Season 40 (2058) - Discussion Thread

[Westheim]

Portland didn't quite keep up the .700 pace, but at 87-46 the Coons are 16 games ahead of second place with a magic number of 13. Looks solid for their first ever division crown in Perfect League! (Yes, I know, we're baking the small buns over here...)

The SE Jon Matlack has been added to the rotation behind Big Walt, Lefty Grove, SE Johan Santana, and (97) Tom Seaver. Live deGrom will now do honorable long relief duties. Ultimately though I may eventually get rid of all the remaining live cards except maybe Mike Trout. It's only him, McNeil, Arenado, and deGrom left.

Rebs have slipped to 75-58, nine games behind first place. They still hold a wild card, but I am sure they can march that division away from the battlefield as well...

The Accountants may win their division or they may not, but they sure don't generate a lot of points this year...

[JasonC23]

As noted in Pappyzan's previous post, Evergreen comes into September with a 1-game division lead over Huntley, who has a 2.5-game Wild Card home-field advantage lead over Washington, who has a 1.5-game Wild Card visitor lead over Southern. Per the Pennant Chase screen, here are the playoff odds ("Never tell me the odds!") of the 4 teams:

Evergreen: 97.1%
Huntley: 88.5%
Washington: 84.5%
Southern: 29.8%

(Also, La Crosse: 100.0%, but that's in the AC, so... )

From the looks of the distribution of home vs away games and the average winning percentage of the teams left on the schedule (see below), I would humbly submit that despite the odds, I fear Huntley has an excellent chance of being the one left out in the cold void of space...

[HelpDodgers]

Belfast is in the position they wanted to be in going towards the playoffs

With Chicago, the 3rd best team, going to be a wild card, they are lined up to get the Carnivores. That puts Belfast as the home team for a series vs the winner of the NC East. Long Beach has an easy pathway in the AL.

Anything can happen. At least Belfast will get a 5 game series not against Chicago of Miss.

Could have been a lot worse.

[old timer]

Because of this weird league (I guess?), our two groundballers were awful and for the 1st time ever (when did I hear that before?), I sent both Hubbell and 99 Johnson to the reserve roster and added Smoltz to the team. I was planning on saving the PP for another SP, but that was a ways off so I decided Smoltz could be helpful in the pen (I hope!) and got him instead.

As to Hubbell and Johnson... Hubbell had a .421 BABIP and had given up 63 H in 43 IP and had a 5.19 ERA. Johnson had "only" a .360 BABIP, but he had a 4.48 ERA and was doing worse as the season progressed.

We did not do well in that 18 game span (only 12-6) vs the easier teams so I wonder how we'll do once we meet up with our division mates at again? We're now back in a tie with Huntley (hello again!) and Washington is rapidly catching up (only 2.5 back).

p.s. - Smoltz got to pitch in his 1st game for us and it was a gem. He gave up 4 H and 1 BB and 3 ER in 2 IP. Yay!

[One Great Matrix]

We've got a 5 game lead in the division! Team is looking strong.

But I was just thinking about how 2 weeks ago at the beginning of the week, I felt particularly good about our chances...things felt aligned so to speak. I didn't think we'd win our first championship but everything went well all week right to the end.

So...despite my current excitement, I don't much like our chances ultimately.

Anybody else get a feeling beforehand that things just were or weren't going to go well?

[neugey]

I'm beginning to see that as long as the whale(s) line up in the opposite conference, Perfect level ain't so bad and I can somewhat hang in there. And if a whale gets bumped in a best of 5 in the playoffs, then one of the mortal teams (including mine) gets a shot at a trophy. Happened last week but I fell short of the World Series.

[Jackgoboom]

Originally Posted by JasonC23

As noted in Pappyzan's previous post, Evergreen comes into September with a 1-game division lead over Huntley, who has a 2.5-game Wild Card home-field advantage lead over Washington, who has a 1.5-game Wild Card visitor lead over Southern. Per the Pennant Chase screen, here are the playoff odds ("Never tell me the odds!") of the 4 teams:

Evergreen: 97.1%
Huntley: 88.5%
Washington: 84.5%
Southern: 29.8%

(Also, La Crosse: 100.0%, but that's in the AC, so... )

From the looks of the distribution of home vs away games and the average winning percentage of the teams left on the schedule (see below), I would humbly submit that despite the odds, I fear Huntley has an excellent chance of being the one left out in the cold void of space...

You guys just keep on beating each other up, we want a nice close race with lots of tired players. I'm enjoying the spectacle...

[Westheim]

Lee Smith cocks up another lead in the ninth, not that I expect anything better from him, but even with an eventual 4-1 loss in 11 innings the Raccoons secure their division on the 12th - first ever division crown in Perfect!

[old timer]

A big 3 game series starting today vs Washington in the Evergreen Forest. I'll be happy if we can win at least 1 game from them.

Originally Posted by old timer

What I can't figure is Washington. They're only 3-12 in August and they're losing to some weak teams. Perhaps, they're just holding back to make things interesting and then they'll get super hot and blow past us all. Yeah, that must be it.

Since I posted that, the Senators have gone 22-4. See, they were just messing with us, letting us think that we could win this.

