Have you ever seen a runner thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double?

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Anyone

I like to think the ball can go deep in the hole, and that in a case like that a SS with better range will reach it and one with lesser range will fail to. One with the range but a bad arm for a SS might get to it but fail to throw the runner out.

It's possible that if the SS has great range/arm that just subtracts from the chance that a ball hit on the ground (which with pitcher GB/FB ratios and the like the game definitely does decide whether it's hit on the ground or not) will be a hit, and that where the out is recorded, beyond which fielder gets the assist for fielding stats-- is fluff. But I hope not, and if so I hope they fix it. I hope that the plays where fielding is the key are the same ones hit to the harder spots to make plays, so when the PbP/graphics show the SS run down a ball in the hole it really means it was the SS's range that led to it being an out and not a single through the infield.

Originally Posted by Sweed

The game rolls dice and gets a result based on real life percentages (if the ball is hit and then where balls are hit and how those balls play out, with a ton of variables) and then builds a pbp and now video to represent what happened. FM plays the same way, IE it simulates a game and then makes a video and pbp to fit after. It's not a secret.

The post I responded to first started by saying there was blatant problems with baserunning etc and it wouldn't receive attention because of the pay to play IE PT game.

Originally Posted by dward1

that was done in this thread and it's a blatantly huge problem. the PBP engine needs a total overhaul but I don't think the nuts and bolts of the game is high on the priority list anymore with the Pay-To-Play side getting all the attention

My response was

So you think they don't want or care about having realistic stats in their pay to play game?

You think PT has a different\better base running model than OOTP? Why would they try to invent the wheel twice when it fits on both cars?

HIs response

Notice I said nothing about pbp, I mentioned accurate realistic stats and the base running model. He carried it to pbp and not modeling plays.

I do think the ball in the hole is accounted for as part of the "ton of variables" like fielding ability and arm etc. There is a percentage chance of the ball going to short, directly to or deep between 3b and ss etc, and then fielding, speed, arm abilities are figured in as the play is modeled. The game then tries to "make" a pbp and video to represent that play, it's been that way since at least rewrite after v6.5 with pbp and only recently video.

Most pbp complaints have come with the addition of video and the fact the video currently doesn't have enough options to accurately represent the actual result of the play. That's why you get the weird looking plays, IE held ground balls, doubles on a ball that looks like it should be a single. It's all a work in progress and will get better version to version. Before the addition of video the pbp was enough as we made the picture in our head of how the play would look.

Adding a new pbp module or "fixing" the pbp is not going to change any of the results, they are correct. It is only going to change the description we read or the video to better show what happened.

[CBeisbol]

Another thing I've never seen: runner makes the last out at third *before* a runner scores.

Taking it for granted now that the run will count whenever the throw goes to third and a runner is coming home

[Eugene Church]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Another thing I've never seen: runner makes the last out at third *before* a runner scores.

Taking it for granted now that the run will count whenever the throw goes to third and a runner is coming home

I am not positive, but I do think I saw this happen... maybe one time in recent memory.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Another thing I've never seen: runner makes the last out at third *before* a runner scores.

Taking it for granted now that the run will count whenever the throw goes to third and a runner is coming home

I would imagine that some of the most difficult things to code "accurately" in a sim like this are the things that happen once every 500 games or more. Things like attempted double plays where the runner is out at 2nd but the throw to first is an error allowing the batter to get to 2nd. Never seen in OOTP but does happen very rarely in MLB. A walk where ball four is equivalent to a wild pitch and the batter gets to 2nd. Very rare in MLB. Never seen in OOTP. A single where the runner scores from first without an error. Fairly rare in MLB. Never seen in OOTP.

