Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

December 12, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels, Miners Agree to Trade

Signed... Sealed... and Delivered. Louisville has worked out terms of a deal to send 27-year-old minor league starting pitcher Aurelio Díaz, 27-year-old first baseman Ray Conley and 27-year-old minor league second baseman Juan García to Denver for 18-year-old minor league starting pitcher Pedro Castro. Both teams expect to introduce their new players at press conferences later in the week.

**********

Why wait? I’ll introduce my player right now. Castro is currently the #9 prospect in the CBA according to BNN. Fernando says he will someday be a “top-of-the-rotation” guy. He was 16-7 with a 2.92 ERA in Class-A last season. Denver gets three guys that all have a shot to make their active roster next spring.

Next, I met with the Milwaukee Eagles right down the hall…

[Orcin]

December 12, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: Swap: Mizuno for Morgan

The Louisville Colonels announced a deal with the Eagles today, sending 28-year-old reliever Kazunori Mizuno, 23-year-old minor league starting pitcher Héctor Ortíz and 27-year-old minor league center fielder Marcos Sosa to Milwaukee for 21-year-old left fielder Dennis Morgan. All players are expected to be joining their respective clubs shortly.

**********

I point you back to post #52 where you can see Morgan listed as the CBA’s #1 prospect on opening day last year. Fernando says he will win a few awards before he is done. He is only 21 and has all three options remaining. I would have preferred to keep Sosa and trade Moyle, but Milwaukee drove a hard bargain.

The press has begun to question this move already, saying that our outfield is full of stars and Morgan won’t have a place to play. Why give up a great reliever like Mizuno for a guy that is blocked? I can’t really answer this question publicly, so I will just have to shrug and take the heat from the boys at the barbershop.

[Orcin]

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

To: Gordon Cooper
From: Otto Orcin

CC: Fernando Candelaria
CC: Chad Byrne

Subject: Silas Campbell

The updated scouting report on Silas Campbell is attached. You can read it at your leisure, but the executive summary says it all. The statistical models predict that Campbell will begin to decline this year and may no longer be a star player at age 34. He is signed for three more years; actually four, but the final year has a vesting option of 135 games. Campbell should be a good player over the remainder of the contract, but he may no longer be the impact player that we have come to expect.

We must begin to prepare for his decline, and that is precisely why the trade for Dennis Morgan was made. We will be careful not to embarrass Campbell because of his stature and popularity. Eventually, Morgan will assume the starting left field role and Campbell will become a bench player. The timing of this succession plan will depend entirely upon Campbell’s performance.

Morgan will probably begin the season at AAA. If Campbell is healthy and productive, Morgan could stay there all season. If not, Campbell may be moved down a slot or two in the lineup, and Morgan will be called up to sub for him fairly often. The results on the field will dictate our actions from there. Manager Byrne will have full control over this process and the decisions about playing time will be his alone. All of us agree that we should manage the situation to get the most out of Campbell.

The purpose of this memorandum is to share our strategy with you so that you will be prepared for the eventual questions. Please share this information with Henry when you feel the time is right. I want to be clear that we have no intentions of trading Campbell or humiliating him. He will hopefully retire in a Colonels uniform and be inducted to the Hall of Fame someday as our first member. We will do our best to ensure that he goes out with his head held high.

Regards,
Otto Orcin

[Orcin]

Notable Free Agent Signings from December 2001

12/14/2001: Ending weeks of speculation, the Titans finalized a deal with Akinori Ishikawa earlier today, making the first baseman a very happy man. He'll be making an estimated $18.4 million per year for 4 years. Ishikawa has a career .259 average with 328 home runs and 760 RBIs. (Ishikawa hit 76 home runs in 1999. His production has declined substantially over the past two years.)

12/15/2001: Houston officials were grinning from ear to ear as they introduced their latest blockbuster signing to the media earlier today. Matt Head, one of the game's marquee talents, opted for the Stars after receiving a 1-year, $12.3 million offer. Over his career Head has a record of 39-32 with a 2.40 ERA. He has saved 194 games. (Head will combine with last year’s closer, Juan De Leon, to give the Stars a formidable late-inning bullpen.)

12/23/2001: Nick Davis finds himself at the epicenter of a baseball-crazed universe by signing with Los Angeles. The 27-year-old inked a $12.6 million, 1-year deal today. Fans see nothing but upside and are placing the hopes of the franchise at his feet, expecting him not to disappoint. During his career Davis has a 30-37 record and a 2.14 ERA with 213 saves. (Bob Todd apparently set the market price for overpaid closers at $12 million when he signed with New York in early December.)

