Hosmer

[Jeffy25]

Originally Posted by TheMaus2

WAR is the value of a player relative to how the rest of the league performed that year, not just based off of a proverbial reading of tea leaves.
But WAR shouldn't be the one all, end all stat, IMO

WAR is a baseline.

Every team starts off with 48 wins.

The Astros won 101 games (101-61), and their pyth record was 101-61

Astros
48 win base line
39.8 rWAR for position players
13.4 rWAR for pitchers

48+39.8+13.4=101.2

The Astros should be expected to win 101.2 games. They won 101, and scored a run differential of a 101 win team.

It isn't always this perfect, but it translates remarkably well. It translates better to pyth records (run differential) because some teams do better than others in 1 run games in some seasons. But that's fairly random.

WAR is useful. Teams likely have their own in house data, but they have internal valuations on players based on sabrmetric information. Every team does.

It's why guys like Chris Carter get non-tendered and nobody gives them squat. Matt Kemp is constantly dumped despite nice traditional offensive numbers, (Jay Bruce, Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, etc, etc).


WAR isn't perfect. I question it's positional adjustment numbers. I question the value it creates for defense, and the defensive metrics it uses. But it's fantastic for snap shot evaluations, and you can bet if someone has a super low WAR, and is being compared to a player with a very high WAR, the high WAR player is very likely, and almost assuredly going to have been better (over that time frame).

[Airdrop01]

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Well WAR does a remarkable job of translating actual team wins (or at least run differential), so I don't know why it would be some enemy.

Or not. And this is a pretty lousy article too. But it's quick and easy to find.

It's a tool. You know what is a better tool? Scouting reports by baseball people. Those terrifying things that are the basis on which pretty much every major leaguer began their long, against all odds journey to the bigs and on which immeasurable multitudes began their journey to play as long as someone would pay them to do so.

Taint no war in Valencia, VZ or for that matter at East Carteret HS.

But, again, I recognize that the OOTP-verse is the wrong place for me to win that argument.

https://kingsofkauffman.com/2015/11/...-world-series/

[Jeffy25]

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

Or not. And this is a pretty lousy article too. But it's quick and easy to find.

It's a tool. You know what is a better tool? Scouting reports by baseball people. But, again, I recognize that the OOTP-verse is the wrong place for me to win that argument.

https://kingsofkauffman.com/2015/11/...-world-series/

What makes you believe that scouting is an empirically better tool? Every single MLB organization believes both are necessary and useful.

[Jeffy25]

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

Or not. And this is a pretty lousy article too. But it's quick and easy to find.

It's a tool. You know what is a better tool? Scouting reports by baseball people. Those terrifying things that are the basis on which pretty much every major leaguer began their long, against all odds journey to the bigs.

Taint no war in Valencia, VZ or for that matter at East Carteret HS.

But, again, I recognize that the OOTP-verse is the wrong place for me to win that argument.

https://kingsofkauffman.com/2015/11/...-world-series/

Also, LOL at that article

The 2015 Royals

48.0 baseline
25.6 position player WAR
16.5 pitcher WAR

90.1 pyth wins.

Run differential of 90-72
95 wins due to 23-17 one run game record


And every single sabrmetric believing individual knows that October is a lottery of the hottest team in October wins the post-season.

All that article does is continue the idea that statistics are invalid while presenting no evidence to actual say how or why.

All stats require context, and that author doesn't understand that run differential matters to pyth record.

[Airdrop01]

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

What makes you believe that scouting is an empirically better tool? Every single MLB organization believes both are necessary and useful.

Because I’ve done the former. And like I say, without it, there are not major leaguers... or minor leaguers.....WAR and the other sabremetric stats are an attempt to add to the picture. It is my belief that it has clouded the picture for a lot of teams.

Again, telling me that teams use it is like arguing that the sun is hot. I agree they use it. I stipulate that they like it.

I think it hurts them more often than it helps. Agents love it though. Teams love it too, for the same reason. I’ll give you that. Nothing makes life easier than an arbitrator who loves WAR and sabremetric stuff. If you think that’s not the case, you don’t understand the business. For most players, WAR tells you nothing useful.

You can’t build a team on it unless you have infinite money. You have no way to distinguish the majority of players with WAR, etc.

Besides, the obvious thing is: You don’t get to argue about this if there isn’t something before it. It’s kind of fun to see people pretend that this isn’t the case.

But I’ll stop now.

[Jeffy25]

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

Because I’ve done the former. And like I say, without it, there are not major leaguers.

Besides, the obvious thing is: You don’t get to argue about this if there isn’t something before it. It’s kind of fun to see people pretend that this isn’t the case.

But I’ll stop now.

You are arguing against an invisible boogey-man.

Nobody, literally ever, has said that scouting is useless. You HAVE to have it.

But it also doesn't replace the need for statistical valuation.

If it can be viewed (a human action), then it can be measured. If it can be measured, it can be objectively analyzed.

This is true to all forms of life and business.

You aren't going to run a billion dollar business and not fully understand that statistical values the game has at it's disposal. You have to look for the efficiencies.

[Airdrop01]

Hey, I do kind of hope the Birds sign Hos if he isn’t staying in KC. I think he’d be a stud there in that park, with those fans and that team right now. With their TV money, they can afford it too.

[Jeffy25]

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

Hey, I do kind of hope the Birds sign Hos if he isn’t staying in KC. I think he’d be a stud there in that park, with those fans and that team right now. With their TV money, they can afford it too.

I don't want him. He isn't nearly enough of an upgrade over what we already have at the corners and at first (Gyroko, Carpenter, and Jose Martinez).

I like Hosmer. He's a super good guy, cares, fairly young. But he's a ground ball hitter at a corner position, and we have fairly good players there already.