Trading down

[Gazkyo]

Hi I’m fairly new to the game and I am in the nhl draft. I currently have the number #4 pick and want to trade down. I can’t seem to make a deal with anyone. Just to see I even offered my 1st with teams 10-20 places below me offering a straight 1st round swap. All teams declined. This can’t be normal can it?

[alko]

Originally Posted by Gazkyo

Hi I’m fairly new to the game and I am in the nhl draft. I currently have the number #4 pick and want to trade down. I can’t seem to make a deal with anyone. Just to see I even offered my 1st with teams 10-20 places below me offering a straight 1st round swap. All teams declined. This can’t be normal can it?

Dont wait that the trading system will be 100 % real life. It has still his flaws.

[Gazkyo]

Originally Posted by alko

Dont wait that the trading system will be 100 % real life. It has still his flaws.

Oh I get that but I was surprised that no teams wanted to trade up. Overall I'm loving the game but as a rebuilding team I would have liked to trade down and accumulate picks. I wonder how the AI values pick order. Do they value all 1st round picks as equal then and not consider where the pick falls on draft day?

[Adam B]

Originally Posted by Gazkyo

Oh I get that but I was surprised that no teams wanted to trade up. Overall I'm loving the game but as a rebuilding team I would have liked to trade down and accumulate picks. I wonder how the AI values pick order. Do they value all 1st round picks as equal then and not consider where the pick falls on draft day?

Hockey is a little different than say football where you see teams use the famous Jimmy Johnson (or their own version of it) draft board on the valuation of picks. While I disagree with his over emphasis on analytics (don't get me wrong, there's a spot for it), Dom Luszczyszyn on the Athletic had an interesting piece a while ago about draft value.

If you go back even to the Summer during the last draft - look at see how chastised the Sharks were for their trade down. (And that was the first real big one in a while. Dubas has done in a couple times, but it's not something that has happened historically a lot)

NHL GMs are sticky - and part of that is drafting 18 year old players. You think/hope you know what they are going to turn into, but you're not 100% sure either.

Trading First Round picks is a...delicate balance. If it's too easy to move up and down, then it's not a lot of fun either. I'm not saying there isn't room for growth in the area - but keep all this in mind too.

In hockey, typically teams will be looking not so much for trade downs, but players for picks, especially around the deadline. You'll see teams go on run grab players who may only stay with them for that run for 1sts, 1 and 2, or multiple 2s, etc. Trading veterans for mid to late round picks is also something very common (as sometimes bulk is best).

Sometimes it's best to look for multiple 2-4's and then try to use those to move back up late in the first or early in the second.

Anyways, maybe not the answer you're exactly look for, but hopefully that gives you a better understanding anyway.

[Alessandro]

Originally Posted by Adam B

Hockey is a little different than say football where you see teams use the famous Jimmy Johnson (or their own version of it) draft board on the valuation of picks.

Illuminate those of us who don't live in NA, what is that about?

[tomkmb]

It's just an arbitrary way of assigning values to the picks, so you can better understand (or attempt to at least) what sort of value you should be giving away/receiving for the picks in question.

For example, if you wanted to try and trade for 1.1, then you'd need to trade picks that have a combined value of at least that. Again, when it's being used in terms of a video game(I've no idea the scale FHM uses) it's not a hard and fast cheat code, it's just a concept to demystify pick values somewhat.

[Adam B]

Originally Posted by Alessandro

Illuminate those of us who don't live in NA, what is that about?

Yeah, TomK illustrated it well.

The issue is where value has become standardized and somewhat predictable (although busts still exist), the NHL Draft has significantly more player turnover because you're drafting teenagers versus 20+ year old guys.

The average NHL career (at my last check) was around 4 years or about 300 games.

As I said, Dom talked about it in one article and of 1st Round Picks, something like only 68% of 1st rounders make that. 2nd Round drops to 48, 3rd was 33, and then it drops off dramatically I believe (although it's been a while).

So pick values are a lot different and weird in that way versus the Johnson (American football) chart.

[Gazkyo]

I ended up adding in a big contract I didn't want as well as the rights for a prospect I didn't see planning out. In the end I moved down 10 spots and also accumulated 3 second round picks. I was happy with my draft.

[Gazkyo]

Originally Posted by Adam B

Hockey is a little different than say football where you see teams use the famous Jimmy Johnson (or their own version of it) draft board on the valuation of picks. While I disagree with his over emphasis on analytics (don't get me wrong, there's a spot for it), Dom Luszczyszyn on the Athletic had an interesting piece a while ago about draft value.

If you go back even to the Summer during the last draft - look at see how chastised the Sharks were for their trade down. (And that was the first real big one in a while. Dubas has done in a couple times, but it's not something that has happened historically a lot)

NHL GMs are sticky - and part of that is drafting 18 year old players. You think/hope you know what they are going to turn into, but you're not 100% sure either.

Trading First Round picks is a...delicate balance. If it's too easy to move up and down, then it's not a lot of fun either. I'm not saying there isn't room for growth in the area - but keep all this in mind too.

In hockey, typically teams will be looking not so much for trade downs, but players for picks, especially around the deadline. You'll see teams go on run grab players who may only stay with them for that run for 1sts, 1 and 2, or multiple 2s, etc. Trading veterans for mid to late round picks is also something very common (as sometimes bulk is best).

Sometimes it's best to look for multiple 2-4's and then try to use those to move back up late in the first or early in the second.

Anyways, maybe not the answer you're exactly look for, but hopefully that gives you a better understanding anyway.

Well that's me falling into a rabbit hole thanks for sharing.

[Alessandro]

Yeah thank you for the explanations

[JeffR]

Originally Posted by tomkmb

Again, when it's being used in terms of a video game(I've no idea the scale FHM uses)

It's looking at the actual players likely to be available with a given pick, and essentially assigning the pick a trade value similar to the best of those players. So pick value will vary with the strength of the draft class. But there are some additional mechanics that make lottery-level picks particularly valuable and difficult to acquire.

[GlennN]

Originally Posted by JeffR

It's looking at the actual players likely to be available with a given pick, and essentially assigning the pick a trade value similar to the best of those players. So pick value will vary with the strength of the draft class. But there are some additional mechanics that make lottery-level picks particularly valuable and difficult to acquire.

But that still wouldn't explain why any team would not accept a trade up 10-20 spots. OP says teams turned downed such an offer straight up. That shouldn't happen, should it?

[tomkmb]

Originally Posted by JeffR

It's looking at the actual players likely to be available with a given pick, and essentially assigning the pick a trade value similar to the best of those players. So pick value will vary with the strength of the draft class. But there are some additional mechanics that make lottery-level picks particularly valuable and difficult to acquire.

Good to know, thanks Jeff

[Gazkyo]

Originally Posted by GlennN

But that still wouldn't explain why any team would not accept a trade up 10-20 spots. OP says teams turned downed such an offer straight up. That shouldn't happen, should it?

I think if memory serves it was about the holder of pick 23 before they would finally accept a draft pick trade but it was a straight swap...
At that point in the draft at my slot there were still huge prospects available like Yager (who was picked by the trade partner) and Michkov (who went 10th). It was a crazy draft, Leo Carlsson slipped to the second round and teams went way off the mock draft board.
In the end though I added a big contract and a two star prospect and the team swapped their first and three 2nd rounds. I was able to take Will Smith and felt good about what I got done.