Orcin's Brave New World

[Orcin]

Cincinnati Reds (63-93) @ St. Louis Cardinals (93-63)
The Reds are 30 games behind us, and they are not even the worst team in our pitiful division. Their abysmal pitching staff is complimented by a truly horrible offense. To add insult to injury, attendance is down and they are projected to show a financial loss. Their demanding/economizer owner was expecting a profitable .500 season, so management changes are probably coming in a week or so.


September 27, 2021: G157 (94-63, 1st, +18G)

Star: STL SP Gerald Thompson 8.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (7-0, 2.36 ERA)
Oscar Taveras was 4-4 in the game. Alfaro’s 3-run HR provided all of the scoring.

We couldn’t let Thompson finish the shutout because we didn’t want the poor kid’s arm to fall off. Is there any doubt now that he should be in the post-season rotation?


September 28, 2021: G158 (95-63, 1st, +18G)

Star: STL 1B Kyle Cooper 4-6, 5 RBI, 3 RS
This was Odorizzi’s final start so he will fall just short of 20 wins – still a great season.
T-Mick tweaked a hammy running the bases, so he will sit out the final four games.


September 29, 2021: G159 (96-63, 1st, +18G)

Star: STL SP Taijuan Walker 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

LF Dutch Deol injured his elbow on a defensive play. He was diagnosed with a sprain and a three-week recovery time is estimated. This will probably lead us to put You (not you) to the post-season roster.


Boston wrapped up the A.L. wild card, leaving only the A.L. West to be decided on the final weekend. The Astros and Angels remain tied at 82-77; they each lost three straight games earlier this week.

[Orcin]

San Francisco Giants (74-85) @ St. Louis Cardinals (96-63)
This series still means something to us. We have a slight chance to catch the Dodgers for home field and we need to stay ahead of Philadelphia. The pitching rotation is set up for the playoffs with Odorizzi and Walker having just pitched and other two spots to be determined by the performance of the three starters in this series.


October 1, 2021: G160 (96-64, 1st, +18G)

Star: SF C Buster Posey 2-run HR in the 16th inning for GWRBI
Oscar Taveras was 5-7 with two doubles. Good to see him getting hot.
Gerald Thompson was named Pacific Coast league Pitcher of the Year.


October 2, 2021: G161 (97-64, 1st, +19G)

Star: STL DH Tarou Sano 3-4, 2 RBI
Victor Sharp (.361-17-62) received the Pacific Coast League Outstanding Player Award.


October 3, 2021: G162 (98-64, 1st, +19G)

Star: STL SP Gerald Thompson 8.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, W (8-0, 2.22 ERA)
Thompson is certainly making the playoff pitching assignments an interesting exercise.
The win gives us home field advantage over the Phillies (97-65).
The Angels won a one-game playoff over the Astros to decide the A.L. West.

[Orcin]

Final 2021 Regular Season Standings





Final Power Rankings
Teams (Total Points, Tendency):
1) New York Yankees (122.8, o)
2) Minnesota Twins (118.6, o)
3) St. Louis Cardinals (114.9, +)
4) Philadelphia Phillies (112.8, +)
5) San Diego Padres (108.4, +)
6) Los Angeles Dodgers (106.0, --)
7) Chicago White Sox (99.9, +)
8) Boston Red Sox (98.2, -)


2021 Regular Season Statistical Leaders

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Internal Analysis – 2021 Final Regular Season Report

Executive Summary



The team finished strong, winning 35 of the last 47 games. We only improved by one game over last season, but post-season results are the important ones around here. We finished in the top 3 in the N.L in every major statistical category, with a plus 216 runs scored/allowed (differential > 162, i.e. one run per game, is very good). The bullpen, which was a disaster early in the season, finished as the #1 unit in our league.

Financially, we were #3 in attendance, #4 in gate revenue, and #3 in merchandising among the 30 MLB teams – a strong base to support our large (#3) budget. We were ranked 7th in payroll at $136M, which was $4M below my pre-season target thanks to some mid-season payroll pruning.

Player analysis and stats to follow:


Pitchers




Jake Odorizzi paid a big dividend in the first year of his 6-year, $114M contract. He finished among the N.L. leaders in wins, ERA, strikeouts, batting average against, FIP, and he was tied with Taijuan Walker for the league lead with three shutouts.

Taijuan Walker was 11-8 with a 3.23 ERA in 23 starts for the Cardinals. He is a solid #2 starter, and signed for 4 more years at $14M. He will turn 30 next year.

Trevor Rosenthal surprised everyone with his performance, turning in his best season since 2016. He really baffled scout Dan Kantrovitz, who calls Rosenthal a con artist that has fooled people into thinking he has talent. I believe the truth is somewhere between this season and con artist.

