Official Rolen/Cubby Player Rating Question Thread

[pstrickert]

This time I touched nothing before simming the 2006 season. No injuries. No fatigue. No AI moves. I ran the season 3 different times. Here's what I came up with for R. Halladay:

#1

12-11, 4.12 ERA, 220 IP, 161 K, 47 BB, 30 HR, 35 GS, 1 CG

#2

16-9, 3.76 ERA, 227 IP, 134 K, 45 BB, 16 HR, 35 GS, 2 CG

#3

12-13, 3.81 ERA, 221 IP, 153 K, 50 BB, 25 HR, 35 GS, 2 CG


NOTE: The NYY rotation has only 4 slots filled at the beginning of the season. Is that deliberate?

[CubbyFan23]

No, I will have to fix that. I don't know what is going on then, I'll have to test some more later on I suppose with him, obviously his numbers should be a lot better than that.

EDIT: I know the park factors in the Rogers Centre were messed up earlier but I believe I fixed them, double check those too to make sure that the triples rating isn't too high (it was 108 instead of 1.08 or something to that likeness).

[ndhalogod]

Here are some other minor details:

Grady Sizemore:
2012 (Team Option): $8,500,00 (if the Tribe declines his option, Grady gets $500,000. If traded, it becomes a player option with a $500,000 buyout.)

Ian Kinsler:
2006: $327,000 (rather than the massive deal he has in the game)

Scott Kazmir:
Born on January 24, 1984....not January 24, 1985.

-Several of the injury times are as they would be on Opening Day, rather than January 2. Examples: CC Sabathia, David Wells, Todd Jones, AJ Burnett, Mike Cameron, Randy Wolf, Nomar Garciaparra, Armando Benitez, et. al.

Ratings suggestions:

-Ryan Zimmerman's power potential is a 114, which translates to 21 HR. He has 12 already, so his MLB ceiling is probably around 132 or so, imo.

-Jermaine Dye already has 25 HR, hit 31 in 2005, and projects out to 27 without any room for growth (132 pres.-133 potential). His actual should be around 145 and potential 157, imo.

-Bonds should be reduced across the board with injury proneness increased.

-Chris Ray should be slightly improved across the board.

-Carlos Lee should have higher power actual and potential.

-Jose Castillo should have higher power actual and potential.

-Roy Halladay should have higher Stuff and Movement actual and potential.

-Alex Rios should have slightly higher actual power and contact, but the same potentials.

-Hanley Ramirez should have a higher power actual and only a slight increase in power potential.

-Freddy Sanchez should have higher actual power and contact numbers.

-Eric Gagne should be injured. He should also have a higher overall proneness and now a back proneness as well as slightly worse ratings.

-Bobby Abreu should be LEFT AS IS.

[GoldenGlove]

Originally Posted by ndhalogod

Here are some other minor details:

Grady Sizemore:
2012 (Team Option): $8,500,00 (if the Tribe declines his option, Grady gets $500,000. If traded, it becomes a player option with a $500,000 buyout.)

Ian Kinsler:
2006: $327,000 (rather than the massive deal he has in the game)

Scott Kazmir:
Born on January 24, 1984....not January 24, 1985.

-Several of the injury times are as they would be on Opening Day, rather than January 2. Examples: CC Sabathia, David Wells, Todd Jones, AJ Burnett, Mike Cameron, Randy Wolf, Nomar Garciaparra, Armando Benitez, et. al.

Ratings suggestions:

-Ryan Zimmerman's power potential is a 114, which translates to 21 HR. He has 12 already, so his MLB ceiling is probably around 132 or so, imo.

-Jermaine Dye already has 25 HR, hit 31 in 2005, and projects out to 27 without any room for growth (132 pres.-133 potential). His actual should be around 145 and potential 157, imo.

-Bonds should be reduced across the board with injury proneness increased.

-Chris Ray should be slightly improved across the board.

