GM_CheatSheets Montreal Expos Rebuild

[GM_CheatSheets]

Of course July starts with another opportunity to add some talent to my farm system -- the international amateur free agent signing period.

Using my handy spreadsheet, below are the top 25 players available in this signing period:



My preference is to stay within the $3 million cap for this year as I don't have the funds to go far beyond this limit.

My initial offers are to SP Hernandez ($2.7 million), SP Corchado ($550,000), and CF Giron ($280,000).

Corchado quickly signed for $550,000. Corchado projects as a borderline starter because only two of his four pitches projects to be above average. I hope that with his strong intangibles that at least three of these pitches will develop to be above average and he can become a quality starting pitcher prospect.

Hernandez and Giron demanded more money. This pushed Hernandez off my target list as he would now push me over the cap. I then made offers to SP Salazar ($1.7 million) and SP Ramirez ($2 million).

Giron, the top hitter on my board was the next to sign at $380,000. With both Salazar and Ramirez continuing to increase their demands, I wanted to make a play to get one of them before it took me over the cap. I have found in the past that sometimes when I am bidding on two players that stopping my pursuit of one of the players can lead to the other signing with me.

Despite Salazar's poor intangibles rating, he was ultimately demanding a little less than Ramirez so I pulled the offer from Ramirez. Coincidence or not, Salazar did indeed sign with me the next day for $2.12 million. This signing put me at 99% of the cap and ended my activity in this period.

Below is a recap of the three players I was able to add. Though I am not overly excited about any of the three players, I do feel that I made out well, walking away with three of the top six players on my board while staying within the cap.



Next, I'll recap the Expos' month of July...

[GM_CheatSheets]

July got off to a terrible start and didn't get much better as the month progressed.

The Expos dropped the final two games of the series against the Nationals and got swept by the Cubs. Next I won 1 of 3 against the Reds.

After the all-star break The Expos won 3 of 4 against the Phillies as Drury won another player of the week award. Next, we won 1 of 3 against San Diego and 1 of 3 against Arizona.

With the month seemingly spiraling out of control, I decided to demote Magnifico and Jackson to AAA and promote Godfrey and Adams. This move actually moved Tate into the rotation and Adams to the bullpen. I also put Xu on the DL with an expected absence of two weeks and promoted 1B Rincon.

I also made my first trade since the beginning of the season sending insignificant minor league pieces to the White Sox for RP (with potential to start) Paddock and two young minor league starting pitchers. Paddock, 27, is above average in the three main pitching categories and has a solid four pitch mix. SP Jim Wilson, 19, has above average potential for four pitches and all of the three main pitching categories. SP Bob Caballero, 22, fits the same mold and is a bit more developed than Wilson, but not fully developed like Paddock.

To make room for Paddock, I placed Reid-Foley on the DL.

Next the Expos won 1 of 3 against the Cardinals. They then closed the month winning 1 of 3 versus Tampa Bay. This closed the month out with an abysmal 8-16 record.

The trade was a big positive, but unfortunately it was the only one I was able to swing as not many teams were biting on any of my players. Perhaps it will take another year to build up the value for some of my players as many of them have limited MLB success or track records.



Ceciliani and Drury put up a great month of July. Drury led the team with 7 HR, 18 RBI, and tied for first with 16 R. Massey also had 16 R. He and Dillard both performed above average for the month. Also worth noting, 1B Santiago Rincon was other-worldly, though in only 22 PA, with 4 HR and a 271 wRC+.



Kaprielian and Reid-Foley put up outstanding months in the rotation with Kaprielian 41.1 IP pitching more than twice as many innings as Reid-Foley. Tate struggled quite significantly after rating as my top pitcher last month.

Next up is the August recap. We will see once again if the Expos can rebound after another poor month...

[GM_CheatSheets]

August started with the Expos sweeping the Red Sox in three games and then getting swept by the Dodgers in another three game set. At this point, I demoted SP Godfrey to AAA so I could activate SP Reid-Foley. I also sent 1B Xu to AAA on a rehab assignment.

After sweeping Miami in a three game set, I was informed that CF Lewis would be out 3-4 weeks with an injury. I called up LF Vizcaino to replace Lewis and placed 2B Cortes on waivers so I could activate 1B Xu. However, I made sure that the hot hitting Rincon would continue to start at 1B in hopes of keeping the team's hot streak alive.

Next the Expos won 1 of 4 against Pittsburgh, 2 of 3 versus the Mets, 1 of 3 versus Cleveland, 2 of 3 against Cincinnati. The last two series of the month were three game sweeps: the Giants swept the Expos in the first set and the Expos swept the Braves in the second. The month ended with placing CF Lewis on a rehab assignment in AAA.



August proved to be a boon for Expos hitters. Rincon, Enright, Dillard, and Tucker each had outstanding months while Massey and Drury were above average again.

Drury led the team with 8 HR, Rincon had 29 RBI, and Enright and Dillard each had 19 R.



In the rotation, Godfrey impressed in only 16 IP and Reid-Foley continued to pitch well, this time for the entirety of the month. Kaprielian posted solid ratios and peripherals but with poor luck as he had only one win and three losses. Jurado, despite his great control is really testing my patience as he continues to get battered by major league hitters.

Mosqueda had the most impressive month of my relief pitchers. In 16.1 IP he had a 0.00 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 11 K/9.

Next up is a recap of September/October. I'm hopeful that the Expos can end the season on a good note, ideally with some players increasing their trade value heading into the offseason...

