Time Warp Baseball

[tward13]

Always looking to stick up for my guys I'd like to look at the game's choice

SP Matt Keyes Jr. 13-13 4.00 ERA

or how about the Giants'

IF Al Mugford .324 - 4 - 56

[Carlton]

We can also start using CatoBase!!
That would be a nice 50 year Anniversary

[canadiancreed]

Originally Posted by Carlton

We can also start using CatoBase!!
That would be a nice 50 year Anniversary

For once I can agree with my cohort in Philly, for the seasons that we can use it for that is.

And tward's idea is good too, kind of a 1-2 punch of a 50 year celebration.

Seriously, has there been a league that has lasted this long? I cant think of any

[lgkeeper]

Originally Posted by tward13

We should try to annouce the individual team's "First 50" teams early in the season, then choose the TWB All-time team from those players, to be announced at the all-star game.

I love this idea.

Matt, I want to be involved a bit more (historically, statsitically etc) since I have a lot more time at work than I do at home and would love a few projects.

Let me know if you want me to do anything.

Trent

[DamnYankees]

Something very cool (and self-agrandizing) I just noticed.

Morris Lutske banged out 224 hits this year, 4 years after he set the Red Sox record with 228 hits. This makes him just the 2nd player ever, I believe, to have multiple 220+ hit seasons. I was looking over the leaderboards, and from what I saw, only Will Miller had 2 as well. Lutske is only 26, so hopefully he'll have a shot at standing alone with 3+ seasons of this kind of production.

Am I wrong? Are there others with multiple 220+ hit seasons?

[canadiancreed]

holy crap two 200+ hit seasons and only 26? that kid is goign to have a very good chance at Miller's record

[DamnYankees]

Well, 2 220+ hit seasons. And a 199 season and a 198 season. A couple bleeders those years, and no injury last year, and he has 5 straight 200 hit seasons. Some things are not to be, though...

It would be very, very hard to catch Miller, and I don't expect it to happen. Even if he averaged 200 hits a season, he would need to keep this up until he's 41 years old. Not likely. My goal is for Morris to end his career with a .350 batting average and have 3000 hits. Morris missed a year due to the war, and sat on the bench his first 2 years, so he got a few tough breaks.

[jdw]

tward13 wrote:

> We should try to annouce the
> individual team's "First 50"
> teams early in the season,
> then choose the TWB All-time
> team from those players, to
> be announced at the all-star
> game.

I would think so. Perhaps sometime in May. Probably in June we should vote for the All-50.


John

[jdw]

lgkeeper wrote:

> Let me know if you want me to do anything.

Do anything, Trent.

No - seriously. You can look at the Retired Player List and come up with candidates for the All-50 at each position:

http://www.southernbaseball.com/modu...viewtopic&t=28

Along with the active players in the league.

I think in some positions there isn't a need to bust out a half dozen candidates. It's pretty obvious that Woody will win at 2B, and that Tito and Burke and Slap swamp the rest of the cast of characters at 2B. But some other positions (1B and 3B come to mind) could use a lot of work.


John

[canadiancreed]

True, some present guys alone will clog up first, what with Arrendale, Chaucer, and the like....

[jdw]

> Am I wrong? Are there others
> with multiple 220+ hit seasons?

Rabbi Baum:

1923 - 236
1924 - 226
1925 - 221

He had 219 in 1926 to just miss doing it four straight years.


John

[jdw]

> It would be very, very hard to catch Miller,
> and I don't expect it to happen.

I think it's impossible for him to catch Miller. Lots of things work against him:

* Miller started at the age of 17. He wasn't great at 17, and didn't play regular his first two years. But he did get a 82-0 lead before Morris even got his first hit.

* Morris got his first hit at the age of 19. 20 of them. Miller lead the AL in hits with 212 at that age. 293-20.

* Miller was banged up at the age of 20 and had 120 hits, his lowest total between the age of 19 and 38. Morris was off to war at that age, losing ground rather than picking it up. 413-20.

* Morris sat a lot his first year back - 50 hits at the age of 21. Miller banged out another 205 hits. 618-50 lead with Morris finally getting a starting job the next year.

