Orcin's Brave New World

[Tyke]

Yeah, welcome to the "bigs" Mr Orcin! I hope it's as positive an experience for you as your time in Louisville. And I hope Sal is able to find the right kind of premises close to the ballpark in St Louis. Are you bringing your own secretarial team with you? [i.e. Is Jennifer making the trip, also?]

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal can do statistical analysis. For example, Sal is 100% sure he received a lot more money to move to Louisville than it actually cost! But not enough money to purchase land at his preferred relocation site. Can you believe they wouldn't let Sal put his shop at the base of the arch? They told Sal to put it in the river. A floating barber shop? Now Sal must admit he hadn't thought of this. Sal's life has always been the topsy and the turvy, but Sal isn't sure he can take the constant movement. No, Sal has to look for dry ground.


Oh, do you think they meant something slightly different when they told Sal to put it in the river? Sal always assumed America's heartland was friendly. Keep that up, and these folks will learn the power of Sal's voodoo.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Tyke

Are you bringing your own secretarial team with you? [i.e. Is Jennifer making the trip, also?]

Jennifer didn't want to move, so she won't be coming along. It's just as well. The Cardinals HR department was already a little nervous about the rest of my posse.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Jennifer didn't want to move, so she won't be coming along. It's just as well. The Cardinals HR department was already a little nervous about the rest of my posse.

I guess this includes the guy with the assortment of left-handed axes?

[Orcin]

Budget and Finances

The Cardinals are a big market team with good fan loyalty. Bill Dewitt III is a charitable owner. The 2021 budget is $192 million, ranking third in MLB. The Cardinals had the #3 revenues and payroll in MLB last season (behind the Dodgers and Yankees). Mr. Dewitt took $18 million in profit, and I assume he is happy since he increased the budget.

Given such a large budget, I decided to be among the leaders in MLB in both scouting and player development expenses. It requires a huge ($20M) increase to get into the top five in both categories. I settled on $15M scouting and $18M player development, slightly more than the Yankees but less than the rebuilding Orioles and Tigers. Both figures are double the major league average. (Note: This diversion of funds away from payroll will somewhat neutralize the large market budget and charitable owner.)

The additional $20M in scouting/development spending quickly eliminated any budget surplus. The current estimate for 2021 player salaries is nearly $150 million (same as last year). My target is $140 million because I like to ignore playoff revenue and leave some slack in my budget, but I may not get down to that level this year or next. There is some work to do in sorting out the inherited contracts, and I want to “win now”.

In preparation for arbitration decisions and free agency, I will take an inventory of the player assets and build a road map for the 40-man roster. However, the first order of business is to hire a highly-experienced “win now” manager and coaching staff.


Personnel

I prioritized experience and ratings to select candidates. Offers were made quickly before the best candidates were hired by other clubs. All of my offers were accepted.

Manager: Joe Girardi (age 56) – was manager of the New York Yankees, fired after the 2020 season. Girardi has a record of 1227-1041 (.541) in his 14-year career.

Bench Coach: Joe McEwing (age 48) – was third base coach for the Chicago White Sox, fired with manager Robin Ventura after the 2020 season.

Pitching Coach: Dave Righetti (age 61) – was pitching coach of the San Francisco Giants for 21 years, fired after the 2020 season.

Hitting Coach: Lloyd McClendon (age 61) – was bench coach of the Texas Rangers, fired after the 2020 season. Prior to that, he had been a hitting coach for multiple teams.

Scout: Dan Kantrovitz (age 42) is signed for the 2021 season. He will be retained and considered for an extension.

[Westheim]

So, you've got those birds. And Girardi.

How exactly do you expect me to be able to root for you?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

So, you've got those birds. And Girardi.

How exactly do you expect me to be able to root for you?

Well, you can always just root against me.

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Well, you can always just root against me.

I am not sure anyone can truly root against you, not unless they want Sal making a voodoo doll of them.

I hope that hiring Girardi brings about some redemption for when the Cardinals fired Joe Torre and he went on to win 4 World Series with the Yankees. Maybe a little reversal is in order.

