Market Sizes

[PSUColonel]

Does anyone know when these changes take effect? I manually changed all market values prior to the start of the season, but the media revenues remained the same as beforehand??

[NoOne]

I think 200M local media revunue on default financials is ~18-20 market size, if it gets there.

you have to change the contracts by hand, or change the years to 1 and they will fall into line after it expires (in Team Settings). Use the Accounting info from Front Office to see what next year's media revenue is estimated to be, if you want to change it immediately. remember to subtract national media revenue from that total. also, make sure to type in the correct new total media revenue, not just fix contract totals.

old data just used as filler:
national is ~50M? and average local is 25-30? you'd want to figure this out with certainty. i know at 30M local you can't get above 140M media contract, though.... but with a 200M media contract and a 56K stadium i'd wager you can break 500M revenue in this game, LoL!

then, use a low / mid / high Fan Interest and Fan Loyalty settings and figure out the associated media contract value for each market size. wit that table, you can match up your RL data to the proper Market Size. using the accounting page will tell you the values.

i just did this as part of setting up a new league. screw around all you want as long as things remain in balance and aren't too skewed in a detrimental way.

[PSUColonel]

I will just wait for them to expire, as that sounds easiest...One thing that has my curiosity however...in the financial tabs, why is the national media contract fixed, rather than "based on team market size"?

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I will just wait for them to expire, as that sounds easiest...One thing that has my curiosity however...in the financial tabs, why is the national media contract fixed, rather than "based on team market size"?

That's the most accurate setting. In real life, MLB splits national TV contract revenue (Fox, ESPN, etc.) equally among all teams.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by NoOne

I think 200M local media revunue on default financials is ~18-20 market size, if it gets there.

you have to change the contracts by hand, or change the years to 1 and they will fall into line after it expires (in Team Settings). Use the Accounting info from Front Office to see what next year's media revenue is estimated to be, if you want to change it immediately. remember to subtract national media revenue from that total. also, make sure to type in the correct new total media revenue, not just fix contract totals.

old data just used as filler:
national is ~50M? and average local is 25-30? you'd want to figure this out with certainty. i know at 30M local you can't get above 140M media contract, though.... but with a 200M media contract and a 56K stadium i'd wager you can break 500M revenue in this game, LoL!

then, use a low / mid / high Fan Interest and Fan Loyalty settings and figure out the associated media contract value for each market size. wit that table, you can match up your RL data to the proper Market Size. using the accounting page will tell you the values.

i just did this as part of setting up a new league. screw around all you want as long as things remain in balance and aren't too skewed in a detrimental way.

The local media contracts are already 1 year by default.(probably because I changed the market sizes) It's currently March 18th...and the contracts do NOT change once the new season begins. What would happened if I entered "0" in the local media contract years left field? What if I did the same for National?

If I just leave them at 1 year each, when will it change? I would have thought the changes would have taken effect at the start of a new MLB season. Does it happen between the off-season and pre-season? Just trying to understand what to expect, and when. Thank for your help and input.

Colonel

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

That's the most accurate setting. In real life, MLB splits national TV contract revenue (Fox, ESPN, etc.) equally among all teams.

Except for Toronto I believe.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by RchW

Except for Toronto I believe.

That would be tough to replicate without throwing things out of whack I'd guess.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by NoOne

I think 200M local media revunue on default financials is ~18-20 market size, if it gets there.

you have to change the contracts by hand, or change the years to 1 and they will fall into line after it expires (in Team Settings). Use the Accounting info from Front Office to see what next year's media revenue is estimated to be, if you want to change it immediately. remember to subtract national media revenue from that total. also, make sure to type in the correct new total media revenue, not just fix contract totals.

old data just used as filler:
national is ~50M? and average local is 25-30? you'd want to figure this out with certainty. i know at 30M local you can't get above 140M media contract, though.... but with a 200M media contract and a 56K stadium i'd wager you can break 500M revenue in this game, LoL!

then, use a low / mid / high Fan Interest and Fan Loyalty settings and figure out the associated media contract value for each market size. wit that table, you can match up your RL data to the proper Market Size. using the accounting page will tell you the values.

i just did this as part of setting up a new league. screw around all you want as long as things remain in balance and aren't too skewed in a detrimental way.

If I fill in "0"instead of one, will the changes take effect at the start of the season, or still not?

[PSUColonel]

OK, I think I see what's going on here...please confirm if I have this correct. Every national media contract is fixed at 45 million...so all I need to do is fill in the local media amounts based on market size. Since I have changed market sizes I just need to adjust as follows:


Astronomical... 95 million

Huge...85 million

Very Big...75 million

Big... 65 million

Somewhat big...55 million

above avg... 47.5 million

avg... 37.5 million

below avg... 30 million

small... 23 million

the problem I see though is the AI teams don't raise or lower ticket prices based on the new market sizes...is there a way to account for this?

