AI Arbitration / Non-Tender Decision Making

WarningTrakPower · 07-11-2023, 08:32 AM

Is there anyway we can see some improvement to the AI decision making when it comes to arbitration / non-tender decision making?

Quite often I am seeing players who spent the entire previous season in AAA (or lower) being awarded arbitration salaries when they 100% should have been non-tendered.

Here is one player I just stumbled across on the waiver wire (out of options of course).

I have wondered if perhaps the AI teams with larger budgets / payroll flexibility do not have enough emphasis put on player performance.

Here is a batter who spent most of last season in AAA and is signed for $2m+ even though he is a replacement level player in MLB

kidd_05_u2 · 07-11-2023, 09:17 AM

I don't have a huge problem with the decisions taken by the AI here, especially when you consider these are teams with big budgets.

Griffin Canning is a young pitcher with a decent track record who had a replacement level 2023 after coming off an injury of 20 months. For 2.1mn, he is a fine keeper who can be either a decent bullpen arm or a spot starter. It is not a given that you can get a better player for that money.

Luplow raked at AAA in 2023 and was replacement level in the MLB in just a handful of ABs. If his standing in the organizational depth chart is high enough for him to be in the MLB club in April, you would keep him for 2.4mn with the budget of the Braves. Maybe he looks cheap to me because I play with the Marlins and Jorge Soler has similar ratings but a 15mn salary

WarningTrakPower · 07-11-2023, 09:22 AM

Maybe this is two-fold, but I find that it is very common for the AI to "roster churn" players like this from MLB to AAA and when they don't have options they end up being DFA'd.

The guys who spends a year in AAA does not deserve an MLB contract the following season. Perhaps if he was non-tendered someone might sign him to a league minimum contract or a minors deal with a majors option.

These were just first couple guys I could find in my latest sim and I think it is worth having a look at adjusting the criteria for an auto arbitration case.

kidd_05_u2 · 07-11-2023, 11:01 AM

But those players didn't spend the full year in triple A and contending teams pay for depth.

Griffin Canning pitched 90 innings, that would be top 6 IPs for the 2022 Angels. He wasn't great, but it is not easy to replace 90 IPs for 2mn. The real-life Twins gave Emilio Pagan, a reliever, 3.7mn in arbitration following two years of negative WAR just because he has a rubber arm and some potential to soak up innings at replacement level or marginally better.

With Luplow, it seems he spent about two months with the MLB club in 2023 and started the new season in the bigs, so he is clearly in the high part of the depth chart. It doesn't matter if somebody else may sign him for the minimum if the Braves want to keep him. His ratings look okay too for a platoon option who would play occasionally.

I'm not saying there aren't problems with the AI. I agree the AI signs too many players, but for me, the issue is with players of much lower quality and older age. I honestly find that arbitration decisions are largely fine. It is the FAs of 32-36 years filling up the minors that drive me crazy.

Also, you probably want to disable the option that limits demotions to 5 a year. The AI doesn't handle that well.

Bobbyraz49 · 07-12-2023, 02:58 PM

I had a player who was in his 5th year and was a rule 5 player. He was 19 years old.

WarningTrakPower · 12-09-2023, 12:14 PM

What I was referring to in the thread creation was players who are 1st / 2nd time arbitration eligible that spent the entire previous season in AAA (or lower) being offered arbitration.

I just did a default one year sim and there are so many RP type guys who are being given $1.3m for 2024. The teams offering these contracts will eventually end up DFA'ing most of these guys as they are usually out of options.

Example - The Mets have 22 pitchers on their 40man and gave Sam Coonrod $1.3m for 2024. Somehow he is still on the AAA roster even though the 40man is full.
Coonrod has 3+ year MLB service time and spent all of 2023 in AAA.
They will never need him in the MLB since there at least 8/9 pitchers ahead of him on the 40man.

billyray1984 · 12-19-2023, 04:09 PM

I personally do not have a problem with the AI giving arb to these guys since they are serviceable, are still really cheap and good depth pieces who can get called up if someone gets hurt, but I do agree that sometimes the AI will tend to keep guys like this through their 5th or 6th year when they start to get expensive and the AI then has trouble handling the payroll.

Who cares if one of them ends up getting dfa'ed because of lack of options, teams do this IRL all the time, especially with pitchers or utility guys. I use the high to very high injury rating and I still keep some of these replacement to below replacement guys without options around since some years I end up with 10-12 guys from the 26 man on the IL.

I will also point out that Jordan Lyles has made upwards of 22M total from three different teams in the last three years while being a below replacement pitcher in every one of those years because somebody needs to pitch and he can pitch. Teams do pay for depth, even for middling players.