As a life long St. Louis fan I am excited to see if you can bring this club back to its roots of having one of the absolute best farm systems in the league. Take the money and keep it internal, even though with Louisville you did have a penchant for grabbing a top caliber free agent when the opportunity presented itself.

[TC Dale]

Will be following this as I play around with my game, trying new leagues, (having not tried CBA I am tempted.) and this dynasty/storyline sounds very interesting! Thanks!

[Orcin]

One interesting side note... Everyone knows that the current crop of young Cardinals pitchers are the envy of baseball. There are a lot of quality arms there. I was surprised at how few of them amounted to anything in the simulation. I really expected to have Wacha and Miller, at least, as stars by 2021. Instead, they are trying to hang on as mid-rotation guys. Of course, it could go that way in real life too. Food for thought.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Analysis
As of November 2, 2020

Starting Pitchers
My owner thinks that the Cardinals have a slight weakness in the rotation. He’s right. There are a number of good pitchers on this staff, but no ace. This is a major reason that the team has been good in the regular season, but cannot get past the Dodgers in the post-season. In my opinion, the franchise has too much of its payroll invested in position players as opposed to starting pitchers. Fortunately, many of the current pitchers are on expiring contracts so dollars can easily be re-allocated for 2022. The task is to identify the keepers and put together the best possible rotation for 2021.

Michael Pineda (age 32, throws R) – 2020 stats: 17-7, 3.84, 32 GS, 218 IP
He was signed as a free agent to a three-year contract at $6.7M per year prior to the 2020 season (so two years remaining). Pineda is a very good pitcher, but not an ace. His three pitches are all rated 70 and his control is very good, but he is a fly ball pitcher with average movement so he gives up a lot of home runs.

Kyle Hald (age 32, throws L) – 2020 stats: 17-6, 3.60, 31 GS, 202 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2011 (round 18). He is signed for 2021 at $6.5M, after which he will be eligible for free agency. Hald is a crafty groundball pitcher that changes speed effectively. His control is average. He is a steady mid-rotation pitcher.

Michael Wacha (age 30, throws R) – 2020 stats: 12-11, 4.22, 36 G, 28 GS, 203 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2012 (round 1). He is signed for 2021 at $5.5M, after which he will be eligible for free agency. Wacha is above-average across the board with a very good curveball and change. He looks like a good mid-rotation pitcher.

Luis Perdomo (age 28, throws R) – 2020 stats: 11-9, 3.18, 33 G, 28 GS, 195 IP
He was signed as a minor league free agent and developed in the Cardinals system. He is signed for 2021 at $4M, after which he will be eligible for free agency. Perdomo has four plus pitches and good control. His stamina is average. He might still get better.

Brett Marshall (age 31, throws R) – 2020 stats: 10-14, 4.51, 38 G, 25 GS, 176 IP
He was signed as a free agent to a three-year contract at $8M per year prior to the 2020 season (so two years remaining). This was a stupid contract. Marshall is a very ordinary pitcher with a career mark of 70-78 and a 4.79 ERA. He is a fifth starter at best.

Trevor Rosenthal (age 31, throws R) – 2020 stats: 1-1, 1.74, 19 G, 31 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2009 (round 21). He is currently unsigned because his option at $8.5M for 2021 was voided with a $1M buyout. Rosenthal looked ready for stardom after going 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 2016. He signed a long-term contract and promptly declined to 8-15 with a 4.48 ERA in 2017. He has spent the last three unhappy seasons in the bullpen. I would like to bring him back at a lower salary as a fifth starter. I have a hunch about him making a comeback, or he could end up as a good setup man.

John Lamb (age 31, throws L) – 2020 stats: 3-3, 4.20, 33 G, 40 IP
He was acquired by the Cardinals via trade in 2014. He is signed for 2021 at $3.2M, after which he will be eligible for free agency. He is out of options. Lamb is another pitcher that inexplicably fell out of favor with the previous regime and was exiled to the bullpen early in his career. I would like to see more of him before making a decision.

