Historical replay accuracy

[Jah]

Originally Posted by Garlon

The LTM's don't kick in until the second year of a league. So if you want a more realistic 1974 season you'd have to start in 1973 or 1972 and sim up until 1974. Then the LTM's have a good harness on controlling the league output.

The only other way to do it would be to run a simulation of 1974, then calculate all of the LTM's by hand based on the end of season stats, then start a 1974 all over again and put those LTM's in place before yo beginning simming. It'd be nice if OOTP would do an initial test run of a league to calculate year #1 LTM's for us, but we don't have that in place yet.

I thought this issue was finally addressed in OOTP X, according to the features page...

Improved Historical Simulation
...new total modifiers were added and the accuracy of the initial season was improved so that single-season replays are now more realistic.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Sir Garlon: Please have patience with my n00bness as I run through the following list of assumptions/questions about the settings that you used to achieve these excellent results. I assume several of your choices were made in order to blister through the sim to get the settings/results out to the people, such as: 1) leaving DH off for all years (though that may also indicate your disdain for it) 2) disabling the financial system and 3) disabling the auto adjust league strategy feature or is there something about the league strategy settings that you chose that results in better numbers for each setting?

Further questions/assumptions: 1) The adjusted fielding stats and caught stealing numbers and most other adjustments that were in the original Spritze/Garlon DB apart from some/all Negro League and Japanese League players are still in the in-game neut. stats db yes/no? 2) What are these "predefined draft values" of which you speak? and 2a) The draft date is pushed back due to the fact that the original pool of imported players already includes the rookies for the originating year y/n? 3) Seeing as you have already neutralized the players stats, why are you neutralizing/taking away the uniqueness of each of the historical stadiums? Is it because the neutralized stats puts the players on an even footing and it is best to leave them there for replayability or something else? 4) What is this custom neutral weather file of which you speak? Is it already in-game or is it a Mod? 5) I understand basing fielding ratings and pitcher stamina on the player's entire career, but what would be the best thing to base potential ratings on, given this database and your other suggested settings: a) remaining years or b) entire career? I think it's option b but I'm not sure.

Garlon, I've noticed that you've been in and out of this thread posting the awesome results from your 1871-2008 sim using your unique settings, so I'll re-post the questions that I had for you earlier in the thread re: said settings. Whenever you get a chance, I'd love to get your feedback. Thanks for your time.

[actionjackson]

Just giving this thread a polite bump, as it's already been pushed to page 2, which is a sign of a very active board, which is a good thing.

[Rondell Tate]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

Just giving this thread a polite bump, as it's already been pushed to page 2, which is a sign of a very active board, which is a good thing.

Maybe somebody can prune a sticky or two from the top of the board ... the one announcing that OOTPX is available seems a little superfluous by now ...

[Garlon]

actionjackson-

I turned off DH because there is still some issue with getting SAC Bunts correct when this is enabled. When you do not have a DH the league's SAC Bunt rate turns out correct.

I disabled financials because I don't like how it works with historicals. and if you take financials out of the picture, no franchises will end up with any edge over another.

I disabled the auto-adjust league strategy because I wanted the game to use my strategy settings, which as you can see from my posts on league ERA, will generate better results. If you use my settings you will get more realistic bullpen usage. If you use other combinations you can end up with relievers making 100+ appearances and throwing 160+ innings.

1. The DB in OOTPX is the Spritze/Garlon DB excluding the Negro League and Japanese League players.

2. The pre-defines draft values is an option within the game. Spritze and I calculated a Runs Created value for all players in the DB assuming maximum usage for their career - position players 550 AB per season, SP's 35 GS per season, and RP's 81 IP per season. This results in basically perfect AI draft logic. No more picking up Lou Gehrig in the 4th round. You should set the draft date to a date after the season has ended, like Dec 1st, because the rookies that you draft on say Dec 1st 1901 will be the real life rookies from the 1902 season. If you leave the draft date set to June all of your players will be debuting a year earlier than IRL.

