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Old 04-07-2017, 08:21 PM   #1
Beaniegoose
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How to effectively develop prospects?

Hey!

I'm having difficulty developing my younger prospects into AAA-AA ready players. Often times they lose a star or two worth of potential while moving through the ranks, and a lot of the time I'm forced to demote them to a lower level. I'm playing as the Mariners, have a high-rated head scout, have 12,000,000 devoted to player developing, and about once a month I demote/promote players. So what am I doing incorrectly?

Thanks for the help!
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Old 04-07-2017, 09:21 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaniegoose View Post
Hey!

I'm having difficulty developing my younger prospects into AAA-AA ready players. Often times they lose a star or two worth of potential while moving through the ranks, and a lot of the time I'm forced to demote them to a lower level. I'm playing as the Mariners, have a high-rated head scout, have 12,000,000 devoted to player developing, and about once a month I demote/promote players. So what am I doing incorrectly?

Thanks for the help!
My rule of thumb is once a player starts playing at a level, he stays there for the season, while there are exceptions to every rule, most players I will not shift up and down during the season. matter of fact I lock all my players to their teams. If I make any adjustments it is when the Rookie League and Short A start playing in June. This system works very well for me. Also check your MGR and Coaches, Personalities, & style as well as his personal relationships at the lower levels and see what thier traits are, doesn't do much good to have a Single A Batting coach who works well with veterans.

You really don't have enough info on a month-to-month basis from a statistical or ratings moment standpoint to make demotion/promotion decisions that often imo

Patience is a virtue when developing players, and the more info you can get, the better
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Last edited by Painmantle; 04-07-2017 at 09:22 PM.
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Old 04-07-2017, 09:28 PM   #3
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Just because a player loses potential doesn't mean you are doing it wrong. Sometimes (often times?) players don't pan out to be the monster you think they are.
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Old 04-07-2017, 09:37 PM   #4
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One thing I do... I like to check the ratings to change positions if needed. For instance, a prospect may come into the league as a CF, but does not really have the range to be a big-time player there. I identify that early and move them accordingly, allowing them to progress at a more viable position.

Also, I make sure to not move my "high priority" prospects up and down. In fact, I never move them down, and I only move them up when they are performing well or no longer developing at their current level. If I need to fill holes at a level, I use the guys who will never make it to the bigs to plug them.
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Old 04-07-2017, 09:54 PM   #5
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keep your spending up on scouting and development, you might have just mis-scouted the player on the draft board, or in the minors.

Don't feel you need to rush players, and don't panic if that 5 star potential 17 yr old becomes 3 stars at 19, just maintain the development and sometimes those numbers will pop back up later in the year. (or as above, make sure he's not out of position, maybe he was a 5 star CF prospect, but his range dropped and now he should be in RF instead)

Think of how many players are drafted every year, and how few top 10 prospects actually become anything more than an average player.
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Old 04-07-2017, 10:40 PM   #6
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Someone, maybe Orcin,had a strategy of actual playing time that determined when a guy was ready.

So 100 Innings Pitched or 200 At Bats. Basically don't rush

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Old 04-08-2017, 02:35 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgjocki View Post
Someone, maybe Orcin,had a strategy of actual playing time that determined when a guy was ready.

So 100 Innings Pitched or 200 At Bats. Basically don't rush
Could you elaborate on that? Like, if a pitcher throws 100 IP he becomes ready to move up?
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Old 04-08-2017, 03:31 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaniegoose View Post
Could you elaborate on that? Like, if a pitcher throws 100 IP he becomes ready to move up?


There's no exact science to what is right and what isn't.
The best advice is to use your best judgement and move the prospect as you see fit. Everyone has different ways they do it.


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Old 04-08-2017, 04:04 PM   #9
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Painmantle=wise. Don't let the green/red arrows bully you.

Also, talent change randomness is brutal :/

Finally, be sure to hire the best coaches you can find, if you use coaching.
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Old 04-08-2017, 05:44 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaniegoose View Post
Could you elaborate on that? Like, if a pitcher throws 100 IP he becomes ready to move up?
I used 100 IP because I want to establish an sufficient sample size in order to compare against the others pitchers on staff as well as against the pitchers at the next level.

I look at stats such as BABIP, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and FIP. I compare against the league leaders to find out if my guy is in the top 20% of the league.

The stats I absolutely don't look at are Wins, Losses and ERA as those are irrelevant in the Minors.