My guess is that with things like this, you run the risk of having a frequency much higher than real life. So it may come down to a decision between having it happen zero percent of the time, which isn't really that far off from something that only happens once every 1000 games, or it happens once every fifty games. I don't know programming but just from a logical viewpoint, I can see how it might take a great deal of "finesse" in how you code OOTP just to change a frequency of an event from once every thousand games to once every 100 games. Leaving some of the more rare events in MLB out of the programming for OOTP may just be out of necessity if it is very difficult to get an event's frequency down to an accuracy level that is something like +/- five events per 100,000 games.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Another thing I've never seen: runner makes the last out at third *before* a runner scores.

Taking it for granted now that the run will count whenever the throw goes to third and a runner is coming home

I take that for granted in MLB too. How often do you see a play made at third which prevents a runner from scoring? One could easily watch all 162 games for a team in a season in MLB and not see it happen once.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I take that for granted in MLB too. How often do you see a play made at third which prevents a runner from scoring? One could easily watch all 162 games for a team in a season in MLB and not see it happen once.

Well, I just had a guy hit a triple and out on a hidden ball trick.

So, rare [stuff] happens

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Well, I just had a guy hit a triple and out on a hidden ball trick.

So, rare [stuff] happens

Not saying rare stuff doesn't happen. I see guys get in run downs. See guys get hit by line drives. See catcher's interference, etc. But not every rare event that can or has happened in MLB is available as a possible event in OOTP. My assumption is that it is much harder to code the frequency of a rare event in such a way as to seem realistic than it is to code something that happens more frequently, such as grounding out to the shortstop. If the frequency of grounding out to the shortstop is off a couple of percentage points, most people wouldn't notice. If the frequency of a rare event happens 2% of the time instead of 0.2% of the time, people will notice.

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

No, when this happens, it's recorded as a caught stealing. So every time you see a CS in a box score, there's a chance it could be a ball in the dirt that the runner tried to advance on. As others have stated, the animation for such a play doesn't exist in OOTP (and I don't believe PbP text does, either), so there's really no way to distinguish this from a regular caught stealing even if you're playing out the game.

It shouldn't be recorded as a caught-stealing.

Rule 10.07(h) Comment: In those instances where a pitched ball eludes the catcher and the runner is put out trying to advance, the official scorer shall not charge any "caught stealing."

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Topic seems to be expanding to all types of base running but for a moment let's go back to the original "out trying to stretch a single to a double" and maybe include stretching to third or home. Shouldn't we be looking at OF assists per base? Sure these aren't limited to "stretching" but also include attempts to advance on a flyball but still they are real life outs per base by OF position.

OF assists, 2019 stats I found at B-R... https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...fielding.shtml

       RF    CF    LF       Total       Per game
1B   28       8    11       47            .0096 
2B   112     78    96      286            .0588
3b    52     53    42      147            .0302
H     73     65    83      221            .0454
Total                      701            .1442

B-R defines these throws as "assists where the ball was thrown to 2b as the result of a ball in play" or of course which ever base is applicable

That would be 9.52 outs at 2b per 162 games from OF assist. Approx 1 every 17 games.

Not sure how that compares to my OOTP season but I can see where it would be easy to have a long stretch of games not seeing one. You could go 34 and then get 2 in the next 5 and not see another for a month of games.

Anyway some real life 2019 numbers to consider

The game logs actually do note runners being thrown out trying to stretch hits, so with a little work I could separate those out. I'll think about it. But here's a thread I posted with raw gamelog data from the BBA online league (fictional, with, I think standard out of the box frequency settings).

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=30678

It includes a spreadsheet with raw numbers of runners who advance extra bases and runners who are thrown out.

It's my experience working with the developers for a considerably long time that they very much care about the granular accuracy of this kind of data--even if they are a bit preoccupied with PT these days. I suspect they will be tweaking things in this area in V21, if nothing else...but, of course, that depends on the feature schedule and whatnot. The leaps and bounds that this game has improved in over the years should not be discounted or under-stated, and the reason for that is that Markus and Matt have always cared about making things as "right" as they can.

[RonCo]

Note that these results will be highly dependent upon the ratings of the players who are in the specific league--which can vary heavily from league to league.