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

OK, I think I see what's going on here...please confirm if I have this correct. Every national media contract is fixed at 45 million...so all I need to do is fill in the local media amounts based on market size. Since I have changed market sizes I just need to adjust as follows:


Astronomical... 95 million

Huge...85 million

Very Big...75 million

Big... 65 million

Somewhat big...55 million

above avg... 47.5 million

avg... 37.5 million

below avg... 30 million

small... 23 million

the problem I see though is the AI teams don't raise or lower ticket prices based on the new market sizes...is there a way to account for this?

yeah, you've got the media contract values and market sizes. with one year contracts, it should realign the following year. fan interest and loyalty will affect the local contract to some extent, too. baseline is relative to middle of the road interest/loyalty. another wrench is that they can change from year-to-year based on performance. so, they evolve over time a bit.

AI in the bigger markets will definitely price into the low 30's with high loyalty and interest. not sure about hte rest, but i don't review this sort of thing in a systematic way. i find it's best not to pay too close attention to a sports game's ai, in general.

whatever you have set as the local baseline, that will be a 5 market with middling interest/loyalty. maybe a +/$7.5ish million at that market size with default settings.

you can see the effects of a new market immediately by going to Front OFfice, then clicking the Accounting page. 1yr contract will have expired and it eastimates the following year with the correct new contract value relative to fan interest and loyalty. subtract the national contract value.

edit: one last thing to think about: just because of timing, the yankees have a seemingly small contract relative to the dodgers, but the same can be said when the yankees signed their deal and the dodgers were midway through a previous even older deal.... and so it goes.

in this game there is no inflation or continually larger deals as market size remains the same or slightly larger. a 5 will be a 30M give or take contract. so, in retrospect i'd base it on tv market size as well as the money data. the new york tv market is larger isn't it? it's feasible that they match or exceed the dodgers.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by NoOne

edit: one last thing to think about: just because of timing, the yankees have a seemingly small contract relative to the dodgers, but the same can be said when the yankees signed their deal and the dodgers were midway through a previous even older deal.... and so it goes.

in this game there is no inflation or continually larger deals as market size remains the same or slightly larger. a 5 will be a 30M give or take contract. so, in retrospect i'd base it on tv market size as well as the money data. the new york tv market is larger isn't it? it's feasible that they match or exceed the dodgers.

So, in many ways, it is still beneficial to go by the Forbes list instead.

Forbes Welcome

What will happen if I have teams like the Yankees with say a 16 market size and a 10 loyalty?, or a 20 Market size with a 5 loyalty? I can see what the financial effects will be on the accounting page, but when I say "what will happen?" I mean will it really throw things out of whack for the league? I am considering trying to make the media deals as close to RL as possible, but I will end up having a lot of say $40 million deals also...would that hurt league stability?

[PSUColonel]

OK...After much deliberation, here is what I hope may be my final Market list. I have had to decide what and how to balance certain things with these ratings. I decided I couldn't just use sheer market size, since teams like the A's and Tampa actually play in large markets, yet don't really receive much of the market share when it comes to local media. Then you have teams such as Toronto who is a tough one to figure out all in it's own. The Phillies right now are not getting a big cut of media resources, yet the hail from a very large market, who will benefit as soon as the roster improves and payroll increases.

So in this version of my list, I have taken a hybrid approach. I am taking market size into consideration, while at the same time, attempting to calculate team popularity. (not fan loyalty) For example, you could argue the Pirates should belong in the lowest category (3...small market) if you just looked at market size...however I feel they are followed by quite a few more fans living in Pittsburgh, so they get a "bonus" and are elevated to the "below avg" category. Same with the Reds. Some market sizes are just so small, that there wasn't anyway to justify this. (Brewers, Royals) Obviously Miami and Tampa are fairly large markets, but these teams simply have such a small following, that it's tough to say the belong above "small market". Also, there are shared market teams such as the Angels, White Sox, and Mets. I tried to place them where I thought appropriate.

Anyway, let me know what you think about this one. Still struggling with Toronto though.



Astronomical 12: Yankees

Astronomical 11: None

Huge 10: Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers

Very Big 9: Phillies, Rangers, Giants

Big 8: Nationals, Angels, Mets

Somewhat Big 7: Cardinals, Astros, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays

Above Avg. 6: White Sox, Diamondbacks, Twins

Average 5: Braves , Orioles, Indians

Below Average 4: Padres, Rockies, Reds, Pirates

Small 3: Rays, Marlins, Royals, Brewers, Athletics

[JMDurron]

If you're talking about national followings+local draws on top of more generic media market stats, there's absolutely no way that the Red Sox belong down with the Nats, Angels, and Mets. At a minimum, they should be at 9, and I'd argue that all of the Cubs, Giants, and Red Sox should be at level 10. The Cardinals also punch way above their market size with regards to having a national following and proportional impact on the overall local sports scene. I would swap them with the Braves, who are largely culturally irrelevant in their local market, despite a significant regional following overall.

[PSUColonel]

Do you think the Giants are that dissimilar from the Phillies back when Philadelphia was winning?

