Insane unreal contracts

[ThePretender]

I'd be surprised if Harper doesn't get 300-400M. So I'd say the opposite, the contract is quite realistic.

[LegalEagle80]

The frustrating thing is that I've simmed the 2018 season 3 separate times now, and each time (despite his demand), Harper signs with a small-market team for between $16 and $17 million per year.

I even offered $20 million for the same years and he refused me, but then a couple days later signs an even smaller deal. I guess Scott Boras doesn't exist in the OOTP universe.

[NoOne]

collusion. simple as that.

you have a cartel of owners that have silently agreed to freeze payrolls, or slow them down significantly, over the last 4-5 years.

the average mlb player salary has remained, relatively speaking, constant for that same period of time - amazing isn't it? must be a coincidence. those greedy %$#@s wouldn't break the law in order to increase profits for themselves, would they? monkeys at the top are evil. it's not genetic, it's a product of too much power corrupting just about anyone who has it.

if things had remained on their current trend, 40M wouldn't be unreasonable without the pay freeze for 5 years.

in ootp you simply have to control money supply and may adjust a few settings, if needed, and you will have a ~30M max contract at any time... or a 20M or a 400k. whatever you want to have.

don't allow teams to average ~190-200M if you don't want 30-40M contracts possible. if the estimte says an average of ~125M for payroll but it also shows ~50M in profit.. that really means closer to 175m average payroll. compare that to the MLB's 125-130M average over the last few years and you see why you have elevated max contracts.

a team won't spend more than a specific % of payroll on one player. it's all built into how it functions. that % may sway a bit based on sliders or whatever might be rational to influence it and cause some variety etc. but, mostly the same % give or take either way.

if you don't cap Max Cash on Hand, you'll get sky-rocketting extensions, while FA contracts will be decidedly smaller -- it has to do with what you can spend that money on and what you cannot -- FA being part of the "not". i.e. you always let them hit FA or you pay more - the exact opposite of the real world.

relative to any one person's perceptions:
"elevated stats" "elevated costs" elevated <fill in the blank> can all be influenced by settings to be what you want.

i'm avoiding the word "realistic" because that's rarely the case even though that word is thrown around with abandon all throughout the forums. it doesn't matter what a person thinks is real or not... simply change hte settings to get what you want. if you feel that they are "real" without any knowledge of baseline, typical deviation, or distribution, that's great, but probably nowhere near accurate.

[Marsupilami]

Originally Posted by NoOne

collusion. simple as that.

you have a cartel of owners that have silently agreed to freeze payrolls, or slow them down significantly, over the last 4-5 years.

the average mlb player salary has remained, relatively speaking, constant for that same period of time - amazing isn't it? .

do you have proof for any of that?

because if i go by this https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ague-baseball/

i say u are wrong.


mlb avg in
2004 was 2.31Million
2010 was 3 Million
2015 was 3.84 Million
2016 was 4.38 Million
2017 was 4.47 Million

so, the avg mlb salary almost doubled from 2004 to 2017

[Marsupilami]

Originally Posted by Scott Gustafson

Is anyone else bothered by the insane contracts demands by free agents?

This is just Bryce Harper... I would NEVER pay this much for ANY player. 20-25 mil per year ok maybe but only because he is that good. But $40 million per year? That's crazy talk...Kershaw is the same.

simply because YOU would never offer 30+M doesnt make it unrealistic. you might not like it, but wait until Kershaw (if he opts out), Harper and Machado get new deals in a few months.
just recently Altuve got an extension with 30+M AAV

[malichai11]

Do you really think it's collusion as opposed to smarter and smarter front offices realizing that free agency is a fool's game?

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Marsupilami

do you have proof for any of that?

because if i go by this https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ague-baseball/

i say u are wrong.


mlb avg in
2004 was 2.31Million
2010 was 3 Million
2015 was 3.84 Million
2016 was 4.38 Million
2017 was 4.47 Million

so, the avg mlb salary almost doubled from 2004 to 2017

Maybe, but i say you are using bogus info and cherry picking a time range that isn't even congruent with my original statement (2 logically fallacious arguments) i only spoke of the last "5" years (should have said 4, but 2018 is likely more of the same too)

http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5464230.pdf

go to page 3. i'll take an original source document produced by the mlbpa over whatever you linked above all day and twice on sunday.

page 3 info from an orginal source document produced by the MLBPA and not some 3rd party source relying on news reports and conjecture that may or may not be accurate.