[GM_CheatSheets]

September started with a flurry of promotions. After a successful stint at AAA as a SP, Magnifico was brought back to the majors, but as a reliever. Other call-ups included RP Crowe, C Trees, 3B Mendoza, SS Justus, SS Mountcastle, CF Plummer, and RF Medina. None of these players project for significant playing time or impact.

To open the month, the Expos split a two game series with Oakland and won only 1 of 4 against Arizona. After the Arizona series, Ceciliani received a 5 week injury diagnosis and I activated CF Lewis.

Next, the Expos won 1 of 4 against San Diego, 1 of 3 against St. Louis, 1 of 4 against the Cubs, and lost a rescheduled game against the A's. At this point, I lost CF Lewis to the DL again, this time with a 5-6 week injury.

The Expos proceeded to win 2 of 3 versus the Nationals, 1 of 3 against the Phillies, 2 of 4 against the Mets, and 2 of 3 versus the Pirates.

This put my September record at 12-19.



1B Rincon continued his hot streak and SS Massey continued his great season. Both were my top hitters in September. Massey led the team with 18 R while Rincon led the way with 8 HR and 22 RBI in the month.

While 2B Drury struggled notably in September, the rest of his season was strong enough that I would be surprised if he accepts the qualifying offer I plan to extend to him.



Of my starting pitchers, Paddack put up the best September, and I hope this is a preview of what I can expect from him next year. As the key piece in my only trade deadline deal, he looks to be a solid pickup.

Otherwise, there were a few strong bullpen performers, but not much else to write home about as it was a disappointing month overall.

Next up is a recap of the Expos' 2023 season...

[GM_CheatSheets]

Overall, the first year of the Expos re-launched expansion franchise was a disappointment. However, there are several positives beneath the on-field outcome.

The Expos' overall record of 69-93 (.426) was eight games below their Pythagorean record of 77-85, which happened to match the preseason prediction. This eight game difference was the largest in the league and is likely explained by poor defense, a category in which the Expos ranked last in the league. Improving the team's defense, especially at up the middle positions should be one of my top offseason priorities.

The team played at its best near the middle of the season as 1B Rincon got off to a scorching start after his promotion. Despite the efforts of a handful of players, good performances were mostly inconsistent while there were several consistently poor performances.

Personally, I had much higher expectations as I thought the team might have a chance to finish around .500 and I have had several teams make the playoffs in the first year or two of an expansion. This team looks like it might require more time before sniffing the playoffs.

I do feel rather lucky that the injury to Montes De Oca was the only significantly long injury for the team. We will see next year if he is able to play up to the potential I saw when taking him in the first round of the expansion draft.

On a positive note, I am very happy with my first year player draft and international amateur free agent acquisitions. Additionally, it looks like I will come out on top of two of the three trades made during the season.

The offseason trade for Drury worked out about as well as I could have hoped. We will see what happens with Rivero as he should decline his option, but I don't think he played well enough to decline a qualifying offer.

While I think I have some intriguing young bullpen pieces, the rotation beyond Kaprielian is much less certain. Also, I shouldn't forget that the silver lining in a poor record is a high draft pick. I think I should have the sixth pick in next year's first year player draft.

Below is a statistical recap of my batters:



SS Massey, C Dillard, and 2B Drury were my only three hitters to put up 3+ WAR. 3B Enright and 1B Rincon also impressed and only missed joining the group above due to fewer plate appearances.

Drury led the team with 29 HR and 103 RBI while Massey led the way with 105 R. Rincon had a .326 AVG but fell short of qualifying, so Massey took that title as well with a .285 AVG.

Disappointments included CF Lewis (-0.2 WAR), C Vazquez (-0.3 WAR), SS Mountcastle (0 WAR).

Below is a statistical recap of my pitchers:



Looking at WAR totals, SP Kaprielian is the only pitcher worth talking about at 4.2. At 29 years old and entering arbitration for the first time this offseason, he is a good pitcher to build around for now.

I have with Reid-Foley and Paddack as both showed some encouraging signs. Otherwise, the rotation was pretty terrible.

The bullpen was mostly encouraging, especially when it came to strikeout rate. RP Medina, a Rule 5 draft pick finished with the highest bullpen WAR, part of which was due to his 95 IP. CL Rivero led the team with 22 SV but his ERA and WHIP weren't quite as good as his past few seasons. However his 2.94 FIP suggests this may be due more to poor luck and poor defense.

Tate may stand out as the biggest disappointment. Though several of those I moved out of the rotation should be considered for this distinction as well, they just didn't last in their role.

One final note on the season, despite poor attendance, I still managed to end with a $17 million profit. This should give me some more money to play with in the upcoming offseason.

Next, we will look at the playoff outcomes and the 2023 world champion...

[GM_CheatSheets]

The Kansas City Royals, 96-66 (.593), were crowned as the 2023 world champions after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1 in the best of seven series.

For the first time in a few years, there were no 100 win teams. With 98 wins, the Pittsburgh Pirates led the MLB. The Mets joined the Pirates as NL East representatives in the playoffs.