Morris was 548 hits in the hole before he ever got a starting gig. One can chase down a player who starts fast and fades, but it's hard when the player in question is one who bangs out 196 hits at the age of 35 and 203 at the age of 38.

Anyway, this next one is going to stun people.

From the age of 22-26, Morris has had seasons of 228, 224, 199 and 198 hits.

Want to guess who had more hits in that age range?

1025 - Miller
1007 - Lutske

Pretty freaking amazing. In 1948 the groin pull, hitting "just" .324, and taking a pretty fair number of BB cost Morris a lot.

Right now the numbers for the career are:

1643 - Miller
1077 - Lutske

How big of a lead is that?

If Morris got 224 hits every year between now and the age of 38, he's still be 95 its behind Miller. He would then need 200 at the age of 39 to end up 3 ahead of Miller's pace... then 36 as an old goat of 40 years old to stay ahead of him.

I don't think Morris can average 224 hits for another 12 straight years, and then tag 235 hits on top of that at the combined ages of 39 & 40.

If not for the War, and if he'd grabbed the job in 1943, and if he averaged about 200 hits in 1943 and 1944, then he might have had a chance. It would have been an uphill fight even then, as it would have still left him 198 hits behind Miller at that point, and even 216 behind *at this point*. But it would have greatly reduced the rate at which he needs to put hits up to catch him.

This why Kress has a good chance of chasing down Oscar's HR record. He's 25 ahead of Oscar's pace, and coming up on a season where Oscar hit "just" 30 HR, giving him a chance to pick up another 10+ HR on his pace.

Chauce is 9 ahead of Oscar's pace, and Ormiston is 12 ahead. Both are a year younger than Kress. Perly the Younger is ahead of both of those guys pace. Despite the late start, Hershel Lee is just one HR behind Oscar's pace. One of these 10 Power guys is going to do it.


John

[DamnYankees]

John, that was the best thing I've ever read. Admittedly I'm totally biased, but it was really thrilling to see you analyze my grandfather like that.

Gotta love him and Miller as the only guys over 1000 hits at that age. Like I said, I don't expect at all to catch Miller, for all the reaosns you stated. Also, I don't think he's good enough. Unless he gets a talent bump in contact and gets up to 10 (lord, he would get 250 hits a year if that happened), he'll just stay steady, and earn his space as one of the best singles hitters ever. A Little Poison type, but better.

EDIT: Thanks for the info on Baum. So Morris is one of a very prestigious three, and has something to shoot for. I think he can get 220+ at least once more. Hopefully more, if he plays into 1961.

[Matt from TN]

John, have you kept up on that GG spreadsheet? It would be helpful when picking a 50-Year team or a all GG team.

Yeah, I'd like to see every team announce a 50-year team with 1 player at each position and a 4-man rotation... we don't care about relievers, because remember, this is 1950. But feel free to mention 1 if really deserving. Any team that can't do this, please let me know so I can do it for them.

Then the VC will go thru and make suggestions on the all-time TWB team, with me being any tiebreaker.

So you guys really want catobase, even if it's only from 1932 on? I have the 1922-30 seasons too, but I would have to recreate the 1931 season to use them.

[tward13]

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

holy crap two 200+ hit seasons and only 26? that kid is goign to have a very good chance at Miller's record

George Ward (new HOF candidate for those who haven't voted yet!) had 4 200+ hit seasons by the time he was 26. Was working on his 5th the season he turned 27 (so technically counts as his age 26 year)

[canadiancreed]

So you guys really want catobase, even if it's only from 1932 on? I have the 1922-30 seasons too, but I would have to recreate the 1931 season to use them.

I cant speak for everyone but myself I'd defiantely vote yes on it My experieince with the little dynasty that i'm running makes it an amazing tool

[tward13]

Originally Posted by DamnYankees

John, that was the best thing I've ever read. Admittedly I'm totally biased, but it was really thrilling to see you analyze my grandfather like that.

Gotta love him and Miller as the only guys over 1000 hits at that age. Like I said, I don't expect at all to catch Miller, for all the reaosns you stated. Also, I don't think he's good enough. Unless he gets a talent bump in contact and gets up to 10 (lord, he would get 250 hits a year if that happened), he'll just stay steady, and earn his space as one of the best singles hitters ever. A Little Poison type, but better.

