Adam Dunn to Houston looks likely - Page 2

JDOldSchool · 07-05-2005, 07:18 PM

The Astros are immediately the Wild Card favorites in my opinion if they get Dunn. Of course, there's only a handful of players I'd take over Dunn in all of baseball...and perhaps no other player I'd take if I'm starting a team from scratch. Maybe ARod just because of his production and position. Pujols is great, but lots of 1Bs put up comparable numbers. Do I like Adam Dunn too much?

mlyons · 07-05-2005, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

The Astros are immediately the Wild Card favorites in my opinion if they get Dunn. Of course, there's only a handful of players I'd take over Dunn in all of baseball...and perhaps no other player I'd take if I'm starting a team from scratch. Maybe ARod just because of his production and position. Pujols is great, but lots of 1Bs put up comparable numbers. Do I like Adam Dunn too much?

Probably. I'd take Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, or Miguel Cabrera before Dunn if I was starting from scratch.

JDOldSchool · 07-05-2005, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Probably. I'd take Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, or Miguel Cabrera before Dunn if I was starting from scratch.

Tejada is having a career year. I doubt he gets much better. I can't justify a 29 year old with a .338 career OBP as my #1 guy. Brian Roberts has been ridiculous this season, but again, he's gonna have to do it for a little longer for me to believe it. If he is for real, well, he's a top 10 offensive player in baseball. And you might have me on Cabrera. Can I have both?

Joshv02 · 07-05-2005, 07:33 PM

Yeah, but to compare a middle IFer to a 1B/corner OFer with a 150 OPS+, you really only need average to moderate defense and about a 125 OBPS+. I figure Miggy is about equal in value to Dunn, but it is just a guess.

Astros33Resurrected · 07-05-2005, 07:35 PM

The stros need to get him!

mlyons · 07-05-2005, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

Tejada is having a career year. I doubt he gets much better. I can't justify a 29 year old with a .338 career OBP as my #1 guy. Brian Roberts has been ridiculous this season, but again, he's gonna have to do it for a little longer for me to believe it. If he is for real, well, he's a top 10 offensive player in baseball. And you might have me on Cabrera. Can I have both?

With Tejada and Roberts, my argument has as much to do with positional scarcity as it does with their incredible 2005's. As for career years, I think it's pretty damn reasonable to expect that a 29-year-old with an excellent work ethic continue to improve. If he were 32, that might be another story, but he's been improving fairly steadily (with a slight blip in 2003) every season, with no sign of having reached a plateau yet.

nate7891 · 07-05-2005, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Astros02

I highly doubt this will happen.

and why do you highly doubt this will happen?

JDOldSchool · 07-05-2005, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

As for career years, I think it's pretty damn reasonable to expect that a 29-year-old with an excellent work ethic continue to improve. If he were 32, that might be another story, but he's been improving fairly steadily (with a slight blip in 2003) every season, with no sign of having reached a plateau yet.

Except a player's peak years are normally between 26-29. History says Tejada is likely to start his decline now, even if that decline is gradual. At the very least, this is the best we're going to see from him. Of course, if he keeps up 2005 numbers for the next 3 years then he's without a doubt a top 5 offensive player. I just don't think he will, even in Baltimore.

I agree with you on the positions. Roberts and Tejada are the elite of rather weak positions. I'd much rather miss out on Dunn and get stuck with Carlos Lee than miss out on Tejada and get Omar Vizquel (who is having a solid year, but... yeah).

mlyons · 07-05-2005, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

Except a player's peak years are normally between 26-29.

I've always thought top players peaked between 28-32. I don't know why I think that, though. If you're right, then I'd back off Tejada a bit. Does anyone have any statistical evidence one way or another?

nate7891 · 07-05-2005, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammer755

Well, "looks likely" actually means "rumored on several message boards", which is pretty far from anything meaningful. I know the Reds' front office is dumb, but can they possibly be this dumb? Unfortunately for their fans, I know the answer is yes.

looks likely means tim kirkjin reported it and its been reported on houston tv and a couple websites (NOT message boards)

Mike D · 07-05-2005, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nate7891

looks likely means tim kirkjin

Who is Tim Kirkjin? Who does he work for?

mlyons · 07-05-2005, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike D

Who is Tim Kirkjin? Who does he work for?

I think he means ESPN's Tim Kurkjian.

cshigh · 07-05-2005, 08:29 PM

A couple of things about Adam Dunn that makes him available to trade:

1. He is due to make about 9 million dollars next year due to arbitration. Reds would have him and Griffey (about 12-13 mil) to pay. Very doubtful that the Reds will pay both, and Dunn would be a better value for other teams based on his age.

2. Dunn's weaknesses: defense is atrocious, and offensively he seems to be more passive with runners in scoring position. OPS is nice, but he needs to drive in runs.