12/25/2001: Rafael Salinas and Philadelphia put the finishing touches on a $12.9 million per year deal that will keep the 30-year-old in a Philadelphia uniform for 3 years. Team officials reportedly held their breath at the last moment, since Salinas had second thoughts mulling over other offers. Career-to-date Salinas had notched 252 saves with a 58-41 record and a 2.23 ERA. (Most of the top closers are off the board now but there’s still time for a few more teams to sign one for $12-13 million.)

12/29/2001: The Miners and Silvio Melman appeared before the Denver media today as the two sides emerged from marathon contract talks. Melman, a starting pitcher, is poised to make $52.2 million over 4 years. During his career the 32-year-old Melman has put up a 3.60 ERA. His lifetime won-lost mark is 117-105 and opposing clubs have hit .242 against him. (This contract offers an idea of what Ron MacLain might be worth on the open market, and MacLain is younger. I made a note to negotiate a long-term contract with him now while I still can afford him.)

12/30/2001: The euphoria surrounding a big name deal can sometimes overshadow the deal itself. Occasionally a team will mortgage its future to make a big splash, though no one in Washington was worried about that today as the club finalized terms with Jason Saunders. A premier left-handed starting pitcher, Saunders will earn $12.9 million per year over 2 years. In his career Saunders has 67 victories and 66 defeats with a 4.42 ERA. (I guess I didn’t overpay for Clayton after all. This guy was the best left-hander on the free agent list, and he isn’t any better than Clayton.)

[bwub60]

really enjoying the dynasty. pretty new to OOTP and this gives me some ideas for my future games. Also what does VORP stand for? I notice that you used it to see if a player was in a decline.

[Nunyer]

Value
Over
Replacement
Player

Basically how many runs better/worse is this player than what a "readily available" replacement player would be. It can be somewhat arbitrary, based on how the value of this "readily available" replacement player is calculated, but it can give you a good idea of how the player is producing compared to the rest of the league.

[Orcin]

January 2, 2002

My pair of trades during the winter meetings sent six players away in return for two, and leaves only 30 players on my 40-man roster. That’s a little thin even for me. I want to build my roster back up to at least 34-35 players via waiver claims or free agents. A couple of those new players arrived last week.

12/25/2001: The Louisville Colonels announced the signing of 19-year-old CF Pedro Dominguez, a 5-star prospect discovered by scouting director Fernando Candelaria in Puerto Rico. Dominguez will probably not play before Rookie League ball starts in June.

12/27/2001: Louisville signed SP Fraser Wall to a two-year contract worth $3.4 million. The second year of the contract is a team option for $1.8 million with no buyout. Wall pitched for the Colonels AAA affiliate last year, going 12-9 with a 3.28 ERA and 174 K’s in 181 innings. The 32-year-old right-hander has two option years remaining.

Starter Ron MacLain has signed a three-year contract extension worth $21 million. Candelaria cautioned me against this move, saying it’s a lot of money for a breakeven pitcher that accounted for 24% of our 2001 losses. He thinks that I should see another year of performance and take my chances in arbitration. The stat-geek moneyball GM disagrees.

MacLain pitches to contact and gets a ton of groundballs (65%) with his sinker. He eats innings and keeps the ball in the park. He gives up some walks but he also throws a lot of double plays. I see that as a pretty good value for $7 million per year when mediocre starters with similar stats are getting $10-12 million.

[Orcin]

Is Spring Training Here Yet?

January and February go by pretty slowly. Here are a few tidbits to chew on. It’s not much, but frankly there’s not a lot going on for a team that is settled at most spots. We are just waiting for the remaining attractive free agents to decide that it is time to accept one-year deals.

Candelaria discovered a shortstop named Cristo Rodriguez in Cuba. Don’t ask me how our scout got into Cuba. The kid is 18 and looks like a 4-star prospect. We signed him to a minor league contract and he will report to Owensboro if we can get him a visa before June.

One of the last glamor free agents, RF Suketsune Matsumoto, signed with Los Angeles for $76 million over 4 years. Matsumoto previously played for Sacramento. He has a .287 career average and 201 career home runs. There is one premier first baseman left on the market and then mid-level first basemen should be open to reasonable offers.

Louisville Colonels officials presented 36-year-old Ramón Hernández to members of the local media today as their new fourth outfielder. The one-year deal, worth $7.5 million, should improve the ballclub, assuming he plays to his potential. Hernández is carrying a .289 lifetime batting average with 226 home runs and 838 RBIs. He is a left-handed hitter that can play both corner outfielder spots and first base.