Tyrell Jenkins (age 28, throws R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 7-11, 4.97, 27 GS, 175 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2010 (round 1). He is arbitration eligible with an estimate of $1.1M. He is out of options. Jenkins is mostly average with a plus fastball, good changeup, and high GB%. My scout doesn’t like him. He has to make the team in a bullpen role or clear waivers coming out of spring training.

Carlos Salazar (age 26, throws R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 12-12, 5.69, 27 GS, 161 IP
He was obtained via trade in 2014 and developed in the Cardinals system. He is out of options. He is under club control for five more years. Salazar throws really hard, but his movement and control are average. He has three plus pitches, but he doesn’t work hard enough to make himself better. Like Jenkins, he must earn a spot or clear waivers.

Jordan Sheffield (age 26, throws R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 8-7, 5.32, 21 GS, 140 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 2). He is under club control for five more years and out of options. Sheffield is yet another average starter in a sea of mediocrity. I have nothing else to say about Sheffield except that he is expendable.

Jose Flores (age 26, throws L) – 2020 stats: 3-1, 2.22, 41 G, 65 IP
He was drafted by the Royals in 2016 (round 1, 7th overall). The Cardinals acquired him via trade in 2017. He is under club control for five more seasons. Flores could someday emerge as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He throws 93-95 mph, keeps the ball down, has very good control, and his intangibles are outstanding. He has two options remaining and really needs another year (or at least part of one) in the AAA rotation. He spent last season in the major league bullpen; otherwise, he might be ready for the rotation now.

Our only top 100 prospect is a starting pitcher: Gerald Thompson (age 22, throws R). He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2019 (round 1). He is not on the 40-man roster. He could pair with Flores at the top of the rotation in a year or two. He was rushed through the system and is currently on the AAA roster. He was 9-8 with a 5.02 ERA in 30 starts at AA Springfield last season. Normally, I would have him start at AA again this season, but he looks ready for AAA according to my scouts.

Conclusion: I would like to trade Marshall and keep the rest for next season. I won’t be terribly upset if some of the lesser candidates don’t clear waivers. I prefer that my AAA rotation be filled with prospects, and I would normally carry only eight or nine starting pitchers on the 40-man roster (not eleven). However, injuries or surprise development might make some of these pitchers more attractive next spring.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Analysis
As of November 2, 2020

Relief Pitchers
Keep in mind when reviewing the low inning totals that the 2020 Cardinals bullpen was primarily manned by excess starters. We have a solid closer but I would like to identify at least three other pitchers that will be dependable full-time relievers.

Rex Brothers (aqe 33, throws L) – 2020 stats: 5-3, 2.59, 36/38 saves, 63 G, 63 IP
He was signed as a free agent to a three-year contract at $8.6M per year prior to the 2020 season (so two years remaining but 2022 is a player option). He is not overpaid for his ability, and a contender needs a top closer. I won’t worry about the 9th inning.

Alex Reyes (age 26, throws R) – 2020 stats: 12-8, 3.48, 40 G, 18 GS, 155 IP
He was signed as an international free agent in 2012 and developed in the Cardinals system. He will be eligible for arbitration for the first time next season, and he is out of options. Reyes is a swing man that fits best as a reliever. He has a plus fastball but his other pitches are average. He keeps the ball down and generates 65% ground balls.

Shelby Miller (age 30, throws R) – 2020 stats: 0-0, 2.52, 17 G, 25 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2009 (round 1). He is signed for 2021 at $4.5M, after which he will be eligible for free agency. Miller is another former starter, like Rosenthal and Lamb, banished to the bullpen after a 13-6 season in 2018. He has a poor third pitch and is probably better suited to a bullpen role at this stage of his career.

Pascal Moreno (age 27, throws L) – 2020 stats at AAA: 10-2, 4.59, 51 G, 69 IP, 66 K
He was acquired via trade in 2015 and developed in the Cardinals system. He is under club control for five more years. He is out of options, so he must make the team or clear waivers. Moreno seemed to be developing into a solid reliever before regressing last year. He might have been under-challenged at AAA and just needs to be in the majors.

