Avoiding statistical drift

[NoOne]

do it each year, defintely is possible.

about differnt reply above:

.239-240 isn't too low to be within typical range of a leage average for .257 ... if you've had a bunch of lower-quality drafts and you don't auto-calc the stats will dip. if you run it out ~50 years and it never jumps above .257 again, you know you can at least increase the hits modifier a bit. it should sway ~.010 to ~.015 around an average even when you keep the same LTM (around the correct average only if assuming they are callibrated correctly from long-term results, otherwise autocalc is easier, lol).

the same results in RL may not match up as far as how they are accumulated in teh game, but they should be fairly close. a little more give and take is needed. i.e. if a certain slash tends to be a bit higher or lower resulting ERA. it models thigns well, but nothing is perfect especially a video game.

[SI52]

I know this is an old topic, but quick related q:

If I change the year on Opening Day to, say, 2015, and don't click "Auto-Calc," is that going to actually do anything? Or will everything revert back to the normal fluctuation/drift that was originally happening?

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by SI52

I know this is an old topic, but quick related q:

If I change the year on Opening Day to, say, 2015, and don't click "Auto-Calc," is that going to actually do anything? Or will everything revert back to the normal fluctuation/drift that was originally happening?

Day before Opening Day. Doing it after probably won't do much, but I've never tried it. The Auto-Calc button disappears on Opening Day because that's the end of the Pre-Season and the start of the Season. I only input the year every year the day before Opening Day and it does the trick very well. Remember I'm doing random debut historical while treedom was doing a fictional and I'm not sure if that makes a difference or not. I've gotten very good results using this technique though. Make sure to also synchronize your strategy and AI settings for 2015 as well and lock them in by unchecking the box that says "Automatically adjust league strategy when advancing to the next season" if you want relievers, pinch hitters, shifts etc to behave as they do in the modern game.

[Padreman]

So if any modifiers are changed you have to auto calculate Every time?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Padreman

So if any modifiers are changed you have to auto calculate Every time?

No you never have to autocalc. Several times in hundreds of seasons I decided to manually change the few modifiers that "needed" to be changed because my stat output was so close. I don't consider plus minus 5% worth modifying in most cases. OTOH there are some times when certain modifiers are very high or low vs the output that autocalc doesn't work properly and you get the toilet seat effect.😀

Balks wild pitches and passed balls often show wild fluctuations from year to year so in that case take 50% of the change. For example WP mod was 1.2, autocalc says 0.4 for the next season, that will likely be too low so 50% of the difference gives a modifier of 0.8. If this seems like too much work set the modifier to 1. Right or wrong you'll have an easy time seeing the actual difference from the league totals after the season.


FWIW