Now, the actual number doesn't have to be 100 IP's, it can be 50 or 75 but whatever number you pick you keep to it so you can compare across your entire organization.
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Old 04-08-2017, 06:00 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by pgjocki View Post
Now, the actual number doesn't have to be 100 IP's, it can be 50 or 75 but whatever number you pick you keep to it so you can compare across your entire organization.
I like 100 IP and 250 AB for hitters.
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Old 04-08-2017, 06:46 PM   #12
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There's no exact science to what is right and what isn't.
The best advice is to use your best judgement and move the prospect as you see fit. Everyone has different ways they do it.
^^^

Also keep in mind, that five star guy you drafted who is a three star guy in triple A will be a productive member of your big league club. As others said, be patient, acknowledge that ratings will fluctuate, and look at what the guy can do for you rather than what he can't. If you let the perfect be the enemy of the good, you'll always be disappointed.
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:02 PM   #13
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you need to base it on development... time is different for all players, so it may correlate but it will most definitely be different for each players. not saying it a bad way, just not the optimum way.

this is for the "good prospects" that you care about - whether to play or to trade or anything liek that. the 'others' i typically will not promote asap... they fill my minors and provide Wins, so i dont' have to care bout the high-potential guys making my teams weak if i bump them early. i don't abuse this, but you can easily do so and have 100 win MiL teams often... i do it more like RL. for the borderline guys time served is the key to promotions (i have service time limits fro R-AA, so this may not be important otherwise.)

everything below requires understanding baseline statistical environment of each MiL, so that you can recognize "Average" and anything above or below. if you don't have ratings you probably need to allow more time to accumulate for the stats to be useful on their own... if you have both, you can make some guesstimates that won't get you in much trouble by using a smaller sample size.

i have a rough guide in the "new to game" that is stickied... i will warn you not to use the exact figures i used, but they provide a good starting framework to work off of.

i believe most are 'minimum' for that level, not 'average'. i move asap, not all will prefer that... i wouldn't wait byond "average" for the next level though (unless lack of info forces such a decision).. so adjust anything you read there as needed and consider effect of scouting innaccuracy (i did not in that post).. be a bit more conservative to be sure about possible inaccuracy.

i love to use scouting reports... if they are trending positively, this is just one more reason to trust the ratings. if t hey are struggling to improve AND not performing well, you know they aren't ready. i rarely have to demote... unless its incredibly obvious, i will let them hang-in there and trust the ratings... most of the time this works out just fine.

sometimes they are developing really well and putting up crappy numbers... if they keep improving, nothing is wrong! do not be conerned with hof results in the mil.. care about that in the MLB.

reasons:

BA takes ~990ab... and that's assuming that they don't change (ratings / development / aging). how much error do you think ~250ab has? no add to the fact that MiL players can be significantly different in as little as 1 month... if the change is drastic enough, you have to re-start that 990ab timer to get an accurate reading.

i can find numerous RL players who batted ~.350 for 100-200 ab and then never played in the MLB after that stretch.... it's not because they got lost in the shuffle. it is because they weren't good. 100ab tells you very little info on its own. this is the whole point of understandign sample size error... not to get fooled by it... to know it's impossible to know at certain points much of anything and to accept that reality. "needs more time"

as far as pitchers, all you have to do is look at RL RP... 60-100ip and their seasons are significantly more volatile than an SP. SP 1 year stats don't tell you enough, so 60-100ip definitely won't tell you anything with certainty.

there's very little certainty, but go with what is strongest correlation first, then use side factors to verify...

e.g. if you drop scouting accuracy low enough, it may not be the strongest correlation to success. you may need to use multiple factors with even wieghts... so, this is all context of your settings.

ratings off, including individual ratings off (contact, movement etc), then you need to rely on stats and scouting reports... seasoning becomes almost necessary when compared to having ratings on. i know for certain that Normal accuracy has a signifcantly higher corerlation to results than anythign else available.. hands down, no agrugment ... empiraclly proveable oh, that assessment also requires a decent scouting budget... it doesn't have to be a Max budget, but at least as much or more than any other team and it should be gtg.

so with ratings - be aggressive, bump them as soon as they can compete. if you know the threshold well for each level relative to ratings, then you will rarely have to demote.

without: make sure that .359 at A-ball isn't a fluke... only extreme outliers should be bumped with limited sample. if league BA is ~300 and they are hitting 400 after 2 months, they are probably good to go... but not gauranteed.