Mark Lawrence (age 29, throws R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 1-0, 4.75, 22 G, 47 IP
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 (round 7). He has two minor league options remaining. Lawrence is a failed starter that is trying to make it with completely average stuff, movement, control, and pitches. His best asset is the two minor league options.

Josh Spence (age 33, throws L) – 2020 stats: 0-0, 1.72, 7 G 15 IP
He was signed to a minor league contract before the 2020 season and ended up on the roster. He is out of options. He is arbitration eligible with an estimate of $750K but will probably be non-tendered. Spence is barely above average for his career, but maybe he will find his niche late in life as a lefty specialist. I am just not impressed.

Conclusion: The Cardinals actually had a very good bullpen in 2020, primarily due to Brothers, Reyes, and Flores. I want Flores to be a starter in AAA, so I have to find a group to bridge the gap from the starters to Brothers.

[Orcin]

Back to my point from two posts earlier... I can take some issue with the development of the Cardinals pitchers by the AI. It seems that there was never a set rotation. Perhaps there were too many equally-skilled pitchers and the AI just couldn't much up its "mind". More than once, a pitcher had a good season as a starter, only to spend the next few years as a part-time pitcher. I just find that odd, and thought it was worth pointing out.

[gehrig38]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Back to my point from two posts earlier... I can take some issue with the development of the Cardinals pitchers by the AI. It seems that there was never a set rotation. Perhaps there were too many equally-skilled pitchers and the AI just couldn't much up its "mind". More than once, a pitcher had a good season as a starter, only to spend the next few years as a part-time pitcher. I just find that odd, and thought it was worth pointing out.

It's an AI flaw. I had a 2 time back to back Koufax winner get put into the pen as the closer in season 3...
No logic and it's happened more than once

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Analysis
As of November 2, 2020
Position Players (part 1)

The Cardinals led all of baseball with 815 runs scored last season. In the National league, they were #2 in batting average, #4 in home runs, and #6 in stolen bases. They were also #2 in defensive efficiency. The only weak spot was their 17-23 record vs. left-handers (a familiar problem for me). The lineup is decidedly left-handed, and could use another solid right-handed hitter.

Catchers

Jorge Alfaro (age 28, bats R) – 2020 stats: 146G, .282-38-112 (MLB #2 @ catcher)
He was acquired from Texas via trade in 2014 (for Matt Carpenter). He is signed for 2021 at $7.5M, after which he will be eligible for arbitration for the final time with an estimate of $9M. Alfaro is an All-Star (2019 and 2020) from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. He has exceptional power (75) and a cannon arm (75). He bats cleanup and is perfect there. A long-term contract extension for Alfaro is a top priority.

Steve Bean (age 27, bats L) – 2020 stats: 24G, .270-3-7
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2012 (round 1). He is signed for 2021 at $1.8M with two arbitration years remaining. Bean is an outstanding defensive catcher, but his hitting keeps him from being a regular player. He is an adequate backup.

Logan Ice (age 26, bats S) – 2020 stats at AAA: 82G, .256-10-54
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 16). He is under club control for five more years with two options remaining. You want a guy with a name like Logan Ice to be a much better player than he is. He has a great glove, but no bat.

First Base

Matt Snyder (age 31, bats L) – 2020 stats: 135G, .275-19-70 (MLB #17 @ 1B)
He was acquired via trade in 2015. He is signed for 2021 at a fair $7M, after which he will become a free agent. Snyder is a tick above average as a hitter with decent power and quite adequate defensively. He doesn’t miss work. His intangibles are good. I am not sure that he is a good fit for this team, because we have one too many LH hitters.

Matt Adams (age 32, bats L) – 2020 stats: 6G, 6 AB, .333-0-1
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2009 (round 23). He is signed for 2020 at $950K and has one more year of arbitration eligibility at a $1M estimate. Mozeliak and Matheny feuded over this guy. Mozeliak kept him on the active roster all season (no injuries). Matheny gave him 6 at bats, then Mozeliak gave him a new contract. (Good grief!) Contact and eye are below average and he is a liability in the field. Matheny was right.