The Royals' top five batters by WAR:

• Cameron Gallagher, C (585 PA, 4.5 WAR)
  .272 AVG, .349 OBP, .423 SLG, 77 R, 14 HR, 78 RBI, 0 SB, 116 wRC+
  
• Danny Hayes, 1B (634 PA, 4.2 WAR)
  .277 AVG, .349 OBP, .480 SLG, 101 R, 31 HR, 105 RBI, 0 SB, 132 wRC+
  
• David Dahl, CF (619 PA, 4.0 WAR)
  .286 AVG, .320 OBP, .425 SLG, 85 R, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 25 SB, 105 wRC+
  
• Akil Baddoo, LF (668 PA, 3.9 WAR)
  .278 AVG, .341 OBP, .456 SLG, 105 R, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB, 119 wRC+
  
• Tyler Dean, 1B (591 PA, 3.4 WAR)
  .317 AVG, .379 OBP, .504 SLG, 83 R, 20 HR, 95 RBI, 0 SB, 139 wRC+

And their top five pitchers by WAR:

• Stephen Strasburg, SP (225 IP, 5.4 WAR)
  33 GS, 19 W, 6 L, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 212 K, 1.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 3.31 FIP
  
• Philip Pfeifer, SP (188.1 IP, 4.2 WAR)
  32 GS, 17 W, 7 L, 3.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 162 K, 1.3 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.44 FIP
  
• John Lamb, SP (183 IP, 3.0 WAR)
  32 GS, 11 W, 10 L, 4.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 154 K, 3.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 3.90 FIP
  
• Masahiro Tanaka, RP (104 IP, 2.4 WAR)
  49 G, 2 GS, 3 W, 0 L, 5 SV, 1.56 ERA, .88 WHIP, 75 K, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 3.02 FIP
  
• Vincent Velasquez, SP (168.1 IP, 1.7 WAR)
  32 GS, 6 W, 17 L, 4.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 142 K, 2.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 4.29 FIP

Obviously the name that hurts the most here is Tanaka. I can't say enough times that I regret trading him away just because it looked like he wouldn't fit into my rotation, which of course turned out to be maddeningly inconsistent.

This collection of players is the lowest in terms of WAR production of any of the seasons I've recapped. This also shows it's possible to win the world series without even a single superstar player. However, my team still has a long way to go to reach the WAR production of even this team.

Coming up is a look at arbitration, qualifying offers, and initial thoughts on my offseason strategy...

[GM_CheatSheets]

The first order of offseason business is to review arbitration eligible players.

I decided to offer contracts to SP Kaprielian, SP Paddack, SP Reid-Foley, RP Tate, 3B Chapman, RF Lewis, and RF Tucker.

My initial hopes are to play Lewis and Tucker in a platoon. Even if this doesn't play out, they are making combined around $4 million.

First base is another position that could be turned into a platoon. Another goal based on the roster as is, is to improve defense in CF and at SS.

I decided not to offer contracts to SP Jurado, SP De Leon, SP Jackson, SP Magnifico, SS Mountcastle.

Of the four potential free agents, I offered two (2B Drury and CL Rivero) qualifying offers, and decided to let two (LF Ervin, RP Tolleson) go.

As the days progressed and those I offered contracts to signed, I was able to make a few, mostly minor, trades. All but one featured an arb eligible player not extended a contract.

I sent SP Jurado and MiLB 1B Christiansen to St. Louis for RF Kirilloff, MiLB SS Ruiz, and MiLB CF Jackson. Kirilloff is arbitration eligible and a strong lefty bat with a two year track record of limited impact. Ruiz and Jackson both have great intangibles. Ruiz has a plus glove and average bat. Jackson is better with the bat and is closer to average defensively.

Next, I sent MiLB CF Plummer and MiLB SP Escalona to Miami for RP Meija and RP McCormick. Meija is a lefty reliever with two plus pitches and very good pitching ratings. So far he has a high ERA in the majors with a more favorable FIP. RP McCormick has the potential to be a borderline starter, but struggles with control -- much like the pitchers I took a flier on last year who didn't pan out.

A few days later, I sent SP Jackson and MiLB 1B McPherson to Cincinnati for 2B Devine and MiLB CF Qin. As a batter, Devine is plus at avoiding strikeouts and average in the other four categories. He also has plus defense at second and is above average at shortstop. Qin is one of the signings I missed on last year. He put up a mostly uninspiring season in the low minors but still has some batting potential.

My last trade before arbitration hearings and the start of free agency was with Houston. I sent SP Magnifico, MiLB 2B St. Denis, and MiLB SP Roberts to Houston for 1B/3B Franco, MiLB SS Arreola, MiLB CL Jensen, and MiLB SP Rosales. Franco is the big get here as he is a bats right and has power (31 HR in 2023). Arreola (strong bat), Jensen (future closer), and Rosales (likely relief ace) all immediately rank near the top of my minor league system. While Rosales is still starting, it is unlikely that he is able to develop an adequate third pitch to do so in the majors.

I am happy to end this section on a very positive note. Possibly more important than any of the players acquired in the above trades, I was informed that Drury and Rivero declined the qualifying offer and I should have two more picks, both in the comp round, in the upcoming first year player draft. At least this part of my plan for the previous offseason played out as I hoped.

Now that arbitration has passed, it is time to look at the available free agents and put together a more detailed plan for the remainder of the offseason...

[GM_CheatSheets]

Entering the start of the free agent signing period, I had about $30 million available to sign free agents. My first impression of the free agent class was a bit underwhelming. I identified my team needs in order of priority as CF, SS, SP, and CL.

There were two highly ranked short stops available: Francisco Lindor ($47.5 million/8 yrs/comp) and Nick Gordon ($19.22 million/9 years/comp). Though Lindor would ultimately sign for less than his demand, this was way too pricy for me. I thought long and hard about Nick Gordon as I could offer him an opt out after year two or three (essentially delaying the comp pick for a few years as my first pick will be protected). However, I wasn't able to convince myself that this was the best option before he signed elsewhere.

After Gordon, though, the options were scarce. There were three players with some minor league success but no major league track record asking for around $7 million per year for around 5 years. I made an offer to one of these players before ultimately pulling it back, with the logic that this was way too much (and more so too long) to commit to an unproven player.