Jose Flores was placed in the rotation early in the season, and had a really good first year. The scouting report implies that he still has room to improve – a lot of room.

Gerald Thompson was the story of our team in August and September. He might be the hottest pitcher in baseball over those two months, and it is impossible to leave him off the playoff roster now. He seems certain to be a star, and will be in our starting rotation next season.

Ray Chambers did not pitch well for the Cardinals, and was only 4-4 with a 5.42 ERA at Memphis. He is arbitration eligible with an affordable estimate and two minor league options, so he will return for next season as a candidate for the sixth starter slot.

Michael Wacha pitched pretty well over the course of the season, and his replacement level numbers are deceiving. However, he was overpaid at $5.5M on a contract that we inherited this season. Wacha will be a free agent, and we would consider bringing him back at a lower number.

Jesse Biddle will also be a free agent and does not figure into our plans at the moment. I would like to find a young left-handed starter with potential to develop at AAA instead of investing in another bottom-tier free agent. Left-handed pitching is an organizational weakness at the present time.

Kohl Stewart is the other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. He was 4-5 with a 4.78 ERA in 14 starts at Memphis. He is out of minor league options and has virtually no chance to make our active roster next April. He is likely to be traded this winter.

The playoff rotation, at least for the first series, will be Odorizzi, Walker, Rosenthal, and Gerald Thompson. Jose Flores has experience pitching out of the bullpen, and will give us a good power option from the left side in the late innings.

Rex Brothers is rated as the #4 closer in MLB. That’s about right in my opinion. He has an option on next season at $8.6M. He will be 34 years old next year, but I still expect him to reject the option and chase another big long-term contract in the open market. He shows no sign of decline.

Mark Montgomery was a very reliable setup man, and can close if needed against a right-handed threat. He is signed for next season at $3M.

Marcus Stroman was acquired from Atlanta at the trade deadline to provide bullpen help down the stretch. He appeared in 14 games for us with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. I think he is better than that, and I will not hesitate to use him in a key playoff situation. He is a free agent after the season.

Darryl Chambers was simply amazing in his rookie season. He is probably the 7th inning guy in the post-season. He could be the setup man next year if Brothers leaves.

Dalton Friend has a normal year for him, but he was very effective against left-handed hitters. He probably won’t face a right-handed batter in the post-season, but he might get into every game.

Pedro Solis was very effective in a middle relief role. I hope that I don’t see too much of him in the post-season.

Michael Wacha will be the final pitcher in the post-season bullpen. If I go to him for more than one or two batters, I have a tired bullpen and/or a bad starter – either of which is a problem.


Position Players



I will discuss the starters in the batting order sequence, followed by the playoff roster bench players.

J.P. Crawford led the team in WAR despite playing in only 91 games due to three different injuries (one was DTD). He is a 5-star player when healthy. We don’t have another shortstop in our organization with the potential to replace him.

Kolten Wong had another fine year, his seventh as a starter in St. Louis. It will likely be his last season here, as he is seeking a huge payday at age 31. There is no reason to platoon him with Barreto in the playoffs because Wong hits lefties equally well.

Oscar Taveras finished the season on a hot streak. Let’s hope it continues because he could literally carry the team if it does.

Jorge Alfaro will catch every game in the playoffs. Careful consideration was given to his role for next season, and it has been decided that he should catch whenever able with a goal to start 140 games. He will rest on the off days but he could pinch-hit or DH.

Tarou Sano was a .225 hitter with the bases empty. However, he hit .313 with a .570 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. This is a concentration issue, and goes back to his very low work ethic. We have to appeal to his very high desire to win in order to correct this deficiency, but I would put up with a lot for 32 HR and 90 RBI.

Kyle Cooper ended up with a solid season and finally settled into the role for which he was acquired (protection behind Sano). He will be back as the starter next season but will face a stiff challenge from prospect Josh Williams.

Trey “T-Mick” Michalczewski returned to his natural third base position after Ryder Jones was traded for Cooper, and finished with an excellent season. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility – same as Crawford. It will be tough to pay both of them.

Dutch Deol is out for at least part of the playoffs after a mediocre season. We will platoon Vance Knox and Min-Zhong You in the post-season because there are no better options available. Deol has an arbitration estimate approaching $6M and I question whether he is worth that much money. Victor Sharp (AAA Player of the Year) might get a legitimate shot at this job next spring with Knox available as a safety net.

Albert Almora was acquired to play solid defense in center field, improve the team speed, and hopefully hit enough to justify his presence in the lineup batting ninth. He handled 235 chances without an error, stole 23 bases, and hit .274 with a 101 OPS+. So, he checked off all the boxes for his $2M salary, even though he missed six weeks with a couple of “effort injuries”. The 2-year, $5M extension that we negotiated in May looks like a bargain right now.