Second Base

Kolten Wong (age 31, bats L) – 2020 stats: 135G, .275-19-70 (MLB #10 @ 2B)
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2011 (round 1). He is signed for 2021 at $10M, after which he will become a free agent. Wong is a scouting enigma. Wong misses about 4-6 weeks per year with various injuries, yet his injury rating is normal. He grades out with below-average power and eye, yet he is described as an “elite offensive force”. He is rated to have a platoon disadvantage, yet he hits lefties almost as well as right-handers. So I reserve the right to be skeptical when my scout grades his potential less than his overall, i.e. tells me he is going to decline. Fortunately, I can ante my $10M and see a year of performance before I go all in on a new contract.

Joshua Lopez (age 25, bats R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 89G, .248-6-45
He was discovered in Venezuela in 2012 and developed in the Cardinals system. He is under club control for five more years. Lopez is a below average hitter with an average glove who only plays one position. He is wasting a roster spot that could be filled by a real utility infielder.

Third Base

Trey Michalczewski (age 26, bats S) – 2020 stats: 154G, .273-13-65 (MLB #4 @ 3B)
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 8). He is signed for 2021 at $7.2M, after which he will be eligible for arbitration for the final time with an estimate of $8.7M. Michalczewski (pronounced MICK-el-CHEF-ski) is called “T-Mick” around the clubhouse (and in this report from now on). T-Mick was used as the DH in 60 games and played another 60 games at 2B while Wong was either on the D/L or benched vs. a left-hander. He hits left-handers well which makes him a good right-handed batter for my purposes. His defense is very good except his range is below average. He is a consistent and very versatile 3-4 WAR player with good intangibles. He is also really popular with the fans.

Ryder Jones (age 26, bats R) – 2020 stats: 132G, .282-21-87
He was signed to a one-year “build value” contract as a free agent in March 2020 for $612K after a poor 2019 with the Orioles. He built value. He is going to arbitration for the first time with a $4.6M estimate (probably low). He is a power hitter with the potential to produce runs in the lower middle of the order. His defense is about equal to T-Mick (which is good) but he only plays third base so his value as a bench player is limited.

I am thinking of converting one of these players to first base in spring training, which would allow me to trade Snyder. T-Mick would be the best choice, because he has a higher work ethic and will learn the position faster. Jones has a stronger arm and is a more of a conventional third baseman. Both are 6’3” so height isn’t a factor.

Shortstop

J.P. Crawford (age 26, bats L) – 2020 stats: 155 G, .295-22-83 (MLB #1 @ SS)
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 1, #20 overall). He is signed for next year at $8M, and has two more years of arbitration eligibility with an estimate of $10M. Crawford is elite in almost every aspect of his game, including speed and defense (Gold Glove in 2018). His intangibles make him a team leader. He missed two months with a sprained ankle in 2019 and got a reputation for being injury-prone, but he played over 150 games in 2018 and 2020. A contract extension for him is also a top priority.

Gilbert Griffin (age 28, bats R) – 2020 stats: 42G, .220-5-17
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 (round 2). He is under club control for four more years and has one option remaining. Griffin is currently on the 60-day disabled list with a broken bone in his elbow, but he should be ready for spring training. He is below average offensively and slightly above average on defense.

Alex Mejia (age 30, bats R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 54G, .319-6-27; at STL: 38G, .202
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2012 (round 4). He is under club control for five more years and out of options. Mejia has an unremarkable resume: below-average hitting ability, average defensively, below-average runner, not versatile.

Conclusion: Assuming that T-Mick can convert to first base, my catcher and infield are set. My bench could use some work. Snyder might be a good asset to trade, but he is also a good bat to bring off the bench and provide injury insurance (because T-Mick can play any of the other infield spots).