[dward1]

Originally Posted by Sweed

The post I responded to first started by saying there was blatant problems with baserunning etc and it wouldn't receive attention because of the pay to play IE PT game.


My response was

HIs response


Notice I said nothing about pbp, I mentioned accurate realistic stats and the base running model. He carried it to pbp and not modeling plays.

I do think the ball in the hole is accounted for as part of the "ton of variables" like fielding ability and arm etc. There is a percentage chance of the ball going to short, directly to or deep between 3b and ss etc, and then fielding, speed, arm abilities are figured in as the play is modeled. The game then tries to "make" a pbp and video to represent that play, it's been that way since at least rewrite after v6.5 with pbp and only recently video.

Most pbp complaints have come with the addition of video and the fact the video currently doesn't have enough options to accurately represent the actual result of the play. That's why you get the weird looking plays, IE held ground balls, doubles on a ball that looks like it should be a single. It's all a work in progress and will get better version to version. Before the addition of video the pbp was enough as we made the picture in our head of how the play would look.

Adding a new pbp module or "fixing" the pbp is not going to change any of the results, they are correct. It is only going to change the description we read or the video to better show what happened.

the results are not correct, look at this thread. base-running is wildly off

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by dward1

the results are not correct, look at this thread. base-running is wildly off

By "correct," I don't think he means "accurate." whatever that means.

I could be wrong, though.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by RonCo

By "correct," I don't think he means "accurate." whatever that means.

I could be wrong, though.

Yeah, as good a way as putting it as any

Originally Posted by dward1

the results are not correct, look at this thread. base-running is wildly off

I think there is some confusion, at least on my part, as to what you are talking about? Sometimes you say in-game engine and other times pbp model or pbp engine.

Too me the pbp engine\model, whatever you want to call it, just adds flavor to the result. Rewriting or improving is not going to change any result it's only going to paint a clearer picture.

The game engine is what will determine the result and is where any potential fix\tweak has to be made.

With that in mind...

The result of the play is correct no matter what the video shows, IE the double on a ball hit on a one hopper to the OF that looks to be a single to the eye. The pbp will show a double and no matter what is done to the pbp, more detail better description, but still a double, that won't change. It is the correct result as determined by the game engine.

Accuracy in base running and how close or far off is still to be determined. I have provided actual OF assists per base as a place to start to find the answer.
RonCo has provided some insight with his breakdown of the pbp with his script.

RonCon noted, in his linked thread, that the pbp does not note a runner trying to stretch a single to a double (unless they are thrown out), they are simply singles or doubles, so we have no idea how many times runners actually try to stretch a single to a double. Are the attempts accurate, not shown in the pbp, and just not enough being thrown out? Or are the attempts too low? Maybe it's as simple a fix as upping the frequency of this play but then what are the knock-on effects? If you add outs at 2b do runs decrease across the league? How does the engine counter that?

Originally Posted by RonCo

It's my experience working with the developers for a considerably long time is that they very much care about the granular accuracy of this kind of data--even if they are a bit per-occupied with PT these days. I suspect they will be tweaking things in this area in V21, if nothing else...but, of course, that depends on the feature schedule and whatnot. The leaps and bounds that this game has improved in over the years should not be discounted or under-stated, and the reason for that is that Markus and Matt have always cared about making things as "right" as they can.

Totally agree with this. My guess is Markus and Matt are well aware of this thread and will be looking into it for v21.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Sweed

RonCon noted, in his linked thread, that the pbp does not note a runner trying to stretch a single to a double (unless they are thrown out), they are simply singles or doubles, so we have no idea how many times runners actually try to stretch a single to a double. Are the attempts accurate, not shown in the pbp, and just not enough being thrown out? Or are the attempts too low? Maybe it's as simple a fix as upping the frequency of this play but then what are the knock-on effects? If you add outs at 2b do runs decrease across the league? How does the engine counter that?

