The thread where you celebrate your PT success or complain about your failures...

[Tinkerman]

Originally Posted by DotDash

Sorry to only post negatively...

I wouldn't call that negative, you're seeking answers.

From what I've seen, it seems that there is huge variation and randomness to BABIP. In comparison, HR power/suppression are much more reliable stats. In most cases, it seems that BABIP is behind standout performances, good or bad.

[HRBaker]

One variable that is HUGE and no one ever talks about is the fact that you are playing against totally different teams from week to week. Since everyone is randomized into a new league each "season" your competition can vary significantly. Add this to the normal variance of a single game, and you get results like we experience; reverse sweeps and unexpected standings.

The control we have over our teams is limited. As mentioned, you can have a 110-52 season one week and find the same team (the following week) go 81-81.

How do you fix it?

No good answers, but some kind of logic code that would pair up teams to similar "talent" ratings would certainly help. Right now I think all it does is match up teams with similar win-loss records and that doesn't work well.


(PS: and I'm not sure it even does that)

[Magus978]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

I was hoping we'd meet up eventually, but alas we both lost 5-4 in 4th round. Don't know about you, but I was 4-2 up.

At least you didn't graft for a month to get into the drafts, only to have just about the 2 worst drafts of the month in the main events. I didn't have time to be particularly salty about it yesterday, but today I am very annoyed. It's exactly what I feared would happen.

Didn't bother keeping tabs on it because I knew some BS was gonna happen and I wouldn't get the deep run that I needed to make PTMS.

<WARNING: Hellmuth-ian rant incoming. Do your research on the "Poker Brat" Phil Hellmuth Jr. if you don't know what I'm getting at >

Funny how it ended up going exactly how I knew it would, isn't it? Despite a slump that still has me doubting everything I legitimately feel I'm one of the five best players in silver, and as per usual I get jobbed out way before I feel I should. Real sick stuff. Borderline insane.

Only good to come out of yesterday was a late night pull of FL Christian Scott, which I'm trying to sell to fuel my "Magus is on tilt yet again and demands blood" fund. (EDIT: Can't even do that either. I swear if it ain't the bad tournament form, it's gonna be the idiot undercutters that drive me insane.)

[bailey]

Playing silver for the 4th time next week. I don't care; I'd rather be a top 12 player in silver than a bottom feeder in gold.

I will save my points and not change my team (25 live mission rewards and Ron Santo)., until the PT Elite mission drops next November-ish.

Note to HRB: Real bad luck for the Altoona Rail Kings to face another 139-win team in the finals. At least it was the finals and not the Division Series.

[HRBaker]

Originally Posted by bailey

Note to HRB: Real bad luck for the Altoona Rail Kings to face another 139-win team in the finals. At least it was the finals and not the Division Series.

Yes. I somehow knew how it was going to turn out. I lost the series.

I must be psychic.

[Magus978]

Welp, looks like Saturday's last 16 silver run was enough to get me into my first PTMS. All those people who missed out are gonna freak when they see that I'm gonna be running my silver combinators since I have nothing else. Holy crap, whoever I get in that gets the freest of wins

[DotDash]

Thanks HRBaker and Tinkerman for the responses to my last post and the questions I asked.
This game just gets to me sometimes (probably because being even remotely competitive requires such an investment in time that seeing it be for nought is extra frustrating, especially when the reasons are unclear - to me at least.)
Like this last week, my record in Silver was a completely pedestrian 80-82.
Yet when I look at the underlying statistics, my team seems to have played quite well - best FIP and 7th best in runs scored.

So the last three weeks have been: 1) 107 wins but no promotion to gold, 2) 77 wins due to underperformance of half of my roster, 3) 80 wins despite being a roughly top-5 team statistically.

This, on top of bad pack luck (average value of 48K on my last 10 non-live Perfect pulls...) makes it pretty difficult to still find the enjoyment in what was once a nearly 'Perfect' game mode. For context, I've been playing since the first trial of PT which was launched halfway through an IRL season IIRC, and I still think that iteration and maybe the first two full years after struck the best balance between effort put in and fun received. (And I was somehow able to influence / predict my team's performances a lot better then, too, despite probably having fewer methods available to do so like stadium parameters and loads of sliders.)