Another former college coach came on the market, and he was highly recommended by Chris Ray who faced him across the diamond a few times. I juggled my minor league staff and tried to grab him. Dayton hitting coach Matt Reed accepted re-assignment to Owensboro and then I offered former Oklahoma State head coach Michael Lewis a contract at $250K for five years to be the AA hitting coach. I thought it was a fair offer, but I had to increase it to $300K per year for five years to beat the competition. Lewis signed a few days later as the new bench coach of the Charleston Generals for five years at $330K. It is hard to beat a major league offer. I will keep the Dayton position open until the spring in case another good candidate becomes available. I can always move Reed back there and hire a one-year placeholder for the Rookie League spot.

The good news is that Ollie Robertson finally signed as the new manager in Evansville (Class-A). The offer had been on the table since October 29! I have not seen an offer stay open for three months, but at least we were able to sign him.

Defending champ Houston just couldn’t be left behind in the arms race or the spending race. They signed another expensive reliever, lefty Charlie Hartnett, for one year at $11.6 million. Their bullpen will be unbelievable. They already had De Leon and signed Matt Head earlier in the off-season. So Hartnett gives them three closers!

[Breckinridge]

Hot Stove time. I've never lost a Hot Stove pennant. I dazzle myself with the insight and wisdom of someone who never has to actually make a trade or set a lineup. Cuba, huh? Explains those good-smelling cigars Candelaria's always puffing on.

On another note, there was an Ollie Robertson from my hometown who was a teacher, coach, and author. He and my Uncle co-wrote a sports novel together.

Regards,

Breck

[Orcin]

This Ollie Robertson is from Las Vegas. He was a former minor league catcher. They always seem to make good managers.

[Orcin]

Can’t we please get some games soon?

Yeah, I know. This hot stove league stuff is pretty boring. I am trying to speed through it for you, but this is where the real action is for a GM. Jennifer says to put your big girl panties on and deal with it.

We signed former Denver Miners first baseman Don Greene to a two-year contract at $2 million per year. Greene hit .243 with 16 HR last year. The 30-year-old right-handed batter has a lifetime stat line of .258/.360/.442. Greene has two options remaining and will probably play first base at Lexington, but he could earn a spot on the bench with a good spring. This is really an insurance policy on Chris Brown, because we have no other true first basemen on the roster.

I made offers to two veteran right-handed long relievers to provide depth in the bullpen. Both are coming off poor years with bad teams and weak defenses. Candelaria assures me that both will be great with our defense behind them. They want one-year contracts and can be a good influence in the clubhouse. If I get them, a couple of young pitchers will be forced down to AAA again. Injuries happen and I must have quality depth, so the younger guys will just have to wait their turn.

[Orcin]

February 18, 2002 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Louisville Signs Two Veteran Free Agent Pitchers

Louisville Colonels fans welcomed Jeff Moreno into the fold, as the veteran announced he'd reached an agreement with Louisville brass. Some fans were critical of the move, insisting that you shouldn't invest $5 million in a 35-year-old man, no matter how good he might be on the field. The team believes he will deepen their roster and ultimately help them win a championship. In his CBA career, Moreno has a 163-134 won-lost record with a 3.42 ERA.

Reliever Bryan McConnell has also signed a one-year contract for $1.2 million with Louisville. McConnell, a 34-year-old right-hander, pitched for Cincinnati last season where he posted a 5.13 ERA in 57 bullpen appearances. McConnell was a star for Louisville in the 1990’s and both sides hope to rekindle some of that magic this season.

**********

Moreno is a right-handed swingman and will be the long reliever for us. He can also start if we have an injury. His stuff and movement are exceptional and he sports a 74% groundball ratio. He throws a cutter and a splitter and doesn’t give up many long balls. He pitched most of his career for Nashville, where he was awesome on good teams (a three-time All-Star) and terrible on bad ones. We have a good team.

McConnell had a .352 BABIP last year, and it is pretty obvious that he had some bad luck and/or poor defense working against him. He will be asked to replace Mizuno as a sixth/seventh-inning reliever and situational right-hander.

These two signing bring my roster to 36 players and my payroll to $105 million, so we are done with the off-season. I am really anxious to see some of the battles for roster spots in the spring. I think we have a very deep and much improved club.

The last personnel vacancy was filled when Tim Crouch accepted a one-year contract to be the hitting coach at Owensboro. Thus, Matt Reed will stay at Dayton after all.

[Jabez54]

Lots of good stuff happening ... thanks for the updates ...