Using more accurate numbers from a proper source, 2014-2017 it went from 3.8M to 4.1M. (2018 being year 5 -- 4 or 5, let's not split hairs over meaningless nonsense - i'm not writing formally here)

this combined with how a league-wide strategy that is obviously in effect the last few FA periods should make it obvious what is occuring. this isn't new. this isn't unusual. this is what the people at the top have done forever. they use their leverage and power to get what they want when they want it at the price they want to pay. (ie our salries in general, not just mlb players).

to deny is to deny nearly all of history -- people at teh top are morally corrupt and incredibly self-centered-- no different than any other human if they switched places.. it's not inherent in just 'them', it's inherent in all humans to be corrupted by power (a spectrum, but nonetheless even the 'good' ones, realtively speaking, are not 'good'. analogous to a person that murders one person isn't as bad as a serial killer, lol)

that website you link likely relies on info that is reported as opposed to actual details of the contracts which are private matter - but accessible by the MLBPA and MLB. an original source document form them is almost 100% certainly better info that that link you gave above.

these are private companies that do not need to share any financial documents with the public and they do not. that website never had exact contract info to begin with.. it's mostly a guess.

btw, it is a point for my argument that payroll doubled in the previous decade and then stagnated for 4-5 years. how quickly it's risen since FA began, even... and now it's stagnated for no reason. (think i mentioned in original reply too)

[AirmenSmith]

It's the owners money so they should do what they want with it. If they don't want salary increases then that is up to them.

Also if the owners are corrupt so is the players union.

[Northernsky]

Originally Posted by Bears5122

It's not unrealistic. I think the going rate for a win is $10 million and he's averaged well over 4 WAR per season since he came into the league. By some estimation he's just entering his prime.

So I wanted to thank everyone for this chat... I've learned that most of the players will let you talk them down if you do it carefully.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by NoOne

collusion. simple as that.

you have a cartel of owners that have silently agreed to freeze payrolls, or slow them down significantly, over the last 4-5 years.

Possibly. But it strikes me as unlikely, since the last time the owners tried that in the late 1980s they got caught and had to pay a hefty financial price (at least $260 million, if I recall correctly). Plus in every CBA since there is a provision for triple damages should MLB owners ever get caught doing something like that again.

I suspect a significant cause is the luxury tax. It has gotten progressively more harsh over the years in terms of penalties, with the current version, for the first time, potentially having an impact on the position of a club's highest draft pick. Also, if you look at the payroll threshold for the luxury tax, it has fallen well behind the industry's growth rate in revenue. Consider the following:

From 2003 through 2011 the luxury tax threshold basically kept pace with the growth in average club revenue. But after 2011, the luxury tax threshold fell significantly behind revenue growth, and will not keep pace through the years covered under the current CBA. From 2003 to 2011, the luxury tax threshold grew from $117 million to $178 million. That's an increase of $61 million in dollar terms, and 1.52 times larger than that of 2003. But the 2018 luxury tax threshold is only $19 million higher than the 2011 figure, or just 1.11 times larger. By the last year of the CBA, 2021, the luxury tax threshold will be only $32 million above its 2011 value, or 1.18 times larger.

That will be a significant drag on the largest spenders. And it's those big spenders which drive those highest tier salaries.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by NoOne

Using more accurate numbers from a proper source, 2014-2017 it went from 3.8M to 4.1M. (2018 being year 5 -- 4 or 5, let's not split hairs over meaningless nonsense - i'm not writing formally here)

Don't focus on the dollar amounts, focus on the percentage rate of increase.

Originally Posted by NoOne

this is what the people at the top have done forever. they use their leverage and power to get what they want when they want it at the price they want to pay. (ie our salries in general, not just mlb players).

Do you propose any solutions to this?

Originally Posted by NoOne

to deny is to deny nearly all of history -- people at teh top are morally corrupt and incredibly self-centered-- no different than any other human if they switched places.

That's one explanation. Another is that money accumulates money. Or, more generally, having more makes it much easier to acquire more. See: Pareto Principle. It holds true not just for economics, but across nature as well. It appears to be a fundamental principle as to how things in this universe operate.

Originally Posted by NoOne

btw, it is a point for my argument that payroll doubled in the previous decade and then stagnated for 4-5 years. how quickly it's risen since FA began, even... and now it's stagnated for no reason. (think i mentioned in original reply too)

Incorrect. Payrolls have not stagnated. What is happening is that payroll growth is lagging behind revenue growth. The MLBPA's own figures on average salary make it clear salaries are still increasing year-over-year.

(The MLBPA used to publish the average player salary by club. It started doing this in the early 1980s, and did so for many years. But it appears to have ceased making this data public after 2011. At least, I can't find it in my internet searches.)

[itsmb8]

If I were a real MLB GM I would certainly pay him $40M per year. He's just entering his prime and is a generational talent. Its practically worth it just to have him on your team, regardless if youre winning or not.