[PSUColonel]

Also...perhaps the Yankees should really be a 13...either that, or put the dodgers with the Red Sox and Cubs...I am not sure, but I am just thinking maybe there needs to be separation between the Yankees and Dodgers, since 1. There really is quite a difference in market size, and 2. the Dodgers share a market with the Angels.

[PSUColonel]

Also...not sure yet, about levels 7 & 6. Should the Mariners be in 7 or 6? Same with Blue Jays and Astros.

I could put the Mariners in 7, and the Astros in 6?? Not sure though. As I stated before...the Blue Jays are a tough one.

[NoOne]

make a spreadsheet. as you adjust market sizes, average them out for the league. if it's 5-6ish you are okay.... if you pump too much into the money supply you will get massive contracts. if you are unsure of a 7 or 6, look at the difference in income... is it significant enough to worry about? probably not, so go with your intuition in those cases.

check on the defaults again from a new league. write those down. maybe that will help you decide too. don't fret too much... pick somethign and let it ride.


and per boston, it's not about the following. it's about their local tv contract. i'm sure they are up near the top, regardless. the northeastern seaboard is densely populated, unlike most other areas.

[PSUColonel]

Could I do this: assign fictional finances to all teams...which I believe will base markets on payrolls. From there, I can see what OOTP did in terms of distributing market sizes to teams. It will have x amount of teams at each market size, and from there (and this is a guess) I could just replicate the same amount of teams within each market size, but do it to my liking instead of being tied to what the computer does. For instance, Philadelphia is simply not a small market team, but due to the payroll, OOTP will make it one. So this way I can try to just reorganize the order a bit, while still maintaining the integrity of the financial system. Would this work OK?

[NoOne]

i think the way your were doing it is fine... if this way seems easier or less labor-intensive, then go for it.

once you set something up, hit the Refresh button in Financial settings and look at estimated revenue and payrolls. if it's ~125M you know will will see similar to RL payrolls. (just don't make all teams a 1 and one team a 20 market or anything crazy and it will work out).

in general you can do a +35M to payroll and set their budget by hand if you need to. budgets are another animal compared to market sizes.

since you are doing this by hand, i'd make a spreadsheet and devise the exact finances you want for all the teams.

start with a grid of Market size and related local tv income deals. get all your reference material figure out first.

then distribute teh markets as you see fit. if you want to tie to to RL do that. don't worry about current payroll or anythign like that at the moment.

do a "=average(a1:a10)" for the column with market sizes (a1 = first cell, a10 = last cell, you can click-drage to highlight them after typeing "=average(" .... and hit enter. as long as it anywhere near 5, you should be okay. use that to double check yourself and how you distributed the market sizes.

i hesitate to put this up... first time i did it... messy and hard to read. i didn't label anythign for others to use etc etc... and it may have misinformation, so don't use anythign specific from it outside of organization and what info you might need to do what you want to do. anyway, the picture below shows what you'll need to figure out.

** i have a 30M local baseline. so all my # are wrong for you. the stuff under the middle table is the payroll i wanted, i just added 35 for the budgets above.

YEAH, that's right boston and NY are 1's. and i limit their budget to 115M. very realistic in my league... and that armpit they call cleveland is a 1 too. (former central division foes, no longer any divisions but i like sh*tting on them. they get their full budgets though and with a 30m baseline, they are only 20M less than average.)

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

Do you think the Giants are that dissimilar from the Phillies back when Philadelphia was winning?

Yes. The Giants are one of the arguably 4 flagship franchises throughout all of baseball history, with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals. The Cardinals' market is so much smaller that they absolutely can't be up near the top 5-7 teams in "market size" today, but the combination of market + following means that the Giants merit such consideration. Fans being willing to travel from far out of market to go to a home game for "their" team seems like something that should/could matter when figuring out their local "market size."

I will grant that I might be misunderstanding what factors you are or are not trying to capture here. I'm unclear whether "team popularity" JUST means locally, or if you're factoring in the national draw as well. Perhaps I'm imposing fan loyalty/merchandise type considerations upon you here inappropriately?

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

Also...perhaps the Yankees should really be a 13...either that, or put the dodgers with the Red Sox and Cubs...I am not sure, but I am just thinking maybe there needs to be separation between the Yankees and Dodgers, since 1. There really is quite a difference in market size, and 2. the Dodgers share a market with the Angels.

As long as you have a full gap between the Yankees and the next AL team (12-10 or 13-11, I think it matters not), I think you're fine with them. I'd argue that the Dodgers are the only team in baseball that have the combination of HUGE market, primary fan interest in said market (Angels are basically the Mets for comparison's sake here), and being a Top 2 MLB flagship franchise that happens to throw money around like it's Monopoly money when they aren't owned by a total incompetent.

My general thoughts on your newest list, by level

12 - Concur

11 - Recommend Dodgers go here

10 - MAYBE the Giants, depending on what you're trying to measure here. I keep being torn between "they should be just below on par with Red Sox and Cubs" and "they should be just above Philly". So, probably splitting hairs and you're fine here.

9 and below - aside from maybe the Giants, I think you've nailed it.