Anyone noticing players declining absurdly early? - Page 2

Lukas Berger · 11-17-2014, 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

Beckham never declined, he just never got any better.

He did decline. He got actively worse.

His first year he put up a line of .270/.347/.460

His best line in the five years since then is .267/.322/.372 and his career line is .245/.307/.375

marc5477 · 11-17-2014, 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tejdog1

None of those guys were superstars, though. I'm talking superstars.

I remember when those guys had flashes of brilliance. They definitely looked like they would be stars and certainly a lot of people thought so at the time. Kevin Maas hit 21 homers in only 300 ABs... this was a very big deal back then. Cecil Fielders 50 homers was awe inspiring before the steroid shooters destroyed all the stats. I have not watched a pro-baseball game since the mid 90s because of them despite loving the game. I prefer to play it and simulations instead of watching the clowns on TV.

Lukas Berger · 11-17-2014, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marc5477

I remember when those guys had flashes of brilliance. They definitely looked like they would be stars and certainly a lot of people thought so at the time. Kevin Maas hit 21 homers in only 300 ABs... this was a very big deal back then.

Oh yeah. I though he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, even as a Mets fan. Of course I was 8 at the time, so that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it

Lukas Berger · 11-17-2014, 02:50 AM

Which reminds me of another guy for my list, Shane Spencer.

Though he may not really apply since he was already 26 as a rookie.

tejdog1 · 11-17-2014, 03:13 AM

It's not just my team, either. Or one dynasty. It's multiple teams and multiple dynasties.

Lukas Berger · 11-17-2014, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tejdog1

It's not just my team, either. Or one dynasty. It's multiple teams and multiple dynasties.

Sure, agreed. Still, the question is not whether it happens in OOTP, it's should it happen.

I don't see any reason it shouldn't, since it does happen in real life. Do you have any rl data that indicates that it shouldn't happen?

Raidergoo · 11-17-2014, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Jay Bruce looks like he may be headed in that direction.

Bruce isn't protected by Votto and does not cope with infield shifts.

The Wolf · 11-17-2014, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseballonly

Trout is not declining. That's called regression to the mean. It is impossible to put up legendary numbers every season.

Hah! "Regressing to the mean" is a mathematical term that translates as "declining."

baseballonly · 11-17-2014, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Hah! "Regressing to the mean" is a mathematical term that translates as "declining."

Not really, his skills may still be the same or better,it's just that by random luck you aren't going to put up the same numbers every year.

The Wolf · 11-17-2014, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseballonly

Not really, his skills may still be the same or better,it's just that by random luck you aren't going to put up the same numbers every year.

Did you read the articles? They made it pretty clear that it didn't look like luck.

ThatSeventiesGuy · 11-17-2014, 03:21 PM

Haven't really noticed this much in my leagues. There was one guy who set the league record with 61 HR in his rookie year, but never really got close to those totals again - especially BA, as he hit .302 his rookie season, then never over .273 the rest of his career so far. Eric "Overda" Wall, formerly of the Chicago Blues, now a platoon outfielder (thanks to an injury to my star hitter) for my team.

He's now in his 14th - and probably final - season, hitting only .173 so far. Still, an improvement over last season, when he hit .143 and spent most of the year in the minors. Injuries are the only reason he hasn't gone back there this year.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 11-17-2014, 04:50 PM

Defensive WAR is such a ridiculous stat. His Offensive WAR has remained similar throughout his career and yet his defensive WAR has dipped. Despite the fact that it is a terrible indicator of defensive talent.

He's still a ludicrously good player people are just trying to tear him down.

Habsfan18 · 11-17-2014, 08:05 PM

Has anyone else had this issue? I hope it's not a new issue brought on by the latest patch.

I could understand it happening to some players, as that's realistic. But if a whole crapload of young stars are randomly declining all of a sudden that could be a big problem - especially if it just started happening after a new patch was released.

Habsfan18 · 11-17-2014, 11:46 PM

And one thing I'd like to know: Are we talking about a sudden decline in stats or ratings?

nebradska · 11-18-2014, 02:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habsfan18

Has anyone else had this issue? I hope it's not a new issue brought on by the latest patch.

I could understand it happening to some players, as that's realistic. But if a whole crapload of young stars are randomly declining all of a sudden that could be a big problem - especially if it just started happening after a new patch was released.

Don't worry. Tejdog is just overreacting based on retrospective bias. There's been no massive change in the dev engine.

Lukas Berger · 11-18-2014, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nebradska

Don't worry. Tejdog is just overreacting based on retrospective bias. There's been no massive change in the dev engine.

In fact there hasn't been any change to the dev engine at all, at least in the time period he's talking about.

The Wolf · 11-18-2014, 01:18 PM

Here's a good article about how baseball aging curves are changing in real life:

Are Aging Curves Changing? | FanGraphs Baseball

11-17-2014, 03:13 AM	#25
tejdog1 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Danbury, CT Posts: 1,648	It's not just my team, either. Or one dynasty. It's multiple teams and multiple dynasties. __________________ It's amazing How you make your face just like a wall How you take your heart and turn it off How I turn my head and lose it all And it's unnerving How just one move puts me by myself There you go just trusting someone else Now I know I put us both through hell ~Matchbox 20, "Leave" Everyone knows it's spelled "TRAID", not trade

11-17-2014, 03:21 PM	#31
ThatSeventiesGuy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 3,426	Haven't really noticed this much in my leagues. There was one guy who set the league record with 61 HR in his rookie year, but never really got close to those totals again - especially BA, as he hit .302 his rookie season, then never over .273 the rest of his career so far. Eric "Overda" Wall, formerly of the Chicago Blues, now a platoon outfielder (thanks to an injury to my star hitter) for my team. He's now in his 14th - and probably final - season, hitting only .173 so far. Still, an improvement over last season, when he hit .143 and spent most of the year in the minors. Injuries are the only reason he hasn't gone back there this year. __________________ https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...00&postcount=1

11-17-2014, 04:50 PM	#32
DustinthePOWERHOUSE All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Boston Posts: 871	Defensive WAR is such a ridiculous stat. His Offensive WAR has remained similar throughout his career and yet his defensive WAR has dipped. Despite the fact that it is a terrible indicator of defensive talent. He's still a ludicrously good player people are just trying to tear him down. __________________ Shootin' at the walls of heartache, BANG BANG, I am THE WARRIOR! "It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am"- Ali Wladimir Klitschko will DESTROY you.

11-17-2014, 02:50 AM	#24
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 21,371	Which reminds me of another guy for my list, Shane Spencer. Though he may not really apply since he was already 26 as a rookie.

11-17-2014, 08:05 PM	#33
Habsfan18 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 2,249	Has anyone else had this issue? I hope it's not a new issue brought on by the latest patch. I could understand it happening to some players, as that's realistic. But if a whole crapload of young stars are randomly declining all of a sudden that could be a big problem - especially if it just started happening after a new patch was released.

11-17-2014, 11:46 PM	#34
Habsfan18 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 2,249	And one thing I'd like to know: Are we talking about a sudden decline in stats or ratings?