September Swoon

[99LVAces]

I am noticing a pattern with my PT25 team concerning the pennant drive for the past several seasons. There seems to be a correction mode going down the stretch. My team consistently plays .575-.625 ball throughout the regular season but from mid-September through the final game I struggle to play .500 I started in late April, it's my first year, and I did not notice this until about 5-6 weeks ago. This season I kept an eye on the other teams in my league with similar winning % and it's happening to them as well.

Does anyone have insight into this? I'm not crazy, something is happening and everything I have tried with my pitching and lineups does not seem to matter. I will continue to monitor this but I'm starting to lose faith in the randomness.

[Socali]

We have no trouble believing our team is a .625 team and become incredulous when it goes on a .400 bender. Maybe the truth is where its at presently and not either extreme.

[99LVAces]

True, but when the bender happens at the same time season after season...one has to wonder. I take you have not seen this pattern?

[Socali]

You're not saying it is only happening to you, so that's good. As to systemic algorithms that engineer as you are suggesting, maybe it's true (or not). But, as long as it is the same across the board then it is what it is.

I get though, that you might just be curious as to others noticing the patterns you are suggesting. My mindset is I do not trust anything implicitly especially when money is involved (on all sides).

OOTP (and PT) is astonishingly a beautiful game and the less money you spend on it the less those swoons impact you.

[RunninYakAngler]

Regression to the Mean?

I've had several seasons, usually in Diamond, that a team of mine will start out like 2 - 15, but eventually they'll end up around .500, which is about where they should be.

I've also had the great starts like a 15-5, only to end up relegated with only 60+ wins.

[99LVAces]

Reading through a great many of these forum posts...randomness v algorithms is a contentious topic. I suppose I have weighed in on the subject without meaning to. I agree OOTP and PT are an amazing accomplishment for lifetime baseball gamers like myself. I grew up on table top baseball games, dice, cards and spinners, lol. Perhaps because of that I am more in tuned to notice irregularities, or should I say...regularities.

[Kushiel]

It happens often. I see it both as the super, super Mojave hot Saturday and the Titanic arctic ice Saturday. My teams and others, there is no discrimination, we just have to deal with it.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by Kushiel

we just have to deal with it.

Rage quitting is a reasonable choice.

[Kushiel]

Originally Posted by bailey

Rage quitting is a reasonable choice.

We have seen that. But usually by players that were never going to be long term anyway. They are butterflies of the gaming world sampling many flowers but never finding that really sweet nectar.

It is much more satisfying for the long-term player to hang around and gripe.

Quitting is more concerning though, when done after much thought is given and the player just does not come back next year. These players usually have played longer. I think that players that never come here or Discord fall more into this group.

These are my opinions and mean absolutely nothing in the scope of breaking world news.

[daves]

Many teams look to improve their team at the end of the week, especially with the new cards from Thursday TWIPT. If you have the same team on Saturday as you did on Monday that might explain the swoon?


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[99LVAces]

Originally Posted by bailey

Rage quitting is a reasonable choice.

I just lost a game 5 tournament (best of 5) giving up a 12 run lead after 6 innings. The urge to rage quit was strong, so strong, LOL. Thanks for weighing in TROLL

[99LVAces]

Originally Posted by Kushiel

We have seen that. But usually by players that were never going to be long term anyway. They are butterflies of the gaming world sampling many flowers but never finding that really sweet nectar.

It is much more satisfying for the long-term player to hang around and gripe.

Quitting is more concerning though, when done after much thought is given and the player just does not come back next year. These players usually have played longer. I think that players that never come here or Discord fall more into this group.

These are my opinions and mean absolutely nothing in the scope of breaking world news.

Saturday forecast is hot and dry desert like conditions. Biologists have warned butterfly owners to keep their pets indoors due to the ravenous bats reported in the area.

Thank you for your insightful comments which contributed nothing to the thread TROLL II

[rburgh]

The people you have been calling trolls are regular and thoughtful contributors to this forum. You would do well to learn from them instead of tagging them with a hateful epithet.

[Kushiel]

Originally Posted by 99LVAces

Saturday forecast is hot and dry desert like conditions. Biologists have warned butterfly owners to keep their pets indoors due to the ravenous bats reported in the area.

Thank you for your insightful comments which contributed nothing to the thread TROLL II

Aren't you a truly nice person with such fantastic insight? We appreciate you actually using this forum.

[HRBaker]

I honestly think most of this scenario is due to teams improving themselves as the season progresses. If your one of the teams that doesn't, then your going to be less effective near the end.

In seasons where I earned a lot of PPs, I would improve my team as much as possible near the end in order to try and influence the playoffs.

[Kushiel]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

I honestly think most of this scenario is due to teams improving themselves as the season progresses. If your one of the teams that doesn't, then your going to be less effective near the end.

In seasons where I earned a lot of PPs, I would improve my team as much as possible near the end in order to try and influence the playoffs.

I absolutely agree that teams try to improve during the week. That improvement often does indeed affect the late season. But not always.

It does not explain the other half of the September puzzle. That is the team that really sucks early in the week and does nothing to improve. Then he or she wins 20+ games on Saturday and storms into the playoffs as a wildcard often winning the WS on Sunday to boot.

I have been in both scenarios many times through the years of PT. It is a 2 way street. I will continue believing that it is an adjustment to teams that the RNG's impacted too far early. This is why I say that we just have to deal with it.

[kq76]

99LVAces,

When someone says something that may trigger us, we need to try to make the decision to not let it get to us, for it to roll off of us. Calling them a troll isn't going to help matters. Who knows, maybe they are trying to rile you up and maybe they're not, but it's definitely our choice how we react to them.

And when someone offers up a perfectly reasonable explanation for what you're seeing, like daves did, then you really need to stop and consider it. Maybe something may sound reasonable, but you see reason why it's not applicable, then you state that reason and wait to see if a better explanation is offered up.

For example, if I was in your shoes, after reading what daves posted I would have said something like, "Oh, good point! I'll try to keep that in mind.". Or maybe I would have said, "But I swear I'm trying to improve my team throughout the week too. Maybe I'm just not as successful.".

Discourse isn't always easy, but we need to be prepared for people to disagree with us and for them to point out things we might not want to hear. If you can counter their point with a good point of your own, then great, but resorting to name-calling doesn't help anyone, especially not yourself.

[99LVAces]

Originally Posted by rburgh

The people you have been calling trolls are regular and thoughtful contributors to this forum. You would do well to learn from them instead of tagging them with a hateful epithet.

Thoughtful contributor encouraging rage quitting. hmmmm

[99LVAces]

Originally Posted by Kushiel

Aren't you a truly nice person with such fantastic insight? We appreciate you actually using this forum.

Thank you, you make my point. You had nothing to contribute to my subject but still found it necessary to ridule me. I appreciate your contribution to my thread as well.

[99LVAces]

Originally Posted by daves

Many teams look to improve their team at the end of the week, especially with the new cards from Thursday TWIPT. If you have the same team on Saturday as you did on Monday that might explain the swoon?


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Thank you Daves I appreciate your response to the original post. I was going to wait until later in Sep of the current season but given the additional chatter I will reply early. As the swoon begins again I have been monitoring my opponents lineups and checking the game logs. All so far are fielding the same lineups as in April.

I added two players after a horrendous start to my first season in gold and it paid off, I reached .602 on Sep 1, currently .589 having lost 3 of the last 4. I suspect the pattern will follow as outlined above in my opening post.

I will post once more at the final day of the season and then I am done with it. Controversy is hard to deal with it, it's much easier to attack the accuser.

"Science is true whether or not you believe in it" Neil deGrasse Tyson