[Sal, The Barber]

Sheesh, that ERA on McConnell is higher than Sal charges for a haircut! You better be right about it being bad luck.

And tell Jennifer to put on her big girl panties and come down to Sal's when called. What did she call the place? "Creepy"? Sal takes offense.

[Orcin]

Ah, can't slip one by you, Sal. Yep, that ERA is higher than your $4.95 haircut. But don't forget that Tomas usually gives you another quarter, so we are splitting hairs here. Yeah, that's what you do... heh... get it? No? Your sense of humor is not getting better with age.

Anyway... McConnell is just a pitch-to-contact guy who needs a better defense behind him. He can throw strikes and he keeps the ball in the park. Our guys can go get it.

I'll speak to Jennifer but I am not making any promises. She is not sure she needs any of your err... services.

[Orcin]

March 1, 2002 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: CBA Off-Season Scorecard

The winners and losers this off-season are graded based on WAR value gained/lost. The team’s 2001 record and finish is shown in parenthesis.

Winners:
1. Los Angeles Vipers +6.6 (82-80, 2nd)
2. Louisville Colonels +5.4 (103-59, 1st)
3. New York Monarchs +4.4 (99-64, 2nd)
4. San Francisco Seals +3.4 (72-90, 5th)
5. San Diego Stallions +3.3 (105-57, 1st)

Losers:
26. Cleveland Rockers -6.3 (93-69, 1st)
27. Milwaukee Eagles -7.2 (81-81, 2nd)
28. Indianapolis Indians -7.4 (62-100, 5th)
29. Cincinnati Bobcats -8.0 (70-92, 5th)
30. Sacramento Outlaws -8.7 (78-84, 4th)

The San Francisco Seals replaced their team personnel and signed a big-name starting pitcher (Bill Davigan). They may be ready to make a move in the Pacific Division.

[Orcin]

Subject: Spring Training Preview – Louisville Colonels (2001: 103-59 1st)

The Colonels won the Federal League’s Midwest Division in 2001 by 22 games, posting a franchise record for wins, but they lost to eventual champion Houston in the first round of the playoffs. Team management has made it clear that their 2002 goal is more than a divisional title. Pitching and defense is the team strength.

Key Acquisitions: SS Pierre-Louis Simon (5.6 WAR), SP/RP Jeff Moreno (3.7), RF Ramon Hernandez (1.6)
Important Losses: SS Raul Martinez (4.0), 1B David Harris (2.6), RP Kaz Mizuno (2.2)

Rotation: Todd Fletcher (24-5, 1.72), the Federal League’s 2001 Outstanding Pitcher, tops the rotation. Ron MacLain (14-14, 3.66) and lefty Ricardo Martinez (15-11, 3.72) each threw over 200 innings. Ron Sims (11-7, 3.94) pitched a perfect game and had a consistent second half. Lefty Dan Clayton was 6-0 with a 3.57 ERA after coming over from N.Y. in a trade. Free agent Jeff Moreno (9-16, 4.08 with Nashville) was signed as insurance for the rotation, but he will primarily pitch out of the bullpen if all goes well.

Bullpen: Closer Mike MacIntosh (1.42, 42sv) anchors an outstanding bullpen. Lefty setup man Rodrigo Melendez (1.62), Mario Chavez (1.92), David O’Daniel (2.95), and lefty Chris Patterson (2.02) give manager Chad Byrne a lot of good options in the late innings. Veteran free agent Bryan McConnell and holdover Kelly Dean will compete for the final spot, replacing Kaz Mizuno who will be closing games for Milwaukee this year.

Catcher: Veteran Julio Martinez (.238-21-74) is one of the best defensive catchers in the CBA. Rodolphe Murat will backup Martinez again this year. Top prospect Duncan Bland will hone his skills in AAA as long as Martinez is healthy.

Infield: SS Pierre-Louis Simon (.290-18-77, 60sb) was acquired from Boston to fill the leadoff role and his success will go a long way toward determining the team’s destiny. The Colonels are counting on 2B Rodney Wright (.273-10-49) to bounce back from an off year based on his final two months of torrid hitting. First baseman Chris Brown (.287-30-70 in 99 games) will be a key run producer if he stays healthy. Juan Aponte (.241-8-33) will have competition for the third base job from Russell Bennett and rookie Luis Gonzalez. The loser between Bennett and Aponte will fill the utility infield role.

