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11-13-2019, 03:18 PM | #21 | |
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While agree that the neutral zone infraction is generally a very dumb penalty, I suppose I can envision instances where the d-lineman, caught up in the anxiety and fatigue of the moment, might experience just enough disorientation or distraction to misplace himself with regards to his stance. (It also appears to me that refs give players a little leeway on this infraction. Sometimes the camera angle will clearly show that a defender's helmet or front hand-on-the-ground is a bit into the neutral zone, but it usually isn't called unless it's obvious. Makes me think that a linesman might warn the defender, "hey, you're getting pretty close to lining up in the neutral zone... might wanna watch that.") The other dumb football penalty that sticks out, though rare, is the case of a wide receiver jumping offsides (false start). Unlike a O-lineman, that fraction of second head start that he's looking for is unlikely to break the play if he doesn't get it. When you combine that with the fact that he doesn't even need to know the snapcount - just needs to watch the ball - it is truly a boneheaded penalty. |
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11-13-2019, 03:57 PM | #22 | ||
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11-13-2019, 06:29 PM | #23 |
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Oooooo....that one gets me hot. You would not want me to be your coach if you ever did that.
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11-13-2019, 07:39 PM | #24 |
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Venn diagram: people who think athletes getting penalties for celebrating/taunting, etc are dumb, childish, etc and people who scream at their TV's while watching sports
Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-13-2019 at 07:41 PM. |
11-13-2019, 09:35 PM | #25 |
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Sure. But when Joe Schmoe yells (in either anger or enthusiasm) at the TV, he might be acting emotionally but he's not making an emotion-based decision that costs his team 15 yards. There's a difference between being emotional and being an emotional idiot.
Last edited by thehef; 11-14-2019 at 12:45 AM. |
11-14-2019, 08:12 AM | #26 |
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Joe Schmoe isn't blowing his cool at work when he's watching TV.
Players are literally being paid not to lose those 15 yards. |
11-14-2019, 10:10 AM | #27 |
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Venn diagram: people who think that Joe Schmoe screaming at his TV is, "like totally different than an athlete getting a taunting/celebrating penalty" and people who regularly scream at their TV.
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11-28-2019, 10:43 PM | #28 | |
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11-29-2019, 12:48 AM | #29 | ||
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No single play wins or loses the game Yes, some plays have bigger and smaller impacts on who wins and loses. And really, this is more on the kicker, Logan, or the kick team, than on Moore, who got the penalty. According to this College kickers from 35 yards (the distance of the extra point after the penalty) make 89% of kicks. College kickers from 20 yards (the distance of normal extra points) make 96% of kicks The penalty on Moore cost the team about 7% probability of making the kick The kicker missing the kick cost the team 89% probability of making the kick. Logan "deserves" 12 (89/7) times as much "blame" as Moore. But, the missed kick can't really go ALL on Logan. If you divide the miss equally among the 11 guys on the field during the kick that's (.89%/11) 8% probability of making the kick for each player. So, each guy was more to "blame" than Moore. Another way to look at it, is expected points. At regular extra point distance the expected number of points were (.96*1) .96 At the 35 yard distance the expected number of points were (.89*1) .89 The penalty cost Ole Miss .07 points Missing the extra point cost Ole Miss .89 points There's no rational way to say that Moore cost his team the game (LOTS of irrational people will say that, though). Missing the 35 yard kick cost the team MUCH more than the extra 15 yards. College football player has an emotional over reaction Quote:
EDIT Can't really blame Cobra MGR either, though. Not fully. He didn't come to this thought that Moore COST HIS TEAM THE GAME on his own. He's been fed this misinformation his whole life by uninformed commentators, sports reporters, etc...Probably he (and they) didn't have great teachers who helped him see how the things he was learning in school could (and, more importantly, should) be applied to real life. And I can't take the credit for figuring it out. That goes to much, I don't know about smarter but, more curious people than I. I also blindly accepted the misinformation because I assumed that the people on TV and writing in the papers and magazines knew what they were talking about. And I wish I could say that when I was first presented this better information I readily accepted it. But I didn't. I thought it was ridiculous. But, I was just open minded and curious enough to eventually understand it and accept it. And who knows where that came from. Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-29-2019 at 01:05 AM. |
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11-30-2019, 12:15 PM | #30 | |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rNQ4puNN5Q I didn't watch the Egg Bowl so I don't know what happened, but I'll use the example above. Leon Lett IMO cost the Cowboys the game. I don't care what happened previously. It doesn't matter to me. It's not that I've been misled, it's that I look to the play that decided the contest as opposed to the overall picture. Last edited by Ragnar; 11-30-2019 at 12:18 PM. |
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11-30-2019, 12:58 PM | #31 | |
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The FACT is that Ole Miss was still 89% likely to tie the game after the penalty. So, saying that the penalty cost the team the game, it just makes no sense. And, the extra point would have only tied the game. Even if they had made it, they still would have only had something like a 50% chance of winning. The penalty cost Ole Miss something like a (7% * 50%) 3.5% chance of winning. Missing the kick cost them a lot more. Let's look at the Leon Lett play and see if it is similar (spoiler: not really) The scene: Cowboys up 14-13 with 15 seconds left. Miami attempts a 41 yard field goal. The fieldgoal is blocked. If Dallas gets the ball back, they have a nearly (but not exactly) 100% chance of winning. If Miami recovers, they have nearly (but not exactly) a 100% chance of winning. In this situation, the odds of the game swung wildly on the play. Dallas went from a nearly 100% chance of winning to a nearly 100% chance of losing. Ole Miss went from like a (50%*96%) 48% chance of winning before the penalty to about a (50%*89%) 45% chance of winning after the penalty. |
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11-30-2019, 01:02 PM | #32 |
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Yeah if you want to look at one play to say it "cost them the game" that's fine, the point is that in this case people are looking at the wrong play because the missed XP cost them far more than the penalty before it.
