Who had a better season? - Page 2

BIG17EASY · 01-21-2014, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Well yeah, in the real world the writers would be bowled over by the 0.99 ERA, and the 47 Saves, but that's why you can pick your own season awards, so you don't have to put up with writers.

No they wouldn't. Craig Kimbrel had a similar (maybe better) year in 2013 than this fictional closer, and he finished tied for fourth in the Cy Young voting with Matt Harvey, who didn't even pitch the last six weeks of the season.

actionjackson · 01-21-2014, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

No they wouldn't. Craig Kimbrel had a similar (maybe better) year in 2013 than this fictional closer, and he finished tied for fourth in the Cy Young voting with Matt Harvey, who didn't even pitch the last six weeks of the season.

I agree, it used to happen a lot more. Willie Hernandez, Dennis Eckersley, Eric Gagne, Mark Davis, Steve Bedrosian, and Rollie Fingers are some examples from the 1980's to now, but it appears the writers have finally started to get that there's more value in 200+ solid innings than there is in 70+ or so. Some of those guys had more (some much more) than 70 innings, but the point remains starters who are in the running for the CYA will almost invariably have more value to their teams than relievers who are in the running for the CYA.

le receveur · 01-21-2014, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

I agree, it used to happen a lot more. Willie Hernandez, Dennis Eckersley, Eric Gagne, Mark Davis, Steve Bedrosian, and Rollie Fingers are some examples from the 1980's to now, but it appears the writers have finally started to get that there's more value in 200+ solid innings than there is in 70+ or so. Some of those guys had more (some much more) than 70 innings, but the point remains starters who are in the running for the CYA will almost invariably have more value to their teams than relievers who are in the running for the CYA.

and this only really applied to so-called Closers. i don't think other relievers ever got much recognition.

TribeFanInNC · 01-21-2014, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

EDIT: Rats...Beaten by Tribe Fan In NC again.

2-for-2 today. My work here is done….

TribeFanInNC · 01-22-2014, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

....but the point remains starters who are in the running for the CYA will almost invariably have more value to their teams than relievers who are in the running for the CYA.

Sometimes I have to remind myself how true this is. To avoid work for a few more minutes, I revisited Eck's 1990 season, which was what I consider the best relief year in my lifetime (it's subjective, I know, maybe Gagne had more WAR, I'm ignoring Mike Marshall, yada yada).

He gave up 5 ER, 4 BB, and 2 HRs all season, not to mention like 5 H/9 and 9 K/9. That all added up to 3.3 WAR...which didn't even crack the top 10 in the AL for pitching WAR. Clemens had over 10 WAR that season. Heck, Steve Farr and Erik Hanson were more valuable in 1990.

le receveur · 01-22-2014, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

Sometimes I have to remind myself how true this is. To avoid work for a few more minutes, I revisited Eck's 1990 season, which was what I consider the best relief year in my lifetime (it's subjective, I know, maybe Gagne had more WAR, I'm ignoring Mike Marshall, yada yada).

He gave up 5 ER, 4 BB, and 2 HRs all season, not to mention like 5 H/9 and 9 K/9. That all added up to 3.3 WAR...which didn't even crack the top 10 in the AL for pitching WAR. Clemens had over 10 WAR that season. Heck, Steve Farr and Erik Hanson were more valuable in 1990.

most dominant relief year I have been aware in my lifetime has to be Mark Eichorn 1986. 7.4 rWAR, all in relief... pitched 157 innings. with an ERA+ of 246

BIG17EASY · 01-22-2014, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

most dominant relief year I have been aware in my lifetime has to be Mark Eichorn 1986. 7.4 rWAR, all in relief... pitched 157 innings. with an ERA+ of 246

I was going to look up his numbers because I knew he had a year when he pitched a ton of innings out of the pen. Glad you beat me to it and saved me the time, haha.

There was also Mike Marshall's Cy Young season in 1974 for the Dodgers. He went 15-12 with 21 saves while pitching 208.1 innings in 106 relief appearances.

TribeFanInNC · 01-22-2014, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

most dominant relief year I have been aware in my lifetime has to be Mark Eichorn 1986. 7.4 rWAR, all in relief... pitched 157 innings. with an ERA+ of 246

True enough. I guess I should have called it the most dominant modern closer year since the discussion was a comparison between closers and starters for Cy Young. Certainly guys from the 70s would have higher WARs under the same principle.