Next, looking at CF, there were simply no options on the market with plus defense -- the one attribute I was looking for -- that would have been a reasonable buy.

On the other hand, there were several options on the starting pitcher market, but few without compensation attached or that looked like a good value buy. I ended up only signing one starter, who I hope will prove to be a great bargain. Kyle T. Smith is listed as a reliever but has four pitches, plus control, and above average stuff, movement, and stamina. In many ways he is similar to the signing of Tanaka last year. I just need to prioritize giving him a chance to start in spring training and even if he doesn't cut it as a starter, to give him a chance in the bullpen. He signed a one year contract for $0.9 million. He came in at #130 overall on my customized rankings

Without a clear closer option, I decided to wait until later in the offseason again to reevaluate.

I only made two other early offers: $0.75 million/1 year to minor league C Mario Feliciano, a strong defender with very high leadership, and $0.9 million to minor league 2B/SS Derian Cruz, plus defender with average hitting ability and poor power. Both signed. I expect to use Feliciano in AAA and Cruz as a AAA starter or MLB backup at SS and 2B. With this move I feel like I have good depth at both C and 2B, but still lack a clear, no doubt about it SS.

These signings also allowed me to make two trades from these positions of depth.

First, I traded MiLB 2B Nick Shumpert and MiLB CF Jim Sineath to the White Sox for RP Eric Lauer, MiLB RF Josh Lindberg, and MiLB C Alexander Alvarez. Lauer, a lefty is the main piece of the return for me. He is above average across the board in the main pitching categories and with three of his four pitches. This suggests that he has the ability to make a few spot starts if necessary. Lindberg is a plus defender in right field with plus intangibles and average hitting. At 23 years old, he is a borderline prospect. At 28, Alvarez is valuable minor league filler as a solid defensive catcher.

The second trade was the bigger one. It was actually the first time in my time playing OOTP that I have pursued this particular strategy in a trade. As I was unhappy with the value of available free agents, particularly at my positions of need, I decided to pull back two contract offers I made and to instead take on payroll in a trade in order to add another prospect to my farm system. While signing SS Gordon to a contract with an early opt-out and temporarily surrendering one of my comp picks would have made my team more competitive in the immediate term, I do like the alternative I pursued where I will keep the comp round pick and add a prospect via trade.

The contract I decided to take on was C Francisco Mejia's one year remaining at roughly $13.2 million. I sent back backup catcher Vazquez, MiLB RP Mendonca, and MiLB RP/SP Wiseman to Cleveland. Contract wise, this resulted in an $11 million hit to my budget. And the prospect I acquired, SP Jose Garcia, was a comp round pick in the most recent first year player draft and ranked #32 overall on my draft board on draft day.

Garcia is a 19 year old right handed starting pitcher. In the three pitching categories his potential stuff and movement are plus and potential control is above average. His control is currently the least developed of these three, which increases his risk. He has a three pitch mix (fastball 97-99 mph, sinker, and splitter) all of which are currently average offerings and project to get better. OOTP projects him to add an average changeup to his repertoire, but my scout does not see that happening. His high intelligence and very high work ethic make up his excellent intangibles rating. I'm especially excited to add a young and already sufficiently developed, high potential pitching prospect to my system as this is the exact type of prospect I missed out on adding in the draft last year.

After this, I shifted back to the FA market with my eye on adding a closer. All of the top available closers are in their mid to late 30's, making them poor options for my qualifying offer strategy. I did find a 31 year old a little farther down the board. I offered CL Silvino Bracho a two year contract for $6 million a year, the second year being a player option. Despite not being one of the elite closers available, he has all the traits I look for in this kind of a signing: above average pitching ratings and repertoire, some previous closing experience (66 MLB saves), and ERA and/or FIP marks below 4 in recent years. He also has an "iron man" injury history, making him less of a risk.

I gave one more look at what I would need to give up for a top defensive center fielder and only one who is strapped with a burdensome contract can even be had for one of my top players.

To cap off the offseason, I used the last of the available funds to increase my development budget to $32 million. I also feel good about entering the season with $5 million available as this could be handy if I draft several high-cost picks or decided to exceed the international amateur free agent cap.

Overall, this team isn't likely a contender yet, but I think has a good chance to finish around .500. Also, I forgot to mention that both Drury and Rivero did sign elsewhere so in addition to the players I've added to my farm system, I'll have two picks in the comp round. This essentially gives me three first round picks in the upcoming first year player draft.

My farm system overview is overdue and will be coming soon, but first, I'll advance through spring training...

[orangebird]

How old is Strasburg in 2023? Impressive to see him pitching that well.

[GM_CheatSheets]

Originally Posted by orangebird

How old is Strasburg in 2023? Impressive to see him pitching that well.

[GM_CheatSheets]

The Expos finished the spring with a 13-15 record.

Kaprielian remains the ace of my staff, though Montes De Oca may be a close #2. Montes De Oca was only able to make two starts (8 IP) as he got off to a late start in his return from injury. Otherwise Reid-Foley, Lauer, and Smith all pitched well. Paddack had mixed results, but will likely make the rotation.

Several batters performed well without one separating from the others. RF Kirilloff, C Dillard, RF Tucker, 2B Massey, CF Lewis, and 1B Rincon all had great spring stats. I played Kirilloff primarily in LF to build up his ratings there. He now rates with 7 defense in LF.

This will make for some interesting and tough decisions in getting the team down to 25, especially RF (and the OF alignment) and 1B.

My owner's expectations are the same as last year: "stay respectable on the field." And OOTP projects a 76-86 record, last place finish in the NL East, and just outside of the bottom 10 in MLB. My hopes are that with some luck I can push .500 and further stock my farm system with talent.