3. Mainly I use neutral park factors as a matter of personal preference. However, I do think that the park factors tend to have too strong of an impact in thistoricals. I am not sure why though. I do know that all of the park factors are calculated correctly using the Bill James method and by using the actual retrosheet seasonal data. I created the entire file of ballparks myself for the game. Ironic that I tend not to use it for my own gaming though I guess.

4. The custom weather filr is something i made for myself. A couple of other people perhaps use it as well. I set all the weather data to 80 degrees with no wind for all cities. In OOTP weather has an impact on picher performance. I tend to think that this impact is too great in a historical setting because any impact weather did have on the pitcher IRL would be implicit in his real life stats. I see better SP results using my neutral file. Basically the weather acts as an additional park factor and I don't want that.

5. It won't matter what you select for Base Potential on if you are using 3-yr recalc. t gets nullified since in 3-yr recalc both the player's current and potential ratings are updated each season based on their real life stats. they are actually updated and set to the same value each season. You must disable player development as an option though so that the players don't develop (have their ratings change) during the season. the ratings that they are updated with each year are what we want them to have for the entirety of that season.

[actionjackson]

Garlon, thanks for the thorough and comprehensive responses to my questions and pesterings. From your answers, 2 (only?) further questions have arisen:

1. Re: Disable financials due to uneven playing field. Couldn't you just equalize the markets, leaving financials in play, so that you still get to tool around with free agency, arb etc without giving certain franchises undue advantages over other franchises?

and 2. With regards to the weather thingy (which I agree 100% on - it's kind of a double whammy on pitchers that they don't need) is there a quick way to set those settings? - I'm thinking I would view the weather data file in a spreadsheet and manipulate it to 80 degrees with no wind from March to November for all cities that have been in the major leagues from 1901-present, rather than constantly changing the settings in-game at the start of each season.

Thanks again for your responses and patience.

EDIT: WRT weather, do you also set rain to 0 for all stadiums/cities in order to completely remove weather effect? Like you say the pitchers (usually in OOTP) have already paid in their career stats, so they probably shouldn't have to pay again. Thanks Garlon.

[actionjackson]

Just a gentle nudge of this thread by your friendly neighbourhood Canuck.

[Garlon]

actionjackson-

1. Turning off financials is a personal preference of mine. A couple years ago someone didn't like the fact that OOTP used a modern-style financial system for all time periods....i.e. Babe Ruth making $20mil per season. So then someone came up with some sort of financial file and attendance file. I'm not a big fan of it. Plus, I just don't like dealing with all the contracts and FA each offseason when I do manage a team... I like to try to build my team through the draft only and never even make any trades...altho I leave the trades on for the CPU teams.

2. You can find the weather file on your computer probably here:
C:\Documents and Settings\Owner\My Documents\Out of the Park Developments\OOTP Baseball 10\database
You can open it in a spreadsheet and change the values globally and save it a copy of it and ten swap it with the original file. You can try 70 degrees instead of 80. I don't know if that would make any difference at all though as long as it is the same value everywhere.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Jah

I thought this issue was finally addressed in OOTP X, according to the features page...

Improved Historical Simulation
...new total modifiers were added and the accuracy of the initial season was improved so that single-season replays are now more realistic.

Don't believe everything you read. They also wrote that historical pitchers would import with their real pitches, but it doesn't happen.

[68pirate]

Garlon,
Could the same thing be accomplished by changing all of my stadiums to "dome" instead of adjusting the weather file?

[Garlon]

Here's a modified weather file. Everything is set to 70 degrees, instead of 80 degrees.

The file is titled weather3, but to use it in OOTP you must change the name to weather and swap it out with the file currently in the game.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Garlon

Here's a modified weather file. Everything is set to 70 degrees, instead of 80 degrees.

The file is titled weather3, but to use it in OOTP you must change the name to weather and swap it out with the file currently in the game.

Goes without saying and often gets said, but make a backup of the original weather file first in case you want to go back to it. Re-name said copy to "original weather" or whatever lets you know that these are the original weather settings for the database, in case for some reason you want to switch back and you should probably move it out of the database folder. I use the OOTP 10 folder for my originals.

