Oakland A's 2005 season official thread - Page 18

Skipaway · 06-23-2005, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

You make that sound like a good thing...

No I am not making it sound like a good thing. I am simply saying mathmatically they don't have to win more than .700 because teams interact. They don't create wins in vacuum.

johnnyshaka · 06-23-2005, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

No I am not making it sound like a good thing. I am simply saying mathmatically they don't have to win more than .700 because teams interact. They don't create wins in vacuum.

That's great that teams interact...whatever that means...but, if the A's split the season series with the Angels (trend over the last three years...give or take a game) which is being pretty generous, then where does that leave us?? Hmmm...maybe 10 games behind the division leading Angels with 78 games to go. But, the way things have gone this year with how we're playing and how the Angels are playing, the likelihood of splitting the rest of the games is probably reaching a bit and we should expect to be on the short end of the stick...so, after the 13 games we'd probably be more like 12 or 13 games back with 78 games to go. Hmmm...now how well do we have to play...keeping in mind that the "interaction" with the Angels is not a factor any longer?? Probably right around .700, right??

Skipaway · 06-23-2005, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

That's great that teams interact...whatever that means...but, if the A's split the season series with the Angels (trend over the last three years...give or take a game) which is being pretty generous, then where does that leave us?? Hmmm...maybe 10 games behind the division leading Angels with 78 games to go. But, the way things have gone this year with how we're playing and how the Angels are playing, the likelihood of splitting the rest of the games is probably reaching a bit and we should expect to be on the short end of the stick...so, after the 13 games we'd probably be more like 12 or 13 games back with 78 games to go. Hmmm...now how well do we have to play...keeping in mind that the "interaction" with the Angels is not a factor any longer?? Probably right around .700, right??

Right, and take that more than .700 record, combined with the split games with Angels, you'd come up with something less than .700 down the road.

johnnyshaka · 06-23-2005, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

Right, and take that more than .700 record, combined with the split games with Angels, you'd come up with something less than .700 down the road.

Sure...that's to get to your 92-95 wins...but, I think it's going to take more than 95 wins to win the division...so, guess you're right in your assumption and I'm right in my assumption.

Green & Gold Heart · 06-23-2005, 08:04 PM

Wow, how about that complete game shutout by Kirk Saarloos?! Nice job this series taking 3 out of 4 (should have been a sweep

). I think it's obvious we don't belong in last place.

JDOldSchool · 06-23-2005, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

Sure...that's to get to your 92-95 wins...but, I think it's going to take more than 95 wins to win the division...so, guess you're right in your assumption and I'm right in my assumption.

If the A's can play well against the Angels and the Rangers and Mariners hold their own against them the Angels don't win 90 games. I don't know why you give them so much respect. They're a good team, but they're worse than they were last year. Last year they won 92 games. Will the Angels go 50-41 the rest of the way? I highly doubt it. They won't with an offense that ranks 24th in baseball in On-Base Percentage. Their pitching has been the best in baseball so far. I'll be shocked if Colon, Washburn, Lackey, and Byrd all continue to have an ERA under 4.

Plus, nobody here said the A's are going to win the West. I said they will contend. To me, contending is being within 5 games in September (and the A's and Angels play 5 times in September). I definitely think they can gain 5 games in the next 2+ months.

Last night's game was really upsetting. It's nice to see Saarloos pitch like he does for me in MVP. Two months ago they would've gotten blown out after yesterday's heart breaker.

JDOldSchool · 06-23-2005, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

I think it's obvious we don't belong in last place.

And within a week, the A's won't be in last place anymore.

Skipaway · 06-23-2005, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

I think it's obvious we don't belong in last place.

That's much more about how Mariners suck than how good the A's are.

It's funny the Mariners hoped this series can saved them from a disappointing season just last week.

Green & Gold Heart · 06-23-2005, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

That's much more about how Mariners suck than how good the A's are.

Yeah, that's what I meant. The M's look more like a last-place team than the A's do.

johnnyshaka · 06-24-2005, 04:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

If the A's can play well against the Angels and the Rangers and Mariners hold their own against them the Angels don't win 90 games. I don't know why you give them so much respect. They're a good team, but they're worse than they were last year. Last year they won 92 games. Will the Angels go 50-41 the rest of the way? I highly doubt it. They won't with an offense that ranks 24th in baseball in On-Base Percentage. Their pitching has been the best in baseball so far. I'll be shocked if Colon, Washburn, Lackey, and Byrd all continue to have an ERA under 4.