above all else, do not use Ovr (or pot) for anything other than very simple tasks - like filtering. never make a decision on their current overall rating for ... well ... anything important or related to development / placement / promotions etc..

tidbit i noticed: this may make the complex incredibly inaccurate, but internation scouting budget does not influence accuracy of the jul 2nd int'l ama FA types. i don't see it affect discoveries (i still get 1-2 a decade.. in fact got 2-3 during this time of 0 budget for int'l)... i've been using 0-1% for this budget for about 10sim-seasons now and i see no real drawbacks... this makes the other 3 budgets much larger :P a great thing to do. i move players out of complex mostly due to age, and the ratings are 50/50 accurate at best even with a maxed budget for them, lol... so i just stick to age and the benefits i get from shifting that moeny around FAR outweighs any cost.

i spend alot on MiL scouting and amatuer... MLB you get more accurate ratings with smaller budgets (same with R-AAA as they progress)

alot of times when you see a pot/over drop after moving up in your MiL structure, it's not really losing anything... it's just more accurate. it can be a drop, too.. .don't get me wrong... but you only see the results not the cause... don't attribute what you see to 1 cause.

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Old 04-09-2017, 10:13 AM   #14
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I do similar, except I limit the amount of players I actually control. This has worked out for me.

On your player development screen, you get a list of your top prospects. I lock promotion/demotion for anyone in the top 200(they tell you where they rank if they are in the top 200). I maybe add in one or two other players to lock(for instance if my assistant GM doesn't think A+ needs left handed relief).

Then I do pretty much what's been said earlier, but then have my assistant GM move everyone else around. Someone goes down for two weeks in short season A, I don't want to deal with all those callups, that's what the assistant GM is for.
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Old 04-09-2017, 11:09 AM   #15
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Just to point out, and I'm not sure how well OOTP tracks real life with this, but while BA *does* that ~900 PAs to normalize, some of the components don't take nearly as long so depending on *why* a guy is hitting for a low or high BA sometimes you can figure out ahead of 200 ABs how good a player is going to be. Some of the normalization rates per FanGraphs:

Hitter strikeouts: 60 PAs
Hitter walk rate: 120 PAs

(so IOW if you have a guy with, say, 50 minor league ABs and 20 Ks, at *that point* it's probably early enough to say that he is not going to be hitting for average unless he dramatically improves his whiff rate)

Hitter single rate: 290 PAs
Hitter HR rate: 170 PAs

(Hitter XBH rate is insanely high - 1710 PAs! - so perhaps just ignore doubles and triples unless they are MASSIVE outliers, like a guy getting 5 doubles or 60 in a full season)

Slugging percentage: 320 AB
Isolated power (SLG - BA): 160 AB

Pitching K rate: 70 BF
Pitching BB rate: 170 BF
Pitching G/F rate: 70 BIP

(the other pitching stats take a loooong while, like 2 seasons+ worth of starts and even longer for relievers, to shake out. Even here though I think that the big thing to bear in mind is that for the vast majority of pitchers, BA is mostly composed of K rate, HR rate (which itself is determined strongly by G/F rate), and league/park BABIP (which you can't do much about). In other words, for lower minors guys especially you probably want to concentrate on K rate above all else - if a pitcher is missing a lot of bats, don't worry too much if he has a high ERA or is giving up a lot of hits for some reason; it's probably just bad luck)
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Old 04-09-2017, 05:55 PM   #16
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In my experience, there are different "types" of players who develop differently.

High contact, high gap power, and high avoid K with low eye and low power seem to develop at a supernatural rate. (This is obviously due to them coming out of the draft with 55+ contact and gap rates coming out of the draft, which allows them to rake from R-A+) My personal strategy for a team to rely more on contact over say power or patience due to these types of player's exponential development speeds. In most sims players who fit this criteria (when drafted out of college) make it to the majors at least before their 24th birthday. (My personal record for a player is 19 days and 200 some odd days)

This is not the same with power/patience prospects in my initial observations, power guys require much more "seasoning" for some reason. Usually they are 25-26 year olds before they hit full potential. This is why I target contact oriented players over a guy who has the potential to hit 30 home runs a season. I guess I'm a short term profit type of guy.