-Carlos Lee should have higher power actual and potential.

-Jose Castillo should have higher power actual and potential.

-Roy Halladay should have higher Stuff and Movement actual and potential.

-Alex Rios should have slightly higher actual power and contact, but the same potentials.

-Hanley Ramirez should have a higher power actual and only a slight increase in power potential.

-Freddy Sanchez should have higher actual power and contact numbers.

-Eric Gagne should be injured. He should also have a higher overall proneness and now a back proneness as well as slightly worse ratings.

-Bobby Abreu should be LEFT AS IS.

You must give reasons why you think this.

[randomlefty10]

My replies in bold

Originally Posted by Willmore

True, but we are talking about one half of a season and in 2004, he had 8.5 K/9 before the all-star break in 10 starts. And in the minors he had a 7.11 K/9 that same year.

Yes, but all of his periphs are better than their 2004 counterparts, less hits, less walks, less HRs, more Ks

Somewhat true. His DIPS this year is at 4.37. And improvement over last year's 5.17 and 2004 and 2003's 4.84, but not better than his 2000 season of 4.34 DIPS. That was before his injury. Is he back to that level of performance ? Maybe. What does that mean ? He's an average to above-average pitcher.

That's all I'm claiming him to be, an average AL pitcher (above-average overall)


Not true. Since his May 30th start against the Rangers, when he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 innings, he has had 7 starts. Of which 6 were pretty good. In the span of the 7 starts, he pitched against the Royals, the D-backs, the Giants, the Padres and the Angels twice. Those 6 starts were against some the most inept offenses in the majors. 3 of the teams are from the NL, and they have shown during interleague play that NL teams are inferior to AL teams. So you basically had bad offensive NL teams playing against an average AL team. What do you think was supposed to happen ?

You cherry picked your timeline and then use that to refute my point? No. Take his last 16 starts, half his season. 107IP, 98H, 42ER, 14HR, 40BB, 90K, 8.2H/9, 1.16 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 7.57 SO/9, 2.25 SO/BB and includes 2 starts against Det, a start at the White Sox, a start at Texas, a start at TB, etc.

And Meche has had good and bad stretches before, just look at his pre- and post-all star game splits from year to year. 3.61 ERA before the break in 2003, 6+ ERA after. 7+ ERA before the break in 2004, 3.95 after the break.

You're relying on ERA there, check the periphs. They weren't as good as they are now

Meche is a streaky pitcher and unless he finishes the year with a sub-4 ERA this year, he's an average pitcher in my eyes.

An average AL pitcher is still better than he's being represented in the game, that's my WHOLE point

No, his stuff is great right now. And he has always had potential for good stuff, but has rarely shown it. Unreached potential is nothing, and until now Meche has been nothing. One can not substitute reason with hope when looking at a pitcher with potential.

You are misunderstanding what stuff implies. Meche has always had good individual pitches. His curve and fastball are no different now than they were 3 years ago. What he didn't have was any mental clue of how to pitch and mechanics that hid the ball. I can't vouch for any mental turnaround, but I can vouch for a change in his mechanics that now has him hiding the ball MUCH more than ever before. There's video evidence of this.


And isn't it convenient that his first healthy season is right before he is due to become a multi-millionaire 30 times over ? There will be a team out there that will look at a "finally healthy" 27-year old, who still has potential to become pretty good and will give him a 4-year, 40+ mil deal. It's going to happen. And Meche knows it, so when he might have complained about a sore back last year, he's going to tough it out and pitch his best right now.

Meche is a power pitcher, who gets hurt often and unlike some of the other power pitchers, he complains about it. He does not show the heart, the desire or any other mental characteristics that might signal to me, or anyone else that he has the mentality to be a good starter.

This is speculation. How many other pitchers went through the type of shoulder surgery Meche did? Guess what? It's a REALLY small number. The best comp is Chris Carpenter, who, shockingly, also took 2 years or so of struggling before regaining his health in full.