The Dodgers again project as the best team with an expected 98-64 record. The Mets are again projected to win the NL East, this time with a 92-70 record.

In a bit of a surprise to me, Bryce Montes De Oca projects as the #10 overall starter in the National League. His projected line is 32 GS, 192.2 IP, 15 W, 9 L, 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.18 BB/9, and 8.12 K/9.

Below is a preview of my team. Again, any ratings mentioned follow this scale: overall and potential 20-80 and all other ratings 1-20.

Starting Pitching - My rotation, mentioned above is deeper and more talented than last year's version. Overall, the rotation rates higher in control and lower in stuff than last year.

Relief Pitching - The bullpen returns most of the same players and should be reliable once again. My hope is that Bracho will put up a great season as closer. The one wild card looks to be RP Dilmer Mejia who has really good ratings but put up below average stats in his rookie season last year and in the spring.

Catcher - Dillard returns for his first season as the opening day catcher. I can only hope that he can match his production from last year. Offseason acquisition Francisco Mejia will replace Vazquez in the high intangibles and defense backup. If he plays well in this role or gains extra playing time due to injuries, there is a possibility that he could be in position to reject a qualifying offer. If this turns out to be the case, the trade for him looks even better as it would then have netted me a top pitching prospect and a comp pick. However, I don't have high expectations of this best case scenario actually playing out.

First Base - At first I decided to go with trade acquisition Franco and Rincon. Ideally they will play mostly in a platoon, but Franco's overall rating (68) is significantly better than Rincon (27). Xu was the roster casualty and will be demoted to AAA if he clears waivers. I didn't find a suitable trade offer for him or the others placed on waivers.

Second Base - Massey moves to second and is the clear starter there. He is average to slightly above average defensively and provides most of his value through his bat.

Third Base - Third was another tough decision for me. Ultimately I decided to place Chapman on waivers and go with the switch hitting Enright and lefty Mendoza. Franco can also play third.

Shortstop - John Devine will start and Derian Cruz will back up here. Both are best suited for second base, but should still play above average defense at short. Devine has some limited offensive upside if he can hit for average and steal bases.

Left Field - Ceciliani will either start or back up in left field. Kirilloff is another option here. Vizcaino was placed on waivers and will go to AAA if he clears.

Center Field - Though it's not what I planned at the end of last season, Lewis returns as the starting center fielder. Ideally I will be able to trade Lewis away for a prospect package if he gets off to a strong start and can upgrade defensively midway through the season. It's worth noting that Qin will start in the high minors and put together a strong spring.

Right Field - Kirilloff will likely be the starting right fielder, though he could easily be shifted to left field if I decide to give Tucker more playing time over Ceciliani. Ideally both corner spots would play out as platoons, but as of now I have three lefty hitters rotating between the two positions.

It's still a far from perfect roster, but one with some depth and some upside.

Next, I will preview my farm system and top prospects heading into the 2024 season...

[GM_CheatSheets]

In my first extended post on my farm system, I will provide brief write ups on each of my top 20 prospects determined using the same spreadsheet to evaluate free agents and trade targets.

I do want to get the bad news out of the way first. This is that the Expos are still tied for last in team farm system rankings and that none of my prospects made the OOTP top 100 prospects list.

I haven't yet finished the calculation for my customized top 100 prospect ranking to be listed in the chart, but I believe my top 3-4 prospects fall in the back half of that list.

Without further ado, here is the list:

1. RP Miles Rosales, AAA (Trade w/HOU 11/2023)
   Rosales is making the jump from A- where he put up 13.9 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 20 IP last year. He has a two pitch repertoire (fastball 99-101 MPH and screwball). Both rate as plus pitches.
2. CL Jim Jensen, AAA (Trade w/HOU 11/2023)
   Jensen is also making the jump from A- where he posted 13.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 41 IP. His repertoire also features two plus pitches (cutter 96-98 MPH and curveball).
3. RF Josh Lindberg, AA (Trade w/CWS 12/2023)
   Lindberg is making the jump up from R. He has above average potential in four of the five batting categories with his eye/discipline below average. His defense and speed is also above average.
4. SS Danny Flores, A- (2023 Draft Rd 1)
   Flores, my first overall pick in the draft fell in potential over the course of the offseason and looks more like a regular player more than a superstar. He had a 108 wRC+ in R ball last year.
5. SS Frank Arreola, AAA (Trade w/HOU 11/2023)
   Arreola is also making a large jump from R where he put up a 145 wRC+. He has plus speed and arm, but may need to move to third base.
6. C Mario Feliciano, AAA (FA Signing 12/2023)
   Feliciano has an average to slightly above average bat and plus defense.
7. CF Freddie Robson, A- (2023 Draft Rd 2)
   Robson struggled offensively last year, but might be the youngest player in my system. He has the potential for an above average to plus bat and plays plus defense.
8. SP Thomas McCormick, AAA (Trade w/MIA 11/2023)
   Last year McCormick posted a 9.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 110.2 AA IP. Control is the main concern here, but he is projected to reach average. His repertoire is impressive (fastball 97-99 MPH, slider, changeup, and a 50% developed screwball).
9. 3B Cole Philhower, A- (2023 Draft Rd 4)
   Philhower projects to have a slightly above average bat and plus arm, but he has poor speed and range. His stats were below average last year in R and A-.
10. SS Jon Chris, A- (2023 Draft Rd 3)
    Chris has plus speed, defense, contact, gap power, and avoid k. His stats were average to slightly below average in R ball.
11. CF Ka-fei Qin, AAA (Trade w/CIN 11/2023)
    Qin is making the jump from R ball. He has plus speed and range, but rates as average defensively in center. His best batting attribute is avoid k and is otherwise average with the bat.
12. RF Mike Siani, AAA (MiLB FA Signing 4/2023)
    Siani is the lone player on this list that I didn't personally sign or trade for. He has plus speed and defense in right field, though his bat is merely average.
13. SP Jose Garcia, AA (Trade w/CLE 12/2023)
    Garcia will make the jump up from R where he posted 10.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 58 IP. He is among the youngest players in my system and has above average pitching potential with control the least developed category. He has a strong three pitch repertoire (fastball 97-99 MPH, sinker, and splitter).
14. SP Bob Caballero, AAA (Trade w/CWS 7/2023)
    Caballero is making the jump from A+. His pitching potential rates as above average, though his control is the least developed of these attributes. His repertoire includes a fastball 93-95 MPH, curveball, splitter, and a 50% developed circle changeup.
15. 2B Derian Cruz, MLB (FA Signing 1/2024)
    Cruz is the only player on this list starting on my major league roster. Last year he posted a 93 wRC+ in AAA. He has plus speed and defense as a middle infielder, though his bat is only average.
16. CL Danny Sianez, AA (2023 Draft Rd 10)
    Sianez makes the jump up from R ball after posting a 14.7 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. His control is only 50% developed. His repertoire consists of a cutter 96-98 MPH and changeup.
17. SS Chris Ruiz, AA (Trade w/STL 11/2023)
    Ruiz is also making the jump from R ball. He has an average bat, below average speed, and plus defense at shortstop and third base.
18. SS Josh Young, A- (2023 Draft Rd 7)
    Young has plus speed and defense.
19. CF Mike Jackson, A+ (Trade w/STL 11/2023)
    Jackson has an average bat and plus speed, range, and arm. He may eventually move to an outfield corner.
20. CF Bob York, A- (2023 Draft Rd 6)
    York put up poor stats in R ball last year. Though he does have an average to slightly above average bat and plays with plus speed and defense.