Great pitching and a mediocre offense...hmmm...wonder where I've seen that before?? To me, that's a pretty good combo and will always put you in a great position to win the division. Have a look at the team stats for the last couple of years...you might notice a trend...a trend that we've been apart of.

And why exactly are the Angels not going to go 50-41 to close out the season?? Because they don't have a good on-base percentage...one that is a whopping 3 percentage points lower than ours?? Did you have a look at any other stats like slugging percentage (out slugging us by 40 points) and batting average (out hitting us by 15 points)?? Oh, and the pitching thing...they seem to be doing a fine job of that so far and I doubt it's a fluke seeing as their pitching staff has been damn good over the last five years...sometimes as good as ours. By the way, the secret to the Angels pitching is their stellar bullpen...it's rare to see them squander a lead and will always keep them in a game when it's close...something we struggled with last year and some of this year as well.

And one other thing...Vlad missed 18 games in May and June and the team went 10-8 during that stretch...the rest of the season they are 32-21...and Vlad is now back and in full swing...I expect them to be better in the second half...why wouldn't they be???

Again, I would love to see the A's to prove me wrong...believe me...and if they do somehow manage to be on the radar in September, then I'll gladly listen to all the "I told you so" comments. But, when it comes down to it, they are going to need a couple of small miracles and no more natural disasters to do what you say they'll do.

darkhorse · 06-24-2005, 02:55 PM

Clipped from today's edition of Prospectus Notebook at BB Pro.

We're not quite halfway through the year, but it seems reasonable to make another assessment of the Athletics' blockbuster trades this past off-season.

Code:

Braves VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Tim Hudson 17.3 Juan Cruz -13.3 Charles Thomas -7.8 Dan Meyer Minors* ---------------------------------------------- TOTALS 17.3 -21.1

Ouch. Last year, Juan Cruz had a 2.75 ERA in 72 innings pitched, with a 70/30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, before being sent down to Triple-A, Cruz had an 8.49 ERA in 23 1/3 IP with a K/BB of 27/19. The strikeout rate is still solid, but the walks are out of control; Cruz was getting slapped around to the tune of 11.2 hits per nine and letting them out of the park at a rate of 1.5 homers per nine.

Charles Thomas' .109/.255/.109 line earned him a CalTrain ticket to Triple-A Sacramento, as well. That's not a typo: Thomas had an OPS of 364 in 55 plate appearances. Thomas is definitely a better hitter than that, but let's not forget that in five minor-league seasons and 2,121 plate appearances Thomas compiled a less than outstanding .267/.345/.387 line; those averages include his flukish 2004 in Triple-A Richmond where he put together a half-season of .358/.416/.535 ball. Thomas shouldn't be 364 OPS bad, but neither is he as good as the 813 OPS he put up in a half-season with Atlanta last year.

Code:

Pirates/Indians VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Mark Redman 28.7 Jason Kendall -0.3 Arthur Rhodes 14.3 ------------------------------------------------ TOTALS 43.0 -0.3

OUCH! Jason Kendall has a career line of . 303/.384/.411, yet this year he is "hitting" just .255/.337/.295. Kendall has always been able to hit for average and at least a little bit of pop, but this year he's done neither. The complete lack of triples is at least partly due to McAfee Coliseum playing as a horrendous park for three-baggers (park factor of .652 since 2002). The batting average that's almost 50 points below his career level is inexplicable, though it does bear mentioning that Oakland as a team has the worst batting average in the AL (.251).

Mark Redman is pitching miles above his head. His 90th percentile PECOTA projection had him at a 3.57 ERA with 37.0 runs of VORP in 183 innings pitched. In just over half that playing time he's already accumulated almost 78% of the value. With only 4.84 K/9 in 2005, the thing keeping Redman afloat is his absurdly low .268 BABIP. Of the 58 NL pitchers with at least 70 IP, Redman is tied for seventh in lowest batting average on balls in play.

