in just over 300 packs opened, which definitely qualifies as good luck. Between the two of us, though, we've hit very close to the average. (I'm sure that's small comfort to the guy that ended up on the bad luck side of average.) Really, I'm surprised that they didn't put in any code to mitigate the pure RNG.

[willat0660]

Originally Posted by thejojo

I bought 93 packs and got 0 perfects 3 diamonds (2 live) and a ton of gold and silver (only 2 historical silvers).

That's depressing. It's also a bit of a pain to unload all the duplicates that you end up with.

I don't know how many packs I've opened since March (many!), still waiting for a Perfect card. Jeez, it would be nice to get a few non Live Diamonds even!

They unveil all these great cards every few weeks, I look at them and think how great it would be to get a few, but then I realize that I've never got one in three years of playing this game. I never thought I'd get tired of opening packs, but the enthusiasm is gone.

[Guancous]

Everyone in this thread deserves a historical Diamond for coming in 4th in a Bronze tournament.

[BatAround]

Bright side: the new packs and resulting discussion has knocked tanking discussion off of the forum.

[Rookie80924]

Originally Posted by Sipimi

Canadian God ranking of the options
#3 - 4 diamond since you'll likely get 4 Josh Hader.

Knowing my luck, I would choose #1 and get 8 Bubba Starlings

[tykond]

Just opened another 25 packs. 1 live diamond (Baez). Thats it. No golds, a few silvers.

[2tango2]

It can be streaky for sure. Opened 50 a day or so ago and got 1HD I think...Johnny Allen maybe? It wasn't memorable obviously lol

Did my usual pre-check of team before I headed off to work this morning and found I had won a Tourney Pack overnight. Pulled a 100 Perfect Nolan Arenado. Just never know.

Now if you get on Discord and look at the fire-pull channel, you will see some crazy pack ripping. There is a group of guys (all awesome folk btw) who have some insane streaks of good luck pulling HD's like they are going out of style. We are talking hundreds of packs at a time. They will end up auctioning the good cards off usually below L7 in order to get more PP quickly and then they re-invest their earnings into more packs. The select group of people are who you can thank for not posting 100 Live Trout's for 200K PP. They are pretty much the heart and soul of the AH.