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Analysis
As of November 2, 2020
Position Players (part 2)

Left Field

Dutch Deol (age 28, bats R) – 2020 stats: 139G, .233-11-61
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2011 (round 17). He is signed for next year at $5M, and has two more years of arbitration eligibility with an estimate of $6M. Deol won a Gold Glove award in left field in 2019 and could win it again in 2020. He has power and draws walks, but he strikes out 150 times a year. He would be a solid player IF he could cut down the strikeouts and hit .260 but he has never come close to that mark.

Min-Zhong You (age 30, bats R) – 2020 stats at AAA: 62G, .283-16-37
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 3). He is a super-2 arbitration candidate with an estimate of $750K, and he is out of options. You is a lesser version of Deol and a decent backup for him. He has much better speed and can serve as a pinch-runner as well as a right-handed power bat off the bench. His intangibles are excellent.

Center Field

Jackie Bradley Jr. (age 31, bats L) – 2020 stats: 102G, .271-6-38 (MLB #7 @ CF)
He was signed as a free agent to a four-year contract at $16M per year prior to the 2020 season (so three years remaining). Bradley is a good everyday player with offensive ability and great intangibles. He has exceptional defensive skills and has 2 Gold Glove awards in center field. However, he is injury-prone and has missed significant chunks of time over the past three seasons. The injury history and a $48M price tag will make him hard to trade. I could keep him and enjoy his healthy days over the next three years, but he is also the logical player to move in order to create salary room for an ace pitcher. A solid backup center fielder becomes a priority in either scenario.

Josh Adams (age 26, bats L) – 2020 stats at AAA: 81G, .207-5-19
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 (round 4). He is under club control for five more years and has two options remaining. Adams is not the player to replace, or even backup, Bradley. He doesn’t have the skills to be a major league center fielder.

Right Field

Oscar Taveras (age 29, bats L) – 2020 stats: 158G, .321-26-116 (MLB #2 @ RF)
Taveras was signed as an international free agent in 2009 at age 16 and developed in the Cardinals system. His current contract at $16M ends in 2021, after which he will become a free agent. Taveras is the likely 2020 N.L. MVP and one of the best players in baseball. He has four batting titles (three in a row) and four All-Star selections. He won a Gold Glove in right field in 2014. He would have more Gold Gloves except Matheny has played him out of position in center field for much of his career. At his age, it is time to leave him in right field on a full-time basis, especially if a healthy Bradley is available. It goes without saying that he must be signed to a contract extension. He is THE top priority because he can become a free agent, unlike Alfaro and Crawford who are still under club control. This is literally a Pujols situation except that Taveras is not greedy.

Brian Billigen (age 31, bats L) – 2020 stats: 81G, .255-10-34
He was acquired via trade prior to the 2020 season. He is arbitration eligible with an estimate of $5M, and will have one more year of eligibility before reaching free agency. Billigen is an average major league player. He had one good season (2017 with SF) but has been a backup for most of his career. He is totally unremarkable and is a perfect example of why the payroll is ballooning. His spot should be taken by a younger player. He will be non-tendered if I cannot trade him first.

K.J. Woods (age 26, bats L) – 2020 stats at AAA: 75G, .257-14-37
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 (round 6). He is under club control for five more years and is out of options. Woods is basically the same player as Billigen, plus he can play first base. He isn’t a long-term answer as a fourth outfielder, but he is a lot cheaper than Billigen.

Designated Hitter

Tarou Sano (age 27, bats L) – 2020 stats at AAA: 129 G, .267-30-85 (MLB #6 @ LF)
He was “discovered” in Japan in 2016 and developed in the Cardinals system. He is under club control for five more years and has three options remaining. The name Tarou means “thick son” in Japanese and Sano fits the bill at 6’4” and 230 pounds. He is a game-changing elite offensive player with explosive power. He is limited defensively in the outfield, and he also plays a poor first base. He is not likely to improve at either position because his work ethic is terrible. Thus, he is the perfect full-time designated hitter IF he can hit left-handed pitching. We will find out next season because he will be in the lineup every day. He could become the perfect protection for Taveras and Alfaro.