Arthur Rhodes has a low BABIP (.275), but he's also pitching really really well: 8.38 K/9, 1.24 BB/9, and most impressively, just 0.31 HR/9. Rhodes is looking more and more like the filthy set-up man he was from 2001-2002, which is exactly what Billy Beane thought he was getting when he signed the left-hander in 2004. Rhodes' year-by-year career record looks like another example of Voros McCracken's observation that even a full season of relief pitching is barely 1/4 to 1/3 the sample size of a full season of starting pitching; the results you see in such a small sample size can be incredibly misleading.

Code:

Cardinals VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Mark Mulder 8.1 Dan Haren 9.6 Kiko Calero -1.3 Daric Barton Minors ------------------------------------------------ TOTALS 8.1 8.3

Here's a fun experiment: Which pitcher would you prefer?

Code:

RA G IP H R ER HR BB SO SALARY Pitcher A 4.57 14 90.7 93 46 43 9 27 51 6,550,000 Pitcher B 4.83 15 95.0 88 51 42 8 32 73 323,500

The A's didn't like what they saw from Mark Mulder last year and decided to cut bait and run. It looks like their instincts were dead on. Kiko Calero was shelled in early outings this season, but much of that might have been due to his elbow tendinitis. Since returning from the DL at the beginning of the month Calero has had a 3.00 ERA with five strikeouts and just one walk in six innings. Only time will tell whether that's a small-sample-size blip or whether Calero has put things back together after a painful injury.

Even while recovering from an emergency appendectomy and bone chips in the elbow, super-prospect Daric Barton has shown strong skills at High-A Stockton. Barton is hitting .300/.425/.433 and improving as he does on-the-job training at first base. The elbow problems that forced him out from behind the plate at the beginning of the season have abated to the point where the Ports moved him to catcher the other night for his first inning behind the dish since 2004. More good news: just yesterday it was announced that Barton will help represent the U.S. squad at the Futures Game on July 10.

For the A's, the net deficit from those trades currently stands at 81.5 runs of VORP, or just over eight wins, which would be more than enough to put them back in the AL West race at this point in the season. Admittedly the team got younger, cheaper, and obtained two sparkling prospects in Barton and Dan Meyer, but the impact of those three big trades on the 2005 season is looking more and more depressing as the year unfolds.

Green & Gold Heart · 06-24-2005, 04:18 PM

I've said it before - it's unfair to analyze a trade that was obviously with the future in mind only 6 months after it was made.

With Hudson set to command a hefty salary after this season, it was time to make the deal. Cruz should be more valuable than he has shown. Meyer should definitely be more valuable than he has shown. Thomas is the wild card, but I really don't think he was ever considered a major part of this deal.

The Kendall deal was basically dumping two guys with little trade value at the time for a guy with a bad contract. But of course we expected Kendall to hit around .300 and he has disappointed.

Quote:

For the A's, the net deficit from those trades currently stands at 81.5 runs of VORP, or just over eight wins, which would be more than enough to put them back in the AL West race at this point in the season. Admittedly the team got younger, cheaper, and obtained two sparkling prospects in Barton and Dan Meyer, but the impact of those three big trades on the 2005 season is looking more and more depressing as the year unfolds.

2005? These trades were never made with 2005 in mind! If I was in the same situation in an OOTP league, I would have done the same thing.

The A's got rid of 3 starting pitchers making roughly $17 million together (Hudson, Mulder, Redman) and replaced them in the rotation with guys making the league minimum (Haren, Blanton, Saarloos). You're not expecting to get immediate results when you do that.

darkhorse · 06-24-2005, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

The A's got rid of 3 starting pitchers making roughly $17 million together (Hudson, Mulder, Redman) and replaced them in the rotation with guys making the league minimum (Haren, Blanton, Saarloos). [b]You're not expecting to get immediate results when you do that.[/b[

Billy Beane traded for major-league ready pitchers for good reason: He expects to win every year, including this one.

JDOldSchool · 06-24-2005, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Billy Beane traded for major-league ready pitchers for good reason: He expects to win every year, including this one.

Exactly. And I still think they can. Have people within the Oakland organization actually said they're looking to next year? Everyone assumes the A's will just give Kotsay to the Yankees, but I have a feeling most of these rumors are originating on the East Coast. If the A's get hot before the break, would anybody be surprised if Beane made some kind of move that actually helped them this year?