EDIT: Thanks for the info on Baum. So Morris is one of a very prestigious three, and has something to shoot for. I think he can get 220+ at least once more. Hopefully more, if he plays into 1961.

Ward also had well over 1000 hits before turning 27. He had 1304 through 1931 then had 208 in 1932, the season he turned 27 (On Aug. 21)

[ifspuds]

Originally Posted by Matt from TN

So you guys really want catobase, even if it's only from 1932 on? I have the 1922-30 seasons too, but I would have to recreate the 1931 season to use them.

YES YES YES! And furthermore... yes!

Seriously, while I'm having a blast going through my own team's history year by year, whatever additional information that might be available, even if it's only from 1932 on, would be outstanding and very helpful.

And some enterprising soul, or group of souls, might just be willing to tackle the recreation of 1931 for the benefit of getting those additional seasons added in (yes, I'm volunteering to be part of the effort, should it come to that).

[jdw]

DamnYankees wrote:

> John, that was the best thing
> I've ever read. Admittedly I'm
> totally biased, but it was really
> thrilling to see you analyze my
> grandfather like that.

Thanks.


> Gotta love him and Miller as the
> only guys over 1000 hits at that
> age.

I'm pretty sure are many other players who have had 1000+ hits by the age of 26. I only looked at Miller and Morris. Looking at the hit leaderboard:

1727 - Pops McAuliffe
1666 - Kid Fite
1643 - Will Miller
1637 - Rabbi Baum
1546 - Fat Gus Kahle
1512 - General Ward
1480 - Sal Rossi
1462 - Flaky Arsenault
1373 - Tito Nunez
998 - Tyke Walls

That's just the Top 10 in hits. So many of these guys broke into the bigs at 17 or 18, and were awfully good by 20, that's it's pretty much a hoot to look at. Several reasons for this:

* older versions of OOTP generated more fully developed draft picks

* I believe Matt now dials down the Overall (or "current") Talent of draft picks to keep there from being these Super Kids

* older versions of OOTP had a quicker development curve

* newer OOTP seems to be slower and reaching peaks at an unrealist (in a non-juice era) older age

* older versions of OOTP had a sharper decline in aging

* newer OOTP can have a far slower aging process, hence the late in life performance of Moe and Ditty in the post war was rarely (if ever) matches by players in the past.

A lot of that is why Morris can possibly catch some of those players on the list even though he's trailing them by several hundred hits. Most of these players had very front loaded careers, while it's a strong possibility that Morris still has his peak coming, especially if a OOTP patch doesn't pop up to cut off the juiced up post-30 age numbers.

Take a look at Baum. He got injured during a monster year in 1930 at the age of 30. He never was the same, other than a flash of it in 1933 when he was again injured. After that he was a shell of himself.

So I could see Morris getting a boatload of hits. Miller is just tough to catch for him because he is so far behind _and_ Miller kept banging out hits for a long time. I don't want to say that Miller's mark is uncatchable by *anyone*. It's just going to have to be someone who doesn't have the disadvantage that Morris did - the war and the slow start getting into the line-up.


> EDIT: Thanks for the info on Baum.
> So Morris is one of a very prestigious
> three,

It's *possible* that someone else has done 220 twice. I just didn't take much of a look. I can run through the almanacs and see what comes up.


> I think he can get 220+ at
> least once more.

He certainly has a decent shot at it. The Eye rating is low, though he does walk a *fair* amount. He seems dialed into the top of the Sox order, and will be there for a while (the Sox may find a better leadoff hitter at some point and drop him to #2).


> Hopefully more, if he plays into 1961.

Seems like a lock. He'll be 38 then. He just may not be a regular, unless some team give him a gig to chase a higher slot on the all-time leader boards.


John


John

[jdw]

tward13 wrote:

> Was working on his 5th the season
> he turned 27 (so technically counts
> as his age 26 year)

I go with a 7/1 cut off each year. It seems to be the standard sabermetric date to use when doing age comps. Blame Bill James for it, not me.


John