Your statement illustrates the same point though. Eichhorn pitched twice as many innings and his WAR is twice as high (roughly). In actuality, he would have been a better Cy Young candidate than Eckersley, who actually won one.

le receveur · 01-22-2014, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

I was going to look up his numbers because I knew he had a year when he pitched a ton of innings out of the pen. Glad you beat me to it and saved me the time, haha.

There was also Mike Marshall's Cy Young season in 1974 for the Dodgers. He went 15-12 with 21 saves while pitching 208.1 innings in 106 relief appearances.

I remember his expos days... but even that was only worth about 3-4 WAR according to BR

le receveur · 01-22-2014, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

True enough. I guess I should have called it the most dominant modern closer year since the discussion was a comparison between closers and starters for Cy Young. Certainly guys from the 70s would have higher WARs under the same principle.

Your statement illustrates the same point though. Eichhorn pitched twice as many innings and his WAR is twice as high (roughly). In actuality, he would have been a better Cy Young candidate than Eckersley, who actually won one.

I wasn't following Jays then, but have read on that year since. It just seems totally dominating. and being a MR it barely gets mentioned.

there was 2 more dominant starters that year, so he fairly did not deserve CY... be he should have gotten more recognition for it.. of course playing for Toronto in 86 probably didn't help...

David Watts · 01-22-2014, 10:44 AM

1973 John Hiller, 125 innings, 8.1 WAR, 283 ERA+ all in relief. Followed that up in 1974 with a strange year in which he won 17 game and lost 14 all in relief.

BIG17EASY · 01-22-2014, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le receveur

I remember his expos days... but even that was only worth about 3-4 WAR according to BR

Yeah, I think his B-R WAR for 1976 was 3.1. That shows why even WAR isn't a fool-proof statistic.

Ike348 · 01-22-2014, 11:38 AM

The problem with WAR is:

Say my closer Sanchez blew only 4 saves the entire year. The readily available replacement player blew 10 saves. Therefore, Sanchez "earned" 6 more wins than that replacement player, even though OOTP would probably put Sanchez's war at about 3.

JMDurron · 01-22-2014, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ike348

The problem with WAR is:

Say my closer Sanchez blew only 4 saves the entire year. The readily available replacement player blew 10 saves. Therefore, Sanchez "earned" 6 more wins than that replacement player, even though OOTP would probably put Sanchez's war at about 3.

That's not a problem with WAR, it's a problem with saves. If Sanchez blew 4 3-run saves where he entered with clean innings, while the available replacement player blew 10 saves, 8 of which were 1-run games where he entered with the tying run on 2nd with nobody out, then there's basically no discernable difference between the pitchers beyond the game states that were arbitrarily generated for them by their teammates.

BIG17EASY · 01-22-2014, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMDurron

That's not a problem with WAR, it's a problem with saves. If Sanchez blew 4 3-run saves where he entered with clean innings, while the available replacement player blew 10 saves, 8 of which were 1-run games where he entered with the tying run on 2nd with nobody out, then there's basically no discernable difference between the pitchers beyond the game states that were arbitrarily generated for them by their teammates.

Plus, that's not even how WAR works. It's not a comparison to the specific backup closer. It's a comparison to a hypothetical "replacement level" MLB player. Not to mention that WAR is a much more complicated mathematical equation than just "Player A blown saves minus Player B blown saves = WAR".

Ike348 · 01-22-2014, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Plus, that's not even how WAR works. It's not a comparison to the specific backup closer. It's a comparison to a hypothetical "replacement level" MLB player. Not to mention that WAR is a much more complicated mathematical equation than just "Player A blown saves minus Player B blown saves = WAR".

True but WAR stands for "wins above replacement player". If a readily available replacement player would have cost his team 6 more games than my close, than my closer would technically have 6 "wins above replacement". Of course, you can't actually assign a saves value to a replacement player.

BIG17EASY · 01-22-2014, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ike348

True but WAR stands for "wins above replacement player". If a readily available replacement player would have cost his team 6 more games than my close, than my closer would technically have 6 "wins above replacement". Of course, you can't actually assign a saves value to a replacement player.

Yes, it does stand for "Wins Above Replacement Player," but that does not mean the exact replacement player. In other words, if Derek Jeter gets hurt again, his WAR isn't calculated by comparing him to the guy who replaces him. It's a hypothetical "replacement player" that is supposed to be the average replacement player in all of baseball.