Outfield: All-Star RF Terrence Banks (.310-32-120), CF Hugh McGlone (.325-20-76), and veteran LF Silas Campbell (.282-37-94) form one of the best outfields in baseball. Veteran Ramon Hernandez, who hit .296 in 2001 as a part-time player with Washington, was signed to be the fourth outfielder and top pinch-hitter. Reserves Brian Smith and Harry Hall could both make the team if the team only keeps five infielders.

CBA Top-Rated Players: SP Todd Fletcher, RF Terrence Banks, 1B Chris Brown
BNN’s Projected 2002 Finish: 87-75, Midwest Division Champion

[Orcin]

Spring Training Recap:

• Spring training record was 15-7. We had no major injuries, so it was a great spring.
• Injuries to Ramon Hernandez and Harry Hall will keep them both on the sidelines for the first week of the season.
• Backup catcher Murat and one utility infielder will make the club, leaving three bench spots undecided. Hernandez and Hall both had good springs before their injuries, but Hernandez wins the fourth outfielder spot based on reputation and prior record.
• The right-handed candidates (with spring stats) are CF Brian Smith (.325-4-10), 1B Don Greene (.241-0-2), LF Dennis Morgan (.176-2-5), and RF Jeff Moyle (.267-2-4).
• Smith definitely makes the team. Morgan definitely goes down to AAA for regular playing time. That leaves one spot up for grabs.
• Hall probably gets the last spot because he is lefty and he can also play first base. Greene will go to AAA for regular at bats in case he is needed later. Moyle has a few days to impress me before we try to sneak him through waivers.
• Russell Bennett won the starting third base job over incumbent Juan Aponte, but Aponte will see a lot of playing time since he is the only infield sub.
• Dominican 3B prospect Luis Gonzalez had a mediocre spring and Candelaria lost some of his initial enthusiasm, downgrading his potential from 5-star to 3.5-star. It looks like we are still searching for that third baseman to lock down the position.
• Manager Chad Byrne said he would rather play Brian Smith over Silas Campbell as the left fielder if he had his choice. He doesn’t get that choice. I still have hope that rumors of Campbell’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. I am rooting for him.
• The pitching staff offered very few surprises. Byrne wanted to keep Jim Poole over Clayton, but he was over-ruled. I just don’t think Poole has the stamina to be a top starter. Reliever Kelly Dean was the final cut because he had options remaining.
• I will be checking the waiver wire today for affordable bench players and pitchers that could make the major league roster. There are 122 players on waivers.
• I gave Fernando Candelaria an extra $1 million in his budget (now $6M domestic plus $4M international for a total of $10M compared to the league average of $5M).
• The player development budget remains at $12M vs. the league average of $8M.

[Orcin]

Opening day lineup vs. the Indianapolis Indians

I met late into the night with manager Chad Byrne and I was able to convince him to try a sabermetric “optimized” lineup for at least a couple of weeks. This lineup structure is based on optimizing the batting position of the four best hitters, in our case Banks, McGlone, Brown, and Simon, and then placing the other hitters around them.

The Louisville Colonels optimized lineup:

SS Simon – highest OBP with base-stealing speed
CF McGlone – best contact hitter
LF Campbell – best of the rest with power
RF Banks – best contact hitter with power
1B Brown – next-best power hitter
2B Wright – best of the rest with base stealing speed
C Martinez – next best other hitter with power
3B Bennett – somebody has to bat eighth
P Fletcher – no “pitcher bats eighth” tricks here

The really sneaky thing about this new lineup, which Byrne liked, is that Campbell will bat in a less important spot – but one that looks like a more important spot to the fans. It also has the advantage of separating the lefties (McGlone and Banks) with Campbell.

I have asked manager Byrne to take more chances on the base paths this season. I don’t think we capitalized on our speed last year, and we have added a base stealer at the top of the lineup. Campbell and Martinez are the only truly slow runners among the starters.

I hope that this optimized lineup will produce more runs than last season. If it doesn’t show results in the first few weeks, Byrne has the right to change it based on his “gut feel”. After all, he has won Manager of the Year twice. I haven’t won squat.

[Orcin]

The pundits at BNN foresee a 2002 World Series between the Baltimore Robins and San Diego Stallions. This is certainly possible, given that these two teams have great pitching. Baltimore barely missed the playoffs last year and San Diego lost a tight LCS to the eventual champion, Houston.

Los Angeles Vipers’ first baseman Josh Haley is expected to win his third straight Federal League Outstanding Player award, and he is projected to hit 83 home runs! We’ll be watching that one closely. The Outstanding Pitcher in the Patriot League is projected to be… ok, you guessed it again… Jorge Figueroa. Will he win a tenth OP award?