07-11-2023, 08:32 AM	#1
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 544	AI Arbitration / Non-Tender Decision Making Is there anyway we can see some improvement to the AI decision making when it comes to arbitration / non-tender decision making? Quite often I am seeing players who spent the entire previous season in AAA (or lower) being awarded arbitration salaries when they 100% should have been non-tendered. Here is one player I just stumbled across on the waiver wire (out of options of course). I have wondered if perhaps the AI teams with larger budgets / payroll flexibility do not have enough emphasis put on player performance. Here is a batter who spent most of last season in AAA and is signed for $2m+ even though he is a replacement level player in MLB

07-11-2023, 09:17 AM	#2
kidd_05_u2 Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 353	I don't have a huge problem with the decisions taken by the AI here, especially when you consider these are teams with big budgets. Griffin Canning is a young pitcher with a decent track record who had a replacement level 2023 after coming off an injury of 20 months. For 2.1mn, he is a fine keeper who can be either a decent bullpen arm or a spot starter. It is not a given that you can get a better player for that money. Luplow raked at AAA in 2023 and was replacement level in the MLB in just a handful of ABs. If his standing in the organizational depth chart is high enough for him to be in the MLB club in April, you would keep him for 2.4mn with the budget of the Braves. Maybe he looks cheap to me because I play with the Marlins and Jorge Soler has similar ratings but a 15mn salary

07-11-2023, 09:22 AM	#3
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 544	Maybe this is two-fold, but I find that it is very common for the AI to "roster churn" players like this from MLB to AAA and when they don't have options they end up being DFA'd. The guys who spends a year in AAA does not deserve an MLB contract the following season. Perhaps if he was non-tendered someone might sign him to a league minimum contract or a minors deal with a majors option. These were just first couple guys I could find in my latest sim and I think it is worth having a look at adjusting the criteria for an auto arbitration case.

07-11-2023, 11:01 AM	#4
kidd_05_u2 Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 353	But those players didn't spend the full year in triple A and contending teams pay for depth. Griffin Canning pitched 90 innings, that would be top 6 IPs for the 2022 Angels. He wasn't great, but it is not easy to replace 90 IPs for 2mn. The real-life Twins gave Emilio Pagan, a reliever, 3.7mn in arbitration following two years of negative WAR just because he has a rubber arm and some potential to soak up innings at replacement level or marginally better. With Luplow, it seems he spent about two months with the MLB club in 2023 and started the new season in the bigs, so he is clearly in the high part of the depth chart. It doesn't matter if somebody else may sign him for the minimum if the Braves want to keep him. His ratings look okay too for a platoon option who would play occasionally. I'm not saying there aren't problems with the AI. I agree the AI signs too many players, but for me, the issue is with players of much lower quality and older age. I honestly find that arbitration decisions are largely fine. It is the FAs of 32-36 years filling up the minors that drive me crazy. Also, you probably want to disable the option that limits demotions to 5 a year. The AI doesn't handle that well.

07-12-2023, 02:58 PM	#5
Bobbyraz49 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 832	I had a player who was in his 5th year and was a rule 5 player. He was 19 years old.

12-09-2023, 12:14 PM	#6
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 544	What I was referring to in the thread creation was players who are 1st / 2nd time arbitration eligible that spent the entire previous season in AAA (or lower) being offered arbitration. I just did a default one year sim and there are so many RP type guys who are being given $1.3m for 2024. The teams offering these contracts will eventually end up DFA'ing most of these guys as they are usually out of options. Example - The Mets have 22 pitchers on their 40man and gave Sam Coonrod $1.3m for 2024. Somehow he is still on the AAA roster even though the 40man is full. Coonrod has 3+ year MLB service time and spent all of 2023 in AAA. They will never need him in the MLB since there at least 8/9 pitchers ahead of him on the 40man.

12-19-2023, 04:09 PM	#7
billyray1984 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 216	I personally do not have a problem with the AI giving arb to these guys since they are serviceable, are still really cheap and good depth pieces who can get called up if someone gets hurt, but I do agree that sometimes the AI will tend to keep guys like this through their 5th or 6th year when they start to get expensive and the AI then has trouble handling the payroll. Who cares if one of them ends up getting dfa'ed because of lack of options, teams do this IRL all the time, especially with pitchers or utility guys. I use the high to very high injury rating and I still keep some of these replacement to below replacement guys without options around since some years I end up with 10-12 guys from the 26 man on the IL. I will also point out that Jordan Lyles has made upwards of 22M total from three different teams in the last three years while being a below replacement pitcher in every one of those years because somebody needs to pitch and he can pitch. Teams do pay for depth, even for middling players.