Victor Sharp (age 25, bats L) – 2020 stats at AAA: 98G, .299-14-56
He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2016 (round 2). He is under club control for five more years and has two options remaining. Sharp is developing into a nice corner outfielder with above-average power and speed. He is extremely smart and a very hard worker. His contact and eye are holding him back and his defense in the outfield is below average. He is a perfect backup for Sano at DH while continuing to develop his defensive skills at AAA.

Conclusion: The outfield and DH spots are pretty well set, but I desperately need a fourth outfielder that can play center field.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Analysis
As of November 2, 2020

General Impressions

I am happy to see so many system-developed players on the 40-man roster, and I want to continue that trend. Of course, I always hope for better players and especially more starting pitcher stars, but it tells me that the scout (Dan Kantrovitz) is doing his job.

The pitching is weak, and I suspect they over-achieved last year. If I could find a way to add an ace pitcher, I would do it and absorb the extra salary somehow. I will also be on the lookout for a quality setup man and a lefty specialist that don’t break the bank.

Many of the players with expiring contracts will not discuss a new deal until contracts roll over (end of November). I need to keep enough room available to offer extensions to them, so I must be cautious about chewing up future budget room before I get the priority players (especially Taveras) signed.




Action Items

• Sign a contract extension with Oscar Taveras
• Pursue an ace pitcher in free agency?
• Trade SP Brett Marshall (saves $8M per year)
• Trade (or non-tender) RF Brian Billigen (saves $5M per year)
• Offer contract to SP Trevor Rosenthal (adds $3.5M per year)
• Acquire/sign veteran middle infielder for the bench
• Acquire quality fourth outfielder that bats left and can play center field
• Add bullpen depth (dedicated relievers as opposed to excess starters)

[deandean1998]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Bench Coach: Joe McEwing (age 48) – was third base coach for the Chicago White Sox, fired with manager Robin Ventura after the 2020 season.

Pitching Coach: Dave Righetti (age 61) – was pitching coach of the San Francisco Giants for 21 years, fired after the 2020 season.

Could you have less of a scrappy team?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by deandean1998

Could you have less of a scrappy team?

"Scrappy" was not among my priorities, but I didn't rule it out either.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals News – November 2020

Cardinals Trade Marshall to Red Sox for CF Vance Knox
Three birds were killed with one stone via this trade with the Boston Red Sox.
• Acquire quality fourth outfielder that bats left and can play center field
• Trade SP Brett Marshall (saves $8M per year)
• Trade (or non-tender) RF Brian Billigen (saves $5M per year)



Boston really wanted Marshall and the other two players were throw-ins. Knox plays all of the outfield positions very well, and can also play first base. He hits for power, works the count, runs well, and draws some walks. The bad news is he doesn’t hit for average and strikes out a lot. He is basically a versatile left-handed version of Deol. Knox is a super-2 arbitration case with an estimate of $800K, so we save a ton of money.

Cardinals Avoid Arbitration with Two Players
The Cardinals signed 3B Ryder Jones to a one-year contract at $4.8M ($200K above the estimate) and thus avoided arbitration. LF Min-Zhong You also signed a one-year contract at $800K.

Cardinals Agree to Contract Extension for Rosenthal
St. Louis signed SP Trevor Rosenthal to a three-year contract at $3.5M per year. The final year of the deal is a team option with a $500K buyout. Rosenthal is expected to compete for the fifth starter job recently opened by the trade of Brett Marshall to Boston.

Cardinals Settle Pending Arbitration Cases
The Cardinals agreed to one-year contracts with the final two players on their arbitration list. Pitcher Tyrell Jenkins received $1.1M and new CF Vance Knox accepted $900K. Reliever Josh Spence was notified that he would not be tendered an offer.

Gold Glove Awards
St. Louis shortstop J.P. Crawford received a Gold Glove award for 2020. Crawford handled 656 chances with only four errors. It is his second Gold Glove.


MLB News – November 2020

• The owners agreed to increase the minimum salary to $500,000 for next season.
• Former St. Louis manager Mike Matheny was hired to manage the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• Boston hired former St. Louis GM John Mozeliak as their scouting director.