Green & Gold Heart · 06-24-2005, 10:06 PM

From Billy Beane's lips (Jan. 2005):

Quote:

I'm not going to go on record and say what is going to happen just because it's not a good idea even if you're the New York Yankees. But anyone who knows me knows that I've never given away a game or an inning in my life as a general manager. I'm excited about 2005. I'm even more excited about 2006. Despite this being a very difficult winter with the departures, it has also been one where when I look around the diamond, I look at Chavy and he's back next year, I look at Crosby and he's back next year, I can look at second base, they're back. I can look at catcher, he's back, I can look at the outfield, they're back. I look at the five projected starters and they're probably around another five years. The fact that we've laid a foundation excites me.

JDOldSchool · 06-25-2005, 01:46 AM

Based on that quote, it sounds to me like Beane has confidence in this group of players. If he has confidence in them in 2006, he should have confidence in them in 2005. With that, he should be more willing to try to win than to tank the season. If he trades anybody away, I don't think it will be until after the All Star break.

JDOldSchool · 06-25-2005, 05:26 AM

delayed dola,

So with my paycheck next week I am going to be getting my first A's jersey. As of now, I'm leaning towards Swisher, Street, Crosby, or Blanton. I can't decide between the four. Any suggestions? Are people wearing any of those guys' jerseys already? I like to get jerseys of guys that aren't of the mass-produced, everybody-has-'em type.

johnnyshaka · 06-25-2005, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

delayed dola,

So with my paycheck next week I am going to be getting my first A's jersey. As of now, I'm leaning towards Swisher, Street, Crosby, or Blanton. I can't decide between the four. Any suggestions? Are people wearing any of those guys' jerseys already? I like to get jerseys of guys that aren't of the mass-produced, everybody-has-'em type.

I'm guessing that Swisher, Street, Crosby, and Blanton are wearing those jerseys already.

wastesomepaint · 06-25-2005, 02:54 PM

Chad Bradford pitched in an inning in rookie ball last nite.. it'd be nice if we could get him back and healthy.

JDOldSchool · 06-25-2005, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wastesomepaint

Chad Bradford pitched in an inning in rookie ball last nite.. it'd be nice if we could get him back and healthy.

I had almost forgotten about Bradford entirely. Does anybody know his contract status?

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

I'm guessing that Swisher, Street, Crosby, and Blanton are wearing those jerseys already.

Damn. So much for being original!

