At What Age Are You Giving Up On Prospects?

[kq76]

For extension and free agent purposes, I group players into 4 age groups: <=25, 26-30, 31-35, and 36+. The first group are prospects, the second are in their prime and unless they get injured they are not likely to have bad years, the third group are past their peak, but their fall shouldn't be too steep, while the last group might have some good years left in them, but you really don't know when they will fall off the cliff. It's worked out pretty well I think and it also seems to make sense given the first 2 charts in this article.

But I do question when I should give up on prospects. I've long thought that if a batter doesn't look like they can crack a MaL roster by age 26 (not even as a starter, but as a bench player) then it's time to give up on them and make room for someone else who eventually might. But pitchers I gave more leeway, like maybe making that decision at age 30. I don't remember reading anything that said pitchers definitely develop later that batters, but I just had it in my head that that was the case.

Then the other day I read this article and it made me question whether there really is an aging difference between batters and pitchers and whether I was wrong not to keep or cut bait them both at the same age. There are also some interesting conclusions at the end of that article that I don't really want to go into here as they're not really related to this topic, but if you're interested in player aging and the K% trend, I'd recommend giving it a read.

What do you all think? At what age do you give up on prospects, and is it different based on whether they're batters or pitchers?

[Bluenoser]

Long and Short of it for me when it comes to prospects - age has nothing to do with it. It's all performance/improvement based.

If I have a prospect with high potential but after a couple years is showing no signs of developing into something, anything useable, - he's gone. Any prospect who doesn't start developing, start showing signs of becoming something within a couple of years, they're gone.

If they show positive signs, I hang onto them until they're either ready for the Majors/AAA as a callup, or they stop developing. Roster space is valuable to me, I don't like wasting it on no chance prospects. I rarely keep my minor league teams full. I never saw the point in having 20+ pitchers at 1 level. Even if you micro manage they're playing time, some of them just aren't going to get much.

Age is not something I'd ever go by really. Some kids get drafted at 18, some are already in their early 20's. Performance and growth are key for me.

[kq76]

So are you looking at each and every prospect? What are you basing your decisions on, all stats, all ratings, or a blend?

It sounds like you're willing to give up on a guy who came into your system at a young age (16-18) if they're not producing by like 21. Is that true? I can't help but think they might still develop from 21-25, as long as they're not absolutely terrible and they're not taking up a spot that would be better used by someone else.

How many rounds are you drafting? I usually only draft 5-9, but maybe you draft a lot more rounds.

[Bluenoser]

20 round draft, no players under 18.

Yes, I look at every prospect, basing it on stats and ratings. I don't give up on players, I just don't prolong the "you're not going to make it" decision. It hasn't back fired on me yet. Maybe one day it will, and I'll just live the fact that I made the wrong decision on that player.

I know I used the word "couple" above, but I do not mean exactly 2 years, could be 3 or possibly 4 before I make a decision. Every player is different, and I take my time evaluating them. I go through each one and take the time to really look at them and their performance/growth. It's not a quick glance and heave ho

I don't know, I just never look at or worry about age. Performance and growth - they show it or I show them the door.

[OutS|der]

At 30

[FlyTheW1104]

I'll get in trouble for saying this but if a prospect has an avoid K below 45 I'll give up on them pretty early on as long as I can get a good return. Otherwise it really depends on their defense and.... of course... what I can get in return for them.

[billyray1984]

To me, there's a difference between giving up on a prospect and cutting them to make space for others and leveraging a struggling prospect while they still have value.

If I have a prospect that doesn't hold much trade value (i.e. he isn't in the top 200), but he has org value (a usable bat at a SS or C, a potential starter, etc.) I will usually keep them on my propsect shortlist, check up on them and manually manage their strategy and development until they are 25. If they still stumble in AA at that age, I'll give them back to the AI and possibly try to recycle them into younger propsects or keep them as depth if they serve a purpose. Depth in the minors is useful to insure your teams don't have a 0.200 winning percentage year after year.

If a prospect holds a lot of value, I will be a lot quicker to leverage them for usable major league pieces with a lot of control or more advanced prospects if they flounder. This is especially true of pitchers, international free agents or high school draft picks. Especially if you play a small market team, there's a lot value in leveraging the farm system for cheap controllable assets since you can't extend your core every year if everyone hits arb at the same time, let alone participate in FA for star players. I define floundering as follows :

- For pitchers, if their WHIP and FIP- still suck after 3 years of rookie ball for HS/IFA or 2 years of A/A+ ball for college draftees. For IFA, the leash can even be shorter since these players are so far away from the majors.

- For hitters, if their WRC is still very low (70 or below) after the same amount of time and/or they haven't developed any power and/or their plate skills still suck (K% higher than 35%).

[Pelican]

I agree that age is not the only factor, but it is a major factor in my decisions. It really is a case-by-case determination, looking at a variety of things. For example, I might keep some AAAA types on my AAA roster, even if they are in their thirties, for depth. But I don't want older guys in the way of prospects who need playing time. And I don't want guys over 30, or really over 25, on my AA farm team.

Pitchers can be different. Injuries, such as Tommy John surgery, can make a difference. A guy may fizzle as a SP in the minors, but then dominate with his two-pitch arsenal as a RP. I try to give them time to work it out.

A principle I adhere to (mostly), which I learned in this forum, is to avoid sending a guy down a level in the minors. It really should be "up or out". If a guy hits at high A but not at AA, the solution is not to send him back to high A. It might be another year at AA. There are exceptions, such as injuries, or guys much younger than the rest of the level/league. But the point is that promotions should be earned, and players should perform at that level.

[Pelican]

Also, thinking as a GM, keeping older guys is limited by roster slots and running out of options. The financial side of baseball makes it hard to hold onto older guys out of options as insurance. That's why they tend to bounce around between teams. Or they become Rule V guys. Technically I am talking about service time and not age, but older guys will have more service time.