Steve Bean is an outstanding backup catcher. Unfortunately, he wants to be paid like a starter. He could be the starter on a lot of teams, and we might check his trade value in the off-season. He will be our key left-handed pinch-hitter in the post-season.

Franklin Barreto was having a big year when he was acquired, and kept it up when he replaced an injured Kolten Wong down the stretch. He will be our right-handed bat off the bench for the playoff run. He will have a far more important role next year.

Knox, You (not you), and utility infielder Hector Rios will fill out the post-season roster.

[Orcin]

2021 Divisional Series




Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Now, we begin to evaluate everything that has been done over the past six months. The goal was not just reaching the playoffs. The goal is to win a championship, and it starts with this best-of-five divisional series against the N.L. East champs.

Philadelphia hit 247 home runs, second in the majors, led by rookie 1B Pablo Martinez (.288-29-79). The middle of their murderer’s row is all left-handed, which means that Jose Flores will likely see some critical game situations out of the bullpen. The Phillies #5 pitching staff includes SP Neftali Felix (11-4, 2.87), SP Kyle Serrano (16-7, 3.31) and closer Al Alburquerque (39 SV).

Philadelphia was 31-26 after July 31, and there was some local criticism of GM Ron Wotus for lack of in-season moves to address injuries. The budget room was there.

[AstaSyneri]

Quivering with anticipation . Thanks for putting us on the torture rack with the executive summary. Now I really can't wait for game 1 to begin.

[Orcin]

October 6, 2021: DCS Game 1 at St. Louis

Neftali Feliz out-dueled Jake Odorizzi in game one of the series, allowed only two hits before leaving in the seventh. Odorizzi struck out 12, but an unearned run in the sixth proved costly.






They don’t call them the Bronx Bombers for nothing!

[Orcin]

October 7, 2021: DCS Game 2 at St. Louis

Oscar Taveras doubled to drive in J.P. Crawford from second base for a walk-off win in game two. Jose Flores pitched four scoreless innings in relief of starter Taijuan Walker to pick up his first career post-season win. Taveras and Trey Michalczewski each had three hits for St. Louis.





The Los Angeles teams are both up 2-0. Boston muscled up to even their series at 1.

[LordTC]

Great as always. Really enjoying the series. Good luck in the rest of the playoffs!

[AstaSyneri]

What is going on there between Boston and New York? Show me yours, I'll show you mine? Using magic Bats of Hitting +5?

Nice job by Flores - and good to see you equalize the series. Now on to the pivotal game 3 (I can almost hear the commentators...)

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by AstaSyneri

Now on to the pivotal game 3 (I can almost hear the commentators...)

Yeah... I hope not!

[Orcin]

October 9, 2021: DCS Game 3 at Philadelphia

Rookie first baseman Pablo Martinez drove in three runs on three hits, including a double and a solo homer, to lead the Phillies to victory in game three. Philadelphia starter Kyle Serrano struck out 11 to give the Phillies a 2-1 series lead.









Facing elimination in game four (round 1 is a best-of-five series), we had to choose between starting a rookie on the road and using our ace at 86%. The rookie was 8-0, so we decided to go with the hot and well-rested arm against Phillies ace Neftali Feliz.

[Orcin]

October 10, 2021: DCS Game 4 at Philadelphia

The Phillies jumped on rookie Gerald Thompson for six runs in the first three innings, and hold on for a 7-4 win in game four. Philadelphia held St. Louis to eleven runs in the four-game series. Left-handed starter-turned-reliever Drew Pomeranz appeared in all four games and did not allow a run while striking out nine in six innings of work.

And, in a flash, our season is over.




The Angels advance to face the winner of game 5 between the Yankees and Red Sox.




The favored Yankees and Dodgers win game five to reach the LCS.

[Westheim]

Wow. That sure was over quickly.

Maybe the NL Central was even weaker than it seemed?

[MacIsaacM]

Tough break for the rookie. Real tough break. Shame after what seems to have been such a great season.

[Mike45]

agreed with the above - although I bet the rookie has a monster season next year starting as the #4-5 SP

[Bub13]

Damn, tough loss. Looks like they had your number all year, though.

Great read, btw. Been reading this thread a couple of times and picking up lots of little pointers and tips, especially regarding financials (seeing as I'm coming back to baseball and new to OOTP).

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Maybe the NL Central was even weaker than it seemed?

Yes, I read your comment and then remembered that Sal pointed this out a while back. I thought he was right - except for us of course.

But... I don't want to get ahead of myself. I will have my usual "morning after" comments in the morning (USA time).

[gilbertolander66]

Wondering if you have started the "What If" game yet ??
"what If" only I,--I had Not started the Rookie !

[Sal, The Barber]

As you noted at the beginning of the post on Game 4, you didn't score any runs. Where was Philadelphia's pitching rated? Your offense was top 3 in the NL?