06-24-2005, 02:55 PM	#351
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Clipped from today's edition of Prospectus Notebook at BB Pro. We're not quite halfway through the year, but it seems reasonable to make another assessment of the Athletics' blockbuster trades this past off-season. Code: Braves VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Tim Hudson 17.3 Juan Cruz -13.3 Charles Thomas -7.8 Dan Meyer Minors* ---------------------------------------------- TOTALS 17.3 -21.1 Ouch. Last year, Juan Cruz had a 2.75 ERA in 72 innings pitched, with a 70/30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, before being sent down to Triple-A, Cruz had an 8.49 ERA in 23 1/3 IP with a K/BB of 27/19. The strikeout rate is still solid, but the walks are out of control; Cruz was getting slapped around to the tune of 11.2 hits per nine and letting them out of the park at a rate of 1.5 homers per nine. Charles Thomas' .109/.255/.109 line earned him a CalTrain ticket to Triple-A Sacramento, as well. That's not a typo: Thomas had an OPS of 364 in 55 plate appearances. Thomas is definitely a better hitter than that, but let's not forget that in five minor-league seasons and 2,121 plate appearances Thomas compiled a less than outstanding .267/.345/.387 line; those averages include his flukish 2004 in Triple-A Richmond where he put together a half-season of .358/.416/.535 ball. Thomas shouldn't be 364 OPS bad, but neither is he as good as the 813 OPS he put up in a half-season with Atlanta last year. Code: Pirates/Indians VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Mark Redman 28.7 Jason Kendall -0.3 Arthur Rhodes 14.3 ------------------------------------------------ TOTALS 43.0 -0.3 OUCH! Jason Kendall has a career line of . 303/.384/.411, yet this year he is "hitting" just .255/.337/.295. Kendall has always been able to hit for average and at least a little bit of pop, but this year he's done neither. The complete lack of triples is at least partly due to McAfee Coliseum playing as a horrendous park for three-baggers (park factor of .652 since 2002). The batting average that's almost 50 points below his career level is inexplicable, though it does bear mentioning that Oakland as a team has the worst batting average in the AL (.251). Mark Redman is pitching miles above his head. His 90th percentile PECOTA projection had him at a 3.57 ERA with 37.0 runs of VORP in 183 innings pitched. In just over half that playing time he's already accumulated almost 78% of the value. With only 4.84 K/9 in 2005, the thing keeping Redman afloat is his absurdly low .268 BABIP. Of the 58 NL pitchers with at least 70 IP, Redman is tied for seventh in lowest batting average on balls in play. Arthur Rhodes has a low BABIP (.275), but he's also pitching really really well: 8.38 K/9, 1.24 BB/9, and most impressively, just 0.31 HR/9. Rhodes is looking more and more like the filthy set-up man he was from 2001-2002, which is exactly what Billy Beane thought he was getting when he signed the left-hander in 2004. Rhodes' year-by-year career record looks like another example of Voros McCracken's observation that even a full season of relief pitching is barely 1/4 to 1/3 the sample size of a full season of starting pitching; the results you see in such a small sample size can be incredibly misleading. Code: Cardinals VORP Athletics VORP ------------------------------------------------ Mark Mulder 8.1 Dan Haren 9.6 Kiko Calero -1.3 Daric Barton Minors ------------------------------------------------ TOTALS 8.1 8.3 Here's a fun experiment: Which pitcher would you prefer? Code: RA G IP H R ER HR BB SO SALARY Pitcher A 4.57 14 90.7 93 46 43 9 27 51 6,550,000 Pitcher B 4.83 15 95.0 88 51 42 8 32 73 323,500 The A's didn't like what they saw from Mark Mulder last year and decided to cut bait and run. It looks like their instincts were dead on. Kiko Calero was shelled in early outings this season, but much of that might have been due to his elbow tendinitis. Since returning from the DL at the beginning of the month Calero has had a 3.00 ERA with five strikeouts and just one walk in six innings. Only time will tell whether that's a small-sample-size blip or whether Calero has put things back together after a painful injury. Even while recovering from an emergency appendectomy and bone chips in the elbow, super-prospect Daric Barton has shown strong skills at High-A Stockton. Barton is hitting .300/.425/.433 and improving as he does on-the-job training at first base. The elbow problems that forced him out from behind the plate at the beginning of the season have abated to the point where the Ports moved him to catcher the other night for his first inning behind the dish since 2004. More good news: just yesterday it was announced that Barton will help represent the U.S. squad at the Futures Game on July 10. For the A's, the net deficit from those trades currently stands at 81.5 runs of VORP, or just over eight wins, which would be more than enough to put them back in the AL West race at this point in the season. Admittedly the team got younger, cheaper, and obtained two sparkling prospects in Barton and Dan Meyer, but the impact of those three big trades on the 2005 season is looking more and more depressing as the year unfolds. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

06-23-2005, 08:04 PM	#345
Green & Gold Heart Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 5,242	Wow, how about that complete game shutout by Kirk Saarloos?! Nice job this series taking 3 out of 4 (should have been a sweep ). I think it's obvious we don't belong in last place.

06-25-2005, 01:46 AM	#356
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	Based on that quote, it sounds to me like Beane has confidence in this group of players. If he has confidence in them in 2006, he should have confidence in them in 2005. With that, he should be more willing to try to win than to tank the season. If he trades anybody away, I don't think it will be until after the All Star break.

06-25-2005, 05:26 AM	#357
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	delayed dola, So with my paycheck next week I am going to be getting my first A's jersey. As of now, I'm leaning towards Swisher, Street, Crosby, or Blanton. I can't decide between the four. Any suggestions? Are people wearing any of those guys' jerseys already? I like to get jerseys of guys that aren't of the mass-produced, everybody-has-'em type.

06-25-2005, 02:54 PM	#359
wastesomepaint Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 46	Chad Bradford pitched in an inning in rookie ball last nite.. it'd be nice if we could get him back and healthy.