As soon as he starts to struggle, he'll have an excuse ready, you just wait and see.




I've watched him pitch, I'm a Mariners fan, and he has pitched differently, but it's means little. He has yet to show consistency over the course of the season, see my previous points on that.

Actually, he's been pretty consistant except for the tremendous June he's been your classic mid 4 ERA pitcher every other month. That's all I'm asking for in adjustment. Right now, he's rated as an above 5 ERA pitcher.

[PocketAces9900]

I don't know if this has been posted but Sean Marshall of the Cubs throws left and bats left

[tward13]

I guess this is where my note on Mike Pelfrey (Mets) belongs.

I realize the ratings are for Opening Day, but the kid dominated in AA and has already pitched in the majors before the All-Star break. He should be much further along in his development. He was a top selection in last year's draft and is major league ready sooner than expected.

[KySteveH]

General note about pitchers - I have noticed that many of the SP's have way inflated hitting ratings. Aaron Harang is a horrible hitter, and (on the 20-80 scale) he's 39 contact, 43 power, 42 eye. Brandon Claussen is 40/44/43.

Does that seem high to you guys?

[KySteveH]

General note about pitchers - I have noticed that many of the SP's have way inflated hitting ratings. Aaron Harang is a horrible hitter, and (on the 20-80 scale) he's 39 contact, 43 power, 42 eye. Brandon Claussen is 40/44/43.

Does that seem high to you guys?

Oh, and Eric Milton has a 51 rating for power!

Sorry about the double post; I got lost in form posting hell

[pstrickert]

Originally Posted by KySteveH

General note about pitchers - I have noticed that many of the SP's have way inflated hitting ratings. Aaron Harang is a horrible hitter, and (on the 20-80 scale) he's 39 contact, 43 power, 42 eye. Brandon Claussen is 40/44/43.

Does that seem high to you guys?

Oh, and Eric Milton has a 51 rating for power!

I haven't looked too closely at it, but I did notice in one test that Ben Sheets hit 2 home runs during the season. He's lucky if he hits the ball out of the infield IRL.

[Willmore]

randomlefty, I guess I misunderstood you in the your previous posts.

I fully agree that he should be just an average AL pitcher. I was under the impression that you wanted him rated as at least above average based purely on his half-season.

Meche is a streaky average pitcher, he's hot one day, not so hot the next. Chances are, he will be like this his whole career.

[pstrickert]

Cubby, the Astros (like the Yankees) also have an open slot in their pitching rotation.

[randomlefty10]

Again, Ms looksee, not much different, agree with the changes that were made, but I'm still going to lobby for the changes that haven't been made.

I grouped them into minor requests and major though

minor:

Atchison - needs a higher stuff rating. Look at his MLB numbers. 36Hs, 45Ks, 15BBs in 37.3IP. His projections don't seem to match his actual profile. His talent should be to run about a K/IP.

Bloomquist - His power should be lower. He's never come close to a .350 SLG, it should be around .325/.330

Carvajal - control rating should be lower, he's been wild in the low minors, should be at 4-5 BB/9

Mateo - control rating should be lower

Major:

Beltre - his power potential should be quite higher. He, after all, has shown the ability to hit for monster power before. Should have potential to hit 35-40 HRs.

Betancourt - contact talent and rating should be slightly higher. With his super low K rate, he has the potential for a .300 average. He's showing this year that he's pretty much already a .280+ hitter. Talent should be .300, Rating should be at .275-.280

Cabrera - higher discipline talent. He was running a huge isoD. Also, he's regarded as just a step below Betancourt defensively. His rankings there should be much higher.

Guardado - should probably have his ratings reduced, especially against RHB, his splits against RHB are terrible. They tee off on him.

Lopez - needs to have higher talents. His projections are pretty much pegging his season so far but the kid's like 22, he still has room to grow. There should be higher talent in all areas. Upside should probably be .300/.340/.500 with 25 HRs.

