ZiPS vs PECOTA - Page 2

DocHalladay · 02-21-2016, 06:53 PM

An excellent, informative post by The Wolf and I certainly agree with the post by xw668.

PSUColonel · 02-21-2016, 07:05 PM

yes, I agree

fcabanski · 02-22-2016, 09:22 AM

A million monkeys at a million spreadsheets: 2015's projections systems in review, part two - Beyond the Box Score

Airdrop01 · 02-22-2016, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

OOTP is changing over from PECOTA to ZiPS for its player forecasting system in OOTP 17. I know some people are uneasy about this but all that I could say when I saw it was "Thank you, Markus"

ZiPS is a forecasting system designed to forecast player statistics based on "past performance and similarities to other major league players." It was created by baseball writer/investor Dan Szymborski, and it uses weighted averages of the previous seasons, adjustments for age by finding historical player comparisons, and batting average on balls in play when regressing player performance. ZiPS is a sort-of-acronym for Szymborski Projection System; Dan wanted it to rhyme with DIPS.

Szymboski: "The basic ZiPS line is best understood as roughly the 50th percentile projection for the given player." Unless Dan has changed things, ZiPS projections are not generated by a program per se, but by two huge spreadsheets (we're talking 1 GB huge).

PECOTA officially stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, but is actually named for MLB player Bill Pecota. It only uses only historical player comparisons and career paths similarities for its modeling. It is a simpler model.

In OOTP 17 we are therefore getting a big upgrade in player career forecasting by changing from PECOTA to ZiPS. I understand there are some jitters about this, but there should not be: ZiPS is great and a big step up. If you like more accurate career paths, you're in luck.

ZiPS data is available on Fangraphs, which is a website that you really should be reading if you play modern (as opposed to historical or fictional) OOTP.

My Royals will still get shafted. I hate PECOTA so this can't be worse though.

Baseball Prospectus this year is my last....after every year since I was a grade school boy. I can't stand it.

Airdrop01 · 02-22-2016, 08:45 PM

ZIPS: Gordon = Snow.

'nuff said for the nerds and their computers.

The Wolf · 02-22-2016, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

My Royals will still get shafted. I hate PECOTA so this can't be worse though.

Baseball Prospectus this year is my last....after every year since I was a grade school boy. I can't stand it.

The Royals do project very poorly. Sorry about that.

I am also sorry for you about BP. As a long time subscriber, I also hate what happened.

Anthony5967 · 02-23-2016, 12:49 AM

I gotta say, whatever the ratings system being I hope the ratings are accurate. Had to use a mets rotation with deGrom getting lit up for 4 era's in my franchises because he was like a 2.5 star. Syndergaard was a 2.5 potential too which was staggering. Hopefully they accurately rate that met staff, can't wait to play the game though.

DiMaggio5CF · 02-23-2016, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

The Royals do project very poorly. Sorry about that.

I am also sorry for you about BP. As a long time subscriber, I also hate what happened.

What happened?

Lukas Berger · 02-23-2016, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiMaggio5CF

What happened?

They went to hell in a handbasket.

diamondparoxysm · 02-23-2016, 01:56 AM

Great post. I wish OOTP gave you multiple ways to evaluate players with projections. For instance, giving you ZiPs, Pecota and steamer to judge talent on.

A question that stems from previous statement: Do you guys put your scouting accuracy at normal? As we know, stats have been a huge part of evaluating milb

Mike Donlin · 02-23-2016, 05:43 AM

Wait, OOTP 16 uses PECOTA and player forecasting now? Where?

Padreman · 02-23-2016, 09:24 AM

This is all fine and dandy and I don't really know what it means for fictional leagues

Lukas Berger · 02-23-2016, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Padreman

This is all fine and dandy and I don't really know what it means for fictional leagues

Nothing. It only affects the MLB rosters.

dward1 · 04-18-2016, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

They went to hell in a handbasket.

what specifically were the problems?

02-23-2016, 09:24 AM	#32
Padreman Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2013 Location: Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (formally San Diego, CA.) Posts: 4,131	This is all fine and dandy and I don't really know what it means for fictional leagues __________________ Chargers= Despicable Traitors

02-21-2016, 06:53 PM	#21
DocHalladay Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2007 Location: Alliston, Ontario Posts: 93	An excellent, informative post by The Wolf and I certainly agree with the post by xw668.

02-21-2016, 07:05 PM	#22
PSUColonel Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 13,143	yes, I agree

02-22-2016, 09:22 AM	#23
fcabanski Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 170	A million monkeys at a million spreadsheets: 2015's projections systems in review, part two - Beyond the Box Score

02-22-2016, 08:45 PM	#25
Airdrop01 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2009 Location: Lenexa, KS / Wilson, WY Posts: 1,354	ZIPS: Gordon = Snow. 'nuff said for the nerds and their computers.

02-23-2016, 12:49 AM	#27
Anthony5967 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 96	I gotta say, whatever the ratings system being I hope the ratings are accurate. Had to use a mets rotation with deGrom getting lit up for 4 era's in my franchises because he was like a 2.5 star. Syndergaard was a 2.5 potential too which was staggering. Hopefully they accurately rate that met staff, can't wait to play the game though.

02-23-2016, 01:56 AM	#30
diamondparoxysm Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 58	Great post. I wish OOTP gave you multiple ways to evaluate players with projections. For instance, giving you ZiPs, Pecota and steamer to judge talent on. A question that stems from previous statement: Do you guys put your scouting accuracy at normal? As we know, stats have been a huge part of evaluating milb

02-23-2016, 05:43 AM	#31
Mike Donlin All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Life, friends, is boring. Posts: 840	Wait, OOTP 16 uses PECOTA and player forecasting now? Where?