Now with pitchers, there is something you need to know when drafting pitchers. If their off speed pitch is sub 25 and has the potential to be an 80 then it will (for the most part) never develop and you will be stuck with a first round reliever. Yes, you will have an all star caliber reliever with 60 odd stamina, but I would expect a front of the rotation starter with my first round pick. For example, I picked a guy up in a trade who was the 6th overall pick who had 80s in stuff and movement, had 80 on his sinker and curve, but he had only 25s on his control and change up. Clearly the team took him because he had potential to hit 80 in all 3 categories and all 3 pitches. But he never developed because his control and pitch was so low at 25. I don't know why this happens it just does, some prospects just can't develop pitches no matter how long he stays in the minors.

Relievers are no brainers. Most starters outside of round 1-3 are going to be relievers, no matter how long they are in the minors. Some relievers (the two pitch monsters from round 2-5) are very quick developers. I've actually had a few develop in under a year or two due to them coming out with full 60s and 2 plus plus potential pitches.

Work ethic also plays a part too. Many players that I see who fail to develop also have either poor work ethic, low intelligence, low leadership and we're overall unmotivated and selfish. I feel these are some of the main contributors to why a lot of prospects flame out (like in real life) they go in the first round, think they are hot ****, think for themselves, act like jerks and get absolutely destroyed in the minors. Just my observation though. Hope it helps.
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Old 04-10-2017, 02:09 PM   #17
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One small thing I do that seems to help, is to add the "intelligence", "work ethic" and "leadership" fields to my view while drafting. Then after the first few rounds when all the good prospects are gone, I just sort by those and draft a lot of "good personality" guys. That way my minor leagues are stocked with players unlikely to cause chemistry issues, providing a better environment for development.
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Old 04-10-2017, 03:04 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by chazzycat View Post
One small thing I do that seems to help, is to add the "intelligence", "work ethic" and "leadership" fields to my view while drafting. Then after the first few rounds when all the good prospects are gone, I just sort by those and draft a lot of "good personality" guys. That way my minor leagues are stocked with players unlikely to cause chemistry issues, providing a better environment for development.

This is how I draft my top prospects. Assuming they have equal talent, I will always go for the College player that has a good attitude (i.e. good work ethic, good leadership skills etc.)


On a side note. I much of a difference would it make if I increased player development to about $20-$24 million (a bump from $16 million)? I personally think it would be more beneficial to invest in player development than scouting.
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Old 04-10-2017, 05:13 PM   #19
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Development? i'd say 2x baseline, then rest into scouting, if oyu have the spare money, max both, lol. always spend it all! (carry-over max cash when possible -- without any cost... don't sacrifice a good international ama FA signing, etc).

i am loving a maxed scouting budget and 0% in international budget, lol... it's wicked good info.. ~10M for MiL spending! then ~5-6M mlb, and ~7-8M amatuer. i stay near the top in spending for mlb, and i blow them out of the water in mil... and quite bit higher amatuer, too.

i would probably drop dev before scouting to 2x... then scouting a bit, then development .. etc in tiers as needed. i self-impose payroll restrictions and typically don't have to worry... but if i had to... i'd rather "see" better, though. i trade for young players, religiously. anyway, this would be tailored to how you run a team -- synergy! from the bottom-up in all ways reasonable.

---

intelligence most defintiely is a strong factor to development. (strongest of the personality types, if any other have that effect, too).

work ethic is related to maintaining things and aging. so that's important if you like to keep players past their prime, less so if you plan to trade them.

----- micro manage option?

i have 3 categories of prospects based on how i treat them... top, unsure, and crap/filler. top guys are fast-tracked almost exclusively based on ratings, unsure likely gets more seasoning. .and filler just sticks around until they cannot perform anymore - the biggest portion. (the category they fit can change as they progress, of course, it's always based in the current moment of time. facts dictate category)

I definiteyl only micromanage the "top guys".. useable or trade bait. they are shortlisted so that they stand out, visually. i will keep a close eye on them throughout the year. the unsure guys i look at for ratings changes, but less likely to promote mid-season.

sometimes i do let the AI control the rest, but i've streamlined a process for the rest to maximize winning in the minors, just in case it matters, plus ego... lol. for 5-10mins per year, i can have a winning mil system without FA-abuse or anything weird.. simply better placement of what the draft+ provides.

