Fun with OOTP

[BradG223]

A question before I start: does anybody know good ways to display visualize percentiles? Here I am using shades of green and red to distinguish between the 95th, median, 5th percentile of OPS, but I feel like what I got know could be much better. I also want work on adding tick-lines to better show where players are in there career.



The guy on this chart is Miguel Hernandez. The black line shows Miguel Hernandez's rolling OPS over his previous 600 plate appearances. This means where the line begins show Hernandez's OPS in career PA's 1-600.
Where the line ends is his OPS from career PA's ~6800-7400. I know a player isn't defined by his OPS, but I think it may be the best simple way of conveying a batters performance.

Coming out of Venezuela, Miguel wasn't highly touted by most scouts, but he managed a deal with the Boston organization. After 3 years in the international complex, he worked himself up to be the 97th overall prospect.

His first four years as a professional he was serviceable at the plate, but nothing remarkable. He was not improving, and if anything he was regressing. His age 25 season he began showing promise, and his age 26 season saw blossom into a MVP. I wouldn't say this is a flash in a pan season, but he would not match this performance in the immediate future.

Mr. Hernandez had quite a few sharp rises and drops in OPS throughout his career. Anybody watching him in his age 31 season would suspect that he was on the decline.

However, at age 32 he shot back up and had arguably his best season to that point. He than improved on that the following season at age 33. And than he did it again. At age 34, he posted career highs OPS and HR on route to his second MVP award. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if some elicit substances were involved with his late career resurgence.

Following his second MVP campaign, the then 35 year old tore his meniscus in April, and lost the season to it. A comeback the following year proved futile. He was relegated to the minor league, never to return to the ABL.

[BradG223]

Here are OPS Leaders over varying plate appearance window sizes.

The first line in the chart shows us that during at some point during a game on July 10, 2055, Beau Mo (love these rhyming names) had a perfect OPS over his 10 prior plate appearances. Included are the stats indicating he had 4 HR's, and 6 BB (walks and hit by pitch), as well as the team he played for (Portland).

Looking at Beau Mo's numbers indicates either the shortcoming of OPS as a stat or my shortcomings for calculating OPS. A different player had a similar stat line to Beau, with one more double and one less walk. Obviously a little more impressive, but due to the nature of the stat, this player had an OPS of 4.16.

Discovered some cool things with this. Ian Shrader (50) made this list without a high number of walks relative to plate appearances. Kevin Mitchell is on here for two different windows without overlap (100 & 150).

Coolest of all: two distinct players are on this list Donovan Newton, and Andrew Willingham, played for the same team! In fact, there is an overlap between their windows. As Newton was reaching the peak of his OPS window, Willingham began his 2000 and 4000 windows. The duo combined for five MVP's during there 8 years as starters on Denver.

I won't say their tenure was squandered by Denver's management, but I have the feeling they could have won more than one championship. Still, they reached the pinnacle of the American Baseball League in 2126.

In 2130, a 31-year-old Willingham lost the season to a torn ACL five games deep into the campaign. A 34-year-old Newton had regressed to the point that he could no longer be counted on in the starting lineup, starting only 3 games.

The duo disbanded that following offseason when Newton announced his retirement. Willingham, on the other hand, entered free agency and joined Miami, where he enjoyed success in his post-Denver career.

The final table shows Denver's starters from 2119-2129.

[Sizeman21]

I'm really enjoying this series. Something about it keeps me coming back to read more. Keep it up!

[BradG223]

In real-life MLB, Paul Schreiber once had a 22-year wait in between two games pitched.

In the fictional ABL, the record for time-gaps in appearances are less extreme but no less cruel. The record in my league belongs to Cesar Rosario, with thirteen years, and thirteen 1-year contracts signed in between.

From what I can tell, many of the players on this list were middling AAA-level relievers who were lucky enough to be called up twice. On the other hand, Greg Morton was a first-round draft pick with high expectations. He was ranked as high as the #43 prospect in the ABL. Scouts had him pinned as a starter, but he could never really cut it.

After a few seasons of subpar relief, most pro teams gave up on Greg. He was granted a home in Las Vegas's minor league system for nearly ten years before he made his return to the promised land. 10 years waiting made no difference, Greg was still a subpar reliever.

[BradG223]

No-hitters occur less frequently in the ABL than in real life, only 85 times total after 120 seasons. I wanted to see if any of these no-hitters occurred in a pitcher's first career start.

Lucky enough, there was such a case. In his first career game, Laurenco Caires threw a no-hitter for the Seattle Marauders vs the Portland Mayhem. Unfortunately, the explosive start did not result in much of a career for Mr. Caires. Yes, he was on a championship-winning team, but he did not appear in the playoffs. He totaled only 8 career games in the ABL.

This dude could fit into my last post, at one point waiting five years between ABL appearances. When Laurenco made his return to the ABL he managed three really good starts, but his shoulder started flaring up and it sidelined him for the season. The following year he got shelled while playing a couple of games in AA ball and retired shortly after.

[BradG223]

Who here remembers when Daniel Nava hit a grand slam in his first career plate appearance? Let's see who managed this feat in the ABL.

Three players led off their ABL careers with a 4-run dingdong. All three of them combined for 81 career games started, so not much excitement to be found beyond their first plate appearance.

I only have two notes about these three occurrences. Mike Thomason's grand slam is the only one here that came as a pinch-hit opportunity. His team was getting crushed in the ninth inning and lost the game, but hey he still has a sweet story to tell. Cory Sloan's grand slam came on his very first pitch.