Overall, I'm pleased with the state of my farm system when considering it's been built in just over one year. My expectation is that after another year or two of drafts, signings, and trades, this list will be much deeper and with more top level prospects.

Though the depth on this list is sparse pitching-wise (especially starting pitchers), there are a few exciting arms here. Ultimately, it will be interesting to see what they amount to and what kind of results they can produce at the major league level.

This year I am spending just below the maximum on development, so I hope to see 2-3 players make a nice jump up the rankings. It will be interesting with so many of these players making significant jumps in playing level to see who can stick and who is pushed back lower in the system.

Up next, the season is underway and the first monthly recap of the 2024 season is soon due...

[GM_CheatSheets]

The Expos got off to a solid start to the season in April.

The season again opened against the Marlins. The Expos won 1 of 3 games. Next the Expos won 2 of 3 against the Dodgers, 1 of 3 against Tampa Bay, and 2 of 4 against the Mets. Next the Expos were swept by the Phillies in a three game set followed by winning just 1 of 3 against the Giants.

At this point, 2B Massey was placed on the DL with an injury for three weeks. As Massey was struggling after being one of the most consistent performers last year, I hope that he can come back from this injury refreshed.

The Expos got back on track winning 2 of 3 against Cincinnati. At this time I placed LF Ceciliani on a rehab assignment to AAA.

The month concluded with winning 2 of 3 against Cleveland and splitting a two game series with the Cubs. The Expos finished the month with a 12-15 record.

Here's how my batters performed for the month:



1B Franco got off to the best start of my hitters. He led the team with 7 HR and 20 RBI. LF Kirilloff had 14 R and was joined by CF Lewis and RF Tucker as positive contributors offensively.

2B Massey struggled before his injury and C Dillard is off to a slow start as well. If this team is going to play up to my expectations, I will need both of them to rebound strongly in the coming months.

And the pitchers:



RP Mejia had the most spectacular month of my pitchers with 21 K, 0 BB, 1.29 ERA, 0.44 FIP in 14 IP. CL Bracho also pitched well with 7 SV, 2.19 ERA, and 3.96 FIP. If he continues to pitch close to this level, he will no doubt turn down a qualifying offer.

SP Montes De Oca led the way for my rotation with 36 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 2.62 FIP.

Next, I hope to build some momentum and put up a winning record in May...

[orangebird]

21/0 K/BB ratio is pretty impressive!

[GM_CheatSheets]

May was by all accounts a very successful month.

It started with a two game sweep of the Diamondbacks and winning 2 of 3 versus the Rockies. This was followed by two three game series sweeps; first of the Nationals and second of the Braves. At this point I activated 2B Massey from his rehab assignment and moved Reid-Foley to the bullpen and Smith to the rotation.

The Expos then won 2 of 3 against the Padres. The loss in this series ended a ten game winning streak. The Mets interrupted this streak with a three game sweep of the Expos.

The month ended with the Expos winning 2 of 4 versus the Pirates, 1 of 3 versus the Cardinals, 1 of 3 versus the Marlins, and winning the first game of a series versus the Dodgers.

For the first time in what feels like forever, the Expos finished with a decidedly winning record: 17-11.

Now the batting performances for the month:



3B Mendoza replaced Enright in the starting lineup and excelled in May, drawing his value from his average and on-base percentage. RF Tucker led the team with 5 HR and 22 RBI while C Dillard had 16 R. 1B Franco and LF Kirilloff were among the other top hitters. On the bases, CF Lewis and 2B Cruz made their presence known with 5 SB each.