[Bears5122]

I don't think there is collusion. Just smarter GMs who realize giving a 7-year deal to a 32-year old pitcher on the decline is not smart.

I think the bigger issue is no salary floor exists. Letting organizations field major league teams with $65 million is an insult to fans. There should at least be a floor of $80-$90 million that teams must meet like in the NBA.

[Bears5122]

And if players want bigger deals, they need to push to become free agents at a younger age in the CBA. Arrieta becomes a free agent at the point where he starts declining is kind of rough. If he hits free agency a couple years earlier he's probably got a $200 million deal.

[malichai11]

Originally Posted by Bears5122

I think the bigger issue is no salary floor exists. Letting organizations field major league teams with $65 million is an insult to fans. There should at least be a floor of $80-$90 million that teams must meet like in the NBA.

I think the owners would be more than happy to negotiate a salary floor. You know what they'll ask for in return? A salary cap.

[Bears5122]

Originally Posted by malichai11

I think the owners would be more than happy to negotiate a salary floor. You know what they'll ask for in return? A salary cap.

The new rules more or less created a cap already.

[AirmenSmith]

Originally Posted by Bears5122

I don't think there is collusion. Just smarter GMs who realize giving a 7-year deal to a 32-year old pitcher on the decline is not smart.

I think the bigger issue is no salary floor exists. Letting organizations field major league teams with $65 million is an insult to fans. There should at least be a floor of $80-$90 million that teams must meet like in the NBA.

I agree with you on all points as well.

Only a union would think there is collusion when a lot more people see the market getting to crazy. If I owned a company I would want to do what I could to save money and make more.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Bears5122

I think the bigger issue is no salary floor exists. Letting organizations field major league teams with $65 million is an insult to fans. There should at least be a floor of $80-$90 million that teams must meet like in the NBA.

The reason there isn't a hard salary floor is because it opens the door to a hard salary cap. And the players don't want a hard salary cap. The 'soft cap' of the luxury tax is the closest to a cap they'll allow. (And given how little the luxury tax payroll threshold grows under the current CBA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the PA pushing hard for significant increased in the threshold for the next CBA. But they're stuck with the current system through 2021.)

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by NoOne

Maybe, but i say you are using bogus info and cherry picking a time range that isn't even congruent with my original statement (2 logically fallacious arguments) i only spoke of the last "5" years (should have said 4, but 2018 is likely more of the same too)

http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5464230.pdf

go to page 3. i'll take an original source document produced by the mlbpa over whatever you linked above all day and twice on sunday.

page 3 info from an orginal source document produced by the MLBPA and not some 3rd party source relying on news reports and conjecture that may or may not be accurate.

Using more accurate numbers from a proper source, 2014-2017 it went from 3.8M to 4.1M. (2018 being year 5 -- 4 or 5, let's not split hairs over meaningless nonsense - i'm not writing formally here)

this combined with how a league-wide strategy that is obviously in effect the last few FA periods should make it obvious what is occuring. this isn't new. this isn't unusual. this is what the people at the top have done forever. they use their leverage and power to get what they want when they want it at the price they want to pay. (ie our salries in general, not just mlb players).

to deny is to deny nearly all of history -- people at teh top are morally corrupt and incredibly self-centered-- no different than any other human if they switched places.. it's not inherent in just 'them', it's inherent in all humans to be corrupted by power (a spectrum, but nonetheless even the 'good' ones, realtively speaking, are not 'good'. analogous to a person that murders one person isn't as bad as a serial killer, lol)

that website you link likely relies on info that is reported as opposed to actual details of the contracts which are private matter - but accessible by the MLBPA and MLB. an original source document form them is almost 100% certainly better info that that link you gave above.

these are private companies that do not need to share any financial documents with the public and they do not. that website never had exact contract info to begin with.. it's mostly a guess.

btw, it is a point for my argument that payroll doubled in the previous decade and then stagnated for 4-5 years. how quickly it's risen since FA began, even... and now it's stagnated for no reason. (think i mentioned in original reply too)

you think the best source for accurate information is from the one organization with the most incentive to show that player salaries are low?

As mentioned above the biggest reason is that more front offices are finally wising up to the fact that paying players for what they did in the past is stupid. a 30 year old just isn't going to give you 6 years like his previous 6. Plus teams are now very polarized into contend vs rebuild leading to less competition for top players. it does no good to add one star to go from 70 to 75 wins.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by dkgo

As mentioned above the biggest reason is that more front offices are finally wising up to the fact that paying players for what they did in the past is stupid. a 30 year old just isn't going to give you 6 years like his previous 6.

This. I call it the “Albert Pujols Principle”.