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11-30-2019, 02:23 PM | #33 | |
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As far as the Lett play, all he had to do is not touch the ball. Barring another miracle at the Meadowlands, Cowboys win on a knee. |
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11-30-2019, 02:59 PM | #34 | ||
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At least one.
People should think more Quote:
Trying to use that logic There were still 4 seconds left So the game was lost when one of these things happened: The time ran out during the onside attempt The time ran out during the last offensive play after the onside attempt (either a hail mary or kneel down most likely. I didn't watch the game). Yes, the missed kick is the biggest play (that I'm aware of) that determined the outcome of the game. Much bigger than the penalty. But neither can really be said to have cost them the game. They still had a chance, albeit small, to win and they, like all teams, lost because of the totality of plays in the game. Quote:
But the Cowboys still had a chance to win after Lett's play. They could have blocked the second attempt. The Dolphins still could have won after the block. Dallas could have fumbled the kneel down. Unlikely? For sure. But Lett's play didn't end the game anymore than the penalty or missed field goal did. Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-30-2019 at 03:01 PM. |
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11-30-2019, 04:02 PM | #35 | |
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And as a side note to everyone here...... I have CBeisbol on ignore for a reason. I find him to be an arrogant condescending jerk than puts the anal in analytics. So I don't ever see what he posts unless someone else quotes him. Now of course, I can't prevent anyone from quoting him. But it would be nice if anyone would refrain from defending my opinion from something he says. I don't respond to him by choice. Cause I don't give a four letter word what his opinion is and I'm not going to waste a second defending it to him. So you can let him say what he wants to say about me or my thoughts.
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11-30-2019, 04:33 PM | #36 |
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The difference between the kicker, Logan, and the idiot penalty-taker, Moore, is motivation. Logan surely tried his best, but failed, just as pretty much every player has on one occasion or another. Moore, on the other hand, made a stupid, selfish, and classless decision that cost his team 15 yards, thus making a short-but-high-pressure kick somewhat more difficult. There's a difference between trying your best and failing, and doing something beyond selfish and stupid.
Also, as far as pointing to one play that decided a game more than any other of the 150+ plays, timing is everything: At the end of a game, there's little or no time to recover from whatever happened. If Moore's moronic and classless act happens in the 2nd quarter and the extra point is missed, it's might end up being a key play, but probably not THE key play. |
11-30-2019, 04:47 PM | #37 |
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It's almost like measuring an individual by a team metric is borderline insanity!
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11-30-2019, 05:08 PM | #38 | ||||||||
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No, it didn't. It made them about 7% less likely to convert the extra point.
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As I've already posted, the penalty made the extra point about 7% less likely to be successful - about 7% more likely to lose in regulation. But, going for 2 would have made them 60% more likely to lose in regulation - but much more likely to win in regulation. So, if not for the penalty, if they had chosen to go for two, they would have been expected to win about 40% of the time I've already posted that their probability of winning before the extra point was around either 48% or 45% Quote:
Thus, one could argue that Moore's decision to mime a urinating dog might made his team more likely to win But, it wouldn't have upset people nearly as much. Interesting that. Quote:
No one likes people who are condescending. Quote:
I can't comment on how anal he is or isn't. EDIT Curious about what had happened previously that caused Cobra MGR to block me, I looked back through some of my previous posts to find this interaction Quote:
Good to see he's always taken a stance against being condescending. Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-30-2019 at 08:23 PM. |
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11-30-2019, 05:21 PM | #39 | ||
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Cobra MGR might block you for being "condescending" if you say a someone is an "idiot. Even though I'm the condescending one, I'll refrain from making judgments about Moore's character and intelligence and, if I'm lucky, I'll be back in Cobra MGR's good graces someday. I agree that there's a difference between getting a taunting penalty and missing a kick. I'm only pointing out that Moore is getting an undeserved amount of criticism for the loss. Quote:
Win probability definitely takes the time of the game into account. You're much more likely to win down 1 with 4 minutes left in the game than you are with 4 seconds left in the game. |
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11-30-2019, 05:30 PM | #40 |
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