Lowe - endurance should be higher, he's been used as a starter before. Stuff potential should be higher. His K rates this year have been electric and he physically has the stuff to back that up, high 90s FB, plus slider, plus change. Also his ratings should probably be higher. He's gone from high A to Seattle in 4 months. Updated after another great outing in the big leagues. This is all holding true. Plus, his velocity is 95-97, not 90-92.

Meche - legitmately a different pitcher this year. His stuff potential needs to be a lot higher. He's always had great stuff, just been too big a headcase to use it. Much improved in that respect this season. His periphs should probably be 7+ K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1-1.2 HR/9

Pineiro - movement and control should be lower. He's not running 2:1 K/BB ratios anytime soon. He's been crap ever since his arm injury in '04. His velocity is gone, he's not above 90 anymore. He's 88-90 and his Ks are a thing of the past. He routinely gets less than 10 swinging strikes per game, well below acceptable levels.

Putz - He added a splitter this year. His K rate is through the roof and it's no joke. If you're going to bump up Papelbon you should do the same for Putz. His stuff and control should each be upped a bit. Also, his endurance should be higher. K rate should be at least 9+/9.

Reed - much higher OF range, lower arm. Rated by Dewan as one of the top 3 CFers last year in terms of covering ground (with Rowand and A. Jones). His ratings (not his talent) should be lower. He's shown he isn't ready to produce at the major league level yet. Range should be low 80s. Arm high 50s.

Snelling - should have higher gap talent and his ratings should be nearly maxed to his talent level. He's produced when healthy. He could run a 800 OPS in the big leagues right now.

[jayslick]

ive simmed 2 years and have had at least 3 no hitters, one by zito one by penny and one by sabathia.

considering how long its been in real life since the last no hitter, that seems really high.

[CubbyFan23]

No offense at all, but three no hitters in two years is not high at all. I don't know what to tell you about it, I don't do anything to change those numbers.

[jayslick]

how about 5 in 2 years then?

in whats is roughly the same period of time in real life we currently have zero.


Randy Johnson was the last Major League player to finish a no-hitter. He pitched it on Tuesday, May 18 2004 with the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Atlanta Braves.

with a jan1, 2006 start im at july 22, 2007 and i've had 5 in around 18 months

thats too many if you are replicating the current era.

[CubbyFan23]

If that is the biggest gripe about this set then I'm happy, there is absolutely nothing I can do to change the rate that no-hitters occur at, this would be something to mention to Markus I guess.

[Psychoholic Slag]

he can't do anything about it bro. Give it up.

[Toado]

I think David Eckstein needs to have better contact. He's been an All-Star the past 2 years (albeit probably not deserving) and is hitting .312 this year, .294 last year, and a career average of .285. He's currently rated to hit .261 in the roster set and is benched in favor of Hector Luna.

I'd say Scott Rolen needs a little more power. If you do the math for his career, he averages 27.6 HRs per 550 at bats. The current ratings have him slated for 22 HRs/550. His problem is that he never gets 550 at bats per year because he's always hurt (increase injury proneness?)

I'd make Mulder worse across the board. His career ERA is 4.03, and has steadily been rising (not a good trend for a pitcher who should be in his prime). His solid 3.64 ERA last year is sandwiched in between a mediocre 4.43 in 2004 and 6.09 this year. Regardless, I think his rated 3.47 ERA should come up to somewhere closer to 3.90-4.00.

Also, John Rodriguez has too much power and not quite enough average. He has hit 2 HRs this year in 143 at-bats, but is hitting .308 (.295 last year). The current ratings projects him for .251/20 HRs. Also, he is terrible defensively, which is a big reason why he isn't an everyday starter and Tony takes him out for defense late in games.

[bp_]

Albert Callaspo at AAA ARZ needs better contact potential. He's been a very good contact hitter in the minors that barely ever Ks.