CMH · 07-05-2005, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

The Astros are immediately the Wild Card favorites in my opinion if they get Dunn. Of course, there's only a handful of players I'd take over Dunn in all of baseball...and perhaps no other player I'd take if I'm starting a team from scratch. Maybe ARod just because of his production and position. Pujols is great, but lots of 1Bs put up comparable numbers. Do I like Adam Dunn too much?

I don't know. Something about Pujols gives me the impression he'll be as good as he is for the rest of his career. I can't name many firstbasemen that have produced throughout their entire careers (or at least for some time after their prime). Even Frank Thomas had some down years.

cinredsfan2000 · 07-05-2005, 08:33 PM

I for one am totally against this trade .Yeah the reds need help but to Trade possibly there best player right now would be awful for Reds fans .As it is i think O'brien is a idiot . Trading away there best young player makes little sense.To bad o'brien wasnt a little smarter in choosing the players he decides to sign. Did he do anything in texas when he was g.m. ? he want responsible for the A-rod deal was he ?

cshigh · 07-05-2005, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cinredsfan2000

I for one am totally against this trade .Yeah the reds need help but to Trade possibly there best player right now would be awful for Reds fans .As it is i think O'brien is a idiot . Trading away there best young player makes little sense.To bad o'brien wasnt a little smarter in choosing the players he decides to sign. Did he do anything in texas when he was g.m. ? he want responsible for the A-rod deal was he ?

Lopez is their best player right now, with Griffey or Randa right behind.

wildcat000 · 07-05-2005, 09:14 PM

Being a Reds fan, I agree with you all that the Front Office just about thinks they are running a girl scout troop, and not a MLB baseball team. They need to trade some guys, but not Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is a bat in the lineup that they need, with Junior surging, and the Yankees needing CF, I think they could deal Junior, but they won't get much in return. I know its a little crazy talk, but what George Steinbrenner wants, George Steinbrenner gets. It would be a blessing to just get rid of his contract, lets face it, he's not exactly drawing fans into the ballpark like he did in Seattle.

cinredsfan2000 · 07-05-2005, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cshigh

Lopez is their best player right now, with Griffey or Randa right behind.

True lopez is a all star reserve and griffey's having a solid year so far baring injury.Randa has been a nice suprise.Still offense hasnt been a real problem in cincy .Milton and the pitching staff have been horrible for the most part . But Harrang has shown some flashes as has Claussen. Both have shown up Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz .

Jason Moyer · 07-05-2005, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cshigh

Lopez is their best player right now, with Griffey or Randa right behind.

WARP3:

Dunn 5.4
Randa 4.8
Lopez 4.3
Griffey 4.0

TonyJ · 07-05-2005, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

WARP3:

Dunn 5.4
Randa 4.8
Lopez 4.3
Griffey 4.0

wrap is **** dun suk on defanse and strik eout to much

07-05-2005, 07:33 PM	#24
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Yeah, but to compare a middle IFer to a 1B/corner OFer with a 150 OPS+, you really only need average to moderate defense and about a 125 OBPS+. I figure Miggy is about equal in value to Dunn, but it is just a guess. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

07-05-2005, 07:18 PM	#21
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	The Astros are immediately the Wild Card favorites in my opinion if they get Dunn. Of course, there's only a handful of players I'd take over Dunn in all of baseball...and perhaps no other player I'd take if I'm starting a team from scratch. Maybe ARod just because of his production and position. Pujols is great, but lots of 1Bs put up comparable numbers. Do I like Adam Dunn too much?

07-05-2005, 07:35 PM	#25
Astros33Resurrected Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Lufkin, TX Posts: 2,213	The stros need to get him!

07-05-2005, 08:29 PM	#33
cshigh All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Ludlow, KY Posts: 508	A couple of things about Adam Dunn that makes him available to trade: 1. He is due to make about 9 million dollars next year due to arbitration. Reds would have him and Griffey (about 12-13 mil) to pay. Very doubtful that the Reds will pay both, and Dunn would be a better value for other teams based on his age. 2. Dunn's weaknesses: defense is atrocious, and offensively he seems to be more passive with runners in scoring position. OPS is nice, but he needs to drive in runs.

07-05-2005, 09:14 PM	#37
wildcat000 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 143	Being a Reds fan, I agree with you all that the Front Office just about thinks they are running a girl scout troop, and not a MLB baseball team. They need to trade some guys, but not Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is a bat in the lineup that they need, with Junior surging, and the Yankees needing CF, I think they could deal Junior, but they won't get much in return. I know its a little crazy talk, but what George Steinbrenner wants, George Steinbrenner gets. It would be a blessing to just get rid of his contract, lets face it, he's not exactly drawing fans into the ballpark like he did in Seattle.