[hayesb26]

This is a great thread - loving seeing all these pieces and stories. Do you play this league any or just sim and dig?

[BradG223]

You could call this the most frivolous stat of the thread, and you would be correct.

On May 12, 2113, something magical happened. Among others, Danny Gamez, Danny Garcia, Danny Medrano, Danny Castellanos, Danny Martinez, and Danny Mendez all got the start in one single game.

The Danny Bonanza is the greatest gathering of players sharing a single first name (6) in ABL history. It was short-lived, as Portland's starting pitcher Danny Gamez would only last a single out.

Displayed are the times where five or more starters from both teams in a game shared the same name. FYI I cut out some duplicates names because Denver had a lot of 5-Danny games in 2113.

[BradG223]

Originally Posted by hayesb26

This is a great thread - loving seeing all these pieces and stories. Do you play this league any or just sim and dig?

Thanks!

Nope, I haven't played this league, sim and dig. I might give it a shot now because I don't have a desire to accrue more history from bulk-simulation. My roll has been to observe in almost all of my past leagues in OOTP.

[BradG223]

Here are the ABL players with the most walkoffs. Includes both playoffs and regular season. I cut the list off below 15.

The record belongs to Danny Camacho who had 21. Danny certainly had a respectable career, he is currently 83rd overall in batter WAR, much of which coming with the Dallas Sharks.

His first walk-off came as a 25 year-old in 2041. It might not have been an "ultimate" grand slam, but it was still a remarkable one for Mr. Camacho.

[BradG223]

On August 15, 2062, the Atlanta Falcons were 2 games out of a playoff spot with 19 games to go. Closer Victor Ramirez allowed a walk-off that night. Two days later he allowed another. 10 days later he allowed another. Spoiler alert, they did not make the playoffs

Maybe Victor doesn't deserve the entire blame. Maybe the Falcons miss the playoffs anyway if he doesn't blow those save opportunities. One thing is certain: those walk-offs allowed are key contributors to Victor leading this list.

[jparker2112]

this is amazing...i had NO idea we could do this!!! youve given me A LOT to do while in lockdown!!! thanks!!!

[BradG223]

Just came across an interesting tweet, and wanted to look for a parallel in my league.

The longest hitting streak in the ABL belongs to Manny Rodriguez, who strung together hits in 48 consecutive games between July 13, 2102, and April 1st the following year. Certainly impressive, and I do not mean to disparage it, but was he the best batter over the course of this streak?

A quick look into the batting leaders for this timeframe suggests to me that there were other players more valuable than Rodriguez during his historical streak.

[BradG223]

I am trying to recreate Baseball Gauge's stat of championship win probability added. I think it is coming along well so far. I am still messing around with it, but for now here is what may be the single greatest play in ABL history.

In 2071, the San Francisco Claws and Chicago Aviators made everything they could out of their best-of-nine world series. Game 9 itself was a classic. Chicago recovered from a 2 run deficit in the 7th which brought the game to extra innings.

In the bottom of the 11th, Aviator's left fielder Joe Brennan concluded the season with a walk-off solo shot.

[BradG223]

Taking this concept further, here is a series win probability graph for 2057 World Series between the Dallas Sharks and Chicago Aviators.

The World Series is a best of 9 contest in the ABL. You can see that at the very start both teams have odds of about 50 percent.

Dallas won Game 1 5-3 thanks to a 2 run 12th inning home run from Ian Shrader. Dallas odds of winning the World Series jumped to about 65 percent.

Game 2 reached the 12th inning as well. This time, it was Chicago's Forest Dial who was the hero, scoring a walk-off rbi double. This evened the series at one.

Game 3 was a back and forth affair, but Chicago prevailed 9-7, taking a 2-1 series lead.

Games 4 and 5 had much less doubt than the first three. Chicago knocked Dallas around, and took a commanding 4-1 series lead. Dallas's series win chance was down to about 10%. Needing 4 straight wins, they would need to dig deep.

Games 6 and 7 Dallas got the wins they needed. These games were uneventful out of context, but let me assure you they were excruciating for fans of the club.

Game 8 saw the series head back to Chicago. A pitchers duel saw the game at 2-1 Chicago heading into the ninth inning. Dallas would need to pull off a miracle within a miracle. Down to their final pitch, Dallas second baseman Kinya Igawa hit a grand slam to put his team up 5-2.

If I were a fan at this point in time, I would probably consider Chicago dead men walking. Game 9 would prove me correct. Dallas trounced Chicago, and concluded one of the most tremendous comebacks in league history.

[littleten]

This thread is a fantastic read!!!!

[BradG223]

Here is a fun set of occurrences from ABL's past.

Eight times in league history a batter and pitcher sharing the same date of birth matched up on their birthday.

[dward1]

this is really cool. makes me wish I had an almanac for the 33 years so far...but the space is just so large...maybe I should buy some storage

[dynaboyj]

A request: What pair of players hit the most back-to-back home runs?

[stevem810]

Originally Posted by BradG223

Same table as in the last post, however I stopped considering years. This means the rolling batters faced window can show streaks starting in one year, and ending in a different year.

If you weren't convinced of Mr. Pruitt's dominance, take a glance and mayhaps be persuaded.

Still trying to digest his propensity to induce the K year after year. Is there a way to reproduce his ratings, or, describe how he was built?