Being a Canuck who was raised with the metric system and degrees celsius rather than fahrenheit, I went for 25 celsius (77 fahrenheit) with no rain or wind from March to November in every city that I use that has a baseball stadium. Of course if your universes have baseball in all twelve months (and why shouldn't they? ), you need to do neutral settings for all twelve. It was funny seeing the "Windy City" all of a sudden mysteriously have no wind... Well I guess you had to be there. Should stadia get added due to the addition of a minor league(s) once I have enough players that it would make sense to do so, I'll get back in there and fiddle around. As Garlon says the temperature setting probably makes no never mind, provided it's "not too hot and not too cold". Now where have I heard that before?

[68pirate]

Thanks for the weather file. Does anybody know the answer to my question about making all stadiums domed stadiums? Will this have the same effect as changing the weather file?

[HonusWagner]

I dont know if someone has posted about this: but I am running a fictional league and importing historical players. Not a lot, just a few to spice things up. I find though that their potential ratings in the Editor section tend to change and they wind up not performing even remotely close to their RL stats. Is there a way to control that? What causes that to happen? I have had other imported hist players do really well, while others retire young because they suck (cy young, honus wagner retiring in their 20s). Is it possible to do what I am trying?

i dont care so much about individual season accuracy but long term sim accuracy (career)

[HonusWagner]

And what is meant by `recalc every 3 years`?

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by HonusWagner

And what is meant by `recalc every 3 years`?

It creates ratings based on a 3 year period in their historical stats. The year before the one you're playing, the current year and the year after the one you're playing.

Somehow that is supposed to make the replay stats for the current year come out more realistically.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by HonusWagner

I dont know if someone has posted about this: but I am running a fictional league and importing historical players. Not a lot, just a few to spice things up. I find though that their potential ratings in the Editor section tend to change and they wind up not performing even remotely close to their RL stats. Is there a way to control that? What causes that to happen?

It's caused by variation in player development. The way to control it is to reduce the variability number. The default is 100, the maximum 200. I use 25, which means that changes leaguewide in the players' potentials only occur one quarter as often. This still allows some booms and busts, but on the whole there will be many fewer 'surprises' in player development. Since 80% of those surprises are disappointments, this helps to control my blood pressure.

[J.HenryWaugh]

Altho like most OOTPers in that I use this game primarily for my fictional Universal Baseball Association, I had to dabble in running a historical league. I am through the aughts, heading into 1910, and I am seeing some players on teams I didn't expect. (Oh, and I am using whatever the heck comes with this game, no lahman or other db).

I have the option "automatically import historical rookies" checked, but I assmumed they would end up on the team for whom they played. Or does OOTP know things that I don't?

Such as, when did Shoeless Joe Jackson play for the Washington Senators? Tris Speaker with the Reds? Ty Cobb playing RF for the Phillies? I checked these players and each one is playing for the team that drafted him. Was player movement so hectic in those early days that players rarely put on the uniform of the team that drafted him?

I have trades enabled, just because I think it will be fun to see all of the "what-ifs" that makes this game so fascinating. After all, look at real baseball. What if George Herman Ruth had never been sold to New York (no Yankee dynasty? no murderers row?)? What is Joe Morgan had stayed with Houston and George Foster with the Giants (no Big Red Machine?)? What if Lou Brock had not been traded to St. Louis, or Steve Carlton to the Phillies?

Anyway, is the game's database smarter than I realized or completely off its rocker? I just d/l'd the lahman db, would that be the better option?

[Curtis]

J. Henry, it's been awhile since I looked — is there an option seperate from 'import historical rookies' that says something like 'assign rookies to historical team'?

[J.HenryWaugh]

Originally Posted by Curtis

J. Henry, it's been awhile since I looked — is there an option seperate from 'import historical rookies' that says something like 'assign rookies to historical team'?

Curtis: I remember that option too, but I did not find it. I assume it would be in the same area as the "import historical rookies" section, but it ain't, nor could I find it elsewhere.

I have started a second historical game using lahman's db. We'll see if that improves things. Maybe the first one will end being my MLB Hysterical league.