Anyway, best of luck to all players grinding it out on a weekly basis. Hope you fare better than I do (but not too much better )

[HRBaker]

Commodores; .500 season and will remain in Gold.

Classics; .500 season and will remain in Bronze.

Stars; Wildcard chance at moving up to Silver.

UPDATE: Got by Wildcard, but lost in Division Series - will stay in Bronze.

Rail Kings: Should move to Iron "IF" they don't get beat by a Wildcard.

UPDATE: Lost World Series but will jump to Iron.

Overview

The top three teams are pretty much marooned into the Gold-Silver-Bronze template for the balance of this version, which will most likely result in being abandoned at the All-Star break.

On the other hand, the recently started Rail Kings, with an overall record of 374-112, will continue their slow march to whatever level they, too, will find as their saturation point. If they continue their initial luck and keep climbing, I'll stick with them, but if they falter into the G-S-B template mentioned above, then I'll wait till v26 to see if I want to try again.

I really can't stress enough how F2P players should have an option to play each other. I understand that folks that spend money want the "chicken fodder" to beat up on, but an additional option to play each other would go far in keeping us involved longer.

[bailey]

Started 13-1. (I wonder how the team that went 1-13 ended up.)
Won exactly 50% of the remaining games to squeeze myself into a wild card spot. Reversed swept out of the Division Series. I thought the Wild Card team was supposed to win those, not the conference wins leader!
Will repeat silver for the 5th week. Stubbornly planning no changes.

[Tinkerman]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

From what I've seen, it seems that there is huge variation and randomness to BABIP. In comparison, HR power/suppression are much more reliable stats. In most cases, it seems that BABIP is behind standout performances, good or bad.

Almost as soon as I said this, my team's homerun production went weird and unreliable. Go figure.

[DotDash]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

Almost as soon as I said this, my team's homerun production went weird and unreliable. Go figure.

I know it's frowned upon, but besides the impact of team chemistry (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=356080), I am convinced that there are hidden factors impacting team performance - on both the hitting and pitching side, and possibly even game outcomes directly. The variances are so wild that players lose all semblance of what their ratings say they should perform like.

This season is only halfway done, but the outcome is already clear again, as my hitters are experiencing another collective off year. I am leading the league in ERA, and somehow even have a run differential of +42, but like last week, I have no wins to show for it (.500 record, -5 wins Pythagorean difference.) Last week I ended up with -8 wins based on Rdiff while having the best Pitching and 7th best Hitting team in the league.

You mentioned BABIP in a previous post, but like literally what does any rating mean anymore? It's all over the place, with low BABIP rating guys having high actual BABIP, and vice versa. Same with CON and AVG, POW and ISO, etc.
There's something deeply wrong with this year's 'simulation'. It might all be down to Chemistry, it might not, but it sucks either way.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by DotDash

I am convinced that there are hidden factors impacting team performance - on both the hitting and pitching side, and possibly even game outcomes directly. The variances are so wild that players lose all semblance of what their ratings say they should perform like.

The base game relies on player development, injuries, aging, and a bell curve of talent throughout the league to produce a reasonable simulation. None of those things exist in PT, so some "adjustments" must have been made! When everyone uses the same cards, they can't all be performing to what their ratings suggest.

[DotDash]

Originally Posted by bailey

The base game relies on player development, injuries, aging, and a bell curve of talent throughout the league to produce a reasonable simulation. None of those things exist in PT, so some "adjustments" must have been made! When everyone uses the same cards, they can't all be performing to what their ratings suggest.

In years past (maybe not the previous two) I was able to track performance per player in WAR from year to year and make informed decisions on who to replace and who to keep. Now I don't know which 'version' of a player to trust.
Last 4 seasons of my Utley in Silver: 4.5, 1.6, 4.4 and 1.3 WAR (so far this year.) Jackie Robinson: 4.0, 2.1, 4.2, 1.1 (!). Helton: 2.5, 0.4, 1.3, 2.0.
Jackson Jobe: 5.1, 3.8, 5.7, 2.3. Maddux: 4.8, 4.3, 3.5, 2.5.