After our series with Washington, they have 4 more against Huntley, but the other 8 games are against very weak teams. But we have only 3 vs a weak team and 7 vs the Southpaws and 3 vs Huntley (plus the 3 vs Washington). Huntley has 4 vs Washington, 3 vs the Raccoons, 3 vs Southpaws, 3 vs Fargo and they close out the season vs...

Originally Posted by JasonC23

The P466 NC East. You know it. You fear it. And yet, you don't know the key to understanding it.

Oh, sure, it seems as if the head-to-head matchups among the Raccoons, LyinCheatin Senators, Red Raiders, and Southpaws-OL will determine who wins, whose cards are wild, and who is left out in the cold.

But what if I told you that we are, all of us, overlooking the true team of destiny--the team that will decide who wins and who loses?

Yup, they finish the season against THAT team. Besides finishing the season vs Huntley, Onyx also has 5 coming up against Washington and 3 vs the Southpaws.

So at this point, it looks like Washington has the edge due to an easier schedule, but who knows, we got lucky against them earlier in the season, maybe our luck will continue. Should be an interesting finish. Good luck everyone!

[One Great Matrix]

Y'all have fun over in P466

[old timer]

It's even closer now since the Senators took 2 of 3 from us. They won 9-2, 8-3 and then lost 5-0. So we now are tied with Huntley at the top (welcome back guys!) and are only 1.5 up on the Senators. We've got a little break (I hope!) for 3 games and then... Doom?

[pappyzan]

Wow, what a race for 3 postseason spots. 4 teams in NC East are still in it, as they have been all season long.

[old timer]

We all have 10-11 games left. Look at those WPct of the teams we have left to face. It's .668 for the Raccoons, .582 for the Red Raiders, .498 for the Senators and .590 for the Southpaws. Our chances at winning the division don't seem so great.

[Jackgoboom]

Originally Posted by old timer

We all have 10-11 games left. Look at those WPct of the teams we have left to face. It's .668 for the Raccoons, .582 for the Red Raiders, .498 for the Senators and .590 for the Southpaws. Our chances at winning the division don't seem so great.

What you guys really need to top off a great season is an extra innings wildcard game, followed by a five game division series. I am merely a disinterested spectator captivated by the contest

[JasonC23]

Apparently, there are, like, 25 other teams in P466! Who knew? Standings at the end of this post...

Every other division other than you-know-which has been won, so congratulations to...

AC East champion Fargo Buscemis - OL!
AC Central champion La Crosse Fighting Frogs (who I still feel like will win this whole thing, just because)!
AC West champion Minnesota Bold North!
NC Central champion Tassie Thunder (Jackgoboom! Great job!)!
NC West champion Jackson Generals - FTP!

Meanwhile, Evergreen and Huntley's magic number to make the playoffs is 5, and Washington's is 7, with 10 games left. Evergreen's next 4 are home against the Southern Southpaws-OL, while Huntley's are at Washington.

Gettin' kinda tense, aren't ya?

[JasonC23]

The first half of the critical 4-game Huntley at Washington series is going incredibly well...for those LyinCheatin Senators.

[JasonC23]

Huntley managed to salvage the final game of the 4-game series at Washington, leaving things as follows. Huntley and Washington are in, but it would take a shocking turn of events to knock Evergreen out of the division lead. So, the question is, who will host the Wild Card game?

[old timer]

That went unexpectedly well. We took all 4 from Southern and none were close (before this series, we were 6-6 vs Southern). So we have a 3 game lead now, but our remaining 6 games are against Huntley and Southern (.662 WPct) while Washington has 6 games vs teams with WPct of .363 and Huntley's last 3 games will be vs Onyx (.321).

If Washington wins their last 6 (a likely possibility), we'll have to win 4 of 6 vs Huntley and Southern (much less likely). I fear another end-season collapse which has happened to us on a few occasions before.

Well, at least it's not going to be boring!

[pappyzan]

Originally Posted by JasonC23

Huntley managed to salvage the final game of the 4-game series at Washington, leaving things as follows. Huntley and Washington are in, but it would take a shocking turn of events to knock Evergreen out of the division lead. So, the question is, who will host the Wild Card game?

Yep, the 4 game sweep by Evergreen over Southern combined with shared opponents remaining on the schedule between each other in the East, pretty much gives the division to Evergreen at this point. I mean Huntley or Washington could win it, but Huntley will need to sweep their upcoming series with Evergreen for either one of us to even have a shot at it.

Congratulations is nearly on tap for Old Timer!

[old timer]

Originally Posted by pappyzan

Yep, the 4 game sweep by Evergreen over Southern combined with shared opponents remaining on the schedule between each other in the East, pretty much gives the division to Evergreen at this point. I mean Huntley or Washington could win it, but Huntley will need to sweep their upcoming series with Evergreen for either one of us to even have a shot at it.

Congratulations is nearly on tap for Old Timer!

Oh no, we're doomed now! At least twice before, we had a lead like this only to lose it on the LAST day. The last time this happened, we ended up in a 3-way tie for 1st. So that's what I'm predicting. A 3-way tie for 1st. See you guys in the playoffs before the playoffs.