Here's how Baseball-Reference explains the idea of a replacement player in their formula: Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained - Baseball-Reference.com. Scroll down to where it says "The Concept Of A Replacement Player."

EDIT TO ADD: Not to mention that blowing a save doesn't equal a win in the WAR formula.

actionjackson · 01-22-2014, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ike348

True but WAR stands for "wins above replacement player". If a readily available replacement player would have cost his team 6 more games than my close, than my closer would technically have 6 "wins above replacement". Of course, you can't actually assign a saves value to a replacement player.

A save can be blown in any inning in any situation, and definitely not all save situations are created equally. That's why it's impossible to use saves in a WAR context. As an example look at Mark Eichhorn from 1986. 14-5, 1.72 ERA, 157.0 IP, 7.4 rWAR, but only 10/14 in save situations. His running mate Tom Henke had a slightly better save percentage at 27/35, and went 9-5, 3.35 ERA, 91.1 IP, but only 1.5 rWAR. Eichhorn was pitching earlier in the game and probably in the higher leverage situations, which is what led to a higher blown save rate, but clearly he was the more valuable pitcher. Henke's stuff is what led to his use as a closer, but hitters could not touch Eichhorn (at least not that year) and his funky sidearm delivery.

BIG17EASY · 01-22-2014, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

A save can be blown in any inning in any situation, and definitely not all save situations are created equally. That's why it's impossible to use saves in a WAR context. As an example look at Mark Eichhorn from 1986. 14-5, 1.72 ERA, 157.0 IP, 7.4 rWAR, but only 10/14 in save situations. His running mate Tom Henke had a slightly better save percentage at 27/35, and went 9-5, 3.35 ERA, 91.1 IP, but only 1.5 rWAR. Eichhorn was pitching earlier in the game and probably in the higher leverage situations, which is what led to a higher blown save rate, but clearly he was the more valuable pitcher. Henke's stuff is what led to his use as a closer, but hitters could not touch Eichhorn (at least not that year) and his funky sidearm delivery.

Right, this is extremely important. WAR is based heavily on runs, and for pitchers, runs allowed. Since a pitcher can blow a save while being perfect (enter with a one-run lead, runner on third, less than two outs, allow a sac fly and get all other batters faced out), you can see how a blown save has nothing to do with calculating WAR.

Matt Arnold · 01-22-2014, 03:36 PM

WAR is roughly speaking situation independant. It doesn't look at the fact that your closer only blew 4 saves and the replacement guy would have blown 10 - it looks that your reliever gave up 4 runs in 10 games, and the replacement would have given up 10 (for example).

Hence, reliever WAR is terrible. Kimbrel was worth 2.2 WAR last year, because he saved his team about 20 runs. But if those 20 runs came all in 1-run games, that's huge. That's why for relievers, if you want to see their value you have to base in their leverage, which is what a metric like WPA does. Now it has its drawbacks - if Kimbrel comes on with a 1 run lead, walks 3 guys, but gets out of the inning, it treats that the same as if he didn't walk anyone.

As for the initial question, honestly I don't think you could go wrong with either starter as the Cy Young winner. They both pitched great. And I'd definitely pick either of them over the closer, any day of the week.

01-22-2014, 10:44 AM	#31
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 10,139 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	1973 John Hiller, 125 innings, 8.1 WAR, 283 ERA+ all in relief. Followed that up in 1974 with a strange year in which he won 17 game and lost 14 all in relief.

01-22-2014, 03:36 PM	#40
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 16,241	WAR is roughly speaking situation independant. It doesn't look at the fact that your closer only blew 4 saves and the replacement guy would have blown 10 - it looks that your reliever gave up 4 runs in 10 games, and the replacement would have given up 10 (for example). Hence, reliever WAR is terrible. Kimbrel was worth 2.2 WAR last year, because he saved his team about 20 runs. But if those 20 runs came all in 1-run games, that's huge. That's why for relievers, if you want to see their value you have to base in their leverage, which is what a metric like WPA does. Now it has its drawbacks - if Kimbrel comes on with a 1 run lead, walks 3 guys, but gets out of the inning, it treats that the same as if he didn't walk anyone. As for the initial question, honestly I don't think you could go wrong with either starter as the Cy Young winner. They both pitched great. And I'd definitely pick either of them over the closer, any day of the week.