This is not a thing that exists. Not in the statistical record, anyway. Maybe with statcast one could see that balls hit a certain way are usually singles, but occasionally a guy "stretches" it into a double.



Guys thrown out at second after a single are a certain percentage of singles. That's what the game doesn't seem to be accurately modeling.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Guys thrown out at second after a single are a certain percentage of singles. That's what the game doesn't seem to be accurately modeling.

That's probably right.

The league I'm running this script on is showing .16% of singles (.0016) have gotten thrown out stretching them into doubles. I'm pretty sure this is low, but I'd also be interested in how this number has changed over the years. I'm also pretty sure that this performance will be different from league to league depending on several variables. For someone like me, that's part of the beauty of this game--it's results can vary for many reasons--among them the talent levels in any particular league will cause it to be different from others.

Regardless, I stand by my general statement that Markus and Mall will do their best to make the results "right" as long as the data is available, and to be honest, the fact that we're discussing such issues of whether guys are stretching singles to doubles often enough is a bit of a statement in itself as to how deep and engrossing this game is.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

This is not a thing that exists. Not in the statistical record, anyway. Maybe with statcast one could see that balls hit a certain way are usually singles, but occasionally a guy "stretches" it into a double.



Guys thrown out at second after a single are a certain percentage of singles. That's what the game doesn't seem to be accurately modeling.

Exactly, not in the statistical record where in real life we know it when we see it. What we don't know is what does the OOTP engine do?

Is there a play in the engine that takes where the ball is hit, speed of runner, arm of OF and makes it a "runner advance" play and this is where we get the throw outs? Or does the engine, based on some real life data (yes, we're discussing if this data is wrong), decide this play is going to be a single and an out trying to advance?

In the first case we'll only know how many are thrown out as those that are safe are simply doubles.

In the second case there are no attempts at all just the game having a "real" number as a target. As you said a percentage of all singles. I certainly hope this is not the system as it opens it up to all players and doesn't consider speed, arm etc. Nor should the game select only fast players and have them thrown out just to satisfy a number. I would like to think it uses the same or similar system it uses to go first th third or second to home.

In either case I would think, it is a number that can be adjusted if Markus & Matt agree there is a problem.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Exactly, not in the statistical record where in real life we know it when we see it. What we don't know is what does the OOTP engine do?

Is there a play in the engine that takes where the ball is hit, speed of runner, arm of OF and makes it a "runner advance" play and this is where we get the throw outs? Or does the engine, based on some real life data (yes, we're discussing if this data is wrong), decide this play is going to be a single and an out trying to advance?

In the first case we'll only know how many are thrown out as those that are safe are simply doubles.

In the second case there are no attempts at all just the game having a "real" number as a target. As you said a percentage of all singles. I certainly hope this is not the system as it opens it up to all players and doesn't consider speed, arm etc. Nor should the game select only fast players and have them thrown out just to satisfy a number. I would like to think it uses the same or similar system it uses to go first th third or second to home.

In either case I would think, it is a number that can be adjusted if Markus & Matt agree there is a problem.

Quickly we learn why this is hard to model.

It has to happen a certain percentage of the time.

Pull a number from an orifice - 1% of singles.

But, you're right. It shouldn't must happen to a random 1%.

So, there needs to be a 1% baseline. Then add on if it's: an aggressive baserunner, a poor baserunner, a strong-armed OFer, etc
And subtract for the opposite.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

It shouldn't be recorded as a caught-stealing.

Why? That's how it is categorized by MLB so OOTP has no way of knowing how many of those were balls in the dirt that the runner got caught stealing on.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Why? That's how it is categorized by MLB so OOTP has no way of knowing how many of those were balls in the dirt that the runner got caught stealing on.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/standard-s...aught-stealing

If a runner is thrown out trying to advance on a wild pitch or a passed ball, this does not count as a caught stealing.

[Dyzalot]

OK. You learn something new every day. So it is just categorized as an assist? If so then it might be hard to parse that from other assists.