And the pitchers:



The bullpen was extraordinary in May. Led by RP Burdi (11.1 IP, 0 BB, 16 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.66 FIP), there were four relievers with ERA's under 1. Mosqueda, Mejia, and Tate were the others. Bracho wasn't quite on their level, but still added 7 SV with a 1.69 ERA.

SP Montes De Oca was again the top starter posting a 1.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 3.29 FIP in 38.2 IP over 5 GS. Other than SP Paddack, the rotation were more average than spectacular

In the division, the Mets have started to pull away, but the Phillies, Expos and Pirates are all within three games of each other. And though it is early, the Expos are only 1 game back from the second wild card spot.

I concluded the month by sending 1B Rincon down to AAA and calling up 1B Xu who was performing well at AAA.

Coming up next is coverage of the 2024 first year player draft...

[GM_CheatSheets]

This draft is perhaps my best opportunity yet to add young talent to my farm system as I am picking near the top of the order and have two extra first round comp picks.

Round 1, Pick 7



This was a very difficult pick to decide on, especially how much I wanted to add a top pitcher. I passed on Russel because although my scout gives him three pitches, OOTP only gives him two. I passed on Byer because his control only projects as average at best. Ultimately I decided on SS Greg Warren (19, high school) and his tremendous power potential and intangibles, and great up the middle defense. His $7 million demand will take up most of my draft budget.



Comp Round, Pick 2



SP Alan De Angelis (20, college) was the clear pick here, finally netting me a top pitcher. His pitching ratings project to above average with great control. His repertoire includes fastball 94-96 MPH, curveball, splitter, and a lesser thought of knuckle curve.



Comp Round, Pick 15

I looked a few of the top pitchers here before ultimately deciding on the top player remaining on my board, SP Jon Moser (19, high school). Moser has only average control, but an advanced repertoire with six pitches that project to at least average (fastball 95-97 MPH, curveball, slider, changeup, forkball, and circle changeup.



Round 2, Pick 3

I gave a long look at SP Andy Palmer, thinking that Derringer might fall to the next round, but Palmer's fragile injury history ultimately convinced me to select CF Sean Derringer (18, high school). My scout rates Derringer much higher than OOTP as he has great potential in all batting categories with the exception of eye/discipline. He has average speed and defense, making him a borderline center fielder.



Round 3, Pick 5



Knowing that Coughlin should fall at least one more round, I decided to take SS Mike Phipps (20 college). His strength is in contact, gap power, and avoid k.



Round 4, Pick 6

SP Matt Coughlin (20, college) was an easy choice here. He has great pitching potential with control being the least developed. His repertoire includes a fastball 97-99 MPH, slider, and splitter. Coughlin, ultimately asks for significantly more than $1.9 million.



Round 5, Pick 6



Here I decided to select SP Kevin McDonald (21, college). He has above average pitching potential with a four pitch repertoire (fastball 94-96 MPH, curveball, splitter, and a lesser thought of changeup).



Round 6, Pick 6

Next, I took the top player remaining on my board, SS Richard Goette (20, college). His bat is most average to above average, but his calling card is his 20 potential avoid k. He also has average to above average defense and speed.



Round 7, Pick 6

I again went back to the top player on the board, CL Caleb Scott (21, college). Scott has above average pitching ratings with plus stuff. His repertoire includes a sinker 96-96 MPH and a changeup. Though he is listed as an impossible demand, this turned out to only be significantly more than $290,000.



Round 8, Pick 6



I'm a little surprised that there is still a pitcher with the potential of SP Dave McKean (19, high school) available here. He has average to above average pitching potential and three above average pitches (fastball 93-95 MPH, slider, and changeup).



Round 9, Pick 6

SP Jesse Tew (18, high school) has good intelligence which I hope will help him more fully develop his third pitch to the level that he is able to start. Otherwise, he could be a strong pitcher out of the bullpen with two plus offerings.



Round 10, Pick 6

For the last of the picks I will highlight RF Eric Bayne (18, high school). He has an average to above average bat, average to below average defense, and poor speed.



Draft recap:



Overall, I'm very happy with the draft as I was able to add a lot of pitching talent, especially lefties. Of the position players I added, they tend to show the ability to play up the middle positions with at least average defense and strong bats.

Budget-wise, I will need to exceed the $10 million draft budget to sign all of these players, but only by about $1 million.

In the coming months, I will post where these players fit into my organizational top 20 prospects.

Next, though, is the monthly recap for June...

[GM_CheatSheets]

After a fantastic month of May, June represented a reversal of fortunes.

The month started getting swept in two games versus the Dodgers. Then the Expos won 1 of 3 against the Blue Jays and 1 of 3 against the Rays. RP Medina was placed on the DL for 10 days between these two series and I called up top prospect RP Miles Rosales for a cup of coffee.

The Expos were then swept by the Indians, won 2 of 4 versus the Phillies, and 2 of 3 versus the Pirates. After this series, RP Medina was activated from his rehab assignment and RP Rosales was sent back down.

The month concluded with the Expos winning 2 of 3 versus the Giants, 2 of 3 versus the Braves, and only 1 of 3 against the Nationals.

This adds up to an 11-16 record for the month and pushes the Expos back to two games below .500.

Here is how my batters performed for the month:



1B Franco, C Dillard, and 3B Mendoza were the top offensive performers in June. 2B Massey showed some signs of coming around as he led the team with 5 HR for the month.

And the pitchers:



RP Tate put up the best month pitching-wise as it marked a noticeable step back from May. In the rotation, SP Montes De Oca continues to put up a solid season as he is the leading starter on my staff for the third straight month.

In a move that I hope can re-boost my pitching and help my rotation in particular, I closed the month making a trade with Boston. I sent RF Tucker and MiLB 1B Christiansen for CF Edward Reese and MiLB RP Devon James.