Lately, i do this with the filler once a year near opening day for scouting reasons...:

I place players by hand using some basic concepts that don't require much attention. i place drafted players after the draft in the same manner, of course. this is about below "borderline" quality guys, mostly. if they start to show signs or ratings change, i treat them differently at that point... things can change over time. the guys im speaking of are purely promoted based on service time limits of my MiLs R-AA. it's the biggest chunk of your minors... the decision isn't whether to promote, it's whether to release becaue tehy can't contend at next level (attrition). i use stats more significantly with these players, because i care more about thier results than their development -- provides a winning environment - good for coach reps, and i hope development. if they keep providing results, i keep them.. even if ratings don't jive.

if they are a college player or possibly a rare younger kid and start with "current ratings" above rookie / Short a, i don't place in rookie unless they are so poorly rated they will never(100% sure) reach the majors - even if their current ratting warrants a higher league. that is prime filler candidate to be promoted based on service time only. again, below -borderline guys.

if they are borderline or ~average mlb potential, i will promote a bit more based on development... but, they still take a back seat to any "top guy" mentioned above, if any bottleneck exists for playing time. but, mostly treated in a similar way with a bit more seasoning involved.

if in R/A-... maybe even A-ball is still early enough.. if i see them annihilating the competition, i will promote to see if it's a scouting error, for sure. if potential doesn't improve over 1, maybe 2 years... then i care less again. this doesn't happen nearly as often at AA with seasoning or AAA -> a severely under or overrated palyer. further along, the more integrity the ratings have.

So, easy way to do this, or apply your own evaluation methods / preferences:

Players -> Minor Leagues - list all. This ignores "top guys".. .only for the filler.

(custom view for batters/pitchers includes service time and league level)

sort by service time - mass promote appropriate players per mil level with service time limits. (radio buttons, right-click promote)

then filter by position and sort by league level... i worry less about whether they are too good for a level... i worry more about whom i should release and having enough depth at each level to handle injuries. i may deviate from service time limits for this purpose or in cases of extremely good results at current level.. but they have to be astronimically good, because that's their intended purpose.. to provide wins. at this point i know if ineed to sign anything... typically i don't due to how i draft specifically for depth after rounds 3-5+, depending on the draft. i figure it's pure luck with TCR, so, at least have depth and save time/effort later. (OR draft more of the position you want to maximize that position randomly devleoping from later rounds... an arguably better method, i'm lazy at times).

when i know a player isn't getting past a-ball due to low control or low contact, i still keep them around for dpeth, because they are good until they aren't. those players are earmarked for release, they just don't know it yet. i will let them fail first, then release, in an effort to scape the barrel for any scouting errors one last time for that player.

---------

as far as some stats having smaller samples sizes sure.. but they are typically a smaller force... avoid k's is great info to have, despite that liklihood, but it's still 1/3rd of contact (not of equal weights, of course). i think babip has largest chunk, but avoid k's is a close second.. power is smallest portion.

you learn power quickly, but in this game power rarely develops before AA-AAA-MLB.. age / level delayed compared to other ratings. it's useful to a decision to promote some players to the mlb, but not so much before then.

as long as you apply those stats to their related rating(s) in the game (even if unseen, since that's how it functions, it's wise to visualize and guesstimate a bit about them) it's an awesome level of sophistication to use. undeniably correct. consider context too... some things aren't relevant due to other factors at various times (like aspect of power development.. time-wise, by the ~MLB, it's 100% relevant again).

i use ba / era to save on the already sprawling text i write, lol... because i get too specific or detailed, lol. hmm this was a 2 paragraph reply to start.. no joke.

Last edited by NoOne; 04-10-2017 at 05:39 PM.
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Old 04-15-2017, 04:45 PM   #20
marc5477
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I think you got a lot of good replies here. But what is your expectation? In general, in the real world, its very hard, and nearly impossible to get a super star every year. You would be lucky to get one every 5-10 years. This is why they are super stars. I can usually get 1 above average player every year and usually about 2 average guys who can fill a role for a while. If you are expecting to create an all star team with your minors, then you are aiming much too high. Its unlikely to happen unless you abuse some game mechanics.

My strategy is rather simple and similar to a few others.

I use stats for promotion and very rarely do I promote within a season. I generally check stats every mid season and I might promote a guy if they are an extreme standout. I did change all my minor league schedules so that I dont have to go back and forth often. I set all my leagues to have the all star game about the same time. This is when I go and check.

Although I use scouting, I set them to very low so I dont put much weight into the rating except during the draft. Its been my experience (since I started playing this game several years ago) that HS and Col stats are totally worthless. I have never seen a huge correlation between them and future performance. Its just as likely to have some guy with high ratings become a star as it is to have a high school standout become a star. So I stopped trying. But stats definitely matter once they are in the minors and I have noticed that standouts definitely can and do excel if you promote them so there is a definite correlation there.
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