There was variance, but I don't think to the extent I have been reporting in this thread (although I have not analyzed how much this is impacting other users, so it might be a fluke on my end.)

[Tinkerman]

I reckon that the meta has shifted quite a bit towards stuff and contact/avoid k, which means a lot of players are a bit hit or miss now. Eye is a bit less powerful too, which also brings down the consistency levels.

[HRBaker]

Commodores; ...will remain in Gold

Classics; ...will remain in Bronze

Stars;: ...in playoffs as Wildcard. Update: Lost Conference series but will go up to Silver.

Rail Kings: in playoffs as Division winner, but team is not as dominate as previously. Update: Won World Series, will go up to Bronze.

Overview

Well, the All-Star game is July 16th, and I suspect all four teams will be mired in the "quicksand" of F2P by that time. The most PPs I have is with the Stars, but the 83k can't really buy me anything that is better than what I already have. I suppose a lucky pull might change things, but the daily effort to grab 10-12 packs a day when I get 90% duplicates is getting old too.

I keep trying to think of a way to re-surface Stanley Kuppchaser's "Our League" but I'm not sure there is enough interest to restart that idea (or something similar).

So, a few more weeks of desperate hope and then back to the Classic game until March.

[thatDoughboy]

My team is doing very well. 133-29 on the reason in RL (got the game late this year) but something I haven't seen personally in quite some time happened.



I wanted to congratulate Vanden in Rookie League .125 of the MegaDethz Hangar 18s (sick name) Not only did their team go 120 and 42 on the season, Joe DiMaggio won the AC Triple Crown. Pretty dominant performance on the year, .347 avg, 62 HRs and 147 RBI. Slashing .347/.382/.746.

[thatDoughboy]

I just learned how to do this. Sorry. I am new.

[DotDash]

So... shockingly, my Silver team which did not get promoted on the back of 107 wins a while ago limped their way into the playoffs with 88 wins (and had to play the Wildcard series despite winning the division.)

All of the other 5 division winners had more wins than my team. NONE of them reached the finals (again, high regular season wins = crap postseason.) And somehow my team ended up winning the championship against the 87 win team that steamrolled the other side of the playoff schedule.

Until this week, my team only won the Rookie league the first season after launch.
Since then, I have had teams with 119 (Stone), 100 (Iron), 93 (Bronze), 111 (Silver), and 107 (Silver) wins fail to become champions, but my least deserving team finally did it...

[LeeD]

Originally Posted by DotDash

So... shockingly, my Silver team which did not get promoted on the back of 107 wins a while ago limped their way into the playoffs with 88 wins (and had to play the Wildcard series despite winning the division.)

All of the other 5 division winners had more wins than my team. NONE of them reached the finals (again, high regular season wins = crap postseason.) And somehow my team ended up winning the championship against the 87 win team that steamrolled the other side of the playoff schedule.

Until this week, my team only won the Rookie league the first season after launch.
Since then, I have had teams with 119 (Stone), 100 (Iron), 93 (Bronze), 111 (Silver), and 107 (Silver) wins fail to become champions, but my least deserving team finally did it...

Yes, the playoffs are crazy in PT. Two weeks ago, my latest team went 140-22 in Rookie league and was swept in the Division Series by a Wild Card that ended up getting promoted after making the World Series. They did this by beating another division winner that finished 142-20.

Every time someone brings this up, someone else compares it to the LA Dodgers. Difference is that the Dodgers don't come anywhere near this level of domination. It's not at all like the Dodgers and more like Major League teams facing Rookie Ball teams. The team mentioned did not lose three straight games all season but lost all three playoff games.

Good news is that they again steamrollered Rookie league last week and lost only three total playoff games while winning the World Series. Additional good news is that another week in Rookie pulled in 100,000 PP in achievement awards and allowed me to complete the Negro League set in time for this week's foray into Stone league.

[bailey]

League play can also be dramatic. My first week in gold and my live mission reward team with 74% chemistry is 14 games under .500 heading for relegation while another live mission reward team with 73% chemistry is 14 games above .500 and headed for the playoffs.