Reese is among the top defensive center fielders (20 CF, 20 range, 20 error, 18 arm, 18 speed). His bat is below average and he will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason. This move will also push Lewis into the short side of a platoon in CF with Reese. I've lost any hope that Lewis will return anything valuable in a trade.

The international amateur free agent eligible players will soon be announced. The next post will preview and recap the 2024 signing period...

[GM_CheatSheets]

The international amateur period opened and I imported the class into my spreadsheet, revealing a moderately strong and fairly well balanced class.



I started with offers to SP Alaniz ($780,000), SS Naranjo ($250,000), CF Paniagua ($1.6 million), and SP Fernandez ($250,000).

SP Alaniz and SP Fernandez signed immediately. Alaniz projects to have 20 stuff, though only 12 control. His three pitch repertoire includes an average sinker 89-91 MPH, as well as a plus curveball and slider. At 16 years old, he has plenty of time to develop and add velocity.

Fernandez, 16, also projects to have stronger stuff than control. He pairs this with a four pitch mix of three projected average pitches (fastball 85-87 MPH, cutter, curveball) and a plus changeup.

A few days later, SS Naranjo signed for $282,000. Naranjo projects to have an average bat with above average avoid k. His speed is very good, but his defense is only average. He is 18.

Though I really wanted CF Paniagua, I quickly had to decide if this was a good time or not to overspend the signing cap. I ultimately decided against this and made offers to two new players: SS Guerrero ($670,000) and SP Masuoka ($1.04 million).

The price on both continued to rise late through July and I refocused singularly on SS Guerrero. He eventually signed for $1.68 million. Guerrero, 16, projects to be a slightly above average bat. It is unclear where he will end up defensively. This was definitely an overpay for him, but I wanted to add one more player instead of leaving money on the table here.



Overall, this isn't the best haul, but objectively it is another decent haul: 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 13, all while staying under the cap. Perhaps next year will be the first year that I spend big.

We will see how the Expos fared through July next...

[GM_CheatSheets]

July ended up being a disappointing month.

It started getting swept in three games by the Cubs and winning only 1 of 3 versus the Reds.

Two of my relievers (Tate and Mejia) made the National League all-star team.

After the ASG break, the Expos won 2 of 4 versus the Phillies, were swept in three games versus the Padres, won 2 of 3 versus the Diamondbacks, won 1 of 3 versus the Cardinals, won 1 of 3 versus the Rays, and closed the month splitting the first two of a three game series versus the Red Sox.

This adds up to an 8-16 record for the month.

Though I wasn't as active at the trade deadline as I hoped to be, I did make two trades. First I sent SP Lauer to Tampa Bay for RP/SP Brock Burke and MiLB RP/SP Justin Lucas. Burke made the all-star team and is posting a spectacular season as a lefty reliever with a three pitch mix. He will replace Lauer in my rotation. For the second year in a row and despite his four pitch mix and groundball tendency, Lauer had an inflated ERA due to one of the highest HR allowed rates in MLB.

Second, I sent LF Ceciliani, MiLB SP Godfrey, MiLB SP Reed, and cash to Atlanta for LF Brandon Boissiere, MiLB LF Dave Santiago, and MiLB CL Ozzie Portas. Boissiere will ideally produce what I hoped to get from Ceciliani -- above average defense and average or better bat in left field. Boissiere's strength is in his high contact and avoid k ratings. His power is very low. Santiago is a legitimate prospect, though he is already relegated to left field. He has plus defense and projects to have an above average bat. Portas could become a shutdown bullpen arm if he is able to harness his control -- he's more of a throw-in high risk, high reward reliever.

Here's how the batters performed for the month:



3B Mendoza, 2B Massey, and SS Devine each had good months at the plate. Other than that the offense was pretty punchless.

And the pitchers:



Again, the bullpen led the way. RP's Mosqueda and Mejia each struck out more than a batter per inning and didn't walk a single batter in July. Kaprielian was my best starter by FIP but was unlucky with an ERA almost double that. SP's Smith and Paddack each outperformed their FIP.

Next, we will look at the updated top 30 prospects in my organization to see how player development, the draft, and trades have impacted the rankings...

[GM_CheatSheets]

Below is my current top 30 prospect list with additions from recent trades and the draft.



Notes and observations:

• Recent trade acquisition CL Ozzie Poras jumps to the top of the list with his outstanding stuff and movement ratings. His actual value is diminished by his low control. This might be something I need to re-weight in the spreadsheet or adjust a calculation if a more complex fix is needed. This is all to say that although he ranks first, I don't actually view him as the top prospect in my system.
• My top pick from the recent draft, SS Greg Warren, ranks at #3 in my system. Other notable recent draft picks who made the list include: CF Sean Derringer at #13, SS Richard Goette at #17, SS Mike Phipps at #23, and SP Alan De Angelis at #29.
• LF Dave Santiago, another recent trade acquisition, ranks #14 in the system.
• CF Freddie Robson is ranked about the same (#7) as the pre-season list, but his increase in ratings show that he seems to be developing well.
• Another development success is CF Bob York at #24 as his rating has also increased with his ranking remaining about the same.
• SS Danny Flores, the first overall pick in last year's draft, has had an interesting year plus while in my system. His overall potential rating was 80 when drafted and dropped as low as 30 toward the beginning of this season. He has posted solid but not spectacular stat line this season and has seen many of his current ratings improve and his overall potential rating increase back up near 50.

I hope to refine these prospect reports as I write more of them, potentially adding a most and least improved player feature.

Next up, is a look at the month of August...